June 23, 20223 yr 1 minute ago, JohnSnowsHair said: FWIW there is one three year period in recent history where the S&P had three years of negative returns - 2000-2002. While I see some bubbles bursting, I don't see an internet stock bubble that will cascade into a multi-year downer. And even if you'd bought in 2001 and lost some more on the way down you'd be up a couple years later and up bigly now. I see quite a few similarities with that period to be honest. Fast, cheap, and loose capital over an extended period combined with some nutty valuations of tech companies that don’t make money.
June 23, 20223 yr Author Just now, DrPhilly said: I see quite a few similarities with that period to be honest. Fast, cheap, and loose capital over an extended period combined with some nutty valuations of tech companies that don’t make money. I don't see it. Prime rate was 8% or so through 2001. The valuations are where the problem was. Lots of investment capital plowed into stupid ideas. Irrational exuberance. I see some of that, but seems like this is more of an overdue correction. We had a very long economic expansion, then Trump gave it a sugar rush. It was inevitable. But I don't see a bubble like what we saw in 2001.
June 23, 20223 yr 3 minutes ago, JohnSnowsHair said: I don't see it. Prime rate was 8% or so through 2001. The valuations are where the problem was. Lots of investment capital plowed into stupid ideas. Irrational exuberance. I see some of that, but seems like this is more of an overdue correction. We had a very long economic expansion, then Trump gave it a sugar rush. It was inevitable. But I don't see a bubble like what we saw in 2001. Ok. I see one. Feels very similar overall even if the params aren’t exactly the same Layoffs in tech already underway over here and at minimum the expansions are way down, e.g. Spotify who have slowed recruiting to 25% of what they had planned.
June 23, 20223 yr Author Just now, DrPhilly said: Ok. I see one. Where? Real estate maybe, but even there it's an issue of high demand and limited supply. There's been a lack of production in affordable housing, which is a problem but not one of a bubble bursting variety. Tesla is a bubble IMHO. I think there's probably a handful of companies like that who are overvalued. But a wide ranging bubble I'm not seeing.
June 23, 20223 yr 3 minutes ago, JohnSnowsHair said: Where? Real estate maybe, but even there it's an issue of high demand and limited supply. There's been a lack of production in affordable housing, which is a problem but not one of a bubble bursting variety. Tesla is a bubble IMHO. I think there's probably a handful of companies like that who are overvalued. But a wide ranging bubble I'm not seeing. This is basically what my dad was saying on the phone on Father’s Day too
June 23, 20223 yr 2 minutes ago, JohnSnowsHair said: Where? Real estate maybe, but even there it's an issue of high demand and limited supply. There's been a lack of production in affordable housing, which is a problem but not one of a bubble bursting variety. Tesla is a bubble IMHO. I think there's probably a handful of companies like that who are overvalued. But a wide ranging bubble I'm not seeing. See updated post above. Maybe more of a Euro thing at the moment but tech is hurting over here. Stocks way down everywhere as well in tech.
June 23, 20223 yr the SP500 has always recovered higher after a bear market. That doesn’t prove anything going forward obviously, but the track record is there. I’ve been an investor since age 18 with my first employer offered 401k March. Always 100% stocks (sp500, mid cap, small cap, and divided growth) so I’ve been on the roller coaster before. You have to have the stomach to look at bear markets as a time to buy when things are on sale. Steady month contributions are the key. What boggles my mind is coworkers who don’t contribute anything and leave the company match (free money) on the table.
June 23, 20223 yr 16 minutes ago, JohnSnowsHair said: FWIW there is one three year period in recent history where the S&P had three years of negative returns - 2000-2002. While I see some bubbles bursting, I don't see an internet stock bubble that will cascade into a multi-year downer. And even if you'd bought in 2001 and lost some more on the way down you'd be up a couple years later and up bigly now. Too many intangibles to accurately predict what will happen.
June 23, 20223 yr Author 5 minutes ago, Dave Moss said: This is basically what my dad was saying on the phone on Father’s Day too If we're talking right now I tend to agree. I think the market was and to an extent still is overvalued. But that's not the same thing as saying there's a 2000/2001 like situation where we're looking at 3 years of negative growth on the S&P. Enron, tech stocks that brought down an entire sector, 9/11, all this contributed to a pretty rough patch 2000-2002. Hopefully we don't have another 9/11, and I don't see a whole sector getting money shoveled at it with a "you can't lose" mentality.
June 23, 20223 yr 2 minutes ago, JohnSnowsHair said: If we're talking right now I tend to agree. I think the market was and to an extent still is overvalued. But that's not the same thing as saying there's a 2000/2001 like situation where we're looking at 3 years of negative growth on the S&P. Enron, tech stocks that brought down an entire sector, 9/11, all this contributed to a pretty rough patch 2000-2002. Hopefully we don't have another 9/11, and I don't see a whole sector getting money shoveled at it with a "you can't lose" mentality. Maybe not as bad, long, or deep as 2000 but I tech is in for a rough patch for a spell.
June 23, 20223 yr Author 7 minutes ago, Procus said: Too many intangibles to accurately predict what will happen. Uhh, yes. Ok.
June 23, 20223 yr I like going to the discount rack at the market to see what’s there. Sometimes you get some good things for a good price. The other day, I got a dozen donuts for like $2.
June 23, 20223 yr 1 hour ago, Ipiggles said: Thats a good point, but you have to be certain we have hit bottom, before the bounce back, which you can easily see in the review mirror, hard to see it when it is happening. Also, while it does start coming back up , but at 3 years it wont be the height, at 3 years the market will still have a few more years of growth before it dips/corrects again. Unfortunately, its impossible to pick the bottom. Most times when you feel comfortable jumping back in, its too late and you missed out on a lot of the good returns
June 23, 20223 yr 1 hour ago, RPeeteRules said: I like going to the discount rack at the market to see what’s there. Sometimes you get some good things for a good price. The other day, I got a dozen donuts for like $2. I got 6 rose plants a few weeks ago for 60 percent off. Completely gamed the rose plant market this year kiddos.
June 23, 20223 yr 14 minutes ago, barho said: Unfortunately, its impossible to pick the bottom. Most times when you feel comfortable jumping back in, its too late and you missed out on a lot of the good returns Agreed, but if you were prepared for the market drop, you also didn't take as big of a hit, as someone who was not prepared. I Prepared for the drop, I shevled 2/3rd of my portfolio into minimal risk investments, and am now waiting to jump back in with both feet. I minimized my risk/losses, and will maximize my gains on the way up.
June 23, 20223 yr 3 minutes ago, Ipiggles said: Agreed, but if you were prepared for the market drop, you also didn't take as big of a hit, as someone who was not prepared. I Prepared for the drop, I shevled 2/3rd of my portfolio into minimal risk investments, and am now waiting to jump back in with both feet. I minimized my risk/losses, and will maximize my gains on the way up. the same minimal risk investments that dropped 20% from Jan 2020 to May 2022?
June 23, 20223 yr 2 minutes ago, we_gotta_believe said: the same minimal risk investments that dropped 20% from Jan 2020 to May 2022? Dude is all over place lol. Pretty common phenomenon when you are just making things up to win arguements on a message board.
June 23, 20223 yr On 6/7/2022 at 11:19 AM, Ipiggles said: To be fair, Beg of 2020 we moved 2/3rd of my portfolio into less volatile, safer investments to ride out the waves we saw coming. Still down almost 20%, I would move it back, but I see more crashing coming, and when it comes I will be somewhat protected, and when timing is right move back into more aggressive investments. Timing is everything. How it started. 11 minutes ago, Ipiggles said: Agreed, but if you were prepared for the market drop, you also didn't take as big of a hit, as someone who was not prepared. I Prepared for the drop, I shevled 2/3rd of my portfolio into minimal risk investments, and am now waiting to jump back in with both feet. I minimized my risk/losses, and will maximize my gains on the way up. He prepared for the drop by losing 20% of his portfolio value by moving into "safer investments" while missing out on 15% gains, then says "timing is everything" while claiming he minimized his losses.
June 23, 20223 yr 3 hours ago, JohnSnowsHair said: I don't see it. Prime rate was 8% or so through 2001. The valuations are where the problem was. Lots of investment capital plowed into stupid ideas. Irrational exuberance. I see some of that, but seems like this is more of an overdue correction. We had a very long economic expansion, then Trump gave it a sugar rush. It was inevitable. But I don't see a bubble like what we saw in 2001. If you’re looking for a dramatic crash, keep an eye on Japan. Low probability/high impact situation. Also a look into our possible future.
June 23, 20223 yr Author Just now, TEW said: If you’re looking for a dramatic crash, keep an eye on Japan. Low probability/high impact situation. Also a look into our possible future. They've been in ZIRP mode for what, 20 years?
June 23, 20223 yr Just now, JohnSnowsHair said: They've been in ZIRP mode for what, 20 years? Right. But the dynamic was under a deflationary environment. Now the world is going into inflation, and they’re not tightening. Will it get out of control? Tough to say. Probably not, but if so, there is your catalyst for turmoil.
June 26, 20223 yr On 6/23/2022 at 1:09 PM, JohnSnowsHair said: Where? Real estate maybe, but even there it's an issue of high demand and limited supply. There's been a lack of production in affordable housing, which is a problem but not one of a bubble bursting variety. Tesla is a bubble IMHO. I think there's probably a handful of companies like that who are overvalued. But a wide ranging bubble I'm not seeing. Real estate, stock markat…ya know. The small stuff
June 26, 20223 yr Real estate is pretty wildly over-valued. Higher mortgage rates could be a bubble popper but the demand still exceeds the supply. My house was $490k in 2019 and if you trust Zillow, $918k a few months ago. I could still sell it for $850k-ish. I expect it to fall back to $750k, which means "correction" more than bubble bursting. The one thing that *could* trigger a bigger drop is when layoffs come and all the people underwater can no longer pay the mortgage. Crypto is a bubble. A tulip mania bubble. It's going to zero, but that could be weeks or years. I really don't know how much that affects markets for real investments like stocks and bonds. Stocks are (were) richly valued. Other than a few tech darlings, I don't see bubble valuations. Corrections are normal and just a buying opportunity. On average, stocks pull back 5% three times each year, 10% once or more each year, and 20% every three years. Markets have provided returns to those patient enough to stay invested over time without paying too much attention to market gyrations. Trying to outguess markets has been a loser’s game through history. Over time, markets always return to following the growth of earnings of the companies in them. Keeping things in perspective, sticking to your long-term plan, and staying the course is a better plan than reacting to news events.
June 26, 20223 yr 6 hours ago, TomatoPie said: Real estate is pretty wildly over-valued. Higher mortgage rates could be a bubble popper but the demand still exceeds the supply. My house was $490k in 2019 and if you trust Zillow, $918k a few months ago. I could still sell it for $850k-ish. I expect it to fall back to $750k, which means "correction" more than bubble bursting. The one thing that *could* trigger a bigger drop is when layoffs come and all the people underwater can no longer pay the mortgage. Crypto is a bubble. A tulip mania bubble. It's going to zero, but that could be weeks or years. I really don't know how much that affects markets for real investments like stocks and bonds. Stocks are (were) richly valued. Other than a few tech darlings, I don't see bubble valuations. Corrections are normal and just a buying opportunity. On average, stocks pull back 5% three times each year, 10% once or more each year, and 20% every three years. Markets have provided returns to those patient enough to stay invested over time without paying too much attention to market gyrations. Trying to outguess markets has been a loser’s game through history. Over time, markets always return to following the growth of earnings of the companies in them. Keeping things in perspective, sticking to your long-term plan, and staying the course is a better plan than reacting to news events. This in my opinion is the wild card and could replace the financial (bank) comparison to 2008... hopefully it's not worse.
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