3 week to go mock

[Rob331]

Here are some things to consider - 

• First - With a mega-deal coming for Jalen Hurts the Eagles need as many players as possible on team controlled first contracts. Last year they only had 5 picks and this year only 6. That's not nearly enough. Howie has to find more picks.
• Second - Howie is a notorious draft day trader. Reuben Frank's article details it. Howie averages 4 trades per draft and has only used his own 1st  3 times. 
• Third - We replaced most of our free agent losses and can field a team but didn't come near to matching the quality we lost 
  • I'm comfortable Dean is the equivalent or better than White and Mariota is solid at QB2 BUT
  • No way Morrow matches Edwards' performance
  • Lottery tickets just don't replace CGJ and Epps
  • We're betting on the come when condidering Penny's health vs Sanders performance
  • Street will never be compared to Hargrave
• Finally - there are more needs than picks - 
  • DT - we start Davis and Cox but is anyone comfortable with a Williams/Tuipolotu/Street rotational group
  • LB - I'm ok with Nakobi, but the Bears signed TJ Edwards for fairly big money while we signed the Bears LB at a bargain basement price. Does that tell you something?
  • S - we have a UDFA coming off of a decent year, a 1st round pick the Steelers gave up on, a 2nd round pick who was out of the league for 2 years, and some "just a guys".
  • OL - we lost two and signed none
  • RB - I want to be confident in a Perry, Sermon, Gainwell, Scott room, but I'm not
  • WR3/4- We need to replace either Quez at the 3 or Pascal at the 4. 
  • CB - After a healthy 2022 it's almost inevitable one of the corners will miss some itme this year. McPherson and Williams may be the answer, but an upgrade is in order. 
  • P - any questions here

The draft day trades - 

• Howie moves #10 to NE for 14, 76(3) and 184 (6)
• Pick 14 gets parlayed to Seattle for 20 ,83 (3) and 154 (5)
• Pick 30 goes to GB and bercomes 45 (2) and 78 (3)
• Bundle 83 and 94 to Buffalo for 59

The draft - 

• 1-20 RB Bijan Robinson, Texas. When you can add a top 5 talent you do it and the value can't be passed on
• 2-45 DT Keeanu Benton, Minnesota. Jalen Carter has gobbled up all of the DT oxygen, but Benton will be better than Tuipolotu and Street
• 2-59 LB Jack Campbell, Iowa. Campbell and Dean start 
• 2-62 S Jordan Battle, Alabama. Finally, a highly rated young talent. 
• 3-76 G/C Steve Avila, TCU. He'll battle Jurgens for the RG spot this year and inheirey it next year whern Jurgens moves to C
• 3-94 CB Riley Moss, Iowa. He's probably go higher but noone can remember the last white CB. At 6'1" 4.45 he's solid. 
• 5-154 T Jaxon Kirkland, Washington. Stoudt likes big guys and at 6'7 he fills the bill
• 6-184 WR Bryce Ford-Wheaton, West Virginia. At 6'3" and 4.38 he changes the script for WR3 or 4. 
• 7-219 Thomas Incoom, Central Michigan. He'll battle the Johnson's for a roster spot. 
• 7-248 P Brad Robbins, Michigan. A right foot punter with an unusual left foot spin. 

 

[Eaglerick55]

Hey Rob. Nice red, but a couple of things.

2 of your trades are woefully inadequate.

14, 76, 184--nope. Maybe 14, 76, 107, 210 is close

14 for 20, 83, 154--also nope. maybe 20, 83, 123, 154. We give up 14 and 2024 #6. even there.

Like the current RB room, but adding Bijon at 20 is intriguing. Love your rd2 guys, but worry Campbell does not make it to 59. Slim MLB pickings after him. IMO, too many CBs in room to add a 3rd rd guy. Good with back end of draft.

Just my humble thoughts.

ER

[MidMoFo]

I agree with your thoughts and concerns and like the draft you put together. I’m a big fan of adding Bijan even though it’s not popular or probable…

The only thing I would disagree with is you view on the LB position. Nakobe Dean is our replacement for TJ Edwards and I think he will be really good there in time… might not be right away. Morrow is replacing Kyzir White and has been a good coverage LB. We’re also getting Davion Taylor back and some youth with the 2 Johnson’s and Elliss.

Thanks for the read!

[Rob331]

14 hours ago, Eaglerick55 said:

2 of your trades are woefully inadequate.

14, 76, 184--nope. Maybe 14, 76, 107, 210 is close

14 for 20, 83, 154--also nope. maybe 20, 83, 123, 154. We give up 14 and 2024 #6. even there.

thanks for the feedback. I think we're probably looking at a different trade value chart. I use the one published by ourlads.com

Pick 10 = 1300.  14=1100, 76=210, 184=18. That's giving up 1300 for 1328 which is pretty even. 

Pick 14 = 1100.  20=850, 83=175, 154=30. That's giving up 1100 for 1055  - another close one

[91defense]

Good analysis, but I expect Brad Robbins to go higher. Maybe 230-235. I've watched over 100 hours of his game film.

[Rob331]

6 hours ago, 91defense said:

Good analysis, but I expect Brad Robbins to go higher. Maybe 230-235. I've watched over 100 hours of his game film.

If he’s gone then take Turk as plan B

[EaglesAddict]

On 4/7/2023 at 11:47 AM, Rob331 said:

thanks for the feedback. I think we're probably looking at a different trade value chart. I use the one published by ourlads.com

Pick 10 = 1300.  14=1100, 76=210, 184=18. That's giving up 1300 for 1328 which is pretty even. 

Pick 14 = 1100.  20=850, 83=175, 154=30. That's giving up 1100 for 1055  - another close one

I usually go by past trades to get a ballpark idea.  For example...your Eagles/Pats trade....last year the Saints traded from 16 to 11 and gave up a compensatory 3rd rounder (pick 98) and a 4th rounder (pick 120). To go from 14 to 10, the price should be pretty close to where you have it, except maybe change the 6th to a 5th...so, Pats give up a 3rd and 5th to move up to 10.  

The Eagles themselves gave up a 4th and two 5ths just to move up 2 slots from 15 to 13.

A really weird trade last year too was Detroit moving up to 12 all the way from 32.  The deal was Detroit gave up picks 32, 34 and 66 and got back 12 and 46.  Seems lopsided in Detroit's favor for moving that far up.

[Greenakers2]

On 4/6/2023 at 1:22 PM, Rob331 said:

Here are some things to consider - 

• First - With a mega-deal coming for Jalen Hurts the Eagles need as many players as possible on team controlled first contracts. Last year they only had 5 picks and this year only 6. That's not nearly enough. Howie has to find more picks. Agreed
• Second - Howie is a notorious draft day trader. Reuben Frank's article details it. Howie averages 4 trades per draft and has only used his own 1st  3 times. Agreed - but it takes two to Tango - and this year might not have a big enough dance floor.
•  Third - Replacing FA losses - Maybe - too early to tell but for Hargrave.                                                                                                                                                                                                                 
  • I'm comfortable Dean is the equivalent or better than White and Mariota is solid at QB2 BUT
  • No way Morrow matches Edwards' performance Agreed.
  • Lottery tickets just don't replace CGJ and Epps If healthy, those will.
  • We're betting on the come when considering Penny's health vs Sanders performance.  ( I'll take the bet - + Sermon is my 'hole card." )
  • Street will never be compared to Hargrave Agreed.
• .Finally - there are more needs than picks - 
  • True.................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................DT - we start Davis and Cox but is anyone comfortable with a Williams/Tuipolotu/Street rotational group  Not me.
  • LB - I'm ok with Nakobe, but the Bears signed TJ Edwards for fairly big money while we signed the Bears LB at a bargain basement price. Does that tell you something? Tells me I might have to wait a while to see how Desai wants to play.
  • S - we have a UDFA coming off of a decent year, a 1st round pick the Steelers gave up on, a 2nd round pick who was out of the league for 2 years, and some "just a guys".  For whatever reason, they don't seem to care much.
  • OL - we lost two and signed none Underrated need.
  • RB - I want to be confident in a Perry, Sermon, Gainwell, Scott room, but I'm not  Agree to disagree.
  • WR3/4- We need to replace either Quez at the 3 or Pascal at the 4. I'd argue  both.
  • CB - After a healthy 2022 it's almost inevitable one of the corners will miss some time this year. McPherson and Williams may be the answer, but an upgrade is in order. Planning for the future is in order.
  • P - any questions here only as to whether you think they'd draft one only currently holding but 2 late day picks to do so.

• The draft - 
• 1-20 RB Bijan Robinson, Texas. When you can add a top 5 talent you do it and the value can't be passed on  Gibbs makes more sense to me - and I don't see a way to do even that.
• 2-45 DT Keeanu Benton, WISCONSIN.  That's my guy.
• 2-59 LB Jack Campbell, Iowa. Campbell and Dean start Iowa fan.  Love the kid, but suspect Henley might be a better fit.  Even so, would eat my hat if they took one early.
• 2-62 S Jordan Battle, Alabama. Finally, a highly rated young talent.  (Anything's possible.)
• 3-76 G/C Steve Avila, TCU. Speculate they'll look more for a G/T
• 3-94 CB Riley Moss, Iowa. He's probably go higher but no one can remember the last white CB. At 6'1" 4.45 he's solid. He grows on you over time.  Like........
• 5-154 T Jaxon Kirkland, Washington. Stoudt likes big guys and at 6'7 he fills the bill Actually, he likes guys with the requisite skill sets and the intelligence to let him teach them and mold them to what the offense wants to do.  * Don't know enough about the player to determine the fit, but there are guys early and mid who do.......
•  

 

 

[91defense]

On 4/7/2023 at 4:48 PM, Rob331 said:

If he’s gone then take Turk as plan B

He died.

[Rob331]

17 hours ago, 91defense said:

He died.

C'mon man. This forum isn't for that kind of response. If you have something worthwhile to add, please share it. If you don't - just read. 

[91defense]

You're right. I'll try to hold back on my jokes, which is tough for me. Predicting which punter will draft in the 7th round was just too tempting. If you're right, though, I'd be seriously impressed and would leave you alone for 4-6 weeks. Like a high ankle sprain.

[Cheesteakitis]

On 4/10/2023 at 8:35 AM, EaglesAddict said:

I usually go by past trades to get a ballpark idea.  For example...your Eagles/Pats trade....last year the Saints traded from 16 to 11 and gave up a compensatory 3rd rounder (pick 98) and a 4th rounder (pick 120). To go from 14 to 10, the price should be pretty close to where you have it, except maybe change the 6th to a 5th...so, Pats give up a 3rd and 5th to move up to 10.  

The Eagles themselves gave up a 4th and two 5ths just to move up 2 slots from 15 to 13.

A really weird trade last year too was Detroit moving up to 12 all the way from 32.  The deal was Detroit gave up picks 32, 34 and 66 and got back 12 and 46.  Seems lopsided in Detroit's favor for moving that far up.

another thing that sways the value chart a little is where the draft is said to have to most talent… which this year i thought i heard mid 2nd to 3rd round.

[jsdarkstar]

Definitely like the strategy utilized here. Since Carter is likely going to be taken in the top 5, trading back to gather more picks makes a lot of sense and fills a lot of needs.