Third pick in a 10 team PPR

[Wolves111]

Do I dare to take Clyde over Zeke or Barkley assuming one of them is there? I realize its a risk but KC offense will be historic. Reid has produced the likes of Westbrook and Hunt.

[toolg]

I wouldn't unless it's a dynasty league. I might even take Michael Thomas there, taking a gamble on RBs that fall into rounds 2-3. The drop-off in RB in a 10-team league is not so bad.

Don't get me wrong, I really like CEH. I think he'll be a good player. Some people aren't as high, so I'd take a chance he could fall. If not, he's still a rookie in a weird year, so I take a chance I could get him next year in a redraft.

[eaglesfan0075]

I'm in a 10 team PPR league this year. I do like Clyde Edwards-Helaire in the mid to late 1st round, but the 3rd overall pick is too rich for my taste.  The absolute best case scenario for CEH is that he lives up to that 3rd overall pick, but the range of outcomes with him is much wider than many of the veteran players under consideration in the 1st round and he could easily be a late Rnd 1/early Rnd 2 guy.

Personally, I am leaning towards taking one of CMC, Barkley, or Zeke if I end up with a top 3 pick (staying objective and not making a stink about NFC East being weak. I do like Michael Thomas in that pick 4-6 range (I doubt he makes it past 6 in a 10 team PPR league) and am leaning towards picking him over Kamara and Cook. I got burned for taking Kamara early last year in a non-PPR league, as he had his moments but was often overshadowed by Taysom Hill and Michael Thomas. Cook has elite talent but is very risky from an injury standpoint. I am more inclined to avoid him in drafts if I can help it.

[Wolves111]

All good points. Thing is I had Zeke last year and actually traded him mid year for WR help. While he's consistent with 20 points a week he doesn't deliver that huge week needed once in a while, ala Gurley two years ago. Factor in a really good WR group and Dak vulturing td's and I'm ready to look elsewhere at #3. Maybe Lamar or Mahommes at #3 makes some sense.

[Agent23]

57 minutes ago, Wolves111 said:

All good points. Thing is I had Zeke last year and actually traded him mid year for WR help. While he's consistent with 20 points a week he doesn't deliver that huge week needed once in a while, ala Gurley two years ago. Factor in a really good WR group and Dak vulturing td's and I'm ready to look elsewhere at #3. Maybe Lamar or Mahommes at #3 makes some sense.

I did my first (and only) mock the other day, and I was the one who took Mahommes first... I was pick 8 in a 12 teamer... and i took him in round THREE!!! QBs, even the statistical GOATs, are all round 3 or later players, and every year some n00b takes them in round on. Don't be that guy. Especially at pick #3

[Wolves111]

No worries...

[eaglesfan0075]

I ended up getting pick 9 out of 10 in my PPR league, but I practiced doing a bunch of mock drafts at various spots before the actual draft order was released an hour prior to the draft.

In the mocks where I held the 3rd pick, my favorite simulation was going RB-TE-WR in the 1st three rounds. Ended up with Zeke - Kelce - Godwin in one mock which is a solid trio to work with and well balanced. Even if Kelce makes it off the board earlier in Rnd 2, Kittle should be there.

In the real draft, the owner with the 3rd pick employed a similar strategy, landing Zeke - Kittle - Hill.

[Wolves111]

The Hill pick surprises me. Carchian has him the #2 WR behind Thomas. His adp is top 15.

[eaglesfan0075]

4 hours ago, Wolves111 said:

The Hill pick surprises me. Carchian has him the #2 WR behind Thomas. His adp is top 15.

Actually that was a mistype on my part: Hill was the 2nd round pick, Kittle was the 3rd round pick of the team owner I referenced in my anecdote.

I'm not completely surprised since it was a 10-team PPR league. In a standard league, I can see Hill possibly being the 2nd WR off the board, but in our draft he ended up going 4th after Thomas, Jones and Adams.

[Wolves111]

I'm in Fuzzy's FF leagues. Pretty competitive and well managed. Last night in a $150, 10 team, ppr Hill went #4 overall followed by Mahommes at #6, Clyde at #10. Zeke went #2 and Barkley #3. The guy who took Mahommes didn't take a rb until rd 5.

After doing this since 1994 I'm still surprised by head scratching moves.  

[eaglesfan0075]

On 9/2/2020 at 7:20 AM, Wolves111 said:

I'm in Fuzzy's FF leagues. Pretty competitive and well managed. Last night in a $150, 10 team, ppr Hill went #4 overall followed by Mahommes at #6, Clyde at #10. Zeke went #2 and Barkley #3. The guy who took Mahommes didn't take a rb until rd 5.

After doing this since 1994 I'm still surprised by head scratching moves.  

You never know when those head scratching moves end up working out haha.

In 2005, I ended up taking McNabb #3 overall after Peyton Manning and Daunte Culpepper went 1 and 2. The guy that told me I should have drafted LT instead was the same guy I beat in the championship, with Vick at QB and a ragtag group of players (since McNabb got hurt that year)

[Wolves111]

1 hour ago, eaglesfan0075 said:

You never know when those head scratching moves end up working out haha.

In 2005, I ended up taking McNabb #3 overall after Peyton Manning and Daunte Culpepper went 1 and 2. The guy that told me I should have drafted LT instead was the same guy I beat in the championship, with Vick at QB and a ragtag group of players (since McNabb got hurt that year)

I tell you I'm not feeling Zeke anymore. He got paid, four years after averaging 300 touches a year, and Dak wants his. Now Dak has an arsenal that Brady would trade a SB win for and that signals regression for Zeke. I'd almost rather have Henry.

[toolg]

On 9/3/2020 at 4:57 PM, Wolves111 said:

I tell you I'm not feeling Zeke anymore. I'd almost rather have Henry.

I like Henry. If you want Henry there, I don't blame you. He's going in the first-round. He just doesn't help you in PPR. He doesn't catch a lot of balls so he has to run for more yards to make up for it.