April 4, 20223 yr Just now, Dwide Schrude said: We didn’t give up a third, we gained a third Oops. Read it wrong. But we still might trade back if the talent pool is similar at 18 or 25 or so
April 4, 20223 yr 2 minutes ago, we_gotta_believe said: That would make more sense then. Not sure where I got confused. They swapped 19 for 18. I was confused the first time I read it, too. We haven’t even mentioned this part as adding value.
April 4, 20223 yr 4 minutes ago, we_gotta_believe said: Using the Rich Hill draft trade value chart, and with the general rule of thumb that future picks are roughly valued a round lower than current year picks, this is essentially a wash, if not a degradation of value if the Saints don't finish in the bottom 10 teams in the league. Seems like we could've held out for better value, no? Am I missing something here? Eagles give up: 1st rd, 16 ( 305pts ) 1st rd, 19 ( 278pts ) 6th rd (negligible) Total Value: 583pts Saints give up: 1st rd, 18 ( 287pts ) 3rd, 101 ( 35pts ) 7th rd (neglibible) 2023, 1st rd, valued as a current year 2nd rd, ~50 ( 115pts ) 2024, 2nd rd, valued as a current year 4th rd, ~114 ( 26pts ) Total Value: 463pts (up to 520pts if Saints finish poorly) https://www.patspulpit.com/2018/4/21/17256758/2018-nfl-draft-value-chart-rich-hill I think what you are missing is the faulty premise in the argument that a pick next year is of lower value. Ultimately it clearly is not. It just takes longer to get there. That being said, I think the Eagles would lose on this trade if NO has a really good year and the pick is 27th or so. Anywhere from 12 to 25 and it is a fair deal. If it’s top ten, then it is a huge win.
April 4, 20223 yr 1 minute ago, SB52 said: They swapped 19 for 18. I was confused the first time I read it, too. We haven’t even mentioned this part as adding value. Still doesn't come out to an improvement of value using any trade chart I've seen. This is essentially a huge bet on the Saints being awful in the hopes that we get a top-5 pick next year. The pundits like Banner calling this a massive haul have me scratching my head. It's fair to call it that after seeing how the Saints finish, but right now? It's a pretty weird thing to say unless I'm overlooking something else.
April 4, 20223 yr 7 minutes ago, we_gotta_believe said: That would make more sense then. Not sure where I got confused. EDIT: Looks like the OP has it wrong... EDIT2: No he had it right after all, we gave up two firsts. So yeah, wtf? https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2022/04/04/eagles-trade-16th-19th-picks-to-saints-for-no-18-2023-first-rounder-and-more/ No you are right. Too many numbers in my head.
April 4, 20223 yr Saints schedule is tough but I would assume pick between 10-15 as of today. Home: Bengals - L Ravens - L Raiders - L Vikings - ? Rams - L Seattle - W Falcons - Toss Up Panthers - Toss Up Bucs - Toss Up Away: Browns - L Steelers - ? Eagles - ? Cardinals - L 49ers - L Atlanta - Toss Up Panthers- Toss Up Bucs - Toss Up
April 4, 20223 yr 1 minute ago, FranklinFldEBUpper said: I think what you are missing is the faulty premise in the argument that a pick next year is of lower value. Ultimately it clearly is not. It just takes longer to get there. That being said, I think the Eagles would lose on this trade if NO has a really good year and the pick is 27th or so. Anywhere from 12 to 25 and it is a fair deal. If it’s top ten, then it is a huge win. This. And the its more likely to be top ten than it is being worse than 25.
April 4, 20223 yr 2 minutes ago, FranklinFldEBUpper said: I think what you are missing is the faulty premise in the argument that a pick next year is of lower value. Ultimately it clearly is not. It just takes longer to get there. That being said, I think the Eagles would lose on this trade if NO has a really good year and the pick is 27th or so. Anywhere from 12 to 25 and it is a fair deal. If it’s top ten, then it is a huge win. I believe the reason teams devalue later picks is because the front office guys may not last long enough to use them, whereas picks today could save their job. Howie signing that extension absolves him of that concern, so he can now fleece teams who are too enraptured over it
April 4, 20223 yr 8 minutes ago, SB52 said: This is the hidden value of this entire trade. Never in my life have I seen a 3rd round this good. Yeah. And trade up ammo as well, if a guy falls or they think they see a guy they really want.
April 4, 20223 yr 10 minutes ago, FranklinFldEBUpper said: I think what you are missing is the faulty premise in the argument that a pick next year is of lower value. Ultimately it clearly is not. It just takes longer to get there. That being said, I think the Eagles would lose on this trade if NO has a really good year and the pick is 27th or so. Anywhere from 12 to 25 and it is a fair deal. If it’s top ten, then it is a huge win. It almost always is of lower value, and virtually every draft day trade involving future picks is evidence of this. You rarely, if ever, see a trade where teams swap a later year pick for a current year pick of the same rd (e.g. Team A giving up a 2023 2nd rd pick in exchange for Team B giving up their 2022 2nd rd pick.) But we do see far more often, Team A giving up a 2023 2nd pick for a 2022 3rd pick pick. So we know based on historical trends, future picks are of lower value, but the question is exactly of how much lower value.
April 4, 20223 yr 3 minutes ago, philafan4o8 said: Saints schedule is tough but I would assume pick between 10-15 as of today. Home: Bengals - L Ravens - L Raiders - L Vikings - ? Rams - L Seattle - W Falcons - Toss Up Panthers - Toss Up Bucs - Toss Up Away: Browns - L Steelers - ? Eagles - ? Cardinals - L 49ers - L Atlanta - Toss Up Panthers- Toss Up Bucs - Toss Up Outside of their division they have a mostly brutal schedule. If Winston goes down...
April 4, 20223 yr I’d rather have the 1st this year than next. A 2nd and 3rd are nice but not worth it, especially now. Why not wait and see how the board pans out on draft day? Could have multiple prospects drop down the draft board.
April 4, 20223 yr The Saints are in the same division as the Bucs. The NFC West exists. This is a great trade.
April 4, 20223 yr 16 minutes ago, Boogyman said: Those 2 third and three 5th rounders could be big IMO If Howie could draft, yeah. We'll see.
April 4, 20223 yr I don't see that pick being lower than 15. And I feel I'm being generous with that estimate
April 4, 20223 yr Didn't think they'd be able to get a '23 first round pick, but Howie made it happen. Plus they got the '24 2nd rounder which could be packaged to move up next year for Stroud or Young. Kudo's to him.
April 4, 20223 yr 10 minutes ago, CaliEagle said: I like this trade. Nothing to hate about it unless Howie blows the picks.
April 4, 20223 yr 22 minutes ago, NOTW said: This is such a wild take. I'd love for these guys to elaborate and shine some light on how this is such a windfall for us.
April 4, 20223 yr 2 minutes ago, NOTW said: If Howie could draft, yeah. We'll see. Yeah...we know all that. No need to keep repeating it. I was speaking in terms of moving around the board. Howie needs to draft better. A lot better. Howie doesn't draft very well. Howie has made a lot of bad draft picks. Ok, we got that out of our system. Let's move forward.
April 4, 20223 yr 20 minutes ago, Diehardfan said: Eagles only gave up one first No - they gave up two firsts this year for one first this year and one next year plus more.
April 4, 20223 yr 6 minutes ago, Road to Victory said: I’d rather have the 1st this year than next. A 2nd and 3rd are nice but not worth it, especially now. Why not wait and see how the board pans out on draft day? Could have multiple prospects drop down the draft board. I think next year's first will have more value. This year's draft has depth, but not elite at the top. Next year has strong QB prospects coming out, so teams will be scrambling for picks.
April 4, 20223 yr 12 minutes ago, time2rock said: Let's hope NO sucks donkey bollz next year! They will draft a QB. We will then look stupid when that QB gets them into the playoffs.
April 4, 20223 yr 2 minutes ago, we_gotta_believe said: This is such a wild take. I'd love for these guys to elaborate and shine some light on how this is such a windfall for us. If the Saints (sans Sean Payton and Drew Brees) suck this year, it's a major steal - and they very well could suck.
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