Shalodeep Posted July 19, 2022 Share Posted July 19, 2022 4 hours ago, brkmsn said: Really? How many? What percentage? Couldn't find quarters, but he rushed for 408 in losses so 52% If you look at this some of these splits, you can see that over half of his scoring was done trailing and a good concentration of it was also in the fourth quarter. That's where the narrative of junk time stats come from. He starts the games well, falls to hell 2nd and 3rd quarter so the opponent gets a big lead, and then they run out the clock allowing him to pick up junk stats. He has almost double the passing yards while trailing which extra yardage while trailing is expected on a 9-7 team, that lopsided.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brkmsn Posted July 19, 2022 Share Posted July 19, 2022 3 hours ago, Shalodeep said: Couldn't find quarters, but he rushed for 408 in losses so 52% If you look at this some of these splits, you can see that over half of his scoring was done trailing and a good concentration of it was also in the fourth quarter. That's where the narrative of junk time stats come from. He starts the games well, falls to hell 2nd and 3rd quarter so the opponent gets a big lead, and then they run out the clock allowing him to pick up junk stats. He has almost double the passing yards while trailing which extra yardage while trailing is expected on a 9-7 team, that lopsided.... First of all, it doesn't matter if we are winning or losing. A majority of Matthew Stafford's stats came in losses. That doesn't mean a majority came against the prevent defense or in garbage time. Your 52% number doesn't even come close to being relevant to my follow up question. Specifically, I was asking for proof of the claim that "a lot of those rushing yards came with 4th quarter prevent defense." Hurts' rushing by quarter: 1st -- 21-114 (5.4) 2nd -- 42-247 (5.9) 3rd -- 39-241 (6.2) 4th -- 37-182 (4.9) Then there's this little nugget: Split Value Cmp Att Inc Cmp% Yds TD 1D Int Rate Sk Yds Y/A AY/A Att Yds Y/A TD 1D Game Situation Leading, < 2 min to go 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9 -7 -0.8 0 1 Leading, < 4 min to go 1 2 1 50.00 17 0 1 0 79.2 0 0 8.5 8.50 9 -7 -0.8 0 1 Trailing, < 2 min to go 13 24 11 54.17 116 1 6 0 81.3 1 -6 4.8 5.67 2 14 7.0 0 1 Trailing, < 4 min to go 19 32 13 59.38 200 3 12 0 108.9 1 -6 6.3 8.13 4 22 5.5 1 2 So he has 4 rushes for 22 yards, 2 first downs and a TD when trailing with 4 minutes to go. I think this kind of proves that the statement: 9 hours ago, downundermike said: A lot of those rushing yards came with 4th quarter prevent defense ... is completely false and made up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shalodeep Posted July 19, 2022 Share Posted July 19, 2022 49 minutes ago, brkmsn said: First of all, it doesn't matter if we are winning or losing. A majority of Matthew Stafford's stats came in losses. That doesn't mean a majority came against the prevent defense or in garbage time. Your 52% number doesn't even come close to being relevant to my follow up question. Specifically, I was asking for proof of the claim that "a lot of those rushing yards came with 4th quarter prevent defense." Hurts' rushing by quarter: 1st -- 21-114 (5.4) 2nd -- 42-247 (5.9) 3rd -- 39-241 (6.2) 4th -- 37-182 (4.9) Then there's this little nugget: Split Value Cmp Att Inc Cmp% Yds TD 1D Int Rate Sk Yds Y/A AY/A Att Yds Y/A TD 1D Game Situation Leading, < 2 min to go 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9 -7 -0.8 0 1 Leading, < 4 min to go 1 2 1 50.00 17 0 1 0 79.2 0 0 8.5 8.50 9 -7 -0.8 0 1 Trailing, < 2 min to go 13 24 11 54.17 116 1 6 0 81.3 1 -6 4.8 5.67 2 14 7.0 0 1 Trailing, < 4 min to go 19 32 13 59.38 200 3 12 0 108.9 1 -6 6.3 8.13 4 22 5.5 1 2 So he has 4 rushes for 22 yards, 2 first downs and a TD when trailing with 4 minutes to go. I think this kind of proves that the statement: ... is completely false and made up. All you proved with this is why he is hot garbage in the second and third quarter and why his fourth quarter passing stats are extremely inflated. He becomes a back up running back and puts us so far behind that he collects passing yards in the fourth when the other team is preparing to go home. He actually can't run to bring us back, so I guess in that small section of the Hurts narrative, you are correct. He sucks so bad that he can't use his only asset when it's crunch time.... congrats Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shalodeep Posted July 19, 2022 Share Posted July 19, 2022 Compare his splits to a similar but much better version of his playing style with Murray. Far more balanced with the halves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted July 19, 2022 Share Posted July 19, 2022 2 hours ago, brkmsn said: ... is completely false and made up. Let me clarify, second half, not just 4th quarter. @Shalodeep I just looked at a couple of games real quick, taking these 4 drives in these games that were over, Hurts had 12% of his rushing yardage. I could probably dive in a deeper and analyze all the yardage in games that were over, but I think I have more than made my point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shalodeep Posted July 19, 2022 Share Posted July 19, 2022 3 minutes ago, downundermike said: Let me clarify, second half, not just 4th quarter. @Shalodeep I just looked at a couple of games real quick, taking these 4 drives in these games that were over, Hurts had 12% of his rushing yardage. I could probably dive in a deeper and analyze all the yardage in games that were over, but I think I have more than made my point. You mean the deeper you dive into this, the worse he actually gets.??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eagle45 Posted July 19, 2022 Share Posted July 19, 2022 14 hours ago, brkmsn said: Hurts had 9.3 rushes per game. I'd like to see that number reduced to around 6 and the pass attempts to increase. If that happens and his completion percentage increases 3-4%, I think the results would be pretty positive. I don't want to see us abandon the run, though. This team should continue to be a top 5 rushing offense. It would also be nice if we were "running" the clock out with more than a 1-score lead late in games. But I absolutely believe the Eagles need to establish the passing game as a viable threat to opposing defenses. Last year, we didn't do that. We can't continue to run the same exact offense as last season. As good as we are at running, we'd be even more efficient if teams were worried about our passing game too. What we did last year was fine for last year. We figured out our strengths. Now we need to expand and improve in the other areas. - The passing game was not a viable threat to opposing defenses. - The offense we ran was not acceptable. - Teams were not worried about our passing game. - Passing was not a strength. These are your words. I agree with them. How can you say these things and be OK with the QB? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shalodeep Posted July 19, 2022 Share Posted July 19, 2022 25 minutes ago, eagle45 said: - The passing game was not a viable threat to opposing defenses. - The offense we ran was not acceptable. - Teams were not worried about our passing game. - Passing was not a strength. These are your words. I agree with them. How can you say these things and be OK with the QB? Nail meet coffin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vileborg Posted July 19, 2022 Share Posted July 19, 2022 Some people have the ability to turn it up when the chips are down. For familiarity, let's call it the BDN syndrome. Hurts has not shown that. He has not shown the ability to walk the edge of perfection when called upon. Nick can flip a switch and become clutch AF. In the same situation, Hurts didn't seem to be able to get out of his own way. All this arguing about whether he is better and how much better will he get hits a wall when his ceiling is Dak Prescott because he hasn't shown the ability to be clutch. He'll get another year to show it and I hope he does but it hasn't manifested so far. He got benched in the NC and he went 0-for in our playoff game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted July 19, 2022 Share Posted July 19, 2022 On 7/18/2022 at 1:54 PM, Shalodeep said: I can't wait for camp where he isn't the only viable answer at QB and people look around the room like...oh yeah .... Hurts is the starting quarterback this year no matter what happens in camp. The Eagles have stacked the deck this offseason to set him up for success. And if he flops, the Eagles will be a very attractive destination for a free agent. Problem with that is, the top free in 2023 - currently - is Jimmy Garoppolo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shalodeep Posted July 19, 2022 Share Posted July 19, 2022 26 minutes ago, Hawkeye said: Hurts is the starting quarterback this year no matter what happens in camp. The Eagles have stacked the deck this offseason to set him up for success. And if he flops, the Eagles will be a very attractive destination for a free agent. Problem with that is, the top free in 2023 - currently - is Jimmy Garoppolo. I just threw up a bit in my mouth So say he fails (again hope that doesn't happen) do we just draft a replacement next year or give minshew and strong a chance to fight it out. I personally think if we fail, there are a few guys in this draft I wouldn't mind seeing in eagles green Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MF POON Posted July 19, 2022 Share Posted July 19, 2022 14 minutes ago, Shalodeep said: I just threw up a bit in my mouth So say he fails (again hope that doesn't happen) do we just draft a replacement next year or give minshew and strong a chance to fight it out. I personally think if we fail, there are a few guys in this draft I wouldn't mind seeing in eagles green I don't think Minshew is better than Jimmy G., but I'd rather draft a QB and roll with Mr. Stache than sign Jimmy for a big contract Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thrive Posted July 19, 2022 Share Posted July 19, 2022 1 hour ago, Shalodeep said: I just threw up a bit in my mouth So say he fails (again hope that doesn't happen) do we just draft a replacement next year or give minshew and strong a chance to fight it out. I personally think if we fail, there are a few guys in this draft I wouldn't mind seeing in eagles green Generally speaking, if he fails, I think we are probably screwed unless the team is equally putrid. Otherwise, this roster is probably good enough with a bad Jalen Hurts to win 7 games, which means we probably won’t be in position to draft the QB we want, even with that extra first round pick. Unless Strong shows something, you’re stuck having to use 2023 to get in position to draft a QB in 2024. If he fails, the hope is that the entire team fails as well so that we can quickly pivot and rebuild. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shalodeep Posted July 19, 2022 Share Posted July 19, 2022 18 minutes ago, Thrive said: Generally speaking, if he fails, I think we are probably screwed unless the team is equally putrid. Otherwise, this roster is probably good enough with a bad Jalen Hurts to win 7 games, which means we probably won’t be in position to draft the QB we want, even with that extra first round pick. Unless Strong shows something, you’re stuck having to use 2023 to get in position to draft a QB in 2024. If he fails, the hope is that the entire team fails as well so that we can quickly pivot and rebuild. This was one of the fears I expressed before. The team can drag a below average QB to 7 with the schedule and the potential defense and Jalen could have 2-3 hot games to get it to 8-9 and we are in the same spot. Then it's do you roll the dice again or try something odd the bench. I think training camp will cause more noise than our opinions now...I think Hurts having the camp solo last year helped him a lot with the fan base accepting him as QB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shalodeep Posted July 19, 2022 Share Posted July 19, 2022 1 hour ago, MF POON said: I don't think Minshew is better than Jimmy G., but I'd rather draft a QB and roll with Mr. Stache than sign Jimmy for a big contract Stache and maybe whatever QB drops to the top of the second round Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eagle45 Posted July 19, 2022 Share Posted July 19, 2022 32 minutes ago, Thrive said: Generally speaking, if he fails, I think we are probably screwed unless the team is equally putrid. Otherwise, this roster is probably good enough with a bad Jalen Hurts to win 7 games, which means we probably won’t be in position to draft the QB we want, even with that extra first round pick. Unless Strong shows something, you’re stuck having to use 2023 to get in position to draft a QB in 2024. If he fails, the hope is that the entire team fails as well so that we can quickly pivot and rebuild. The best way to have a sustained winner is to get lucky at qb with a non franchise draining investment. Whether it’s extreme examples like Brady or the Saints nabbing Brees or simply already well-built teams getting superstars later in round 1 like Packers with Rodgers and Chiefs with Mahomes, that’s the way to go. Teams losing or trading their way to #1 overall usually won’t have enough of a foundation. As anti-Hurts as I am, that’s a reason to give guys like Hurts and Carson Strong a shot. If one of them turns into a stud and you use qb resources on other positions, it nearly guarantees a super bowl. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mike030270 Posted July 19, 2022 Share Posted July 19, 2022 23 minutes ago, Shalodeep said: This was one of the fears I expressed before. The team can drag a below average QB to 7 with the schedule and the potential defense and Jalen could have 2-3 hot games to get it to 8-9 and we are in the same spot. Then it's do you roll the dice again or try something odd the bench. I think training camp will cause more noise than our opinions now...I think Hurts having the camp solo last year helped him a lot with the fan base accepting him as QB. I feel like if he doesn't improve at passing then Lurie will have Howie go for a QB in 2023 Also I can't see how they'd spend that kind of money at WR and let Hurts run for 1000yds or something Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shalodeep Posted July 19, 2022 Share Posted July 19, 2022 6 minutes ago, Mike030270 said: I feel like if he doesn't improve at passing then Lurie will have Howie go for a QB in 2023 Also I can't see how they'd spend that kind of money at WR and let Hurts run for 1000yds or something I have hurts 3400 22/12 62% 600 6td. Right below keepable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brkmsn Posted July 19, 2022 Share Posted July 19, 2022 9 hours ago, Shalodeep said: All you proved with this is why he is hot garbage in the second and third quarter and why his fourth quarter passing stats are extremely inflated. He becomes a back up running back and puts us so far behind that he collects passing yards in the fourth when the other team is preparing to go home. He actually can't run to bring us back, so I guess in that small section of the Hurts narrative, you are correct. He sucks so bad that he can't use his only asset when it's crunch time.... congrats lol. It's fun watching you guys get mad about truth and then make something else up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brkmsn Posted July 19, 2022 Share Posted July 19, 2022 7 hours ago, eagle45 said: - The passing game was not a viable threat to opposing defenses. - The offense we ran was not acceptable. - Teams were not worried about our passing game. - Passing was not a strength. These are your words. I agree with them. How can you say these things and be OK with the QB? When I watched Trent Cole in his rookie preseason, I saw a guy that was undersized for a 4-3 DE that projected to best fit as a 3-4 OLB... I saw a guy that was extremely productive as a 4-3 DE despite his projection. It was against 2nd and 3rd string offenses, but he showed flashes. It was apparent after that preseason that if he worked hard to put on some weight and work on his technique, that he would become a very good DE. I saw a veteran version of Tim Tebow come in and compete for a backup QB spot on this team. I thought, "Hey ... maybe a simple offense like Chip Kelly ran might be a career saver for him." Then I watched Tebow in the preseason and it went from bad to worse. Tebow was a hard worker, a high character guy, and ultra competitive. Those are good traits for a teammate if he can fill a role on the team. Because of those qualities he had a small fan base pulling for him. Some were quick to say, "the Eagles didn't give him a chance." I say that's BS. The Eagles signed him and gave him the preseason to make an impression. When it came time to pass, he was pretty bad. Probably the only other QB I can remember being as consistently bad in an entire preseason was Thorson. As for Hurts, he has shown flashes of greatness in real NFL games. He has also shown improvement (my opinion). Clearly he's not a finished product, but as long as improvement is a constant with him, I'm confident he can develop into a very good QB. In the meantime, if someone beats Hurts out for the Eagles' starting QB position, I'll throw my support behind that guy. I just don't understand the thought process behind the people that want to go all in with some other guy (like Strong) who hasn't done a single thing in the NFL. The people that want to move on from Hurts don't believe he can be the guy. That's fine, but what makes anybody so sure that the next guy isn't the next Hoying or Thorson? If Hurts is a liability and Strong is destined for greatness, we will find out when we see them play games. Brady's career started because of an injury to Bledsoe. Kurt Warner's career began because of an injury to Trent Green. When a player gets his opportunity, he needs to make the most of it. Right now, Hurts is getting the opportunity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brkmsn Posted July 19, 2022 Share Posted July 19, 2022 8 hours ago, Shalodeep said: You mean the deeper you dive into this, the worse he actually gets.??? again ... lol @ the theatrics Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted July 20, 2022 Share Posted July 20, 2022 2 hours ago, Shalodeep said: I have hurts 3400 22/12 62% 600 6td. Right below keepable Might be light on the running part but your point is well taken. Problem is a decent - but not good to great - season leaves them in the middle of the draft pack and we've already established it's a down year for free agents. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shalodeep Posted July 20, 2022 Share Posted July 20, 2022 2 hours ago, brkmsn said: again ... lol @ the theatrics Average is 16-17 range and he is in the 20s in most QB stats until you cherry pick. It's not theatrics to say....hey up to this point he sucks. Everyone ranked underneath him are journeyman, scabs, or guys looking to be replaced. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted July 20, 2022 Share Posted July 20, 2022 6 hours ago, Hawkeye said: Hurts is the starting quarterback this year no matter what happens in camp. The Eagles have stacked the deck this offseason to set him up for success. And if he flops, the Eagles will be a very attractive destination for a free agent. Problem with that is, the top free in 2023 - currently - is Jimmy Garoppolo. Eagles will not go FA QB. They will draft one of the top QB’s, or trade for one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shalodeep Posted July 20, 2022 Share Posted July 20, 2022 32 minutes ago, Hawkeye said: Might be light on the running part but your point is well taken. Problem is a decent - but not good to great - season leaves them in the middle of the draft pack and we've already established it's a down year for free agents. And the debate will continue because he threw 6 more TDS and for more yards so....growth? I'm just glad the training camp is a week away and we can see some film. I know camp isnt the best place...but we need something else to talk about because this conversation has been beat to death with the information we have. What I proposed is him getting 4k of total yardage and 28 touchdowns with a few more turnovers. For some that's great...for me with the offense on this team, that's just not good enough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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