20 hours ago, JohnSnowsHair said:

Weird that you didn't mention the severe recession they're also just entered 🤷‍♂️

You mean like the U.S. recession in the early 80's followed by 40 years of low inflation?

58 minutes ago, Procus said:

You mean like the U.S. recession in the early 80's followed by 40 years of low inflation?

So, are you saying that recessions are good?

7 minutes ago, Imp81318 said:

So, are you saying that recessions are good?

If Trump were to somehow win and we fall into deep recession in 2025...then yes!

21 minutes ago, Gannan said:

If Trump were to somehow win and we fall into deep recession in 2025...then yes!

and of course, it would be obama, i mean biden's fault. 

The only way to tame hyper inflation is to cause a recession. There's really no avoiding it. Argentina has had rampant levels of inflation for decades. There is no conceivable way to correct that without a serious economic slowdown. They have to pay the piper for decades of economic malfeasance. 

The 10 year low on this chart was 14.3%...

1 hour ago, Procus said:

You mean like the U.S. recession in the early 80's followed by 40 years of low inflation?

 

39 minutes ago, Imp81318 said:

So, are you saying that recessions are good?

Hardly, but if you think you're going to wipe out a generation of hyperinflation with no pain, you're barking up the wrong tree

look at procus piggybacking off of vikas. 

2 minutes ago, Procus said:

Hardly, but if you think you're going to wipe out a generation of hyperinflation with no pain, you're barking up the wrong tree

You understand that thinking half of a country eating out of garbage cans is a great success but thinking historic job growth, energy independence, steadily strong gdp and rising wages are an economic catastrophe is complete insanity, right?

2 minutes ago, VanHammersly said:

You understand that thinking half of a country eating out of garbage cans is a great success but thinking historic job growth, energy independence, steadily strong gdp and rising wages are an economic catastrophe is complete insanity, right?

you know there's some olympic level mental gymnastics going on in his head right now. 

I love CVON.  You can have a topic that really isn't so controversial, and somehow people seem to find a way to go at with each other. 

I'm going to continue following Milei.  He's bucking the worldwide trend at the moment, and it looks like his shock therapy is having an effect on the economy. 

1 minute ago, Procus said:

I love CVON.  You can have a topic that really isn't so controversial, and somehow people seem to find a way to go at with each other. 

I'm going to continue following Milei.  He's bucking the worldwide trend at the moment, and it looks like his shock therapy is having an effect on the economy. 

Taking the highroad's probably the way to go with this one, since if you actually answered my question you'd have to admit that everything you say on here is complete bull sheet. 

Just now, VanHammersly said:

Taking the highroad's probably the way to go with this one, since if you actually answered my question you'd have to admit that everything you say on here is complete bull sheet. 

Your question was a loaded question - and actually, my comment wasn't directed at you - I skimmed by it and wasn't paying attention.  Yes, the economy sucks there.  And here's a newsflash - it sucked before.  They have a lousy situation.  But you can't have a stable economy with hyperinflation caused by government spending.  Stop the stimulation and things get worse, but the root cause of the inflation has been removed, and then you move forward with a stable currency and a sound economic footing.  What is your proposal - keep paying out what is essentially massive welfare?

who would win in a fight?

crystal method or chemical brothers?

 

 

answer carefully 

3 hours ago, VanHammersly said:

You understand that thinking half of a country eating out of garbage cans is a great success but thinking historic job growth, energy independence, steadily strong gdp and rising wages are an economic catastrophe is complete insanity, right?

You are as partisan stupid as he is…

 

4 hours ago, Dave Moss said:

 

Paul Volcker raised interest rates into the 20’s which caused a recession in 1981. Unemployment went over 10%. 
 

https://www.federalreservehistory.org/essays/recession-of-1981-82

4 hours ago, Procus said:

Your question was a loaded question - and actually, my comment wasn't directed at you - I skimmed by it and wasn't paying attention.  Yes, the economy sucks there.  And here's a newsflash - it sucked before.  They have a lousy situation.  But you can't have a stable economy with hyperinflation caused by government spending.  Stop the stimulation and things get worse, but the root cause of the inflation has been removed, and then you move forward with a stable currency and a sound economic footing.  What is your proposal - keep paying out what is essentially massive welfare?

My question was pretty straightforward. I’ve got no problem with what Milei is doing. Sounds like they’re in deep sheet right now but I hope it works out for them in the end. Meanwhile, you chose to ignore the part relevant to our country because you’d be forced to admit the right wing narrative on the economy is ridiculous nonsense. 

2 hours ago, ToastJenkins said:

You are as partisan stupid as he is…

 

Yes, yes, TJ. We know. You’re very even handed but also very edgy. 

8 hours ago, Procus said:

You mean like the U.S. recession in the early 80's followed by 40 years of low inflation?

You cannot compare the two economies. 

For sure they're going to have to endure some pain, but what's happening with Argentina's economy is insane compared to anything we've seen here.

Interest rates have been cut since Milei took over. That may sound weird with Volcker hiking rates precipitously in his efforts to slay inflation, but interest rates in October (before Milei's administration) were over 120%. They were most recently cut from 50% to 40%.

This is a very different kind of economic policy that Milei is trying to employ. It's impossible to relate it to what Volcker or any other US Fed chairman has done.

2 hours ago, JohnSnowsHair said:

You cannot compare the two economies. 

For sure they're going to have to endure some pain, but what's happening with Argentina's economy is insane compared to anything we've seen here.

Interest rates have been cut since Milei took over. That may sound weird with Volcker hiking rates precipitously in his efforts to slay inflation, but interest rates in October (before Milei's administration) were over 120%. They were most recently cut from 50% to 40%.

This is a very different kind of economic policy that Milei is trying to employ. It's impossible to relate it to what Volcker or any other US Fed chairman has done.

Not really. Argentina has a more extreme version of inflation, of course, but it’s the same basic playbook.

7 hours ago, TEW said:

Not really. Argentina has a more extreme version of inflation, of course, but it’s the same basic playbook.

Severity matters. And interest rates have been getting cut. Not increased.

Milei is gutting spending and the size of government. 

Volcker cut rates. Government spending grew throughout the 80s. Spending almost doubled in the 8 years Reagan was president. 

It's not the same playbook at all.

11 hours ago, VanHammersly said:

Meanwhile, you chose to ignore the part relevant to our country because you’d be forced to admit the right wing narrative on the economy is ridiculous nonsense. 

 

12 hours ago, JohnSnowsHair said:

Severity matters. And interest rates have been getting cut. Not increased.

Milei is gutting spending and the size of government. 

Volcker cut rates. Government spending grew throughout the 80s. Spending almost doubled in the 8 years Reagan was president. 

It's not the same playbook at all.

   

Argentina took interest rates from 38% up to 252%.  Yes, they were then lowered as the actions were effective. That you see this as getting "cut” is laughable.

Volcker took the Fed funds from below 5% to 20%. Again, the fact that they were later lowered as inflation was curtailed is laughable.

Yes, severity matters, which is why Argentina is engaging in more severe monetary and fiscal tightening. Same basic playbook, but more extreme to account for their more severe situation.

I’ll give you this opportunity to just concede that you’re clueless before you embarrass yourself further.

41 minutes ago, TEW said:

   

Argentina took interest rates from 38% up to 252%.  Yes, they were then lowered as the actions were effective. That you see this as getting "cut” is laughable.

Volcker took the Fed funds from below 5% to 20%. Again, the fact that they were later lowered as inflation was curtailed is laughable.

Yes, severity matters, which is why Argentina is engaging in more severe monetary and fiscal tightening. Same basic playbook, but more extreme to account for their more severe situation.

I’ll give you this opportunity to just concede that you’re clueless before you embarrass yourself further.

Dude, you're arguing that Argentina is following "the playbook"

There IS no playbook for the situation Argentina is in, #1. 

#2, if there was, it wouldn't be cutting rates - even at crazy high ones. I literally stated that rates went crazy high back in October before Milei was elected, he's the one lowering them (even if "lowering to 40%" is absurd - it shows how far into outer space their economy is)

You reduce inflation by cutting demand - which almost always means a recession*. The one big lever our fed has to do that is to increase rates. 

Milei isn't following that playbook - that's my point. He's cut demand primarily by reducing the size of the government's footprint on the economy. 

This is not following "the playbook" which was my point.

If you're going to argue strawman like a clueless idiot I wouldn't throw around the pejorative either. You're projecting your own idiocy. You embarrass yourself every time you engage in anything remotely resembling a good faith argument, which is why you always either bail or fall back on logical fallacies.

 

* It's actually pretty amazing that we've been able to do as well with our own inflation battle relative to our peers without sinking into a recession.

16 minutes ago, JohnSnowsHair said:

Dude, you're arguing that Argentina is following "the playbook"

There IS no playbook for the situation Argentina is in, #1. 

#2, if there was, it wouldn't be cutting rates - even at crazy high ones. I literally stated that rates went crazy high back in October before Milei was elected, he's the one lowering them (even if "lowering to 40%" is absurd - it shows how far into outer space their economy is)

You reduce inflation by cutting demand - which almost always means a recession*. The one big lever our fed has to do that is to increase rates. 

Milei isn't following that playbook - that's my point. He's cut demand primarily by reducing the size of the government's footprint on the economy. 

This is not following "the playbook" which was my point.

If you're going to argue strawman like a clueless idiot I wouldn't throw around the pejorative either. You're projecting your own idiocy. You embarrass yourself every time you engage in anything remotely resembling a good faith argument, which is why you always either bail or fall back on logical fallacies.

 

* It's actually pretty amazing that we've been able to do as well with our own inflation battle relative to our peers without sinking into a recession.

There absolutely are multiple playbooks. You’re acting like there isn’t an entire field of economics with academic theory on the subject and multiple real world examples of inflation and hyperinflation throughout history.  

When you are looking at rates in the triple digits, and inflation begins to come down, and monetary policy is tightening, yes, you might look to lower rates from multiple triple digits because (1) you know the deflationary pressure from fiscal cuts can offset the lower rates and (2) it leaves you more room to go back up if necessary at a later date.

How you reduce inflation is dependent on the situation. Argentina has a combination of monetary and fiscal problems. Hence both monetary and fiscal solutions. Milei has some control over the fiscal side, but he doesn’t control interest rates. So I’m not sure why you are attributing rates to him. The BCRA controls interest rates.

Yes, they (BCRA) are absolutely following the Volcker playbook in a more extreme fashion on the monetary end with shock hikes followed by a slow return to normalcy. Why you argue this isn’t the case is beyond me. They are literally doing the same thing in a more extreme fashion.

The Fed has multiple tools today, and could simply sell their security holdings to soak up money, for instance, without necessarily going the Fed funds route. Just an FYI…

And it’s not really a shock that the US is doing relatively well since we started at ZIRP. People act like we have high interest rates today, but this is just a return to historical normalcy. The Greenspan put followed by the 08 financial crisis has really clouded people’s perception.

I’ll just leave it at this: if you think the Argentinian response to inflation has been to cut rates, and they aren’t following the example of Volcker by raising rates, I don’t know what to tell you other than you are wrong. This isn’t bad faith. This is the most good faith statement I can give to you. Going into mid triple digit interest rates and then lowering them from there after over a year is not some kind of dovish monetary policy. The point of shock hikes is that they are relatively short lived.