Eagles mailbag: Best and worst case scenarios in 2021

[time2rock]

Eagles mailbag: Best and worst case scenarios in 2021

 

We’ve made it through the flurry of free agency and now through the draft, so the roster the Eagles have together right now is, for the most part, the roster they’re going to go into the 2021 season with.

The next big date on the NFL calendar is May 12, which is the schedule release and the beginning of Eagles rookie camp.

But until then, we have plenty of questions to get to in the latest mailbag:

Season best case scenarios and worst case scenarios

 

This is a fun one, but I’m going to keep it to realistic scenarios. Because the obvious best case scenario is that the Eagles go 17-0, cruise through the playoffs and win the Super Bowl. That’s not very likely. Nor is the worst case scenario where all of that happens before the Super Bowl and an asteroid comes flying toward earth.

So here are the best and worst case scenarios, within reason:

Best case: Jalen Hurts improves greatly and proves himself to be a true franchise quarterback. The Eagles win the division and get into the playoffs, the team finally stays healthy, DeVonta Smith is a stud and the new coaching staff begins to build a championship program. And in Indy, Carson Wentz plays 75% of the Colts’ snaps but their team has a mediocre record and misses the playoffs. That means the Eagles would get a nice first-round pick from that trade.

But really, the key to this season is Hurts. Because if he proves that he’s a franchise quarterback, then the Eagles have a nice head start in building their team. Not only do they have their QB under contract for a low price for the next two seasons but they would also have 10 draft picks, including three first-rounders, and a bunch of cap space to build a championship team around him.

Worst case: This might seem weird, but I actually don’t think the worst case long-term would be a two or three-win team. Honestly, the worst-case would be that Hurst is just OK or slightly above average. Any season where the Eagles end it still not sure if he can be the franchise quarterback isn’t ideal. Because then the Eagles would be in a situation where they have to decide if they give up on a good quarterback and try to land one they hope can be elite. Either way, you’d think the Eagles will want to know. Aside from Hurts, the other things that could go wrong: Sirianni looks overmatched, injuries still pile up, Smith’s size ends up being a problem, Wentz gets hurt before hitting 70% of their snaps and the Colts are still great without him.

Who’s your new guess for what CB the Eagles will trade or sign? Obviously some have come off the board

 

It’s hard to imagine that the Eagles will go into the season with the current group of corners they have, especially after they waited until the fourth round to address the position with Zech McPhearson. There are still a few free agent options, but they’re dwindling. As much fun as it would be to have Richard Sherman here, he’s probably going to want a big contract. And at this stage in his career, would he really be willing to come to a rebuilding team? My guess is no.

So I’ll list the three most likely free agents as Steven Nelson, Brian Poole and Cre’Von LeBlanc. Now, Nelson would obviously be the most expensive of the group but he’s still just 28. At this point in free agency, he’s probably looking at a one-year deal anywhere so maybe the Eagles can give him one loaded with incentives to come to Philly. The other guy who makes sense is Brian Poole. Also 28, Pool has started 38 games in the league since 2016. He’s not the same caliber player but he has a connection to the Eagles, formerly playing for DBs coach Dennard Wilson with the Jets. And lastly, LeBlanc is still without a team. His connections to the old coaching staff are gone but for a minimum deal, it wouldn’t be a bad idea to bring Strap back.

Trading for Gilmore a viable option and what will it take to get him?

 

I get why you’d want Stephon Gilmore. He’s one of the best corners in the league. But I’m not sure this really makes a ton of sense. While the Patriots might want to trade him as he enters the final year of his contract, are the Eagles really a logical landing spot? Gilmore will turn 31 early in the 2021 season and the Eagles don’t appear very ready to compete right now. So the Eagles would have to give up something significant to get him and then there’s the matter of salary. On his current deal, Gilmore has a $7 million base salary in 2021. The Eagles could get his cap number down this season but that would take an extension and Gilmore going to want a big one; this might be his last pay day. So are the Eagles really in a position to hand out big deals to a 31-year-old cornerback on a team that is at the very least in a retooling phase? Gilmore would make the Eagles better right now … no question.  But I’m not sure this is the most logical fit.

When might the Eagles consider offering Mailata a long term deal so he doesn’t hit free agency?

Much earlier this offseason, I came up with a list of five Eagles candidates for an extension … and none have gotten one so far. But three of the players on the list were members of the 2018 draft class, which means they’re about to enter contract seasons: Dallas Goedert, Josh Sweat and Jordan Mailata.

Mailata is a tricky one because many of us are assuming that he’ll be the starter this season but the Eagles also still have 2019 first-round pick Andre Dillard. If I’m the Eagles, I’d try to lock Mailata up to a contract that pays him like a really good backup. But the player in this instance might want to bet on himself winning the job and playing well. There might just be too little information about his future here to come up with a fair contract for both sides.

https://www.nbcsports.com/philadelphia/eagles/eagles-best-and-worst-case-scenarios-mailbag

[time2rock]

Not sure why the tweets don't carry over when pasting articles here (they appear fine initially but after posting there is nothing but a blank white space where they normally are inserted in the articles).  So I just copied and pasted the questions that were posed to Dave in their place so everyone knew what the answers were in relation to.  

[UK_EaglesFan89]

I have to say I agree that the worst case scenario for this team probably isn't winning only 2 or 3 games. I mean if that happens in all likelihood you can say that Hurts isn't the answer and you have a very high draft pick to get a QB plus another two draft picks in the first round. 

[DeathByEagle]

Worst case scenario: Hurts proves he sucks. We are the worst team in the league and we have the number one draft pick in the 2022 draft. 

Best case scenario: Hurts proves he sucks.We are the worst team in the league and we have the number one draft pick in the 2022 draft.

[time2rock]

4 hours ago, DeathByEagle said:

Worst case scenario: Hurts proves he sucks. We are the worst team in the league and we have the number one draft pick in the 2022 draft. 

Best case scenario: Hurts proves he sucks.We are the worst team in the league and we have the number one draft pick in the 2022 draft.

Best case scenario:  Hurts plays extremely well and proves he can be ‘the guy’ moving forward and leading us on deep playoff runs allowing us to use those 3 (expected) 1st rd picks to fortify other areas on the roster with top end talent.  

[UK_EaglesFan89]

8 hours ago, time2rock said:

Best case scenario:  Hurts plays extremely well and proves he can be ‘the guy’ moving forward and leading us on deep playoff runs allowing us to use those 3 (expected) 1st rd picks to fortify other areas on the roster with top end talent.  

I mean yeah that's absolutely the best case but how realistic is that? It's hard to gauge this team because of the unknowns. 

[birdman#12]

Here we go again with the idiotic "franchise QB" bullsh--

The best scenario for the eagles is for Hurts to play smart, which means minimizing turnovers, not be a 1-2 look, happy feet QB and to learn to use the weapons given to him.  Stop this idiotic "franchise QB" crap.  

Endless QBs have been declared to be "franchise QBs" only to be cut or traded and the team move on to the next "franchise QB"......ridiculous.

In addition to that best scenario is for the team not to have the amount of devastating injuries they seem to suffer every year.  I don't care how good Hurts is, is 3 or 4 guys go down on the offensive line,  the offense is going to suffer alot, putting more pressure on a rebuilding defense.

The worst case scenario is Hurts is a gadget QB, the young guys don't contribute much and the defense is too slow to gel and gives up a ton of points.

Best Scenario.......9-7, maybe 10-6......wentz plays the required amount of plays, but the colts lose alot. Young players contribute alot.

Worst scenario.....4-10...Hurts doesn't show much, injuries and young guys not contributing.

As I"ve said before.....the eagles went as Wentz went.....and he went downhill. The QB is the biggest key to the season.   If Hurts can utilize his weapons and play smart, the season will be exciting.  If not, then the eagles will be in the top 10 for the 2022 draft, using all those high draft picks to move up for a QB.

 

[ManchesterEagle]

22 hours ago, time2rock said:

Best case scenario:  Hurts plays extremely well and proves he can be ‘the guy’ moving forward and leading us on deep playoff runs allowing us to use those 3 (expected) 1st rd picks to fortify other areas on the roster with top end talent.  

 

14 hours ago, UK_EaglesFan89 said:

I mean yeah that's absolutely the best case but how realistic is that? It's hard to gauge this team because of the unknowns. 

Best case scenario is the Super Bowl (nobody thought we had a legitimate shot in 2017 either). It's incredibly unlikely and a lot would need to go right, but it's not beyond belief. This O has top 5 potential. The D is a bit harder to buy being good this year, but if we get good years out of Slay, Cox, Graham etc and a couple of the young guys step up, I guess it's possible they could be above average.

As UK says there are a lot unknowns (Hurts and the new coaching staff the most important). I think the most realistic outcome is somewhere between 6-11 and 8-9 - but I wouldn't be surprised if we either totally sucked or were really good.  

[Madriver]

I have to say the worst case scenario is mediocrity, where we don't know or aren't sure what we have on either side of the ball.

For example: Hurts takes us to barely 2nd or solid 3rd place in the division. Injuries are a factor but better than before. Young guys flash but aren't consistent. The defense---not unlike last season---shows up for a game or two and shocks the world, and then craps the bed at the worst possible time. 

In other words, if the team improves as the season goes along, that's positive. If we can't tell---we're screwed.

[UK_EaglesFan89]

9 hours ago, ManchesterEagle said:

This O has top 5 potential.

Ooh no I wouldn't go that far bud. I don't think this current O has top 5 potential, I think that's too much of a stretch. Top 15 sure, perhaps the 10th best offense but that's as far as I would do. 

[eglz1]

7 hours ago, UK_EaglesFan89 said:

Ooh no I wouldn't go that far bud. I don't think this current O has top 5 potential, I think that's too much of a stretch. Top 15 sure, perhaps the 10th best offense but that's as far as I would do. 

I'm not a gambler but even if I were, I would not wager on this team right now. Too many changes/unknowns. I have no idea what to expect. The O should be better - IF - Brooks and Johnson can stay healthy for most of the season. IF Kelce stays healthy. IF whoever plays LT is better than JP last year which is not a huge expectation. Lots of IFs. 14 different O line combinations again this year and likely a similar result. That doesn't consider all new coaches.

[UK_EaglesFan89]

6 hours ago, eglz1 said:

I'm not a gambler but even if I were, I would not wager on this team right now. Too many changes/unknowns. I have no idea what to expect. The O should be better - IF - Brooks and Johnson can stay healthy for most of the season. IF Kelce stays healthy. IF whoever plays LT is better than JP last year which is not a huge expectation. Lots of IFs. 14 different O line combinations again this year and likely a similar result. That doesn't consider all new coaches.

I guess the unknowns are better than teams who know that they suck. But yeah you're right there are a lot of unknowns with this team. 

[PoconoDon]

Best case scenario: The Eagles win the Super Bowl.

Worst case scenario: The Eagles go 8-9 as Hurts proves totally inept, miss the playoffs, and the Colts, led by their backup QB since week 3 lose the AFC Championship game to  the Miami Dolphins who go on to win the Super Bowl. Eagles pick 20, 32 and 62(Colts).

[UK_EaglesFan89]

5 hours ago, PoconoDon said:

Worst case scenario: The Eagles go 8-9 as Hurts proves totally inept, miss the playoffs, and the Colts, led by their backup QB since week 3 lose the AFC Championship game to  the Miami Dolphins who go on to win the Super Bowl. Eagles pick 20, 32 and 62(Colts).

Would we pick at 20 if we miss the play offs? 😁

[PoconoDon]

5 hours ago, UK_EaglesFan89 said:

Would we pick at 20 if we miss the play offs? 😁

HAHA! Not any more...OK how's 18th? 

[time2rock]

On 5/10/2021 at 2:37 AM, UK_EaglesFan89 said:

I mean yeah that's absolutely the best case but how realistic is that? It's hard to gauge this team because of the unknowns. 

You don't think it is realistic to consider Hurts can develop into a solid starting QB here in time?  I didn't mean in insinuate he leads us on a deep playoff run this year ... this team as a whole is still a ways off from being complete enough to compete.  My "best case scenario" simply indicates Hurts shows enough progress/improvement this upcoming year that they will feel pretty good about him for (minimally) the near future and can use those three 1st rd draft picks (expected) to add top talent to other positions - that would go a long way to getting the roster close to contention level.  

[UK_EaglesFan89]

7 hours ago, time2rock said:

You don't think it is realistic to consider Hurts can develop into a solid starting QB here in time?  I didn't mean in insinuate he leads us on a deep playoff run this year ... this team as a whole is still a ways off from being complete enough to compete.  My "best case scenario" simply indicates Hurts shows enough progress/improvement this upcoming year that they will feel pretty good about him for (minimally) the near future and can use those three 1st rd draft picks (expected) to add top talent to other positions - that would go a long way to getting the roster close to contention level.  

Oh I think Hurts can develop in to a decent starting QB for sure. I think Hurts can be a stop gap to be honest. Someone who's just good enough that we can build a really good roster around him and then when the time is right strike for a QB.