2 minutes ago, NOTW said:

You forgot the Eagles other 1st and a 6th in your statement.

19 and 18 are a wash with us having a slight advantage so there is ''no other first.''

I didn't see the 6th but that is also a relative wash with them getting a slight advantage giving up a 7th.

So we turned a mid first round pick into a 1st, 2nd, and 3rd. This isn't rocket science in terms of how bad we fleeced them but some people like to overthink things and/or be negative for the sake of being negative.

This is why the trade was made.  How many of these teams will be shopping for a quarterback next off-season?  My bet is all of them. 

2 minutes ago, we_gotta_believe said:

It's not that hard, they assign value to every pick based on rd and position, and then you tally up the totals and see how they shake out. Jimmy Johnson popularized the original one but newer charts have modified it based on what the modern draft related trades tended to reflect.

And part 2 in your scenario is where we lose the bulk of the value.

 

If you were the Saints would you rather have your first next year in a deeper QB class or this year where it will probably end up being a DL? You also have to give up your 2nd in a few years and your 3rd this year. Also, looking at your team dynamic and that schedule there is a realistic chance you pick around 15 next year but could be easily top 10.

At the end of the day there aren't many people IMO in that 15-20 range who would be worth risking a top 10 pick next year. I'm sure the Saints aren't looking at it expecting to be that bad, but it sure could happen.

 

16 minutes ago, Diehardfan said:

With that schedule do you see them realistically picking in the 20s? They will probably at worst be around where they gave up the pick, so they'll have 2 first in a deeper QB draft, one could be higher than 15, and they get a 3rd and a 2nd. 

I never said anything about the 20s. I said if they don't finish in the bottom 10, then we lost value on this trade but even the most generous of valuations of future pick trades.

Wow, Howie obviously trying to set up for a 1st round QB pick next year. He has the ammo now to get it done.

2 minutes ago, we_gotta_believe said:

It's not that hard, they assign value to every pick based on rd and position, and then you tally up the totals and see how they shake out. Jimmy Johnson popularized the original one but newer charts have modified it based on what the modern draft related trades tended to reflect.

And part 2 in your scenario is where we lose the bulk of the value.

 

As someone said earlier, this assumes the future 1st value is lower than the current 1st.  We'll see what position the Saints picks lands them in, and what really matters is the players taken with the picks.  But everyone knew Howie wanted an extra 1st next year and he also added a future 2nd.  I don't know if he uses a draft value chart like this but he may just be looking at the number of picks and flexibility he can get.  Plus moving from the 6th to the 3rd jumping 3 rounds is good.  If he wants to draft a QB next year and this gives him ammo to move up and they secure a franchise changing QB then who cares about the draft value chart?  Or if they like Hurts and just use the picks to build the roster it's extra picks to add talent or ammo to trade up for someone they really like.  Howie isn't good at drafting so these picks aren't in great hands to begin with, but Howie's talked about wanting more picks and ammo.

6 minutes ago, Diehardfan said:

If you were the Saints would you rather have your first next year in a deeper QB class or this year where it will probably end up being a DL? You also have to give up your 2nd in a few years and your 3rd this year. Also, looking at your team dynamic and that schedule there is a realistic chance you pick around 15 next year but could be easily top 10.

At the end of the day there aren't many people IMO in that 15-20 range who would be worth risking a top 10 pick next year. I'm sure the Saints aren't looking at it expecting to be that bad, but it sure could happen.

 

Yeah, and that's fine to acknowledge. That something could happen where this trade then ends up working out in our favor is a reasonable take. But everyone saying we robbed the saints and got this massive haul in return aren't saying that. Again, I don't hate the trade, just didn't see how it was as lopsided as some claimed. Not trying to burst anyone's bubble or convince other fans we came outta this with the short end of the stick, just wasn't sure if I was missing something given a lot of the hot takes that were flying around.

3 minutes ago, opa-opa said:

Wow, Howie obviously trying to set up for a 1st round QB pick next year. He has the ammo now to get it done.

Wait until he trades back with one of the two he has this year for another first next year

 

2 minutes ago, NOTW said:

As someone said earlier, this assumes the future 1st value is lower than the current 1st.  We'll see what position the Saints picks lands them in, and what really matters is the players taken with the picks.  But everyone knew Howie wanted an extra 1st next year and he also added a future 2nd.  I don't know if he uses a draft value chart like this but he may just be looking at the number of picks and flexibility he can get.  Plus moving from the 6th to the 3rd jumping 3 rounds is good.  If he wants to draft a QB next year and this gives him ammo to move up and they secure a franchise changing QB then who cares about the draft value chart?  Or if they like Hurts and just use the picks to build the roster it's extra picks to add talent or ammo to trade up for someone they really like.  Howie isn't good at drafting so these picks aren't in great hands to begin with, but Howie's talked about wanting more picks and ammo.

Again, if you look at the history of draft trades, 99% of the time the future picks are valued less than current year picks. It's not really a stretch, it's pretty much how the draft trade market has operated in the NFL for decades.

4 minutes ago, we_gotta_believe said:

Yeah, and that's fine to acknowledge. That something could happen when this trade then works out in our favor is a reasonable take. But everyone saying we robbed the saints and got this massive haul in return aren't saying that. Again, I don't hate the trade, just didn't see how it was as lopsided as some claimed. Not trying to burst anyone's bubble or convince other fans we came outta this with the short end of the stick, just wasn't sure if I was missing something given a lot of the hot takes that were flying around.

I agree I don't think it's lopsided as some are making it out, even Joe Banner's tweet getting hyped up there   I think it was a good trade, especially given the goal of future picks as ammo.  Rappaport spelled out the value for both teams pretty simply.  For the Eagles it was about the future picks and not paying 3 contracts for 1st rounders, and for the Saints it was get talent now and worry about the future later.

If next year is a weak draft class and they miss out on another potential great player this year then it's not so good.  Howie seems to be looking forward to a QB for the factory in case Hurts isn't the guy.  

5 minutes ago, we_gotta_believe said:

Yeah, and that's fine to acknowledge. That something could happen when this trade then works out in our favor is a reasonable take. But everyone saying we robbed the saints and got this massive haul in return aren't saying that. Again, I don't hate the trade, just didn't see how it was as lopsided as some claimed. Not trying to burst anyone's bubble or convince other fans we came outta this with the short end of the stick, just wasn't sure if I was missing something given a lot of the hot takes that were flying around.

Yeah, I'm not sure I'd go that far either. I don't care what Banner says. For me it just comes down to I don't think they'll be that good, but who knows?

Just now, Diehardfan said:

Yeah, I'm not sure I'd go that far either. I don't care what Banner says. For me it just comes down to I don't think they'll be that good, but who knows?

Fair enough.

1 hour ago, GroundAttack said:

Not mad about it. Still have 2 firsts this year and next 

Who do we trade #18 to this year for their first and next year's first, so that we have 2 this year and 3 next year?

Remember what Howie did with extra picks last year to get Smith. 1 thing this guy can do is shuffle picks. Trading back 2 spots(keeping the top pick this year to get "your guy".. then trading back 2 spots to get a guy who would still be there at 16 or 18. Grabbing a 3rd this year then a 1st next ANDDD a 2nd the year after?. That's a steal. I didn't like it at 1st but this is a good trade. Knowing Howie he packages some picks and moves right back up to get a guy he wanted anyway. 

 

Reddick and Kyzir White made this trade digestible to me. Those 2 will make this defense better than expected.

7 minutes ago, we_gotta_believe said:

Again, if you look at the history of draft trades, 99% of the time the future picks are valued less than current year picks. It's not really a stretch, it's pretty much how the draft trade market has operated in the NFL for decades.

You are absolutely correct that the draft trade market has worked that way for decades.  I also think it's correct that those front offices that value picks that way are deluding themselves.  Especially when the earlier draft is thought to be QB deficient and the later draft is widely considered to be QB yummy.

Honestly it’s a smart move. Howie has given himself the ammo and protection to hedge his Hurts gamble. Now he definitely has the ammo to go end get a quarterback in 2023 if he needs to. 

You guys ready for Howie's excuse this year... too bad we didn't have a 3rd 1st round pick...

Ps. I think this is a great trade. 

17 minutes ago, we_gotta_believe said:

I never said anything about the 20s. I said if they don't finish in the bottom 10, then we lost value on this trade but even the most generous of valuations of future pick trades.

we got a 3rd this year (heart of the draft) a 1st next year and a 2nd in 2024 for pick 16 you can say we didn’t get what we should have all you want but those are 3 solid picks for 1 i’ll take it!!

Nevermind, I should probably listen to the two or three guys on this board who obviously know more than the rest of us as well as Joe Banner and Andrew Brandt.

1 hour ago, SB52 said:

The only reason I don’t believe the Saints can be "really bad” is because the Panthers and Falcons are in their division.

Other than that, I completely agree with your assessment.

I suspect Brady knew that and saw he could get back to the playoffs easily.  Bucs could sweep the NFC South, go 6-5 outside the division and at 12-5 be a 2 or 3 seed.  

 

1 minute ago, Cheesteakitis said:

we got a 3rd this year (heart of the draft) a 1st next year and a 2nd in 2024 for pick 16 you can say we didn’t get what we should have all you want but those are 3 solid picks for 1 i’ll take it!!

Don't bother, he can't seem to grasp the simple concept that a 1st, 2nd, and 3rd is much better than a 1st.

7 minutes ago, VaBeach_Eagle said:

Who do we trade #18 to this year for their first and next year's first, so that we have 2 this year and 3 next year?

lions at 32

I am not as certain as many of you seem to be that the Saints will not be good next year.  They went 9-8 this year with their starting QB essentially out for the entire season, outscoring opponents by 364-335.  And they have 2 first round draft picks to build with, in a draft thought to be pretty deep through those picks.

Could they suck?  Sure.  But 11-6 would not surprise me a bit either.