Eagles playoff scenarios: Are they locked into the NFC's 3-seed?

The Eagles can technically finish with any of the top three seeds in the NFC. Here's how:

By Evan Macy
PhillyVoice Staff

Amber Searls/Imagn Images

What seed will the Eagles finish with at the end of the regular season?

The Eagles have won back-to-back NFC East titles for the first time in two decades, but they still have a lot to play for in the season's final two games.

Well, they probably will.

Currently sitting as the NFC's No. 3 seed, there are theoretical possibilities where the Birds claim any of the top four spots in the playoff bracket. In the 3-position, by far the likeliest spot for them to remain, they'll have at least one home game in the postseason before potentially playing whomever the 2-seed is in the second round on the road (assuming that team wins against the 7-seed). 

If they can get the 1 or 2 spot, there are some major advantages to be had. But they don't really control their own fate for either and would need some extreme good luck.

The 1-seed

In addition to winning next week in Buffalo and then in Week 18 at home against the Commanders, the Eagles need all the following things to happen for them to get a first-round bye and play all their playoff games in Philadelphia:

• The 49ers must lose to the Colts and Bears in Weeks 16 and 17 (they play Indy Monday night)
• The Seahawks must lose to the Panthers and 49ers in Weeks 17 and 18
• The Rams must lose to either the Falcons or Cardinals in Weeks 17 and 18

It's basically a 1 in 100 shot those all happen, and they could be blocked out of the seed completely with a Niners win on Monday Night Football.

The 49ers beat the Colts, so the Eagles cannot get the 1-seed.

The 2-seed

For the Birds to improve to the 2-seed, which is the spot they held last January when they won the Super Bowl, they need to root hard against the Bears — a team that looks really good right now and wins a head-to-head tiebreaker against Philadelphia. If the Eagles can win both their games to finish the year, they would leapfrog Chicago if the Bears lost both their remaining games. The Bears play the 49ers and the Lions, both teams with a lot to play for still.

There is a second scenario that is more complicated than just two Eagles wins and two Bears losses but it will hurt your head. We'll get into it next week if it's still a potential path.

The 3-seed (and the 4-seed)

If the Eagles win one of their final two games, or if the Panthers lose one of their final two games — they play the Buccaneers and the Seahawks — the Eagles will clinch the 3-seed. They can only fall to No. 4 if neither of those things happen. Meaning, the Panthers winning out and the Eagles losing out would relegate Philly due to a tie-breaker situation with Carolina if they are both 10-7.

All of this is independent of the Eagles' potential opponents, who are still jockeying around. If the season ended today, Philly would host San Francisco, the 6-seed, in the Wild Card round. It's possible they could play basically any of the other eight teams in the playoff picture depending on how the final two weeks shake out.

https://www.phillyvoice.com/eagles-playoff-scenarios-seeding-nfc-east-title-opponents-match-ups-bye-2-seed-3-seed-bears-49ers-rooting-interest/

Without the #1 seed, it really makes very little difference whether it's the 2nd or 3rd seed.....

With that in mind, I would sit Dickerson, Jurgens, use Barkley sparingly, and maybe Hurts too. And anybody on offense who is nursing an injury.

On defense, I'd sit Carter and Davis or use them sparingly, along with Baun and again, anybody nursing an injury.

Maybe not for both games, but definitely the last game. But the eagles should take this opportunity to rest the guys who have played all year on the offensive line with injuries. Get them healed up as much as possible and fresh for the playoff run.

I would like to see McKee and Bigsby get some playing time, along with the other young guys.

I suspect given Detroit lost on Christmas Day and are eliminated from the playoff race the #3 is now pretty much a lock? I can’t see the Bears losing that week 18 game to a Detroit team with nothing to play for but pride. And I don’t think Carolina won both of their remaining games. So #3 looks most likely and on that basis I think we should rest the starters next week.

1 hour ago, UK_EaglesFan89 said:

I suspect given Detroit lost on Christmas Day and are eliminated from the playoff race the #3 is now pretty much a lock? I can’t see the Bears losing that week 18 game to a Detroit team with nothing to play for but pride. And I don’t think Carolina won both of their remaining games. So #3 looks most likely and on that basis I think we should rest the starters next week.

It's a shame we play before the Bears. It would be super helpful to know if the possibility of the 2 seed was still on the line or if the door was shut (should they beat SF ... which TBH I don't think they do). But had they played before us and beat SF, then we could potentially pull starters after a half to give them some extra rest (and in the process give the backups some valuable play time).

2 hours ago, time2rock said:

It's a shame we play before the Bears. It would be super helpful to know if the possibility of the 2 seed was still on the line or if the door was shut (should they beat SF ... which TBH I don't think they do). But had they played before us and beat SF, then we could potentially pull starters after a half to give them some extra rest (and in the process give the backups some valuable play time).

Agreed though I’m not sure we need quite that much rest? I think the game today is a really nice way of testing just how much better we are getting and whether we are ready for the play offs. But I also completely get your point that if we knew we’d have the choice to protect player’s more whilst giving back ups some playing time.