July 23, 20241 yr Just now, Tweek said: From what I've seen, in AZ, they would fill his seat with another Democrat and it wouldn't be an issue but take that with a grain of salt, not an expert by any means You might be right. I'm not sure how it works in AZ. They have a Dem Gov, right? I also don't know when that term is up.
July 23, 20241 yr 1 minute ago, VanHammersly said: You might be right. I'm not sure how it works in AZ. They have a Dem Gov, right? I also don't know when that term is up. AZ is an appointment state. But it brings a special election in '26 followed by another in '28.
July 23, 20241 yr 3 minutes ago, BBE said: AZ is an appointment state. But it brings a special election in '26 followed by another in '28. Whatever the rules are you can bet that the GOP will try to prevent the Governor from selecting his replacement.
July 23, 20241 yr 6 minutes ago, mr_hunt said: Polis is great. If he didn't look like Homer Simpson he'd probably have a bigger profile right now.
July 23, 20241 yr 23 minutes ago, VanHammersly said: Polis is great. If he didn't look like Homer Simpson he'd probably have a bigger profile right now. What has he done to make him great?
July 23, 20241 yr 3 minutes ago, 20dawk4life said: What has he done to make him great? Pardoned marijuana offenders. Abolished the death penalty. Protected woman's right to choose. Didn't buy into the covid lockdown stuff. Pushed for school choice. He's basically a liberal libertarian. Plus he's good on camera and is pretty funny (for a politician).
July 23, 20241 yr 1 hour ago, we_gotta_believe said: Combat vet, astronaut, could help pick up AZ. Moderating and balancing the ticket is the thought, unlike what Donald DumbF*** did. Don't love the idea of taking a Dem senator from a traditionally red state.
July 23, 20241 yr 3 minutes ago, JohnSnowsHair said: Don't love the idea of taking a Dem senator from a traditionally red state. True, but if you truly feel he gives you the best chance to win the white house, you can't get too cute with this sort of thing. Someone mentioned that the gov would appoint a replacement for a couple years until the next election. At the end of the day, I don't care all that much about what the Senate looks like 2 years from now. I care about keeping Trump as far away as possible from our political system.
July 23, 20241 yr 1 hour ago, vikas83 said: I'd go with Shapiro. PA is more gettable than AZ, and he adds executive experience to the ticket. I get the concerns of far left backlash because he is Jewish (which is sad to have to consider), but I think the impact of the Arab vote in MI is overstated. Also, Harris is less pro-Israel than Biden. PA is the biggest electoral college prize, and Shapiro should help in WI as well. Deploy surrogates like Kelly, Beshear, Mayor Pete, etc. and blanket the swing states. It's Harris herself being less pro-Israel that's tipping my thinking in Shapiro's direction. I don't want to overstate what Shapiro being on the ticket would mean, I think VPs tend to be overrated as needle movers, but I could see 1-1.5 pts
July 23, 20241 yr 1 minute ago, JohnSnowsHair said: It's Harris herself being less pro-Israel that's tipping my thinking in Shapiro's direction. I don't want to overstate what Shapiro being on the ticket would mean, I think VPs tend to be overrated as needle movers, but I could see 1-1.5 pts His popularity in PA is very impactful and I think could deliver the state. There's really no path to victory for Harris without PA. Even is she swept MI, WI, NV and AZ, without PA she loses.
July 23, 20241 yr 1 hour ago, Tweek said: From what I've seen, in AZ, they would fill his seat with another Democrat and it wouldn't be an issue but take that with a grain of salt, not an expert by any means A Dem would fill the seat but it would put the seat in play for 2026. Otherwise he holds the seat until the 2028 election.
July 23, 20241 yr From January, but still very compelling Quote The poll showed Shapiro with a 59% approval rating receiving "all the love with approval numbers other politicians would take in a Pennsylvania minute,” said Quinnipiac University Polling Analyst Tim Malloy. Shapiro held a positive favorable rating in all age and identity demographics and had 51% support from Independents, 27% support from Republicans, and 77% support from Democrats. An additional 9% (a total of 36%) of Republicans said they approved of Shapiro’s job performance. Comparatively, the Quinnipiac Poll showed Senator Bob Casey receiving a 51% approval rating, followed by Senator John Fetterman at 45%, and President Joe Biden at 40%. Donald Trump had a 38% favorable rating. https://www.abc27.com/pennsylvania-politics/shapiro-holds-strong-approval-rating-in-new-quinnipiac-poll/#:~:text=Shapiro held a positive favorable,and 77% support from Democrats.
July 23, 20241 yr 6 minutes ago, vikas83 said: His popularity in PA is very impactful and I think could deliver the state. There's really no path to victory for Harris without PA. Even is she swept MI, WI, NV and AZ, without PA she loses. I think that gives her 270 if she wins all those plus NE2
July 23, 20241 yr 5 minutes ago, we_gotta_believe said: I think that gives her 270 if she wins all those plus NE2
July 23, 20241 yr as long as shapiro gets the F'ng recreational marijuana bill passed before he rolls.
July 23, 20241 yr 1 minute ago, vikas83 said: You're right. Wondering if the EVs changed from a previous election, thought there was a scenario where that gave Biden or HRC 270 on the nose but might've been mixing it up with something else.
July 23, 20241 yr Yeah, looks like some states dropped EVs from 2020: MI, NY, IL, CA while others gained some: CO, OR, NC
July 23, 20241 yr 45 minutes ago, VanHammersly said: Pardoned marijuana offenders. Abolished the death penalty. Protected woman's right to choose. Didn't buy into the covid lockdown stuff. Pushed for school choice. He's basically a liberal libertarian. Plus he's good on camera and is pretty funny (for a politician). Sold!
July 23, 20241 yr 2 hours ago, Procus said: Biden will address the nation Wednesday on his decision to drop reelection bid | AP News unless biden announces he will be dead by friday, you'll be wrong, again. you're batting 1000 grandpa.
July 23, 20241 yr 13 hours ago, Dave Moss said: Democracy! Not trying to be an ahole, but this whole process with the Democratic voters not really choosing Kamala as replacement doesn't seem very Democratic. I understand she's the obvious choice from the party's perspective, as passing over her for anyone but Michelle would have been a disaster. But still doesn't sit right that the people don't get to revote. 1 hour ago, mr_hunt said: I'm not a Democrat, but I love Colorado, and he's actually been a really great Governor for CO residents from what I've read and from what friends have told me. He's funny as hell too, which is on full display here.
July 23, 20241 yr 29 minutes ago, Outlaw said: Not trying to be an ahole, but this whole process with the Democratic voters not really choosing Kamala as replacement doesn't seem very Democratic. I understand she's the obvious choice from the party's perspective, as passing over her for anyone but Michelle would have been a disaster. But still doesn't sit right that the people don't get to revote. There wasn't even voting in primaries until the 1960's, not voting that counted anyway. The republican party literally cancelled their primaries in 2020 when 2 republicans challenged Trump for the nomination. Spoiler alert, the same republicans rheeeeing about this didn't care. I would say that since she's gotten around 100 million in small donations, says that democrats are good with it.
July 23, 20241 yr 31 minutes ago, Outlaw said: Not trying to be an ahole, but this whole process with the Democratic voters not really choosing Kamala as replacement doesn't seem very Democratic. I understand she's the obvious choice from the party's perspective, as passing over her for anyone but Michelle would have been a disaster. But still doesn't sit right that the people don't get to revote. Primary votes don't choose the nominee. Here's an article for you: PolitiFact: Why experts say it’s legal for Democrats to replace Biden (statesman.com)
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