European parliament is set to declare Hungary is no longer a full democracy, since invoking Article 7 in 2018

 

It appears that Italy wants to get the band back together. No doubt, we showed them the way back to the 1920s.

MIGA?


 

Quote

THE POST'S VIEW

Opinion 

 

 Danger lurks after Italy’s shocking election

By the Editorial Board

September 26, 2022 at 2:04 p.m. EDT

 

Italy has voted for a new government, likely to be led by a prime minister whose party arose from the ashes of post-World War II Italian fascism. The rise of Giorgia Meloni, the firebrand ethno-nationalist seemingly victorious in Sunday’s elections, has sent shock waves through Europe and triggered fears that Italy might be the Achilles’ heel in Western resolve to resist Russia’s bloody campaign in Ukraine.

In fact, it would be a stretch to regard Ms. Meloni, who would be Italy’s first female premier, as a fascist. And, having dropped her former admiration for Russian dictator Vladimir Putin, she has been unstinting in backing NATO’s support for Ukraine — although the same cannot be said of her probable coalition partners in Italy’s legislature. She has also tempered her erstwhile rhetoric suggesting she would splinter the European Union, possibly because Italy depends on enormous infusions of E.U. pandemic relief funds.

Yet there remains ample cause for concern about Ms. Meloni, who is set to govern one of the world’s largest economies despite her own modest credentials in government. She is the latest in a string of extremists who have performed well in European elections this year, including nationalists in France, Hungary and Sweden. Her apparent victory is more evidence that far-right leaders are ascendant in a continent buffeted by immigration, economic head winds and, on its eastern flank, the most destructive war in three-quarters of a century.

Political upheaval is the default in Italy, which has had 69 governments in the 77 years since World War II ended. Still, Ms. Meloni’s premiership would be a watershed event. Amid a drumbeat of anti-immigrant rhetoric — she warns darkly that ethnic Italians are in danger of "replacement” — she has advanced the farfetched idea of a naval blockade to stop unauthorized foreigners from reaching Italian shores. That’s unlikely to work. It’s also a toxic echo of the fierce antisemitism of Mussolini, the World War II dictator whom Ms. Meloni once openly admired.

Henry Olsen: Fears about Italy’s Giorgia Meloni are overblown. But don’t underestimate her.

Her intolerance is also directed at LGBTQ people, for whom her government might make life more challenging in the only major E.U. country that has not legalized same-sex marriage. Framing her views as pro-family, she has vowed to block same-sex adoptions and surrogacy.

Her party and its right-wing coalition partners include figures who might threaten free and fair elections if given their druthers; many would emulate Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, who has gutted key aspects of that country’s democracy. However, Ms. Meloni’s bloc will lack the votes in Italy’s Parliament to tamper with constitutional protections for Italian democratic institutions.

The lurking danger of a Meloni government is to Europe’s ability to withstand Mr. Putin’s attempts to break Western anti-Kremlin sanctions, using Europe’s dependence on Russian energy exports as leverage. Italy’s economy is chronically anemic, and many Italians will suffer as Moscow’s pressure mounts. That will test Ms. Meloni’s determination to hold the line, especially given that one of her coalition partners, Matteo Salvini of the League party, opposes sanctions, and the other, former prime minister Silvio Berlusconi, is an apologist for the Russian authoritarian.

Washington, NATO and the E.U. must use their considerable leverage to ensure Ms. Meloni’s spine remains stiff.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2022/09/26/italy-election-giorgia-meloni-russia-ukraine/

 

Quote

Foreign Affairs Desk, Part I: Il Duchessa

Benito Mussolini was Il Duce. And now, Italy has elected as prime minister the 21st century, female equivalent to Mussolini in Giorgia Meloni. We're not sure if "Il Duchessa" will catch on, especially since it's not 100% grammatically correct as a counterpart to Il Duce. But if it does, we want credit.

Meloni began her political career as a member of the far-right Italian Social Movement, before moving on to membership in, and eventual leadership of, the Fratelli d'Italia (Brothers of Italy). Consistent with the party platform, Meloni is anti-immigrant, anti-LGBTQ marriage, anti-abortion, and anti-secular, and has occasionally expressed admiration for notable NSDAPs. This makes Meloni the most far-right leader in Europe, outside of Viktor Orbán in Hungary, and it has earned her the label "neo-fascist." The fact that she would be right at home in the Trump wing of the modern Republican Party may be instructive as to where the GOP stands these days. Although, in fairness to Meloni, she's not pro-Putin, so that might put her at odds with some of her American compatriots.

We are hardly experts in Italian politics, of course. Italian food? Maybe, but not Italian politics. So, we reached out to regular correspondent M.M. in Milan for a report:

We broke a glass ceiling: For the first time we'll have a female premier. Never happened before. and this is, irrespective of political preferences, a historic result. And yes, we'll have a post-fascist premier; that's another first.

So, what's going on? Giorgia Meloni, the new premier, leads "Fratelli d'Italia." It is an identity-based party; the literal meaning is "Brothers of Italy. (Yes, we have some dystopian issues, right now.) She (and her party) capitalized on the fact that they have been always in the opposition. It's actually quite easy to oppose anything, especially when you are the only party that is not governing. We had a "national solidarity" government with Mario Draghi, gathering everybody except her party, and that didn't work out so well. In this election, she managed to get 25-26% of the vote, and that was enough foundation to build a governing coalition upon.

So, is it a vulnus of democracy? I mean, shall we deem it a problem? The leftist coalition was simply underwhelming, and the leader (Enrico Letta from Partito Democratico) just resigned. Although I am not pleased with the results, it is simply democracy. Giorgia Meloni won. Now, let her govern. Her party rode a huge wave of discontent. Those of us on the left didn't have any answer for many things, she gave simple solutions to complex problems, and that is it. Now it is time to deliver actual programs.

That said, I fear that we're heading in a dire direction. If she does deliver on her promises we'll be heading towards a less liberal state, starting with immigration (her party is against any form of it) to LGBTQ+ rights, not to mention less weighty issues such as cannabis legalization. I think that most of the people who voted for her said: "OK, let's try that one," without caring for the actual policies.

We'll have to wait for things to happen; European authorities have been quite timid, and shrugged: "OK, that's the result." Part of me is totally scared about the outcome; another part is just saying, "That's democracy, babe." Maybe I have yet to grapple with the definitive results, and I guess that, once Giorgia Meloni and her party are in power, they will be much more "normalized." They still are neo-fascist, they still give a Roman salute, and that's quite scary.

Thanks, M.M.!

There is also an American angle to this story, as the usual suspects—your Lauren Boeberts and your Marjorie Taylor Greenes—are celebrating this result as a great victory for Trumpism. For example:

 

Fair enough. If there's one group that's not destructive, it's fascists, right?

Oh wait, maybe not. In fact, as is usual for Boebert, et al., this assessment is asinine. The choices made by Italian voters have little to do with Donald Trump, and even to the extent they do, 25% (or so) of the vote is hardly a rousing endorsement. In fact, there's an argument to be made that Meloni's victory is something of a repudiation of Trump. Ryan Heath, writing for Politico observes that right-wing populism seems to work better when there's some discipline behind it. So, Liz Truss over Boris Johnson, Meloni over previous neo-fascist leader Gianfranco Fini, Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL) over Trump. We won't know until 2024, really, if the pattern holds in the U.S., but the argument potentially has merit.

And actually, we don't really know yet if the pattern holds in Italy. This is a country that changes governments more often than some people change their underwear. And, as M.M. points out, Meloni has little in the way of actual governing experience. So, Italy might be right back to square one 6 months from now. Or 6 weeks.

 

 

Trumpsters did it!

 

Iran the next global superpower ?

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11625703/Iran-vows-station-warships-Panama-canal-building-ties-Latin-American-dictators.html

 

Clear violation of the Monroe doctrine. Honestly with all of the asylum seekers flooding in from those countries, they need to be cleaned out anyway.

Saying the quiet part out loud

Quote

SEOUL — President Yoon Suk Yeol of South Korea said for the first time on Wednesday that if North Korea’s nuclear threat grows, South Korea would consider building nuclear weapons of its own or ask the United States to redeploy them on the Korean Peninsula.  Speaking during a joint policy briefing by his defense and foreign ministries on Wednesday, Mr. Yoon was quick to add that building nuclear weapons was not yet an official policy. He stressed that South Korea would for now deal with North Korea’s nuclear threat by strengthening its alliance with the United States.  Such a policy includes finding ways to increase the reliability of Washington’s commitment to protect its ally with all of its defense capabilities, including nuclear weapons.

Mr. Yoon’s comments marked the first time since the United States withdrew all of its nuclear weapons from the South in 1991 that a South Korean president officially mentioned arming the country with nuclear weapons. Washington removed its nuclear weapons from South Korea as part of its global nuclear arms reduction efforts.  "It’s possible that the problem gets worse and our country will introduce tactical nuclear weapons or build them on our own,” said Mr. Yoon, according to a transcript of his comments released by his office. "If that’s the case, we can have our own nuclear weapons pretty quickly, given our scientific and technological capabilities.”

South Korea is a signatory of the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty, or NPT, which bans the country from seeking nuclear weapons. It also signed a joint declaration with North Korea in 1991 in which both Koreas agreed not to "test, manufacture, produce, receive, possess, store, deploy or use nuclear weapons.”  But North Korea has reneged on the agreement by conducting six nuclear tests since 2006. Years of negotiations have failed to remove a single nuclear warhead in the North. (American and South Korean officials say that North Korea could conduct another nuclear test, its seventh, at any moment.)  As North Korea vowed to expand its nuclear arsenal and threatened to use it against the South in recent months, voices have grown in South Korea — among analysts and within Mr. Yoon’s conservative ruling People Power Party — calling for Seoul to reconsider a nuclear option.  Mr. Yoon’s comments this week were likely to fuel such discussions. Opinion surveys in recent years have shown that a majority of South Koreans supported the United States redeploying nuclear weapons to the South or the country’s building an arsenal of its own.

Tensions on the Korean Peninsula started rising in 2017, when North Korea tested three intercontinental ballistic missiles and conducted a nuclear test. The United Nations imposed sanctions, and Pyongyang stopped testing nuclear and long-range missiles for a time.  Former President Donald Trump met with Kim Jong-un, the North Korean leader, three times between 2018 and 2019, hoping to reach a deal on North Korea’s nuclear and missile programs. After the talks broke down, North Korea resumed missile testing.  North Korea started a new round of testing in September 2021 after a six-month hiatus. It subsequently completed several tests, including the firing of multiple intermediate-range and intercontinental ballistic missiles, that violated the 2017 U.N. resolutions.  Mr. Kim has launched a record number of missiles and focused on developing new ones in 2022. The North Korean leader has said that a "neo-Cold War" is emerging and has vowed to expand his country’s nuclear capabilities against South Korea "exponentially.”

Policymakers in Seoul have disavowed the option for decades, arguing that the so-called nuclear-umbrella protection from the United States would keep the country safe from North Korea.  "President Yoon’s comment could turn out to be a watershed moment in the history of South Korea’s national security,” said Cheon Seong-whun, a former head of the Korea Institute for National Unification, a government-funded research think tank in Seoul. ”It could shift its paradigm in how to deal with the North Korean nuclear threat.”  Calls for nuclear weapons have bubbled up in South Korea over the decades, but they have never gained traction beyond the occasional analysts and right-wing politicians.  Under its former military dictator Park Chung-hee, South Korea embarked on a covert nuclear weapons program in the 1970s, when the United States began reducing its military presence in the South, making its people feel vulnerable to North Korean attacks. Washington forced him to abandon the program, promising to keep the ally under its nuclear umbrella. 

Washington still keeps 28,500 American troops in South Korea as the symbol of the alliance. But in recent months, North Korea has continued testing missiles, some of which were designed to deliver nuclear warheads to the South. Many South Koreans have questioned whether the United States would stop North Korea from attacking their country, especially at the risk of leaving American cities and military bases in the Asia-Pacific region more vulnerable to a nuclear attack. Washington’s repeated promise to protect its ally — with its own nuclear weapons, if necessary — has not dissipated such fear.  In its 2022 Nuclear Posture Review, a document that outlines Washington’s nuclear policy for the next five to 10 years, the Pentagon itself noted the "deterrence dilemmas” that the North posed to the United States. "A crisis or conflict on the Korean Peninsula could involve a number of nuclear-armed actors, raising the risk of broader conflict,” it said.  "If South Korea possesses nuclear weapons, the United States will not need to ask whether it should use its own nuclear weapons to defend its ally, and the alliance will never be put to a test,” said Cheong Seong-chang, a senior analyst at the Sejong Institute in South Korea. "If South Korea owns nuclear weapons, the U.S. will actually become safer.”  By declaring an intention to arm itself with nuclear weapons, South Korea could force North Korea to rethink its own nuclear weapons program and possibly prompt China to put pressure on Pyongyang to roll back its program, Mr. Cheong said. China has long feared a regional nuclear arms race in East Asia.  South Korea would need to quit the NPT to build its own arsenal. Analysts said that quitting the NPT would be too risky for the South because it could trigger international sanctions.

Some lawmakers affiliated with Mr. Yoon’s party and analysts like Mr. Cheon want the United States to reintroduce American nuclear weapons to the South and forge a nuclear-sharing agreement with Seoul, similar to the one in which NATO aircraft would be allowed to carry American nuclear weapons in wartime.  The American Embassy had no immediate comment on Mr. Yoon’s statement. Washington’s official policy is to make the Korean Peninsula free of nuclear weapons, fearing that if Seoul were to build nuclear weapons, it could trigger a regional arms race and eliminate any hope of ridding North Korea of its nuclear weapons.  Mr. Yoon himself reiterated on Thursday that his country remained committed to the NPT, at least for now. He said on Wednesday — and his Defense Ministry reiterated on Thursday — that the more "realistic means” of countering the North Korean threat would be through joint deterrence with the United States.

His government said the allies will introduce tabletop exercises from next month to test their combined capabilities to deal with a North Korean nuclear attack and to help reassure Washington’s commitment to its ally. Mr. Yoon also said his military will boost its own "massive punishment and retaliation” program, arming itself with more powerful missiles and other conventional weapons to threaten the North’s leadership.  Tensions have been on the rise in Korea in recent weeks, as Mr. Yoon’s government responded to the North’s provocations with its own escalatory steps, like dispatching fighter jets in response to drones from the North.  "We must squash the North’s desire to provoke,” he said on Wednesday.

 

F*** you China

Quote

FBI agents raided a Manhattan building in the fall of 2022 that was allegedly being used as a secret Chinese police station and was staffed with 'illegal cops' who solved crimes.  The raid occurred at the headquarters of the American Changle Association, a non-profit that helps Chinese nationals who live in New York. The group's former chairman was Lu Jianshun, who in 2021 donated $4,000 to Eric Adams' mayoral campaign, reports The New York Times.  The police station was located on the third floor of the organization's building. The police unit is linked to a unit code named 110 Overseas, based in China's Fujian province.  The US Attorney's Office, who participated in the raid with the FBI, told DailyMail.com, 'No comment,' when asked to authenticate the Times story. 

In October, DailyMail.com visited the office which is on top a ramen shop and next to an acupuncturist where a receptionist was surprised to hear it was a secret police station. It was closed and locals said it seldom opened.  The American Changle Association, located along East Broadway in downtown Manhattan, was raided in the Fall of 2022. The alleged police station was located on the third floor.  The raid occurred at the headquarters of the American Changle Association, a non-profit that helps Chinese interests in New York. The group's former chairman was Lu Jianshun, who donated $4,000 to Eric Adams' mayoral campaign©.  The public was alerted to the existence of the secret Chinese police stations thanks to reporting from the Europe-based human rights organization Safeguard Defenders which published a research study in September detailing more than 100 secret Chinese law enforcement installations worldwide. 

The Fall 2022 raid is the first known raid by law enforcement on a secret police station in the US. According to the Safeguard Defenders, there are two secret Chinese police stations in New York, one in Los Angeles and one in an undisclosed location.  The Times report notes that it is not clear if Lu Jianshun, who also goes by Jimmy Lu, is a target for the Feds.  The article did not mention any arrests in the wake of the raid but said that materials were seized from the offices.  In October 2022, Mayor Eric Adams appeared at a gala held by the American Changle Association, reports the New York Post. Just a few months earlier, the group's tax-exempt status was pulled by the IRS.  The Times article adds that reports in China have described the operations as 'overseas police service centers' which aid in solving crimes in their designated countries without collaborating with local officials.   In a statement on the Times story, the Chinese Embassy in Washington DC said: 'They are not police personnel from China. There is no need to make people nervous about this.' 

In response to previous reports about secret police stations, Chinese embassies and consulates have downplayed their existence and said that the offices merely help citizens to renew documents such as driver's licenses.  Around the same time as the raid, a secret Chinese police station in Ireland was ordered to shut by government officials while authorities in the Netherlands began to probe similar operations.  Many of the stations are open in Western Europe, with only four in North America.  Chinese president Xi Jingping pictured on January 9, China's Embassy in Washington acknowledged the existence of volunteer-run sites in the United States, but said they were not 'police stations' or 'police service centers.

In November, Beijing pushed back on claims it was operating 'police stations' on U.S. soil, calling the sites volunteer-run, after the FBI director said the same month he was 'very concerned' about unauthorized stations that have been linked to Beijing's influence operations.   FBI Director Christopher Wray told a Senate hearing in 2022 that it was 'outrageous' that the Chinese government would attempt to set up a police presence in the United States, saying it 'violates sovereignty and circumvents standard judicial and law enforcement cooperation processes.'  At the time, China's Embassy in Washington acknowledged the existence of volunteer-run sites in the United States, but said they were not 'police stations' or 'police service centers.' 

Republicans in the U.S. Congress, including Representative Jim Banks, have requested answers from the Biden administration about the operations of the sites.  Rights activists say the sites are an extension of Beijing's efforts to pressure some Chinese nationals or their relatives abroad to return to China to face criminal charges, and have tied them to activities of China's United Front Work Department, a Chinese Communist Party body charged with spreading its influence and propaganda overseas.  Mark Clifford, president of the Committee for Freedom in Hong Kong Foundation, said such stations needed to be 'stopped in their tracks.'  'By allowing the CCP to operate these types of institutions in their countries, international governments are complicit in Beijing's actions,' Clifford said.

According to Safeguard Defenders, there are 102 overseas police stations in 53 countries, including 11 in Italy, the highest number of any foreign nation.  Chinese authorities have characterized the facilities as volunteer-run centers which help Chinese citizens renew documents and offer other services that were disrupted during the COVID-19 pandemic.  

 

 

 

 

Lambrecht was appointed prior to the Ukraine War, and was brought in to formalize Germany’s de facto pacifist strategic policy. She wasn’t personally, professionally or ideologically capable of the necessary shift to a more robust German defense policy.

Quote

Germany’s controversial Defense Minister Christine Lambrecht is reportedly set to step down as early as Monday, suffering the consequences from a series of blunders that hurt her credibility and increasingly weighed on Chancellor Olaf Scholz and his declared sea-change in German defense policy.  The news of Lambrecht’s expected resignation — which, more than 18 hours after a first report by German media outlet Bild, has been neither officially denied nor confirmed — plunges Scholz’s government into uncertainty less than a week ahead of a crucial meeting of Western defense officials.  The news comes amid growing international pressure to support Ukraine with German-made Leopard battle tanks. The U.K. on Saturday agreed to send next-generation Challenger tanks to the Ukrainian battlefield. 

Two officials in Berlin confirmed that Lambrecht’s immediate departure has been discussed in her Social Democratic Party (SPD). One official conceded that the leaked information about the expected resignation had left the government in turmoil as Scholz had not yet officially decided on a potential successor, causing a communication fiasco. A government spokesperson declined late Friday to comment on "rumors.” Lambrecht’s spokesperson could not be reached for a comment.  Lambrecht’s expected resignation is a bitter setback for Scholz, who had long defended his minister against mounting criticism and just two weeks ago said via a spokesperson that he considered her a "first-class defense minister.” Letting Lambrecht go would also mean an admission that the Social Democratic chancellor picked the wrong person for the job when he formed his government just over a year ago.  There is also a possibility that Scholz might use the occasion to announce a broader government reshuffle.

Since the start of the war in Ukraine, Lambrecht’s leadership style has come under fire, especially for failing to implement an increase in military spending pledged by Scholz under his Zeitenwende sea change in German defense and security policy, and despite the creation of a €100 billion investment fund for the Bundeswehr, the German armed forces. POLITICO reported last month that criticism was mounting amid ammunition shortages and revelations that Germany’s bold promise to invest "from now on, year after year” at least 2 percent of its economic output in defense had been put on hold, making the country a laggard in the NATO military alliance.

Lambrecht had also faced strong criticism for celebrating an early delivery of 5,000 helmets to Ukraine at the beginning of last year as "a clear signal” of support, then by taking her son on a helicopter flight as part of a personal holiday. The minister also lacked authority among her own troops and caused a stir when, six months into her job, she admitted in an interview to still not know the military service grades.  An awkward video published on social media on New Year’s Eve was likely the tipping point for Germany’s defense minister, prompting even close allies in her party to take distance. Standing against the backdrop of Berlin’s fireworks, Lambrecht said the war was "linked with many special impressions” and "many, many encounters with interesting, special people.”

Moreover, Lambrecht’s authority was widely seen as undermined after Scholz and U.S. President Joe Biden announced on January 5 that they would jointly send infantry fighting vehicles to Ukraine, despite Lambrecht just weeks earlier (at a time when Scholz and Biden had already discussed the delivery) saying that Germany had no such armored vehicles available.  This, as well as the fact that Lambrecht’s ministry had been left scrambling in recent days to organize the promised vehicles following Scholz’s announcement, prompted suggestions that the defense minister had not been closely involved in Scholz’s planning, although the government disputed that.

Western defense ministers will meet on Friday at the Ramstein military base in Germany, where Berlin is expected to allow partner countries like Poland and Finland to send their German-made Leopard battle tanks to Ukraine. German Vice Chancellor Robert Habeck already said on Thursday that Berlin should not stand in the way if partner countries wanted to organize such deliveries, and a government spokesperson said on Friday that Scholz shared Habeck’s position.  In saying on Saturday that it had agreed to send Challenger 2 tanks to Ukraine, the U.K. government noted "other international commitments in this vein, including Poland’s offer to provide a company of Leopard tanks,” according to a statement.

Scholz will now have to quickly nominate a successor for Lambrecht ahead of the key Ramstein meeting, with Eva Högl, the parliamentary commissioner for the armed forces, and Siemtje Möller, the junior defense minister — both also from the SPD — being named as potential candidates. Other potential names are SPD co-leader Lars Klingbeil, the SPD’s Labor Minister Hubertus Heil, and the SPD’s Wolfgang Schmidt, the head of Scholz’s chancellery.

Given that Interior Minister Nancy Faeser, also from the SPD, is expected to soon announce a run for prime minister in the German state of Hesse, which will hold elections in October, Scholz might also announce a broader reshuffle.

 

 

To nuke or not to nuke, that is the question.

 

Russia mortality crisis

Quote

Over the past decade, the Russian Federation has suffered increases in mortality unprecedented for an industrialized nation at peace. In Dire Demographics: Population Trends in the Russian Federation, authors Julie DaVanzo and Clifford Grammich examine the dimensions of this alarming trend, look at Russia's troubled health care system, and explore a range of policy options for reducing mortality rates. 

The statistics are stark: Between 1987 and 1994, the number of annual deaths in Russia increased from 1.5 million to 2.3 million. In seven of the past eight years, there have been at least two million deaths in Russia, and in each year since 1992, the number of deaths in Russia has exceeded the number of births, resulting in a net population loss. Mortality increases have been concentrated among working-age males, whose death rates now are about double what they were in the 1960s, when mortality rates first began to rise (Figure 1).

 

F*** off China

Quote

Beijing wants to be friends again.

Chinese diplomats are fanning out with a new softer message for international partners and adversaries alike. Gone is the aggressive "wolf warrior” rhetoric. In its place, a warmer tone and a promise of economic cooperation.  Vice Premier Liu He took Beijing’s diplomatic olive branch to the exclusive annual huddle of the global political and business elite in Davos, Switzerland this week. With a heated transatlantic trade spat exploding in panel after panel and melting the Swiss Alpine snow, Liu offered a kinder, gentler Beijing.  "China’s national reality dictates that opening up to the world is a must, not an expediency. We must open up wider and make it work better,” Liu said on Tuesday.

The Chinese charm offensive drove a lot of private conversations in Davos amid the World Economic Forum gathering. Executives are eager to learn more — and as always to explore opportunities in a market as big as China's. The shift, if real, would signal a return to something the Davos crowd considers more normal: a somewhat predictable, business-friendly Chinese communist leadership, more interested in making money than waging fights against internal critics or outside enemies. The improved economic relationship between China and Australia has fueled such optimism.

Western officials have heard the message as well, but are suspicious that the outreach is more diplomatic sparkle than an indication of substantive changes. They are leery that the growing economic and military threat posed by China remains despite the velvet gloves.  The shift has been gathering steam for weeks after China’s President Xi Jinping offered a warmer tone in his meeting with U.S. President Joe Biden in Bali in November. Xi urged a return to "healthy and stable growth” in bilateral relations.  That has set in motion a cascade of Chinese initiatives seemingly aimed at repairing the harm done by years of "wolf warrior”-style diplomacy; saber-rattling across the Taiwan Strait; a more bellicose military posture in the Indo-Pacific; economic coercion; and high-tech espionage.

China’s Foreign Ministry is rolling out a rhetorical red carpet for U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s visit in early February. Europe is bracing for a multi-country diplomacy spree by former Foreign Minister Wang Yi. On Wednesday in Zurich, U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen’s meeting with Liu reaped an invitation to visit China "in the near future.” And the Chinese Foreign Ministry signaled gentler public messaging by banishing pugnacious spokesperson Zhao Lijian to the bureaucratic backwater of the ministry's Department of Boundary and Ocean Affairs last week.  Western officials still have their guard up, though — particularly since Chinese diplomats were until recently issuing outright threats to their host countries.  "We are seeing a warmer Beijing that’s keen to talk about a business-as-usual approach, and there are fewer wolf warrior narratives,” an EU official told POLITICO on condition of anonymity because he isn’t authorized to speak on the record. "However, a softer face doesn’t necessarily mean a softer heart.”

That skepticism springs from the fact that Beijing isn’t matching its rhetorical expressions of bilateral goodwill with any substantive policy shifts. China’s "no limits” alignment with Russia continues even after Moscow’s war on Ukraine and record numbers of Chinese military aircraft regularly menace Taiwan. Beijing denies its well-documented abuses against Uyghur Muslims in Xinjiang and continues what the U.S. calls "unfair trade practices” that sustain billions of dollars of U.S. tariffs on Chinese imports.  There are also suspicions that China is seeking to prevent the imposition of additional crippling U.S. export restrictions on high-technology items such as semi-conductors — and slow down or derail U.S. efforts to persuade its allies to do likewise.  "Xi wants the American boot off his neck — he can't stomach any more tech containment or more sanctions and recognizes that a lot of [Beijing’s] foreign diplomacy has backfired and he wants to lower the temperature,” said Craig Singleton, senior China fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies. Beijing’s uptick in diplomatic outreach aims to "seek a reprieve from Washington's regulatory assault on China's tech sector, and then lay the groundwork to stimulate China's economy after this current COVID wave subsides,” Singleton said.

China is in desperate need of an international image overhaul. The results of a Pew Research survey published in June indicated "negative views of China remain at or near historic highs” in 19 European and Asian countries due to concerns about human rights and perceptions of a growing Chinese military threat. Pew Research Center survey results released in September revealed that 82 percent of Americans in 2022 had "an unfavorable opinion of China,” an increase from 76 percent the previous year.  Beijing’s change in tone reflects its alarm at the Biden administration’s success in rallying international support for his China-countering Indo-Pacific Strategy. That has included arch-rival Japan’s embrace of closer defense ties with the U.S. underwritten by a multibillion-dollar investment in Tokyo’s military.  The ruling Chinese Communist Party’s sense of vulnerability is heightened by China’s raging COVID outbreak and an economy pummeled by three years of lockdown linked to the country’s now-defunct zero-COVID policy. "There's recognition [in Beijing] that — wait a minute, the U.S. is not going anywhere, it is still a major geopolitical power — and so China has to reengage with the United States,” said Victor Shih, an expert in Chinese elite politics at the University of California, San Diego’s School of Global Policy and Strategy.

But old habits die hard. Vice Foreign Minister Xie Feng, the incoming Chinese ambassador to the U.S., accused the Biden administration of "besieging China through geopolitics such as the Indo-Pacific Strategy,” in a speech on Monday. And besides Zhao’s removal from the Foreign Ministry press briefing platform, Xi hasn’t fired or demoted any senior "wolf warrior” diplomats, points out Joshua Kurlantzick, a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations.  EU officials in Brussels are preparing for a visit by Wang, the former Chinese foreign minister who has been promoted into the 24-person Politburo, the Communist Party’s ruling body, to oversee foreign affairs.  But Wang faces an uphill struggle in convincing Europe of a shift in China’s diplomatic settings. The EU is angered by Xi’s close relationship with Moscow despite Russia’s aggression against Ukraine. In response, European leaders have started exploring the diversification of sources of key imports, including those from China.  In conversations with their European counterparts, Beijing officials and diplomats have adopted the tactic of highlighting recent transatlantic disputes to try to persuade the Europeans that the U.S. — even after the Donald Trump era — remains an untrustworthy ally.  "They like to repeat the U.S. ‘gains’ in the Russian war against Ukraine, as well as the IRA,” another European official said, referring to the Biden administration’s Inflation Reduction Act, which is seen by many Europeans as a protectionist policy unfavorable to EU businesses. China claims that the U.S. military-industrial complex stands to gain from the war, while Europe suffers more from the energy crisis than the U.S. 

Beijing is also reaching out to traditional allies in the U.S. business community to amplify its more benign messaging. Wang sat down in Beijing last month with John Thornton, former Goldman Sachs president and the current executive chair of Barrick Gold Corporation. That meeting signaled that "China is open to dialogue with the United States at all levels,” current Chinese Foreign Minister Qin Gang tweeted.  Similar outreach to the European business community may fall flat.  "China heavily subsidizes its industry and restricts access to its market for EU companies,” European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said during the World Economic Forum in Davos on Tuesday. "We need to focus on de-risking rather than decoupling. This means using all our tools to deal with unfair practices.”

But Beijing will hope that persisting with the warmer rhetoric will pay off even if the fundamentals don’t change.  "There are elements of Wall Street and certain constituencies in the U.S. government that are extremely receptive to talk about stability and predictability in the U.S.-China relationship after a very volatile two years," said Singleton from the Foundation for Defense of Democracies. "But it's an illusion."

 

On 1/21/2023 at 7:34 PM, Mlodj said:

F*** off China

 

They need to stop threatening Taiwan for starters. 

 

 

9 minutes ago, DaEagles4Life said:

 

 

There's a reason why so many western governments have chosen to implement policies that incentivize family formation.

 

 

10 hours ago, DaEagles4Life said:

 

 

that's inventory, not production.

south america produces the most copper. and I'm a bit skeptical of the copper number - though they still produce a lot of electronics. if taiwan is considered "china" for the above, maybe, but it's only to build electronics that are shipped worldwide.

the U.S. produces the most corn by far, and is a top 2 producer of soybean with most of the rest coming from south america. 

china does produce a lot of aluminium. 

Sweden welcome to the club.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11670419/Muslim-world-summons-envoys-Korans-destroyed-stunts-Sweden-Netherlands.html

Up yours China

Quote

The United States government is monitoring a suspected Chinese surveillance balloon that has been moving over northern states over the past several days.  Pentagon spokesperson Brig. Gen. Pat Ryder said during a briefing on Thursday afternoon that the U.S. government has detected a high altitude surveillance ballon over the continental United States.

"The United States government has detected and is tracking a high-altitude surveillance balloon that is over the continental United States right now. The U.S. government to include Norad, continues to track and monitor it closely. The balloon is currently traveling at an altitude well above commercial air traffic and does not present a military or physical threat to people on the ground. Instances of this kind of balloon activity have been observed previously over the past several years. Once the balloon was detected, the US government acted immediately to protect against the collection of sensitive information," Ryder said.

A senior defense official said that the U.S. government is "confident" that the surveillance balloon belongs to the People's Republic of China.

This is a developing story. Check back for updates. 

 

Ten years ago (minus 12 days) I wrote Ellie Kemper and asked her to meet me on Valentine's Day for an ice skating date at the RiverRink. I assumed it was ample notice, but I have yet to hear back. Should I write back to confirm or just show up? Gatwick to Philadelphia is very expensive.

15 hours ago, Arthur Jackson said:

Ten years ago (minus 12 days) I wrote Ellie Kemper and asked her to meet me on Valentine's Day for an ice skating date at the RiverRink. I assumed it was ample notice, but I have yet to hear back. Should I write back to confirm or just show up? Gatwick to Philadelphia is very expensive.

Nothing ventured, nothing gained.

High-altitude balloon was seen flying over Canada and northern USA. It is suspected to have come from China.