2023: Continued dead cap hell (Currently $54 Million)

[Procus 5,907]

I thought given the Bradberry signing, it was worth revisiting this thread.  Apparently, with a starting QB under a rookie contract, Howie was able to make some moves to upgrade the roster.  If we don't hit a wall like we did in 2020, the cap should increase in future years, mitigating cap problems in the future for many teams.

[Vortex 66]

There is all kinds of brilliance in this thread that would entertaining to revisit 🤣

[paco 43,743]

On 5/18/2022 at 8:24 PM, Vortex said:

There is all kinds of brilliance in this thread that would entertaining to revisit 🤣

Such as?

[PoconoDon 18,588]

When it's all said and done, it appears that, in general, the NFL hard cap is as soft as Cindy Jones...

[downundermike 35,740]

On 5/18/2022 at 2:47 PM, Procus said:

I thought given the Bradberry signing, it was worth revisiting this thread.  Apparently, with a starting QB under a rookie contract, Howie was able to make some moves to upgrade the roster.  If we don't hit a wall like we did in 2020, the cap should increase in future years, mitigating cap problems in the future for many teams.

Not entirely correct.

Currently the Eagles are over the 2023 cap.  

2024 the Eagles have 23.5  million in cap space ( based on the projected cap being 256 million ) with 37 players under contract.

If Hurts is the answer, you are then having to pay him big dollars, and you need replacements for the following players.

Kelce ( Cam Jurgens potential replacement )

Slay and Bradberry ( based on the Bradberry signing, Eagles not comfortable with any of the current corners no the roster )

Graham and Barnett ( Sweat and ??? )

Seumalo ( no one has really stepped up from the group of back ups yet )

Harris and Epps ( safety thin and none of the backups appear they will ever be starters )

In regards to the bolded, all of the projections are based on widely reported expectations of the cap, 2024 is projected to be 256 million, and the actual number will be quite close.  This idea that the cap is just going to magically be way higher than expected is just not smart, they have projections and they are correct.

[Procus 5,907]

3 hours ago, downundermike said:

Not entirely correct.

Currently the Eagles are over the 2023 cap.  

2024 the Eagles have 23.5  million in cap space ( based on the projected cap being 256 million ) with 37 players under contract.

If Hurts is the answer, you are then having to pay him big dollars, and you need replacements for the following players.

Kelce ( Cam Jurgens potential replacement )

Slay and Bradberry ( based on the Bradberry signing, Eagles not comfortable with any of the current corners no the roster )

Graham and Barnett ( Sweat and ??? )

Seumalo ( no one has really stepped up from the group of back ups yet )

Harris and Epps ( safety thin and none of the backups appear they will ever be starters )

In regards to the bolded, all of the projections are based on widely reported expectations of the cap, 2024 is projected to be 256 million, and the actual number will be quite close.  This idea that the cap is just going to magically be way higher than expected is just not smart, they have projections and they are correct.

So @downundermike, how fluid would you say the cap ceiling is over the next couple of years - are the numbers based primarily on fixed income, or are there other significant variable sources of income as well?

[downundermike 35,740]

6 minutes ago, Procus said:

So @downundermike, how fluid would you say the cap ceiling is over the next couple of years - are the numbers based primarily on fixed income, or are there other significant variable sources of income as well?

When they project the cap, they are usually very close.  Next years cap is all but set at 225 million, and the following year projection of 256 million is projected based on the TV deals.  The final number will come in close, but it will not out of the blue change from 256 to 280 million.

[Hawkeye 5,412]

16 minutes ago, downundermike said:

When they project the cap, they are usually very close.  Next years cap is all but set at 225 million, and the following year projection of 256 million is projected based on the TV deals.  The final number will come in close, but it will not out of the blue change from 256 to 280 million.

I've seen projections that say the cap will be at or above $300 million by 2027.  As long as revenue continues to rise, so will the cap.  And so will player salaries across the board. 

[downundermike 35,740]

3 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

I've seen projections that say the cap will be at or above $300 million by 2027.  As long as revenue continues to rise, so will the cap.  And so will player salaries across the board. 

Does not change the cap limitations the Eagles have the next two years.  2025, lets just venture a guess the cap jumps from 256 the previous year, to say 275 million.

Currently, the Eagles already have 125 million, 45% of that 275 million on the books for 8 players.  They have 150 million left to fill the other 45 spots on the roster.

[UK_EaglesFan89 21,166]

1 hour ago, downundermike said:

Does not change the cap limitations the Eagles have the next two years.  2025, lets just venture a guess the cap jumps from 256 the previous year, to say 275 million.

Currently, the Eagles already have 125 million, 45% of that 275 million on the books for 8 players.  They have 150 million left to fill the other 45 spots on the roster.

And you're assuming they don't make any moves to change that. At this point I think Howie has the cap covered. I don't like how he does it but he's got it covered. 

[dawkins4prez 1,837]

After watching the Saints sign multiple big money FA's this offseason, I will never buy into these threads ever again.  They were 60m+ deep into cap hell...

[Talonblood 3,314]

It ain't my money, so I don't care. 🤣

[paco 43,743]

13 hours ago, dawkins4prez said:

After watching the Saints sign multiple big money FA's this offseason, I will never buy into these threads ever again.  They were 60m+ deep into cap hell...

Well, they did have to restructure pretty much EVERYONE to get under and make a few moves.  Their cap looks very similar to ours the past two years:

 

See how pretty much everyone can't be cut with a negative cap hit?  That's how you know you have restructured to the hilt.

 

And they are going to have to do it again next year, being $58 million over with only 55 players signed.  The one thing they got going for them is they aren't paying a QB big $$$.

 

As for signings, unless I'm mistaken, they didn't sign "multiple big money guys".  They did the 2021 Howie route.  Lots of cheap one year deals plus for their one "big" splash (Marcus Maye, $28.5 million), peanuts spent cap wise this year and backload it with void years. 

They were pretty reserved in FA, large in part due to their cap situation. (Very similar to ours last year)

[paco 43,743]

Speaking of cap flexibility, I'll have to find that one tweet someone posted a while back in another thread.  Basically, it showed, at that point in time, current cap space and what the max cap space a team *could* have if they aggressively restructured everyone. If memory serves me correct, we were middle of the road cap wise with, by far, the smallest potential for additional cap room.

 

I was curious what the current roster looks like from that perspective (I'm an old tired dad now and don't get to obsess like I use to) and, yeah, I'd say that tweet was fairly accurate

 

Edit:  Found the tweet in question:

  

On 2/24/2022 at 4:02 PM, OCEaglefan said:

Oh

 

 

[paco 43,743]

One last post

[Iggles_Phan 47,851]

32 minutes ago, paco said:

One last post

Reminds me of the Desean Jackson scenario for the Eagles in 2021.   He cost the Eagles more on the cap than he cost the Rams and Raiders combined.

[mihailo 2,893]

14 hours ago, Talonblood said:

It ain't my money, so I don't care. 🤣

Maybe you would care if they gave 80% of the cap to Hurts and are left with a bunch of scrubs with little talent  

I don't think anyone cares about the money itself, rather fans care about how the teams allocate and utilise limited resources.

Anyway, Howie seems to know what he is doing and always manages to dig the Eagles out from a hole. Until he fails to do that, I am not concerned. One day it may bite the Eagles in the butt, but what is the worse case scenario? Having to cut/trade/lose a few players and not bring in new FAs for a season or two?

[paco 43,743]

16 minutes ago, mihailo said:

Maybe you would care if they gave 80% of the cap to Hurts and are left with a bunch of scrubs with little talent  

I don't think anyone cares about the money itself, rather fans care about how the teams allocate and utilise limited resources.

Anyway, Howie seems to know what he is doing and always manages to dig the Eagles out from a hole. Until he fails to do that, I am not concerned. One day it may bite the Eagles in the butt, but what is the worse case scenario? Having to cut/trade/lose a few players and not bring in new FAs for a season or two?

That.  There can also be other symptoms, such as being forced to hold on to an older, ineffective player who is eating up a huge chunk of space but can't cut him because he would take up too much extra space.  Think Alshon's final hurrah.

 

The biggest Doomsday scenario that could occur is if a CBA doesn't get extended or TV contracts flatline.  Not likely, but we've (well, not us, but other teams) seen close calls in the past like in 2006 when the CBA expired and new agreement wasn't reached by the deadline.  Cap aggressive teams were forced to conditionally cut a lot of players.  (The cuts were reversed once the CBA got extended a while later)

[Bwestbrook36 14,909]

Better update this to cap hell 2023... This year's hell didn't work out

[paco 43,743]

32 minutes ago, Bwestbrook36 said:

Better update this to cap hell 2023... This year's hell didn't work out

  

On 9/21/2020 at 11:09 AM, paco said:

 

What does this mean?  Well, assuming 1) everyone lives out their contract and 2) there is no further restructuring, in 2022 we are looking at a $45 MILLION DOLLAR DEAD CAP HIT.  

Actual: $42,393,396  ($36,454,161 + $5,939,235 (Brandon Brooks)  (I may be missing another post June 1 cut) @downundermike? )

 

I dunno, looks like I pretty much nailed it. 

 

Or are you asking to start talking about the 2023 dead cap hit?  Even more dead cap was pushed to 2023 so I'm happy to have that conversation as well.

[Talonblood 3,314]

1 hour ago, mihailo said:

Maybe you would care if they gave 80% of the cap to Hurts and are left with a bunch of scrubs with little talent  

I don't think anyone cares about the money itself, rather fans care about how the teams allocate and utilise limited resources.

Anyway, Howie seems to know what he is doing and always manages to dig the Eagles out from a hole. Until he fails to do that, I am not concerned. One day it may bite the Eagles in the butt, but what is the worse case scenario? Having to cut/trade/lose a few players and not bring in new FAs for a season or two?

I hear ya. I just don't care about the cap. At all.

[downundermike 35,740]

16 minutes ago, paco said:

  

Actual: $42,393,396  ($36,454,161 + $5,939,235 (Brandon Brooks)  (I may be missing another post June 1 cut) @downundermike? )

 

I dunno, looks like I pretty much nailed it. 

 

Or are you asking to start talking about the 2023 dead cap hit?  Even more dead cap was pushed to 2023 so I'm happy to have that conversation as well.

OTC is still not showing the dead cap hit for the original Fletcher Cox contract.  I am sure all those numbers will be figured out after June 1.

[paco 43,743]

2 minutes ago, downundermike said:

OTC is still not showing the dead cap hit for the original Fletcher Cox contract.  I am sure all those numbers will be figured out after June 1.

Gotcha.  I knew there had to be something still out there because the guesstimate I had last month was higher.

[Iggles_Phan 47,851]

20 minutes ago, Talonblood said:

I hear ya. I just don't care about the cap. At all.

Then why open a thread dedicated to discussing the cap?   

[Talonblood 3,314]

3 hours ago, Iggles_Phan said:

Then why open a thread dedicated to discussing the cap?   

None of your business- I was talking to you.