12 hours ago, Dave Moss said:

When was the last time you remember seeing him post?  For me it was Inauguration Day, although I’ve been banned for over 2 years.

yeah good times

On 5/8/2020 at 12:20 PM, Mlodj said:

I've posted stuff from Peter Zeihan before, because he's been pretty damn accurate with his analysis and predictions.  Also, as a geopolitical analyst he looks at things like demographics and geography that a lot of the more commonly cited analysts ignore.  A quick primer is this 34 minute Q&A from 2018.  

A better, more in depth, more recent one is this interview, but it's over an hour and twenty minutes long.  This is one of the best podcast interviews I have ever seen.  Pomp (had never heard of him before) asks intelligent questions and then shuts up and lets his guest (Zeihan) do the talking; what results is an amazing holistic view of the world.  It could be right.  It could be wrong.  But because he lets Zeihan talk you know what the assumptions are, so you can make a judgement on how trustworthy his predictions are:

And this is one of his standard presentations from February 2020; it lasts 45 minutes:

 

TL:DW.  The world we've come to know since the end of WW II is not the norm.  During this time the human race saw it's highest rise in the standard of living, largely due to the international order led by the U.S. during the Cold War.  As part of this order, the U.S. Navy guaranteed freedom of the seas (where 85% of goods are shipped) allowing every country in the world to import, manufacture, and export at will, leading to unparalleled prosperity.  This was accompanied by a population boom that has led to unheard of levels of consumption and cheap capital.  Both of these are about to end though.

Once the Soviet Union imploded we (the U.S.) should have come up with a new foreign policy model, but instead American voters kicked Bush 1 (who was uniquely qualified and positioned to set a new foreign policy direction) out of office and elected four presidents in a row that wanted nothing to do with foreign policy unless it jumped up and bit them in the a**.  The end result is our foreign policy has drifted on inertia, with no real direction, for the past 30 years and the U.S. has increasingly moved towards its traditional isolationism.  This has been accompanied by a baby bust in much of the world from the 70s and on which means that societies will be increasingly top heavy with retirees, ending the easy availability of consumption and capital.

Fortunately for the U.S. it is energy and food independent, does not rely on trade imports for a significant portion of its GDP, has the NAFTA agreements in place, is demographically in reasonable shape (thanks in large part to the millennials), and still has the world's most powerful navy.  It can afford to sit out the coming period of chaos which will be followed by a neo-imperialist world order, and if necessary take what it wants; it is the 800 pound gorilla.  Some of the countries that he thinks will do well in this environment are France, Japan, Turkey, and Argentina, while some of the countries that he thinks are particularly Fed are Germany and China because of their history of pissing off their neighbors and their disproportionate reliance on trade.

Quoting this to save it for later. 

6 hours ago, Dave Moss said:

You’re the expert.

In his mind he is

15 hours ago, Mike030270 said:

I think he's still banned because his offense was more serious

Yeah iirc it was doxxing.

What were you even banned for moss? I think i missed whatever happened

1 hour ago, ToastJenkins said:

What were you even banned for moss? I think i missed whatever happened

Abuse of a moderator and logging on to the EMB while suspended (twice).

17 hours ago, 20dawk4life said:

Yea. Some dude on the old EMB was going off in RnR the week it was closing about finally not being banned over something he said about a certain posters wife. He was denied entry to here. 

I don't think biglou was ever banned. Maybe @Moderator12 or @VaBeach_Eagle know? 

Biglou was never banned.  He just stopped posting

 

  

Just now, Dave Moss said:

Abuse of a moderator and logging on to the EMB while suspended (twice).

Bannings due to going out "blaze of glory" was one of the categories we decided deserved amnesty to register here.

39 minutes ago, Moderator12 said:

Biglou was never banned.  He just stopped posting

 

  

Bannings due to going out "blaze of glory" was one of the categories we decided deserved amnesty to register here.

Now you tell me