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No. 1 overall pick in PPR: Taylor or McCaffrey??


eaglesfan0075
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I'm in a 10 team PPR re-draft league and found out I ended up with the #1 pick this year. 

While a lot of the consensus media experts are leaning towards Jonathan Taylor as the 1.01 pick regardless of format, there's definitely an argument to be made for Christian McCaffrey, who prior to these last two injury riddled seasons playing only a total of 10 games, had a historic 2019 season that made him a league winner for a lot of folks. 

On a personal note, I ironically had the No. 1 pick in 2019 in this league, however actually went in a direction that deviated from the media experts. Saquon Barkley was considered the consensus top prospect that year with McCaffrey and Alvin Kamara rounding out the top 3 rankings. I actually took Kamara #1 that year, which raised some eyebrows, however still made a playoff run. The Barkley owner missed the playoffs, and the McCaffrey owner was upset in the playoffs. An owner implementing zero-RB strategy actually ended up winning it all.

Injuries can happen to any RB, but my gut is telling me to stick with Jonathan Taylor, even if his total upside is lower than a healthy McCaffrey, given what should still be a very high floor with that O-line and only one true WR1 in Pittman, no elite TE. I do anticipate some TD regression this year, with the overall passing game expected to improve with Matt Ryan and the presence of Nyheim Hines, but I think Taylor will also get more receptions in the passing game which should soften the blow.

Big question is if passing on McCaffrey again will come back to haunt me? If it was just this past season shortened due to injury, I'd feel more comfortable pulling the trigger on CMC, but two in a row is hard to ignore.

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Taylor has better blocking, better supporting cast, on paper. And the injury-short seasons for CMC... That's why Taylor is consensus #1. But I have no hesitation picking CMC either. He's great when healthy.

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Thanks guys, I'm going to stick with my gut and pick Taylor at #1.

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56 minutes ago, eaglesfan0075 said:

Thanks guys, I'm going to stick with my gut and pick Taylor at #1.

Should have never been another option.

But if Taylor gets Hurt this year, I will find this thread.

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3 hours ago, downundermike said:

Should have never been another option.

But if Taylor gets Hurt this year, I will find this thread.

Fair enough 😅 but I think at that point it's more bad luck than taking a bad risk.

I'll bet on the young RB who sustained a heavy workload in both college and the pros, only missing one game due to COVID, versus someone a few years older, coming off two injury shortened seasons in a row.

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2 minutes ago, eaglesfan0075 said:

Fair enough 😅 but I think at that point it's more bad luck than taking a bad risk.

I'll bet on the young RB who sustained a heavy workload in both college and the pros, only missing one game due to COVID, versus someone a few years older, coming off two injury shortened seasons in a row.

Taylor is a flat out stud 

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I wouldn't take McCaffrey in the first round. I need my 1st round pick to play. He went 3rd in my league (Behind Taylor and Kupp). I wouldn't take him until the 2nd round. 

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On 8/29/2022 at 10:15 AM, Gannan said:

I wouldn't take McCaffrey in the first round. I need my 1st round pick to play. He went 3rd in my league (Behind Taylor and Kupp). I wouldn't take him until the 2nd round. 

I am curious why do you think he won’t play? Injury history? All signs are McCaffrey is healthy and ready to go.

Essentially you’re passing up on CMC…. Somebody else will take him first. There is no way he drops to 2nd round.

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3 minutes ago, toolg said:

I am curious why do you think he won’t play? Injury history? All signs are McCaffrey is healthy and ready to go.

Essentially you’re passing on CMC…. Somebody else will take him first. There is no way he drops to 2nd round.

Injury history. He's always hurt. I can't risk that on a 1st round pick. I need my first round pick to be consistently scoring 15-20 points a week. He ended up going 3rd. Taylor and Kupp went 1 and 2. I was at 6 and took Jefferson (who averaged 19 points a game last season). The big surprise was that everyone was out on Derrick Henry. I got him in the 2nd round. 

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4 minutes ago, Gannan said:

Injury history. 

Understandable. But I disagree. I have no reason to think McCaffrey will be hindered by past injury. And I think he’s due for better luck. He always produces when he’s in the lineup. I can’t think of 10 better players I’d draft to let him slide to the 2nd round…. Same for Henry too. Lucky pick!

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