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Eagles looking like future 'sellers,' but should have incredible draft capital


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Eagles looking like future 'sellers,' but should have incredible draft capital

Kempski_Headshot_2016-Final.jpg
BY JIMMY KEMPSKI
PhillyVoice Staff

101821JeffreyLurie

BILL STREICHER/USA TODAY SPORTS

Jeffrey Lurie owns the Eagles, so here's a picture of him.

The Philadelphia Eagles were idle on Sunday, after dropping a Thursday night home game to the reigning champion Tampa Bay Buccaneers. As such, Eagles fans weren't subjected to Eagles football, and could merely watch the rest of the NFL's slate of games, stress-free. 

Around the league, there were some good results for the Eagles, and some bad ones. After six weeks of the 2021 NFL season, the Eagles' place within the NFC hierarchy is becoming clearer.

Let's start with the bad.

The Cowboys found a way to win in overtime on the road in New England on a day in which they didn't have their "A-game." At 5-1, they are running away with the NFC East, as they have at least a three-game advantage over every other team in the division.

NFC East  Record  Div  GB 
Cowboys  5-1  2-0 
Football Team  2-4  1-1 
Eagles  2-4  0-1 
Giants  1-5  0-2 


FiveThirtyEight.com has the Cowboys as 88 percent likely to win the division. That feels like a low projection. This is not 2019 or 2020, when you could be bad for the better part of the season, and an NFC East title was always still within reach. The Cowboys have a legitimately good team in 2021, and could realistically have the division wrapped up by Thanksgiving.

Otherwise, if you take out the division leaders — the Cardinals, Packers, Buccaneers, and Cowboys — the Eagles are ninth in the wildcard hunt.

NFC Wildcard  Record  Conf  GB 
Rams  5-1  4-1  +2 
Saints  3-2  2-2  +0.5 
Vikings  3-3  3-1 
Bears  3-3  1-2 
Panthers  3-3  1-3 
49ers  2-3  2-3  0.5 
Falcons  2-3  1-3  0.5 
Football Team  2-4  2-1 
Eagles  2-4  2-3  1 
Seahawks  2-4  1-2 
Giants  1-5  1-4 
Lions  0-6  0-4 

If you're an optimist, you might make the point that the Eagles are only one game out of the race for the third wildcard spot, with a bunch of crappy opponents on the horizon. You might also be of the belief that the experience of making the playoffs — even if only to get stomped in the first round of the playoffs by the No. 2 seed — would be better than maximizing the value of team's own first round pick in the 2022 NFL Draft.

If you're a pessimist and/or a realist, it's pretty easy to identify this this team can't hang with the top 5 teams — the Cardinals, Packers, Buccaneers, Cowboys, and Rams — in the NFC.

After Howie Roseman traded Zach Ertz to the 6-0 Cardinals, he was asked if other older players might be dealt at the trade deadline if the season continues to go south. 

"I don't view us as being sellers," Roseman said. "I view us as still having an opportunity in the next 11 games to show what kind of team we are."

Certainly, Roseman wasn't going to answer that question by saying, "Yep, this season is toast. It's fire sale time." That's a message that would not be received well by the players, especially with 11 games to go, and would do nothing to preserve the illusion of leverage to other teams potentially interested in available players.

The Eagles have a very small number of good, older players that don't have bad or immovable contracts, so the Eagles can't be heavy sellers, but they should very clearly be willing to explore trading off aging and/or underutilized players to further bolster their draft capital.

And now, the good. 

With the Miami Dolphins' loss to the the previously winless Jacksonville Jaguars on Sunday, the Eagles — who own the Dolphins' first-round pick in the 2022 NFL Draft — may have themselves an extremely valuable asset. 

The Dolphins have looked like one of the worst teams in the NFL through the first six weeks of the season, and they were lifeless at times against Jacksonville, who had lost 20 straight games heading into that matchup. That Dolphins pick is looking very likely to land in the top 5 of the 2022 NFL Draft, and it's not out of the question that it could be as high as No. 1 overall.

Meanwhile, as you're no doubt aware, the Eagles also own the Colts' second round pick in the 2022 draft, which can become a first-round pick if Carson Wentz either plays 75 percent of the Colts' offensive snaps, or he plays 70 percent of their snaps and they make the playoffs.

To date, the injury-prone Wentz has only missed five snaps the entire season, and the Colts have been slow getting out of the gates this season, starting 2-4. For the Eagles' purposes, the Colts are right in the sweet spot of mostly looking bad so far this season, while also staying in the hunt in the AFC South, because their biggest competition  — the Tennessee Titans — have not yet pulled away from them.

Because Wentz has played reasonably well enough, and because the Colts are still in the hunt despite their 2-4 record, the likelihood that the Colts will pull Wentz at some point in order to preserve their first round pick feels low.

If the season ended today (it doesn't), the Eagles would own the third, eighth, and ninth overall picks in the 2022 NFL Draft. Via Tankathon:

 
101821TankathonAfterWeek6

There's a long way to go in the 2021 season, but the Eagles would have all sorts of opportunities in the 2022 NFL Draft — whether that be trading up, trading back, trading for established players, or "sticking and picking" — if they had three picks land in the top half of the first round.

The 2021 season could be frustrating to watch the rest of the way, because of what we sort of already knew this roster to be, which is old, expensive, and not very good. But the potential for a promising future lies ahead. 

https://www.phillyvoice.com/eagles-nfl-trade-deadline-rumors-buyers-sellers-draft-picks-2022-colts-dolphins-nfc-east-race-cowboys-analysis/

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I normally would feel great about having "incredible draft capital" ... then I realize who is using that capital.  Howie will either deal all or most of those high picks for Watson (which would suck), use some to move up for a QB that HE ranks high on HIS board despite the info from the scouts telling him to draft a different QB (which would suck just as much), or if we decide to go in a different direction than QB, he will use those picks on the next Reagor, Dillard, etc.  His first round drafting has been absolutely horrendous.  His last 7 first rd picks:

Smith, Reagor, Dillard, Barnett, Wentz, Agholor, Marcus Smith.  Hitting on 1 out of 7 makes me feel more nervous than good about having 3 first rd picks (potentially) this year.

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I would feel good about the draft capital if there was an elite QB prospect within reach in round 1. There are none.

Given that QB is the #1 need on this team, or any team without a top QB, and given that there are none available for trade or as Free Agents, reaching via a QB selection early is clearly a huge mistake. Therefore, some of that draft capital must be moved into 2023 so that they can strike at a better pool of QB prospects. maybe they can take a flyer on a guy in the 3rd round or later but a top 10 pick? No way. Not this year. 

I am not confident that Howie Roseman can put the Eagles in position to get what they need the following year while still adding talent this year with the remaining picks. Hell, I'm not confident he could do it if he had TEN 1st round picks this year. His kick the can down the road strategy for the salary cap doesn't help him fill in via free agency when hew blows draft picks.

The scouting department could rebuild without him but his constant need to overrule them out of his own insecurities is maddening to watch. I think Howie will find zero difference makers in either draft, and only after he has exhausted the extra draft capital in utter failure might Lurie replace him as GM...and I mean might (<50% chance), not would... I think he will still keep him.

As for Lurie, I will never understand why he keeps Howie in the role he is in. Maybe Lurie's personality requires a sycophant agreeing with him constantly. Whatever the reason, Howie's ineptitude as a GM has resulted in dragging the roster and coaching staff down to well below mediocrity with no ability to make a meaningful correction in sight.

2017 was the highest of highs for the fans. We are now entering a period of the lowest of lows. Strap in if you're an Eagles fan, because the next 3-5 years is probably going to be rough.

 

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2 hours ago, PoconoDon said:

I would feel good about the draft capital if there was an elite QB prospect within reach in round 1. There are none.

Given that QB is the #1 need on this team, or any team without a top QB, and given that there are none available for trade or as Free Agents, reaching via a QB selection early is clearly a huge mistake. Therefore, some of that draft capital must be moved into 2023 so that they can strike at a better pool of QB prospects. maybe they can take a flyer on a guy in the 3rd round or later but a top 10 pick? No way. Not this year. 

I am not confident that Howie Roseman can put the Eagles in position to get what they need the following year while still adding talent this year with the remaining picks. Hell, I'm not confident he could do it if he had TEN 1st round picks this year. His kick the can down the road strategy for the salary cap doesn't help him fill in via free agency when hew blows draft picks.

The scouting department could rebuild without him but his constant need to overrule them out of his own insecurities is maddening to watch. I think Howie will find zero difference makers in either draft, and only after he has exhausted the extra draft capital in utter failure might Lurie replace him as GM...and I mean might (<50% chance), not would... I think he will still keep him.

As for Lurie, I will never understand why he keeps Howie in the role he is in. Maybe Lurie's personality requires a sycophant agreeing with him constantly. Whatever the reason, Howie's ineptitude as a GM has resulted in dragging the roster and coaching staff down to well below mediocrity with no ability to make a meaningful correction in sight.

2017 was the highest of highs for the fans. We are now entering a period of the lowest of lows. Strap in if you're an Eagles fan, because the next 3-5 years is probably going to be rough.

 

Completely agree and have been saying the exact same.  I feel the best strategy would be to move one of those 1st rd picks to 2023 (picking up possibly a late 2022 1st and a 2nd ... or maybe both, depending on how far we trade down) in the process.  That still gives us plenty of ammo to add quite a few (potentially) elite prospects to this roster and still leave us in good position to make a move for a QB in 2023.  

I also completely agree with the concerns over Howie using those picks properly (taking players HE has ranked high on HIS board despite all the info from the scouts telling him otherwise).  I think we are in for a really dark period the next few years.  I just hope if that does happen that it is finally enough to convince Lurie to can him.  Really wish it wouldn't take that much to come to that conclusion. 

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At this point, If the eagles don't think Hurts is the guy, they should go with Minshew and not waste a ton of capital on another question mark.

Minshew put up some good numbers with a bad jaguars team.  Plus he brings energy and attitude.  With the skill players the eagles have, I'd be curious to see what this kid could do.  

The eagles should spend considerable draft picks on defensive players.....

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37 minutes ago, birdman#12 said:

At this point, If the eagles don't think Hurts is the guy, they should go with Minshew and not waste a ton of capital on another question mark.

Minshew put up some good numbers with a bad jaguars team.  Plus he brings energy and attitude.  With the skill players the eagles have, I'd be curious to see what this kid could do.  

The eagles should spend considerable draft picks on defensive players.....

Minshew is still under contract next year.  I'd continue to play Hurts for the remainder of 2021 to see if he can learn from the mistakes he is making (not uncommon for a player with so little starting experience).  If there are still as many question marks around him at the end of the season as we began 2021 with, then I'd have a legitimate QB competition between he and Minshew next offseason for the right to be the starting QB in 2022.  I would just hate to spend a high pick on a QB prospect that isn't special or rated highly simply because we have a need there.  Most areas of the roster need an infusion of young talent ... add pieces where we can to build the best team possible and if the need is still there after the 2022 season, add a QB in 2023 to hopefully will be a much stronger team.  

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I'm not opposed to see them trade all 3 granted we get the Colts 1st and keep moving back and pick up either some 2s or 1s in 2022 this team needs so much help and fresh faces all over the roster... 

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11 minutes ago, time2rock said:

Minshew is still under contract next year.  I'd continue to play Hurts for the remainder of 2021 to see if he can learn from the mistakes he is making (not uncommon for a player with so little starting experience).  If there are still as many question marks around him at the end of the season as we began 2021 with, then I'd have a legitimate QB competition between he and Minshew next offseason for the right to be the starting QB in 2022.  I would just hate to spend a high pick on a QB prospect that isn't special or rated highly simply because we have a need there.  Most areas of the roster need an infusion of young talent ... add pieces where we can to build the best team possible and if the need is still there after the 2022 season, add a QB in 2023 to hopefully will be a much stronger team.  

I agree.......I was just wondering what the Eagles FO thinks about Hurts right now.  I too don't want them to throw more draft capital at a project......It's possible that Howie has already made up his mind......which is really unfair to Hurts but won't be any different for a new young QB being drafted......he simply won't get the needed time to develop......

Like I said, the "new" old cleveland browns.

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1 hour ago, birdman#12 said:

I agree.......I was just wondering what the Eagles FO thinks about Hurts right now.  I too don't want them to throw more draft capital at a project......It's possible that Howie has already made up his mind......which is really unfair to Hurts but won't be any different for a new young QB being drafted......he simply won't get the needed time to develop......

Like I said, the "new" old cleveland browns.

I think the Eagles are smarter then people give them credit for.

They knew that Jalen Hurts was a project, which is why he lasted until the second. I would imagine their original goal was to take a talented, but flawed prospect and train him up. Then they could either trade him for picks later or use him as a QB if the starter failed or became injured again.

When Wentz forced his way out, they forced them to move the timeline up for Hurts. It doesnt mean that he got better all of the sudden, it is just that they needed him now.

So they hired a young staff and they started to invest in a youth movement. They knew that this year was going to painful, they said in so many words throughout the off season. That is why they are trading assets and building draft picks. I think their view on Hurts hasn't changed - he is a talented player that still needs to learn the finer things about the position.

The one thing about him is that he is built for Philly in that he can ignore all the outside noise and the pressure that the fans and media place on their athletes. That is the one thing that all the scouting in the world can never account for - how difficult it is to play here.

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30 minutes ago, pallidrone said:

I think the Eagles are smarter then people give them credit for.

They knew that Jalen Hurts was a project, which is why he lasted until the second. I would imagine their original goal was to take a talented, but flawed prospect and train him up. Then they could either trade him for picks later or use him as a QB if the starter failed or became injured again.

When Wentz forced his way out, they forced them to move the timeline up for Hurts. It doesnt mean that he got better all of the sudden, it is just that they needed him now.

So they hired a young staff and they started to invest in a youth movement. They knew that this year was going to painful, they said in so many words throughout the off season. That is why they are trading assets and building draft picks. I think their view on Hurts hasn't changed - he is a talented player that still needs to learn the finer things about the position.

The one thing about him is that he is built for Philly in that he can ignore all the outside noise and the pressure that the fans and media place on their athletes. That is the one thing that all the scouting in the world can never account for - how difficult it is to play here.

Good Post........but drafting him in the 2nd, when there were so many other needs, is simply inexplicable and unnecessary.   A 2nd round draft pick is a valuable commodity and I can't see the sense in drafting a project QB with that pick. 

If Hurts was a 3rd or 4th rounder, an argument can be made.  I hope their view of Hurts goes beyond this year......it's simply not fair to him to give him one year with a struggling first year head coach.

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12 minutes ago, birdman#12 said:

Good Post........but drafting him in the 2nd, when there were so many other needs, is simply inexplicable and unnecessary.   A 2nd round draft pick is a valuable commodity and I can't see the sense in drafting a project QB with that pick. 

If Hurts was a 3rd or 4th rounder, an argument can be made.  I hope their view of Hurts goes beyond this year......it's simply not fair to him to give him one year with a struggling first year head coach.

I agree. The only caveat to that is what did their draft board say - Was Hurts ranked much higher then any other prospect at that time and they decided to go with BPA, versus need? That they needed a backup QB anyway, he was ranked very high on their board and they decided that the risk was worth taking a talented player.

Not saying it was right, just playing devil's advocate here.

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1 minute ago, pallidrone said:

I agree. The only caveat to that is what did their draft board say - Was Hurts ranked much higher then any other prospect at that time and they decided to go with BPA, versus need? That they needed a backup QB anyway, he was ranked very high on their board and they decided that the risk was worth taking a talented player.

Not saying it was right, just playing devil's advocate here.

True, who knows what their board said......but as a Fan, I was and still am baffled by the pick

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Never should have drafted Hurts in 2nd round.. Jeremy Chinn was there for the picking but again smartest guy in the room blows another year of our top picks.

No trust in this organization with Howie doing or having any say in the picks.

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The F.O. is Problem #1. Until Jeffrey Lurie replaces Howie with a true top shelf GM, nothing meaningful will change for the better. It'll just be same old, same old.

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