Game Preview – PHI at TB

Posted: September 28th, 2024 | Author: Tommy Lawlor

The Bucs ended the Eagles season back in January. Normally that set this up as a revenge game, but I don’t get that vibe. I think we were all so ready for 2023 to end that losing to Tampa just wasn’t that big of a deal.

Thankfully, 2024 is different. The Eagles are 2-1 and look like they could be a good team. The Bucs are also 2-1, but they are a lot harder to figure out. They had an impressive win over the Lions in Week 2 and then got dominated by the Broncos last week, losing 26-7. They were out-gained 352 to 223 so the score wasn’t deceiving. Denver controlled that game from start to finish.

Tampa is 25th in yards on offense. They are 15th in points, mostly based on winning 37-20 in the opener over Washington. They are 23rd in offensive DVOA. The Bucs are struggling up front and that has affected the whole offense. Baker Mayfield has been sacked 13 times. RT Luke Goedeke is likely to return this week so that will help a lot.

Mayfield has mostly played well, but the protection issues have limited the passing game. Mike Evans only has 10 catches for 120 yards after three games. Remember that Dallas Goedert went 10-170 last week alone. Chris Godwin is the leading receiver, with 21 catches. The run game has been inconsistent. Rachaad White is struggling, at 2.1 yards per carry. That’s not good. Rookie Bucky Irving is averaging 6.2 ypc. That is good. Expect him to get more touches. Irving is a quick, shifty runner so he doesn’t need great blocking. He’s able to create on his own.

The Tampa defense has been up and down. They are a disappointing 28th in yards allowed, but are 15th in points. They are 12th in defensive DVOA. The Bucs only have 2 sacks. They struggle with missed tackles. They allow 4.9 ypc, which is 28th in the league. This looks like a Todd Bowles defense in terms of style (blitzing), but the results aren’t what he wants, aside from being tough to score on.

CB Jamel Dean is the leading tackler. That’s never a good sign. No player has more than 2 TFLs. They only have 9 as a team. Guys just aren’t making plays.

Injuries are going to be a big factor for both teams.

Winfield is a major loss. Vea and Irving could be huge as well. We’ll find out more about them on Sunday. The Eagles will be missing DeVonta Smith. Lane Johnson and AJ Brown are both questionable. They have a chance to play, but I wouldn’t be much on either of them.

 

The Eagles are the more talented team on paper, but this is a challenging matchup. Facing the blitz was a major issue last year. Jalen Hurts is better this year, but he hasn’t faced Todd Bowles blitzes yet. The Bucs are very creative and aggressive. They will really test just how much better Hurts is.

Hurts won’t have all of his weapons. He will have Saquon Barkley, Dallas Goedert and Jahan Dotson. This is one of those games where the Eagles need Hurts to play like a star QB. He needs to get the most out of the guys he does have and will also need to make some plays himself. Hurts did that last week so he should be confident that he can get the job done again.

It will be interesting to see what Tampa does on offense. They saw the Eagles play big fronts and shut down the Saints. Tampa loves to use 11 personnel and spread teams out. Expect them to do that. Will Vic Fangio have some wrinkles for this week? He used 3 DTs vs spread looks last week and that was effective. The Bucs have now seen that and might have ideas on how to attack it.

The real key to this game will be the line of scrimmage. It looks like Mekhi Becton will be back at RG. There is a good chance Fred Johnson will start at RT. Johnson played well last week, but he was a mid-game change. The Bucs have had a week to figure out how to attack him. This will be a tougher test for Johnson if he is the RT.

Jalen Carter played at a special level last week. If he wants to show that he’s a special player, he has to do that consistently. Tampa has a rookie center and I’m betting Carter will test him a time or two. Bucs RG Cody Mauch has struggled at times this year. Carter could eat him up. Tampa will double Carter as much as possible, which means other DL will have 1-on-1 matchups. They must win those. The entire Eagles defensive front played better last week. They need a repeat performance.

Special Teams can always be an X-factor. The Eagles will have a rookie PR in Cooper DeJean. That is something to watch.

Intangibles sometimes favor the more desperate team. That would be Tampa, coming off last week’s beatdown by the Broncos. The Eagles had to grind out a tough win over a tough team. That could have them focused and ready to play. We’ll see which team plays with more urgency.

Feed the ball to Barkley, play good defense and go win the game. Don’t over-complicate this.

http://igglesblitz.com/2024/09/game-preview-phi-at-tb/

Blitz....Hmmmm....one part of the answer:

Spoiler

 

Feed Saquon.

Ditto Goedert.

I'd also love to see Moore design some plays where both Saquon and Shipley are on the field together.  Get Shipley running a wheel route.  

2 minutes ago, time2rock said:

Feed Saquon.

Ditto Goedert.

I'd also love to see Moore design some plays where both Saquon and Shipley are on the field together.  Get Shipley running a wheel route.  

Yep. There are a lot of ways to attack the Bucs. I think Moore has the brains for it. Just need Hurts to take what's there and no hero ball. The defense should be good to go.