Grotz: Eagles would benefit by trading down in NFL Draft

Players signed by Eagles indicate a drop for them in draft

By BOB GROTZ | rgrotz@delcotimes.com | The Delaware County Daily Times

PUBLISHED: March 19, 2023 at 9:13 p.m. | UPDATED: March 20, 2023 at 11:22 a.m.

The Eagles’ moves in the first week of the new NFL year clearly indicate they don’t expect a franchise cornerback to be available when they’re on the board with the 10th pick in the NFL draft.

Otherwise, there is no way they would bring back both Darius Slay and James Bradberry, giving them the most experienced, if not the fleetest cornerback combo in the NFC. They also added once promising prospect Greedy Williams of LSU, who with his 25-year-old legs could blow by both of those guys in a 40-yard dash.

Additionally, the Eagles understand the top defensive tackles will be gone by No. 10 (very thin class, so to speak), so they signed Fletcher Cox to a one-year contract.

So, what do the Eagles do?

With those serious areas of need depleted, they should trade back in the draft and pick up value later in the first round at edge rusher, and of course with picks.

Edge rusher isn’t going to excite fans who point to Haason Reddick and the career season he had with 16 sacks in the regular season and 3.5 in the playoffs. None of those quarterback drops were in the playoffs. But the Eagles would make their draft by securing the services of end Nolan Smith (6-2, 238), a bigger, faster, and stronger version of Reddick, according to a draft insider.

Smith clocked 4.39 in the 40-yard dash at the combine and at Georgia was every bit as disruptive as Reddick was with the Eagles.

Trust me, some of the Eagles veterans can learn from Smith’s borderline brilliant bull rush, which is technically sound, aesthetically pleasing and NFL ready. He is all the way back from the torn pectoral muscle that cut short his last season with the Dawgs.

Also appealing in a trade back are Pitt defensive tackle Calijah Kancy (6-0, 280), the ACC defensive player of the year, defensive end/tackle Myles Murphy (6-5, 275) of Clemson and one of a deep class of corners, my preference being Joey Porter of Penn State. If the Eagles trade far back in the first round and want to roll with a nickel corner, Clark Phillips III (5-9, 184) of Utah is a certified playmaker.

Whoever comes off the board first for the Eagles isn’t going to be selected before the 11th pick even with all the quarterbacks coming off the board in the top 15.

Murphy is falling on draft boards partly because of his indifference to draft testing. He measured 6-foot-5 and weighed in a shade under 260 at the combine but wouldn’t run the 40-yard dash or the drills, citing a sore hamstring. Murphy then blew off the Clemson Pro Day. Supposedly he has a private workout scheduled in April. Count on the Eagles being there because Murphy has the strength and skills set to take over games.

Right now, Murphy is being scrutinized for his business decisions. Besides the draft workouts, he’s the first healthy Clemson player to bypass a bowl game in the Dabo Swinney era, according to reports.

If Eagles defensive line coach Tracy Rocker can get his hands on Murphy, the kid will be at the front of the line to run gassers at training camp.

But back to the Eagles. With guard Isaac Seumalo committing to the Pittsburgh Steelers, the Birds need an offensive tackle who also can play inside. With defensive back Chauncey Gardner-Johnson pointed toward Denver, they’re going to need depth there. There is plenty of help in both of those areas.

Though trading down doesn’t exactly fit the aggressive, all-in, go-for-it mentality of Eagles general manager Howie Roseman and head coach Nick Sirianni, it’s a pretty good play both in this and future drafts. Gone for the second, third and fourth years of the pending Jalen Hurts pact are free-agent spending frenzies. Additionally, some tough business decisions have to be made; i.e. how much longer will over-30 vets Slay and Cox be around?

The reality is that once Hurts gets a new contract, making the most of draft picks and the limited payroll they account for will become even more of a priority.

Right now the Eagles have the 10th and the 30th picks in the first round, selections in the second (No. 62) and third (94 overall) rounds and two seventh-rounders (219 and 248).

Even if the Eagles hit on their picks this spring, they’re still going to win games the way they did last season. The formula is etched in stone. Theywill go as far as Hurts, the offensive line and pass catchers A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith and Dallas Goedert take them in 2023.

Providing those components stay healthy enough to play, the Eagles have enough resources to get back to the Super Bowl.

https://www.delcotimes.com/2023/03/19/grotz-eagles-would-benefit-by-trading-down-in-nfl-draft/

Bingo - trade back into day 2 as many times as possible. Those 2 round 1 picks could be 3 addiitonal 2's and a couple of 3's so long as there are dance partners. 

I think Grotz is all wet on his draft evaluations and his assessment of the Eagles needs. 

I disagree DT's will be gone by 10. Carter will but Breese should be there into the mid-teens and Gervon Dexter will be a 2nd round pick. In that casde I trade 10 for a 1 and a 2 (example 10-1300 points for 14-1100 and 46-440 with New England or 10-1300 points to Pittsburg for 17-950 and  49-410: both close on the trade value chart). 

I also flip 30 for a 2 and a 3 leaving us with a mid 1st round pick (DT), 3 2nd round picks (S, LB, G) and 2 3rd round picks (S and LB again). 

This isn't the year for an edge rusher - we've lost 5 defensive started, 2 offensive starters, and 3 key backups and none of them are onthe edge - this should be a NEEDS drafts.  

 

 

Sorry but… what a load of nonsense this is.

They signed Cox because they need depth and experience at DT. And with Hargrave, Suh and Joseph also leaving they had to do something otherwise they’d be forced to be desperate in the draft.

 Aren’t we always told you don’t draft for need? You draft for the future and for BPA. I don’t think the team know what’s going to happen ahead of them in the draft. They don’t know how many QBs are going to go. They don’t know what other trades may happen. They knew they needed to give themselves versatility and that’s what Howie did.

 Right now they could still go DT or CB. They could trade up (unlikely) or trade down. They could do any number of things. The thing they don’t need to do? Reach.

17 hours ago, Rob331 said:

Bingo - trade back into day 2 as many times as possible. Those 2 round 1 picks could be 3 addiitonal 2's and a couple of 3's so long as there are dance partners. 

I think Grotz is all wet on his draft evaluations and his assessment of the Eagles needs. 

I disagree DT's will be gone by 10. Carter will but Breese should be there into the mid-teens and Gervon Dexter will be a 2nd round pick. In that casde I trade 10 for a 1 and a 2 (example 10-1300 points for 14-1100 and 46-440 with New England or 10-1300 points to Pittsburg for 17-950 and  49-410: both close on the trade value chart). 

I also flip 30 for a 2 and a 3 leaving us with a mid 1st round pick (DT), 3 2nd round picks (S, LB, G) and 2 3rd round picks (S and LB again). 

This isn't the year for an edge rusher - we've lost 5 defensive started, 2 offensive starters, and 3 key backups and none of them are onthe edge - this should be a NEEDS drafts.  

 

 

Yes the 2nd round offers the greatest value.  You get pro bowl players there at a fraction of the cost of 1st rounders.  We conceivably could have 5 2nd round picks if we traded down 3 times from 10 and once from 30, along with multiple picks in other rounds.

We're going to have 12 picks next year ... I don't really think we need to acquire a ton of picks this year as well.  Ideally, with our 1st pick we grab a blue chip talent that falls into our lap because several teams go QB ahead of us and then possibly look to trade down from 30 in order to acquire another 2nd and a couple of mid round picks to fill the gap between round 3 and 7 since we currently have no picks in round 4-6.  I still think the focus should be on grabbing the best players available and not maximizing the number of picks we make (even if it means sticking at 30 and then not making another pick after day 2 until round 7).  

1 hour ago, time2rock said:

We're going to have 12 picks next year ... I don't really think we need to acquire a ton of picks this year as well.  Ideally, with our 1st pick we grab a blue chip talent that falls into our lap because several teams go QB ahead of us and then possibly look to trade down from 30 in order to acquire another 2nd and a couple of mid round picks to fill the gap between round 3 and 7 since we currently have no picks in round 4-6.  I still think the focus should be on grabbing the best players available and not maximizing the number of picks we make (even if it means sticking at 30 and then not making another pick after day 2 until round 7).  

Exactly. I like this idea of getting top blue chip talent with that first pick. You're not going to get to 10 again for years unless disaster strikes. Since we'll have an abundance of picks next year I like the idea of trading up a bit and getting our guy that can likely contribute majorly immediately using some 2024 capital. Realistically how many guys do you think will draft to begin with? Like 7-8?  Last year they drafted 5. 2010 seems like the most in the last decade or so at 13. They tend to bring in a lot of Undrafted FAs when they don't draft a ton of guys.

7 hours ago, time2rock said:

We're going to have 12 picks next year

Sure but it looks like this - 1-1, 2-2's, 2-3's including a comp, a 4, 5-5's, a 6 and a 7. Not sure I;m excited about 7 third day picks. Even the extra 3 is a comp pick which is really a 4. 

I could see the type of trade down that took place in 2018 - with the Eagles trading the lower of their first round picks and accumulating more mid-round picks.

1 hour ago, Rob331 said:

Sure but it looks like this - 1-1, 2-2's, 2-3's including a comp, a 4, 5-5's, a 6 and a 7. Not sure I;m excited about 7 third day picks. Even the extra 3 is a comp pick which is really a 4. 

Highly doubt we'd make 12 picks - we've only made 12 or more picks twice since 1990 (1992 and 2010).  But the extra picks gives us a lot of maneuvering ability to target players we really want.  And obviously you need players whose role is merely to serve as backups/depth and STs ... those players largely come from those day 3 picks.  

Howie will be wheeling and dealing.  I think a trade down from 10 is almost guaranteed. With no 4th, 5th or 6th round picks, Howie' head might explode as we all know how he loves value.  

He may have alot of picks next year, but he'll be using them to move up and trade out to increase the number of 2025 picks.

With Hurts monster contract looming on the horizon, they need as much draft capital as they can get.  

If the team trades down, I would hope its a trade down from #30 to a team that wants to get back into the first round.   Those #10 overall picks are few and far between, and I'd hate to water down the team's chance to draft a difference maker.

9 hours ago, Procus said:

If the team trades down, I would hope its a trade down from #30 to a team that wants to get back into the first round.   Those #10 overall picks are few and far between, and I'd hate to water down the team's chance to draft a difference maker.

That’s true and I agree but if 3/4 QBs go in the top 10 we could trade down a little bit and still get a difference maker. 

13 hours ago, Procus said:

If the team trades down, I would hope its a trade down from #30 to a team that wants to get back into the first round.   Those #10 overall picks are few and far between, and I'd hate to water down the team's chance to draft a difference maker.

I don't think Howie gets hung up on a top 10 pick, especially when he has Hurts monster contract lurking in the very near future.  He has to fill holes with talented but cheaper players that can develop into good and productive starters.  

It's easier when they already have a talented roster.  Young guys have more time to develop without being thrust into being a starter right away.  Roseman has 6 picks but none in the 4th, 5th and 6th rounds.  To Howie, those are value picks.  And they serve a purpose for solid depth.  

A high draft pick is always exciting, but sometimes, overall team needs outweigh one player.  There are teams that suck and pick in the top 10 year after year but don't get better. And a lot of it is due to not filling the roster with good talent and depth.  

In a deeply talented draft, a team can parlay one player into 2-3 good players that can increase the play of a defensive or offensive unit.  

But it's a matter of philosophy......some teams will take that top 10 player, some teams will try to obtain more draft capital and increase the overall talent on the team.  

4 hours ago, birdman#12 said:

I don't think Howie gets hung up on a top 10 pick, especially when he has Hurts monster contract lurking in the very near future.  He has to fill holes with talented but cheaper players that can develop into good and productive starters.  

It's easier when they already have a talented roster.  Young guys have more time to develop without being thrust into being a starter right away.  Roseman has 6 picks but none in the 4th, 5th and 6th rounds.  To Howie, those are value picks.  And they serve a purpose for solid depth.  

A high draft pick is always exciting, but sometimes, overall team needs outweigh one player.  There are teams that suck and pick in the top 10 year after year but don't get better. And a lot of it is due to not filling the roster with good talent and depth.  

In a deeply talented draft, a team can parlay one player into 2-3 good players that can increase the play of a defensive or offensive unit.  

But it's a matter of philosophy......some teams will take that top 10 player, some teams will try to obtain more draft capital and increase the overall talent on the team.  

Trouble with that line of thought is that you increase your odds of whiffing on the higher of the two picks, in which case, you fill zero team needs.

I don’t trade the #10 pick any lower than say #15. You can get a very good player up there.

But oh yeah, there’s no way I wouldn’t trade out of the #30 pick. Trade that one and get a 3rd or two 4ths.

1 hour ago, LacesOut said:

I don’t trade the #10 pick any lower than say #15. You can get a very good player up there.

But oh yeah, there’s no way I wouldn’t trade out of the #30 pick. Trade that one and get a 3rd or two 4ths.

Would love to see a team like Atlanta want that 30th pick.  Get their 2nd (pick 44), one of their 4ths (they have 2 ... picks 110 and 113), their 5th (pick 159) and a 2024 3rd in return.  

1 hour ago, time2rock said:

Would love to see a team like Atlanta want that 30th pick.  Get their 2nd (pick 44), one of their 4ths (they have 2 ... picks 110 and 113), their 5th (pick 159) and a 2024 3rd in return.  

Wow!! That would be an incredible haul for the Eagles!! Wishing it happens. 

Hearing about the amazing CB depth in this years draft.  We could pick up a 2 and 4 or 5 and trade down to 19, 20, 21, 22 and still get a top CB and have picks for DE DT RG S OT and other positions

Was never impressed with the depth of Grotz' insight.  At the end of the day, the devil is in the details.  Trade down?  Let's see what's being offered before that happens.

1 hour ago, Procus said:

Was never impressed with the depth of Grotz' insight.  At the end of the day, the devil is in the details.  Trade down?  Let's see what's being offered before that happens.

And let’s see what is available when we’re on the clock.  Would be hard to pass on an impact player.  Would love to land a real difference maker with that pick and probably a much greater chance of doing so with a top 10 pick.  Can always trade down from 30 to acquire more picks.  

13 minutes ago, time2rock said:

And let’s see what is available when we’re on the clock.  Would be hard to pass on an impact player.  Would love to land a real difference maker with that pick and probably a much greater chance of doing so with a top 10 pick.  Can always trade down from 30 to acquire more picks.  

Worked out pretty well in 2018.  We still got Goeddert after trading out of the first round.

10 hours ago, Procus said:

Worked out pretty well in 2018.  We still got Goeddert after trading out of the first round.

No doubt but that was also pick 32 we traded ... not a top 10 pick.

16 minutes ago, time2rock said:

No doubt but that was also pick 32 we traded ... not a top 10 pick.

Correct.  But we also have a pick 30 this year - and I wouldn't be surprised if that was the pick the team used to trade down.

1 hour ago, Procus said:

Correct.  But we also have a pick 30 this year - and I wouldn't be surprised if that was the pick the team used to trade down.

Ahhh, my bad ... I misunderstood the previous reply (thought it was in reference to pick 10).  Completely agree then. 

Hopefully a team will be willing to overpay somewhat to move into bottom of 1st for the rights to that 5th year option.  If say a team picking somewhere in bottom 1/3rd of 2nd round wants that pick and is willing to cough up that pick plus their 3rd and a 2024 2nd ... 

I won't be surprised if we trade down from 10 to add picks this year and then trade #30 for a 1st rd pick next year.