The Importance of Risk

Posted:July 5th, 2025 |Author:Tommy Lawlor

July 4th is a day focused on freedom. The Founding Fathers declared independence from Great Britain. They took a huge risk by doing that. If Americans had not been victorious in the Revolutionary War, the signers of the Declaration of Independence would have been arrested as traitors and executed. Instead, they are a part of history forever.

Risks in football don’t have the same gravity, of course. You can lose a job or become infamous for the wrong reasons, but it is far better to be ripped on talk shows and social media than to be hanging from the gallows. Still, risks are an important part of football greatness.

Think about the Cowboys of the early 90’s. Jerry Jones took a risk when he hired Jimmy Johnson from the college ranks. Johnson built a staff of mainly college coaches. As he had done at the University of Miami, Johnson focused on speed rather than size. That was unusual for pro football. Dallas traded away their best player, Herschel Walker. The NFL world did a lot of laughing at Jones and Johnson when Dallas went 1-15 in 1989. Dallas was a playoff team by 1991 and won three Super Bowls over the next four seasons.

Bill Walsh built the Niners into a juggernaut by taking chances. He made third round pick Joe Montana his choice at QB. Walsh acquired some veterans who had question marks. He spent the 16th overall pick in 1984 on a kid from Mississippi Valley State. Walsh embraced the short passing game and didn’t think you needed to focus on the run game.

Both Johnson and Walsh revolutionized the game of football. They built dynasties and won multiple Super Bowls. Their risks paid off.

Howie Roseman was demoted in 2015, losing his role as GM. He got the position back after Chip Kelly was fired. Roseman has since taken the Eagles to three Super Bowls and won two of them. Not many GMs can say that. Not many GMs can say they hired multiple coaches who won SBs. Howie is in rare air.

One of the keys to Roseman’s success is taking risks. He hired Doug Pederson at a time when no other team was pursuing him. Roseman hired Nick Sirianni when he was somewhat of an unknown in the NFL. Both coaches hoisted the Lombardi Trophy.

Roseman drafted Jalen Hurts at a time when Carson Wentz was established as the Eagles franchise QB. Wentz was 27 years old and had 56 career starts. It hardly seemed like the time to spend a high pick on another QB. The Eagles like Hurts quite a bit and thought it was worth adding him even with Wentz in place. Wentz was traded after the 2020 season and Hurts has gone 46-20 as the Eagles starter. More importantly, he’s 6-3 in the playoffs and won the SB last year.

A lot of people were highly critical of Roseman for the Hurts pick. Why not add more talent to help Wentz succeed? Instead, Hurts proved to be a franchise-changing pick.

Roseman took a chance when he drafted Jalen Carter ninth overall in 2023. Carter was a great talent at Georgia and could have gone first overall. There were questions about his focus and work ethic. How would he handle being a millionaire? Carter also had off-field issues. Teams loved his potential, but were scared of him. Roseman felt Carter could be a difference-maker. It was up to the Eagles to provide the right setting to help him be good off the field and great on it. The Eagles don’t win the SB last year without Carter. He is a dominant player. If you re-did the 2023 draft he doesn’t last anywhere close to ninth.

Not all of Roseman’s moves pan out. The Eagles signed Devin White in the spring of 2024, hoping he could be the MLB the team needed. White struggled and ended up getting cut. Luckily Roseman took another chance, signing Zack Baun and putting him at ILB based on the advice of Vic Fangio. Baun is now one of the best LBs in the league.

Roseman drafted Jalen Reagor in 2020, hoping his speed and athleticism would provide a boost to the offense. There are some reports that the coaches pushed for Reagor. No matter who wanted him, Roseman took the chance and made the pick. Reagor was a bust. Roseman didn’t give up. The following April he traded for AJ Brown, who has a chance to go down as the best receiver in Eagles history.

No coach or GM is going to be right all of the time. The key is to stay aggressive and take some risks. That’s how you find great players. Maybe you take a character risk. Maybe a medical risk. Maybe you are projecting a position change. You have to be willing to roll the dice and take chances.

Roseman hoped Bryce Huff could go from a situational rusher in the 4-3 to a starting 3-4 OLB. Didn’t work. Roseman didn’t force the issue. He dealt Huff this spring. Roseman signed a couple of free agent rushers in Josh Uche and Azeez Ojulari. Both were cheap and feel like better fits for the scheme. Roseman didn’t get scared. He went right back out there and made those signings. We’ll see if they pan out better than Huff did.

This April Roseman took a medical risk by drafting Jihad Campbell 31st overall. Campbell had Top 10 talent, but teams had some health concerns. Roseman felt the risk was worth the reward. Based on recent history, Campbell has a good chance to become an outstanding pro player.

The challenge for Roseman now is to see if he can keep this going. Picking 32nd makes it tough to get the best players. We’ve already seen there are some financial limitations because the Eagles have so many great players. That’s a problem most teams would kill for.

Roseman’s moves in recent years built an amazing team that won Super Bowl LIX. There are debates about that being one of the best teams of all-time. Can Roseman continue to work his magic and turn the Eagles into (dare I say)…a dynasty?

http://igglesblitz.com/2025/07/the-importance-risk/

Tommy,

Very well composed article. Perhaps Howie will ask you to give the congradulating speech when he is elected into the NFL Hall of Fame.

As I ruminate where/how the Eagles should proceed over the course of the rest of this decade, this article helps me focus upon how "we" need to conentrate.

We are not in the inner circle so all we can do is trust that our team continues in good hands...I think they are.

P.S. Any chance you will do any commentary about future draft prospects down the road?

The biggest risk I see is going into the season with all of your tight ends in their free agent year, a weak 2026 tight end draft, and a sort of bare cupboard in free agency.

2 minutes ago, Rob331 said:

The biggest risk I see is going into the season with all of your tight ends in their free agent year, a weak 2026 tight end draft, and a sort of bare cupboard in free agency.

I agree on the parameters of the risk as you have described them. On factor that you didn’t mention is that Goedert, Calcaterra, and whichever TE wins the TE3 competition, will all be part of the Free Agent pool this coming Offseason, so Howie has the option of bringing one or more of them back for the 2026 season.

I totally forgot who they drafted with their 1st round pick, LOL. Still shocked they got him.

I guess I'm just still laser focused on the SB win. So the Off-Season has been a blur. 🦅