DeVonta Smith (Alabama WR) -- DRAFTED BY EAGLES #10!

[Cochis_Calhoun]

31 minutes ago, PoconoDon said:

Smith has everything you want in a WR prospect except the body mass to suggest he will survive the physicality at the pro level. It's his only drawback. If he were 195 -205 lbs., you could pick him without a care in the world. As it is, at 175 lbs., I worry for him. He has a Todd Pinkston build and that's a potentially a big problem.

Randy Moss was built like a twig, so is Robby Anderson, Antonio Brown was 5'10 and 181lbs, TY Hilton is 5'9 and 180.  Disregarding proven production at the highest College level for other metrics is how you end up picking Reagor over Jefferson.

[UK_EaglesFan89]

1 hour ago, Cochis_Calhoun said:

Randy Moss was built like a twig, so is Robby Anderson, Antonio Brown was 5'10 and 181lbs, TY Hilton is 5'9 and 180.  Disregarding proven production at the highest College level for other metrics is how you end up picking Reagor over Jefferson.

Though to be fair Chase has pretty incredible production too bud. I do agree with your general point though. 

[PoconoDon]

4 hours ago, Cochis_Calhoun said:

Randy Moss was built like a twig, so is Robby Anderson, Antonio Brown was 5'10 and 181lbs, TY Hilton is 5'9 and 180.  Disregarding proven production at the highest College level for other metrics is how you end up picking Reagor over Jefferson.

There's a big difference in build when you're 5'09" or 5'10" tall and 180-ish lbs than if you are 6'01" and 175 lbs. it's not just the weight it's how skinny the guy is that creates cause for concern. Skinny guys are usually weaklings in the NFL and get injured a lot. Maybe he'll be fine and maybe he'll be an early 1st round pick who turns into a part time player like D-Jax with a limited route tree. Like I said, I think it's a legit concern. Randy Moss was 6'04" and 210 lbs. Big difference.

NFL defenders are gonna hit multiple times harder than the college kids he's faced. Remember what 5'09" 180 lb. Ricky Manning Jr. did to string bean Pinkston by jamming and throwing him down at the LOS? To the eye, Smith has the exact same build. Hopefully he'll overcome what Todd could not and have a great career. Ignoring that physical deficiency is how you select a Pinkston.

[The Holy Vagabond]

Randy Moss was 6’4 194 at the time of the draft. Smith has got about 15-20 lbs to go to reach that "twig”. 

[kentwo]

In the post-title game podcast, Kiper and McShay compare Smith to Marvin Harrison. In size, talent, and football IQ. 

Smith seems to be a real special player, runs good routes, attacks the ball, good speed, gets separation, understands how to get leverage on CBs, and isn't afraid to catch balls over the middle. 

Chase and Smith both seem like high level WRs. I just hope Howie doesn't Howie it up. 

[Infam]

10 hours ago, The Holy Vagabond said:

Randy Moss was 6’4 194 at the time of the draft. Smith has got about 15-20 lbs to go to reach that "twig”. 

well, at least ten sounds.. doable. Elite players can add some weight in the NFL.

[Cochis_Calhoun]

10 hours ago, The Holy Vagabond said:

Randy Moss was 6’4 194 at the time of the draft. Smith has got about 15-20 lbs to go to reach that "twig”. 

Cut a 4 inch thick slice of your torso, how much you think it weighs?  Randy Moss BMI was 24.4, Smith's is 23.9 or something.

The thing about BMI and predicting success is it seems to be based on the bare numbers as a proportion of successful players and not on what proportion of WR's drafted actually have a BMI under 27 (which is the usual cut off point for these 'studies')?

The bare numbers tell one story but if the low number of under 27 BMI players represents 60% of the number of lower BMI players drafted, while the higher number of players with a BMI over 27 who make it only represents 50% of the number drafted then statistically lower BMI players are a better bet.

For an indicator of how reliable a predictor BMI was in last years draft,  Lamb, Higgins, Jeudy and Jefferson were below 27,  Reagor wasn't. 

Jerry Rice and Marvin Harrison both had a BMI under 25.

Like I say sometimes you overthink the metrics.

[time2rock]

20 hours ago, Cochis_Calhoun said:

Randy Moss was built like a twig, so is Robby Anderson, Antonio Brown was 5'10 and 181lbs, TY Hilton is 5'9 and 180.  Disregarding proven production at the highest College level for other metrics is how you end up picking Reagor over Jefferson.

JJ's overall numbers were actually slightly better than Reagor's.  

• Jefferson: 165 rec / 2415 yds / 14.6 avg / 24 TDs
• Reagor: 148 rec / 2248 yds / 22.2 avg / 22 TDs

JJ compiled those over 2 years while Reagor's production was over 3.  

[Infam]

3 hours ago, Cochis_Calhoun said:

Cut a 4 inch thick slice of your torso, how much you think it weighs?  Randy Moss BMI was 24.4, Smith's is 23.9 or something.

The thing about BMI and predicting success is it seems to be based on the bare numbers as a proportion of successful players and not on what proportion of WR's drafted actually have a BMI under 27 (which is the usual cut off point for these 'studies')?

The bare numbers tell one story but if the low number of under 27 BMI players represents 60% of the number of lower BMI players drafted, while the higher number of players with a BMI over 27 who make it only represents 50% of the number drafted then statistically lower BMI players are a better bet.

For an indicator of how reliable a predictor BMI was in last years draft,  Lamb, Higgins, Jeudy and Jefferson were below 27,  Reagor wasn't. 

Jerry Rice and Marvin Harrison both had a BMI under 25.

Like I say sometimes you overthink the metrics.

What the... that response was based on facts. Get the f.. out of here! 😁👍

[time2rock]

Smith refuses to be weighed and measured at Senior Bowl. 

https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2021/01/26/devonta-smith-declines-to-be-weighed-and-measured-at-the-senior-bowl/

[kentwo]

Sounds more like Smith to the Dolphins is the play. Tua needs someone to get open that he trusts, so Smith would fit that need.

[Ray75]

https://www.nfl.com/news/daniel-jeremiah-s-top-50-2021-nfl-draft-prospect-rankings-1-0

[PoconoDon]

My gut says pass on Jack Skeleton. 

[nipples]

18 hours ago, kentwo said:

Sounds more like Smith to the Dolphins is the play. Tua needs someone to get open that he trusts, so Smith would fit that need.

It would really shake things up if that happens. That would mean Sewell, Chase and Fields all available for picks 3-6... i know it sounds like the Eagles are sticking with Wentz but it would be tough for me to pass on Fields if he was sitting there at 6. 

[time2rock]

3 hours ago, nipples said:

It would really shake things up if that happens. That would mean Sewell, Chase and Fields all available for picks 3-6... i know it sounds like the Eagles are sticking with Wentz but it would be tough for me to pass on Fields if he was sitting there at 6. 

Miami picks 3.  Jets 2.  I think if they (Jets) don't go QB they take Sewell.

[nipples]

25 minutes ago, time2rock said:

Miami picks 3.  Jets 2.  I think if they (Jets) don't go QB they take Sewell.

Miami would likely go either Chase or Sewell, probably Sewell but could be either. I do think Atlanta then takes Fields, and Cinci lands Chase in that scenario.... which now that I think about it, would kind of screw the Eagles. I’m not super high on Surtain in that spot, and frankly I just don’t value LB highly enough to take Parsons there. 
 

So let’s just hope the Jets either take Fields or Sewell. If that happens it’s a damn good chance either Chase or Smith are there at 6. 

[EricAllenPick6]

22 hours ago, kentwo said:

Sounds more like Smith to the Dolphins is the play. Tua needs someone to get open that he trusts, so Smith would fit that need.

I'm thinking Devonta will be long gone by pick 6.  

Funny because most draft pundits think that Ja'Marr Chase is a better prospect.  

[kentwo]

10 minutes ago, nipples said:

Miami would likely go either Chase or Sewell, probably Sewell but could be either. I do think Atlanta then takes Fields, and Cinci lands Chase in that scenario.... which now that I think about it, would kind of screw the Eagles. I’m not super high on Surtain in that spot, and frankly I just don’t value LB highly enough to take Parsons there. 
 

So let’s just hope the Jets either take Fields or Sewell. If that happens it’s a damn good chance either Chase or Smith are there at 6. 

That is worst case scenario. In Kiper's latest mock, he had Chase and Smith gone back 6, so projected Waddle to the Eagles. I'd rather have Surtain than Waddle, but hope Smith or Chase are around at that time over both either Surtain or Waddle. Definitely not Parsons, the Eagles played less than 30% base coverage last year reducing the need for a lot of good LBs. While he is good, I think he is not as special as Smith or Chase.

I think as the draft gets closer and pro days/combine performances come out the QBs will rise. Seems like they do every year.

[eaglesfan0075]

2 hours ago, kentwo said:

That is worst case scenario. In Kiper's latest mock, he had Chase and Smith gone back 6, so projected Waddle to the Eagles. I'd rather have Surtain than Waddle, but hope Smith or Chase are around at that time over both either Surtain or Waddle. Definitely not Parsons, the Eagles played less than 30% base coverage last year reducing the need for a lot of good LBs. While he is good, I think he is not as special as Smith or Chase.

I think as the draft gets closer and pro days/combine performances come out the QBs will rise. Seems like they do every year.

If both Chase and Smith are gone, I think you can make a strong case for Kyle Pitts from Florida at 6, since he's basically a big WR playing TE. Very productive this year also playing in the SEC so level of competition is not an issue with him. At 6'6 and 240 lbs, he'd be a very good redzone weapon.

Zach Ertz is likely out the door, and the Eagles can use Pitts like the Raiders use Darren Waller. The Raiders don't have a true WR1 but they have Waller and a bunch of slot WR (Ruggs, Agholor, Renfrow). Waller is essentially their WR1 and Pitts could be that for us.

[UK_EaglesFan89]

13 minutes ago, eaglesfan0075 said:

If both Chase and Smith are gone, I think you can make a strong case for Kyle Pitts from Florida at 6, since he's basically a big WR playing TE

I tell you what... I say DJ's first mock and he had SF taking Pitts! Gulp. Imagine Kittle and Pitts with Deebo, Aiyuk and some of the other weapons they have... Plus potentially Matt Stafford.

[philafan4o8]

The Eagles only shot at the 2 WRs Is if the Jets and falcons draft QB or if teams trade into top 5 for their guy (ie Lions, panthers, Denver, 49ers, etc).
 

IMO 3 QBs need to be drafted in top 5. Then we have a shot because There is absolutely no way Sewell falls out the top 5.

[nipples]

7 hours ago, philafan4o8 said:

The Eagles only shot at the 2 WRs Is if the Jets and falcons draft QB or if teams trade into top 5 for their guy (ie Lions, panthers, Denver, 49ers, etc).
 

IMO 3 QBs need to be drafted in top 5. Then we have a shot because There is absolutely no way Sewell falls out the top 5.

Considering they are talking about trading Ryan, I’m pretty confident Atlanta takes a QB. 

[Infam]

2 hours ago, nipples said:

Considering they are talking about trading Ryan, I’m pretty confident Atlanta takes a QB. 

Maybe the guy they want is gone, maybe they trade for a QB or buy one in FA.. Too many moving parts in the QB market to make that prediction imo.

[eagle45]

On 1/20/2021 at 11:28 AM, Cochis_Calhoun said:

Randy Moss was built like a twig, so is Robby Anderson, Antonio Brown was 5'10 and 181lbs, TY Hilton is 5'9 and 180.  Disregarding proven production at the highest College level for other metrics is how you end up picking Reagor over Jefferson.

Overrating production at the highest level is how you end up picking Jordan Matthews

[nipples]

9 hours ago, eagle45 said:

Overrating production at the highest level is how you end up picking Jordan Matthews

It goes both ways. People complain about choosing raw ability over production when it comes to Jefferson vs Reagor, but then you’ve got situations like JJAW who in college had for more production than Metcalf.