Game Preview – PHI at WAS

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Game Preview – PHI at WAS

Posted: September 24th, 2022 | Author: Tommy Lawlor 

The Buffalo Bills are the best team in the NFL, but after beating the Vikings on Monday night, the Eagles feel like the talk of the NFL. Buffalo was supposed to be this good. The Eagles feel a bit more like a revelation. There was optimism to be sure, but right now they might be the best team in the NFC. That wasn’t expected.

Jalen Hurts is drawing universal praise. The offense leads the NFL in total yards. The defense just picked off Kirk Cousins three times and shut down Justin Jefferson. The whole world was watching and that makes the Eagles the Flavor of the Month.

This week the guys in green go down to D.C. to take on the Commanders. Who is their QB this year? Oh yeah, Carson Wentz. The Eagles are the better team and they should win this game, but boy it makes me nervous. You never know what to expect from Wentz. He could be bad. Or good. Or great. Heck, he’s often all three in the same game. That’s why this is his third team in three years.

Washington normally has a better defense than offense. Not this year. The offense is 6th in yards, 8th in scoring and 15th in DVOA. The defense is near the bottom of the league in all those categories. Wentz has had a real impact. Say what you want about him, but he is very talented.

The Commanders are a mystery team. They trailed Jacksonville 22-14 in the opener before scoring a pair of late TDs to win that game. They fell behind the Lions 22-0 last week before making it a game and losing 36-27. They come alive in the second half, but things aren’t very pretty before that.

Let’s talk about the matchups.

EAGLES ON OFFENSE

Washington has invested heavily in its DL, but DE Chase Young is still out. He’s the best player so being without him really hurts. Some of the backups are hurt so depth is a real issue. The Eagles would be smart to go with tempo to see if they can wear down the DL. If that group slows down, the back seven is very vulnerable.

While the defense has struggled, they do lead the NFL in QB hits. They can pressure the passer, usually relying on blitzes to help them with Young out. The Eagles OL should win most of the battles, but blitzes and stunts are always an X-factor. The Eagles OL must be smart, be aware and communicate well to handle the DL’s games.

Run defense has been a real issue. Washington is allowing 7.5 yards per carry. And that’s not some weird stat that needs context. They are 28th in the league in rushing yards allowed. Detroit had a lot of success running right up the middle (and that was with a banged up OL).

We don’t have a lot of tape to study, but I’ve not been impressed with the LBs at all. I think the Eagles would be wise to attack the middle of the field, with the run and the pass. Send Miles Sanders and Boston Scott up the middle on runs. Throw the ball to Dallas Goedert. Work the middle.

I might put AJ Brown in the slot and side Quez Watkins outside. If you can get Brown loose in the middle, there are big play opportunities. The Washington secondary has had a lot of blown coverages and missed assignments. They will get safety Kamren Curl back this week and he’ll help, but the issues go beyond one player or position. Big plays will be available. The OL has to give Hurts time and he’s got to get the ball to his guys.

Hurts will have to deal with more pressure than last week. They will blitz and take chances to make sure they get hits on him. Hurts handled a similar style from the Lions.

EAGLES ON DEFENSE

Washington has a creative offense and the players to make it work. You might have to go back to 2012 to find the last time that was true. OC Scott Turner is being very creative with how he uses his guys and the results are impressive.

Wentz gives them their most talented QB in a long time. He’s the same guy he’s always been. Wentz is incredibly streaky. He can be up big and fall apart. He can be down big and get red hot. Wentz is a playmaker, some for his team and some for the opponent. He will make some incredible throws and then take some maddening sacks. Same old Wentz.

But that’s an improvement from Taylor Heinicke, Dwayne Haskins, Kyle Allen, Colt McCoy, Case Keenum, etc. Wentz can make big time throws. He can make plays.

And he’s got the guys to get the ball to. Curtis Samuel is the key player. He’s the workhorse receiver (15-133-2). Samuel lines up all over, including the backfield. He’s got 5 carries this year so they feed him the ball in different ways. The Eagles must identify where Samuel is and who has him in coverage.

The playmakers are Terry McLaurin and Jahan Dotson. They have combined for 13 catches (less than Samuel by himself), but they get the ball down the field and make game-changing plays. Samuel is the guy who moves the chains.

Last week the Eagles focused on Jefferson and shut him down. There isn’t one player to just shut down this week. Samuel is the workhorse, but you don’t put Slay on him. You don’t double him. All three receivers require attention. It will be interesting to see if Jonathan Gannon goes back to more zone to deal with them and to keep eyes on Wentz. We know he can run.

Washington’s run game isn’t good overall. They have 173 yards after two games, just a bit more than the Eagles had on Monday night. They average 3.5 ypc. They have one rushing TD. This would be the week to go with a light box and focus on the pass. Make Washington prove they can run it on you.

The OL is beaten up on the inside. They’ll have a new starter at center. The Eagles must get pressure up the middle in this game. They need to win that battle cleanly. I’ve not been overly impressed with the OTs. I think Haason Reddick could have a chance to make some plays in this game.

We know Wentz will take chances. The Eagles must make him pay when he does. He throws the ball high over the middle. That leads to chances for INTs. You must catch those. He will hold the ball in the pocket. The rush must get there and get him down. If you don’t take advantage of his mistakes, he will move the ball.

ST

Neither team is rated highly on STs. Dax Milne is the best returner in the game, but the Eagles have been solid in coverage. The Eagles have had almost no success on returns. Detroit had a long return last week vs the Commanders. Maybe this will be Watkins time to shine.

The Eagles need to get their blocking improved, for both kicks and returns. They had a FG blocked on Monday and the Vikings got close on another FG and two punts. That can’t continue.

MISC

Nick Sirianni has to be careful this week. His team is riding high. Facing Wentz adds another layer of distraction. And teams don’t tend to do well when they play on MNF and then go on the road.

Washington is the more desperate team. That always makes an opponent dangerous.

I think the Eagles have too many advantages overall and should win, but I could see this being an ugly game. One thing we know is true. The only score that matters is the final score. We’ve seen Wentz lead 17-0 and lose 27-17. We’ve seen him trail 24-6 and almost take that to overtime (30-28 with a failed 2-pt conversion). Sunday could be a wild ride.

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