Former NFL GM Randy Mueller Explains Eagles-Saints Pre-Draft Deal

Former NFL Executive of the Year Randy Mueller broke down a trade that saw the teams exchange a total of eight draft picks

• JOHN MCMULLEN

 

The Eagles and New Orleans Saints upended the latest round of mock drafts in record time earlier this week when the two teams swung a deal involving significant draft capital that came together thanks to divergent philosophies.

While Philadelphia's Howie Roseman was eyeing the 2023 quarterback class, the Saints' Mickey Loomis evidently sees some opportunity in 2022.

On the surface, it seemed to make more sense from Roseman's side of the aisle as the Eagles essentially gave up the No. 16 pick in 2022 for the Saints' first-rounder in 2023 while also getting a late third-round pick this year (No. 101) overall and an extra second-round pick down the road in 2024 as the crux of the deal.

To make sense of things we called on former league executive of the year Randy Mueller for his take on what was behind the maneuvering.

"With this particular trade from both angles I think it's more obvious from Philadelphia's angle," Mueller, a former GM for the Saints admitted to SI.com's Eagles Today via JAKIB Media's Birds 365 show.

Mueller then pivoted a bit: "... I know from my history and really growing up with Mickey - we were together for 20 some years - my guess is there's another shoe that has to drop. I think making this move was probably the first of a couple (moves)."

Much like the Eagles did on their way to Carson Wentz in 2016, perhaps the Saints are gathering ammunition (picks 16 and 18) to move up again to target a quarterback like Kenny Pickett or Malik Willis.

Or Loomis might see the value in the draft dipping a bit after 20 or so and wants to get two players to compete in what figures to be a watered-down NFC this season.

Either way, Mueller's takeaway is that Loomis and the Saints have locked in their draft board early and are moving with a precise plan in mind.

"It tells me that (the Saints) have their board set for this year which is a little early which surprises," Mueller said. "They know where players are going to run out so to speak and maybe it's 20 people that they feel are quality, really good values. They have two picks in that top 20 now and we know the Saints need volume this year."

New Orleans' well-reported, salary-cap woes, which forced the team to allow star players like Terron Armstead and Marcus Williams to walk in free agency, are a big part of this.

"They're trying to move some things around cap-wise so the only really impact players they're going to be able to add because of the cap is through the draft," Mueller assessed, "and this might allow them to add two. If not, it gives them some versatility and maybe being able to move up another step."

That said, you don't trade to No. 16 with one player in mind, Mueller explained, because there are simply too many variables.

"You wouldn't make a deal like this now for a particular player because you don't know who's going to be there," he said.

As a former GM himself for the Saints and Dolphins and a high-level personnel executive with Seattle and the Chargers, Mueller found the deal intriguing.

"I think it was fascinating from my end to see the different philosophies," Mueller noted. "You mentioned Howie and the Eagles, who are much more analytically driven, much more trade draft-chart driven. In my opinion, Mickey won't be like that. He'll be a supply-and-demand guy as opposed to going off any charts or draft codes or anything like that.

"So a different philosophy. Maybe old school a little bit against new school, but I  think there's value for both these teams in making these deals. They're just building their teams in different ways."

https://www.si.com/nfl/eagles/news/former-nfl-gm-randy-mueller-explains-eagles-saints-pre-draft-deal

I think this deal just works for both teams. It obviously works for the Eagles because we had 3 first round picks and now we've managed to move one and pick up extra picks in future years. I think it also works for the Saints too as they have some kind of plan in place. 

11 minutes ago, UK_EaglesFan89 said:

I think this deal just works for both teams. It obviously works for the Eagles because we had 3 first round picks and now we've managed to move one and pick up extra picks in future years. I think it also works for the Saints too as they have some kind of plan in place. 

Agreed.  I don't view this as Howie having fleeced NO.  I think the same as you ... this helps us to execute whatever plan we have in the works (factor in the added benefit of not having to squeeze three 1st rd picks under the cap, and even more so when it comes time to execute the 5th year options on them) and it helps NO execute their plan.  

19 minutes ago, time2rock said:

Agreed.  I don't view this as Howie having fleeced NO.  I think the same as you ... this helps us to execute whatever plan we have in the works (factor in the added benefit of not having to squeeze three 1st rd picks under the cap, and even more so when it comes time to execute the 5th year options on them) and it helps NO execute their plan.  

The only way this ends up with the Eagles fleecing NO is if the pick next year ends up in the top 5, which is a real possibility.

The more likely scenario is that it will be between 12 and 20 next year, which is more of a wash than anything else.

4 minutes ago, pallidrone said:

The only way this ends up with the Eagles fleecing NO is if the pick next year ends up in the top 5, which is a real possibility.

The more likely scenario is that it will be between 12 and 20 next year, which is more of a wash than anything else.

Anything is possible but I still have a hard time seeing them be that bad that they earn a top 5 pick.  Perhaps bad enough to be in that 7-10 range though.  Fingers crossed.

And now we get to follow their record all season like we did with Miami and Indy this year. 

 

29 minutes ago, time2rock said:

Agreed.  I don't view this as Howie having fleeced NO.  I think the same as you ... this helps us to execute whatever plan we have in the works (factor in the added benefit of not having to squeeze three 1st rd picks under the cap, and even more so when it comes time to execute the 5th year options on them) and it helps NO execute their plan.  

I do think we got the better end of the deal but I'm not sure any team ever really gets truly fleeced. Ultimately if they gave up that value they were happy to do so. Now yes maybe Howie managed to get just a little bit more out of them but Ultimately the Saints did this as they have a plan I think. 

1 minute ago, time2rock said:

Anything is possible but I still have a hard time seeing them be that bad that they earn a top 5 pick.  Perhaps bad enough to be in that 7-10 range though.  Fingers crossed.

And now we get to follow their record all season like we did with Miami and Indy this year. 

 

I dont know. They lost their starting LT and Safety (who they replaced with a guy that is older and coming off an injury). They lost their HC and replaced him with Dennis Allen of all people, when with the Raiders went 4-12, 4-12, 0-4 before getting fired. Their starting QB is Jameis Winston, the human turnover machine and they probably will have a disgruntled Mike Thomas to deal with.

I would not be shocked if they end up one of the worst teams in the league next year.

26 minutes ago, pallidrone said:

The only way this ends up with the Eagles fleecing NO is if the pick next year ends up in the top 5, which is a real possibility.

The more likely scenario is that it will be between 12 and 20 next year, which is more of a wash than anything else.

If the pick is top 15, it's a win for the Eagles. 

3 minutes ago, Procus said:

If the pick is top 15, it's a win for the Eagles. 

if the eagles end up picking 15th and 32nd next year, i will be extremely happy. 

21 minutes ago, Alpha_TATEr said:

if the eagles end up picking 15th and 32nd next year, i will be extremely happy. 

You really think Famous Jamies can get the Saints to the Super Bowl ??

1 minute ago, downundermike said:

You really think Famous Jamies can get the Saints to the Super Bowl ??

 

ooohh, that's not correct.

 

 

i was just having a pipedream that the eagles had another parade.  

51 minutes ago, pallidrone said:

I dont know. They lost their starting LT and Safety (who they replaced with a guy that is older and coming off an injury). They lost their HC and replaced him with Dennis Allen of all people, when with the Raiders went 4-12, 4-12, 0-4 before getting fired. Their starting QB is Jameis Winston, the human turnover machine and they probably will have a disgruntled Mike Thomas to deal with.

I would not be shocked if they end up one of the worst teams in the league next year.

I sure hope your gut is right!  

4 hours ago, pallidrone said:

I dont know. They lost their starting LT and Safety (who they replaced with a guy that is older and coming off an injury). They lost their HC and replaced him with Dennis Allen of all people, when with the Raiders went 4-12, 4-12, 0-4 before getting fired. Their starting QB is Jameis Winston, the human turnover machine and they probably will have a disgruntled Mike Thomas to deal with.

I would not be shocked if they end up one of the worst teams in the league next year.

Don't forget that we have no idea what will be happening with Kamara after his assault caught on videotape.

Somehow, a Saints team sans Brees and Payton seems a lot less formidable.   That, and Dennis Allen had a dog ish record in his last head coaching stint with the Raiders.

It was a good trade for both sides.  Obviously, the Saints feel they can compete this year because otherwise you don't give up a future 1st.  They lost some players and HC, but they still have some good pieces.  M. Thomas missed all of last season and he'll be back.  The team must really respond to Dennis Allen as well...they shut out Brady and the Bucs last year in the game where Payton missed due to Covid and Allen filled in for him.  

That said, every year is different.  No Payton to formulate game plans/play calls and a very shaky QB situation.  They have the Bucs in their division so highly unlikely they'll win their division.  They have a pretty tough schedule in playing the NFC West and AFC North (which includes both teams in the Super Bowl) plus games against the Raiders, Vikings and....us!  The only "easy" games on their schedule as of right now are their division foes Atlanta and Carolina.

Saints will truly be a wild card team in terms of what record they'll end up with.  Should be fun to monitor!  Of course, last year was fun watching Miami start out 1-7 until they reeled off 7 wins in a row.  I think the chances are equal in that their 1st rounder will end up being inside the top 10 or 15th - 19th.

 

19 minutes ago, EaglesAddict said:

It was a good trade for both sides.  Obviously, the Saints feel they can compete this year because otherwise you don't give up a future 1st.  They lost some players and HC, but they still have some good pieces.  M. Thomas missed all of last season and he'll be back.  The team must really respond to Dennis Allen as well...they shut out Brady and the Bucs last year in the game where Payton missed due to Covid and Allen filled in for him.  

That said, every year is different.  No Payton to formulate game plans/play calls and a very shaky QB situation.  They have the Bucs in their division so highly unlikely they'll win their division.  They have a pretty tough schedule in playing the NFC West and AFC North (which includes both teams in the Super Bowl) plus games against the Raiders, Vikings and....us!  The only "easy" games on their schedule as of right now are their division foes Atlanta and Carolina.

Saints will truly be a wild card team in terms of what record they'll end up with.  Should be fun to monitor!  Of course, last year was fun watching Miami start out 1-7 until they reeled off 7 wins in a row.  I think the chances are equal in that their 1st rounder will end up being inside the top 10 or 15th - 19th.

 

Or they covet one of the QBs in this year's class and felt they needed to do what they can to put themselves in position to go get him.  

1 hour ago, time2rock said:

Or they covet one of the QBs in this year's class and felt they needed to do what they can to put themselves in position to go get him.  

This is what I don't understand - couldn't they just have given up the 18th picks, a first next year, and a second in 2024 to move up?

Is it easier to move up with 2 first-round picks?

35 minutes ago, pallidrone said:

This is what I don't understand - couldn't they just have given up the 18th picks, a first next year, and a second in 2024 to move up?

Is it easier to move up with 2 first-round picks?

Who knows what their plans are.  Maybe there are 2 separate non QB players they want and are putting themselves into position to grab both (potentially with small jumps like we did last year with our 3rd to grab Smith).  

It just seems more likely they’d be positioning themselves for a QB.  Maybe they’ve talked to teams and have already determined that they can come to an agreement if they have 2 x 2022 1sts to offer (but not interested in a future 1).  Who knows, so many possibilities.

Can’t wait for the draft … just 2 weeks and 2 days away!

13 minutes ago, time2rock said:

Who knows what their plans are.  Maybe there are 2 separate non QB players they want and are putting themselves into position to grab both (potentially with small jumps like we did last year with our 3rd to grab Smith).  

It just seems more likely they’d be positioning themselves for a QB.  Maybe they’ve talked to teams and have already determined that they can come to an agreement if they have 2 x 2022 1sts to offer (but not interested in a future 1).  Who knows, so many possibilities.

Can’t wait for the draft … just 2 weeks and 2 days away!

Same here.

This draft is going to be wild and all over the place. I am rooting for chaos and I hope for a team to run out of time on the clock.

8 minutes ago, pallidrone said:

Same here.

This draft is going to be wild and all over the place. I am rooting for chaos and I hope for a team to run out of time on the clock.

I’m hoping some of the premiere talent (Gardner, Walker, Stingley, etc) falls within striking range with both of our 1s because of that chaos expected earlier.  🙏🏻