5 Eagles thoughts: Are the Birds really good, really lucky, or both?

The Eagles are living on the edge by thriving in so many third-and-long scenarios, but so far it's working.

By Geoff Mosher
PhillyVoice Staff

Steve Roberts/Imagn Images via Reuters Connect

Jalen Hurts has been brilliant on third down, but are the Eagles living on the edge by being in 3rd-and-long so much?

The Eagles are 2-0 again, Jalen Hurts is playing at a high level and injuries piling up for their opponents only makes them even more of a favorite to repeat as NFC East champs and contend for the conference crown.

Are they really good, really lucky, or a combination both?

Some of what they're doing feels unsustainable – they have one of the NFL's worst first-down offenses and best third-down offenses – and their own injuries are starting to pile up as the schedule toughens over the next three weeks.

Here are five thoughts on the Eagles as they prepare for their Monday night showdown against the Bears, the first of three straight opponent who made the postseason in 2025:

Defying logic

The Eagles have shown a penchant for defying odds through two weeks. Against the Titans, they turned the ball over twice on Jalen Hurts interceptions, making them one of 10 road teams this season to commit at least two turnovers in a game.

How many of those 10 were able to win?

Literally, just the Eagles. 

Of those nine other teams that turned the ball over twice on the road, five of them lost by at least 17 points and the total average margin of defeat for those nine teams was by 12.2 points – almost two possessions.

Basically, most teams that turn the ball over twice on the road get whacked easily. The Eagles figured out how to win.

The Eagles are also defying logic on third down. They converted 61 percent of third downs against the Titans – the Niners led the NFL last year with a 50-percent conversion rate – despite living in third-and-long for most of the game. For the season they are converting 53 percent of third downs despite having the exact same number of 3rd-and-long scenarios (7+ yards) as 3rd-and-medium (3-6 yards) and 3rd-and-short (1-2 yards) combined.

Talk about living on the edge. 

Can Zack Ertz be a savior?

The timing of Ertz's signing to the practice squad suggests the Eagles were reacting to Dallas Goedert's knee injury that will sideline him several weeks, but the reality is the Eagles needed tight end help way before Goedert went down.

Outside of a few snaps for TE3 E.J. Jenkins, the Eagles have mostly played with just Goedert and inline blocker Johnny Mundt, and have operated heavily from 11 personnel (3WR/1TE). Their 75-percent rate of 11 personnel is second-highest in the NFL. 

New OC Sean Mannion's offense would like to feature 12 personnel (2WR/2TE) more prominently, especially to help the under center run game and under center play action game, but the team's depth issue prevents him from doing so. 

Ertz can help in the long term, but what can be reasonably be expected from him by Monday? He's 35, coming off ACL surgery from December, and didn't spend time with any team in OTAs or training camp. Ertz has had no ram-up period.

Is it really worth elevating him to play a smattering of snaps – if that's even feasible – after just a few days of practice?

Look for the Eagles to be heavy 11 personnel against Chicago, which means they will need rookie Makai Lemon to be more impactful as the No. 3 receiver.

More O' Ojomo

For some reason the Eagles aren't giving Jordan Davis many opportunities to rush the passer despite handing him the kind of contract this offseason given to elite interior d-linemen who can stop the run and rush the passer. Several times the Eagles have praised Davis' improvement in the pass rush despite an iffy first three seasons for the 2022 first-round pick.

But against Tennessee, Davis rushed the passer just six times, per Next Gen Stats, compared to Moro Ojomo's 21 pass rushes. For the season, Davis has rushed the passer 22 times – fifth on the defense and just once more than situational pass rusher Arnold Ebiketie. Ojomo's 50 pass rushes are second on the defense behind Jalen Carter.

So, Davis got the big money while Ojomo, in the final year of his rookie deal, is bound to leave in free agency after this season, even though the Eagles are asking Ojomo to rush the passer more than twice as often as Davis has?

It's not just rushing the passer, either.

Ojomo has played 75 percent of the total defensive snaps while Davis has played 47 percent, a major difference in playing time especially compared to last year, when Ojomo played 65 percent of snaps and Davis played 61 percent.

Check out the season pass rush projections compared to last year:

	2026 pass rushes (proj.)	2025
Moro Ojomo	425	421
Jordan Davis	187	355

Finishing touch

On the subject of pass rush, the Eagles can't get Jonathan Greenard back fast enough, and maybe the two-time Pro Bowl edge will make his debut Monday night against the Bears.

Just like last season, the edge duo of Nolan Smith Jr. and Jalyx Hunt has shown to be good, not great, and not nearly skilled enough in actually taking down the quarterback. Smith and Hunt have very good pressure rates – 25% for Smith, 19% for Hunt – and overall the Eagles have the NFL's fourth-best pressure percentage (45.2%), but Smith and Hunt have combined for just one sack and the Eagles have just three sacks as a defense.

This is isn't a pressure generation issue, it's a finishing issue. Only eight NFL teams have a lower sack/pass attempt rate than the Eagles (5.56%). 

Greenard's speed off the edge brings another dimension to the pass rush. That's why Howie Roseman traded two third-round picks to get him and then gave him a bigger bag. If he plays against the Bears, even just as a rotational piece, Greenard should help the Birds convert some pressures into sacks.

Helping hand

The Eagles truly stole a win from the Titans in Nashville because Jalen Hurts sliced up the Tennessee secondary with the precision of a sous chef. But did Titans coach Robert Saleh also help Hurts and the offense a little too much?

Saleh's decision to have Joey Slye kick off into the end zone after Tennessee took the 20-17 lead automatically gave the Eagles possession at their own 35-yard line, with no timeouts and just 1:56 to play. Saleh could have asked Slye to kick shy of the end zone and force a return, and maybe the Titans get a stop before the 35 – the Eagles are averaging 25 yards per return this season on three returns.

Per former Eagles football analytics strategist Ryan Paganetti, a key voice in Doug Pederson's ear during for the Birds' first Super Bowl win in 2017, the Titans are the NFL leaders in kicking into the end zone by a mile.

Titans chose to kickoff into the end zone and give the Eagles a free start at the 35 yard line with 1:56 left and no timeouts.

Of course, every yard and second ended up being extremely valuable as they scored a TD with very little time remaining.

Through 2 weeks, Robert Saleh… pic.twitter.com/t2D9dnEBwr

— Ryan Paganetti (@RyanPaganetti) September 22, 2026

had been penalized earlier in the game for failing to get his kickoff in the landing zone on the opening kick of the second half, giving Eagles possession at their 40. Maybe Saleh didn't trust his kicker to execute a short kickoff. Maybe it's chicken-egg and Slye's penalty was the result of not enough real-game opportunities to execute a kickoff into the landing zone.

Either way, every extra yard and second helped the Eagles go 65 yards to pay dirt.

https://www.phillyvoice.com/5-eagles-thoughts-offense-jalen-hurts-third-down-zack-ertz-pressure-rate/

When you do something at a high level repeatedly I don’t think you can class it as luck. But it also is not sustainable and you’d expect us to regress on third and long. Having said that you’d also hope we can improve on first down so that would help the third down situations. So I don’t think we are lucky but they do need to address first down. If they don’t then our offense is going to be in trouble because Jalen can’t be super man all the time in order for us to be contenders.

Let's look at the these games from something other than just stats. Everybody throws around stats, rankings and analytics week after week. But stats never tell the whole story about how a team is performing.

Each game has its own circumstances......and if stats and analytics were perfect, we could predict the results of almost all games.

The eagles beat the commanders and the titans by making big plays when they had to......and that's what really good teams do. Random chance things (luck) happen to everybody. But what some things that seem to be luck, can actually be things that happen due to a previous event that can get into the head of an opponent causing a mistake.

I think we're seeing all over the NFL is inconsistencies that are frequent in the early games of the season. With limited playing time in the preseason, and with some teams having new HCs, new OCs, and new DCs, it takes a few games to acclimated and make adjustments.

That's where I think both the offense and the defense is right now......Fangio's defenses seem to start slow in the first couple games, but really pick it up as the season goes on. The offense is showing more creativity than it has for a while, but the offensive line has struggled and that may have slowed things.....still, they are averaging 24 points game.

I don't think it's luck that got the eagles to 2-0. The big plays that were made were from focused execution, talent and coaching.