Most of us have come around to having more of an appreciation for what Howie has been able to accomplish with building the roster here.  But despite the accolades (named Executive of the Year for the 2nd time), his draft history leaves a bit to be desired (in particular with the 1st round picks).  Things can change quickly in the NFL, but it seems relatively safe to say we should not be picking in the top 10 again for the foreseeable future (absent a deal landing us a 1st from another team).  So I believe it makes it that much more important to hit on this pick and land an impact player on Thursday evening.  Considering Howie's recent draft history (last 10 years) with 1st rd picks:

• 2022: Jordan Davis
• 2021: DeVonta Smith
• 2020: Jalen Reagor
• 2019: Andre Dillard
• 2018: none
• 2017: Derek Barnett
• 2016: Carson Wentz
• 2015: Nelson Agholor
• 2014: Marcus Smith
• 2013: Lane Johnson

... what is your confidence level in hitting on that first pick on Thursday?  Of those 9 picks made, 2 are impact players (Johnson, Smith), a few are busts (Reagor, Smith), and a handful were just OK (but certainly not the level of production you expect from a 1st rd pick ... Agholor, Barnett, Dillard).  Jury is still out on Davis.  We would not have a Lombardi trophy in our case if it weren't for Wentz but still, overall it was a disappointing pick.  

 

Based on the last 2 drafts I'm more confident, especially having 2 chances in the first round. 

Prior to that, his drafts were often pretty bad especially on defense.  He would hyper focus on physical traits or try to draft the clone of an existing player.  He's improved a lot and he's had to adjust his philosophies over the years.  I also think with both Doug and Siri he's been more comfortable with the collaboration with the coaches.  Reid was in charge of the draft even though Howie was technically the GM, then he dealt with Chip.  He started out wanting to collaborate and get players Chip wanted for his scheme but then we saw what happened.  Once he got power back and then had a better relationship which his coaches I think he settled down more, plus had job security.

Howie's strengths:

• Picking in the top 12, less overthinking and more a "no brainer" pick
• Drafting linemen
• Aggressiveness to trade up or down and watch how the draft falls
• When not pressured for need (2018 draft post SB for example), sticking to the board and making smarter choices
• Choosing high character guys with strong work ethic and leaders on their teams

The last 2 drafts he's done better at:

• drafting from stronger "pro ready" schools, guys that won the championship and know how to win
• Not reaching for need or to have a guy start as a rookie. True BPA on the board for the positions they value. 

So that gives me hope that if he continues that philosophy at #10 he will take the true best player on their board regardless of whether that guy would start this year or not.  You want a guy that in 2-3 years is one of the key players on your roster.  You don't pick in the top 10 very often.

 

14,15,19 and 20 are fireable offenses. If Wentz didn't lead us to a SB before coming undone, Howie might not be here right now... 

Confidence on hitting at 10 is about 33 1/3%

I'm just going generic, since I think we won't be picking from our current spots. At least not all of them. I am going by position instead.

Any OL/DL draft pick, I give a confidence score of 7.5

Any WR/CB/S pick, I give a confidence score of 2

Any RB/TE pick, I give a confidence score of 6

Any LB pick, I give a confidence score of 4

Any trade that the Eagles make, I give a confidence score of 9.5

These are all out of 10.

I feel like for 2022 you also have to add AJ Brown to that list because he used a first to acquire him. That is also using a first to make a selection. I feel more confident if Howie wasn’t making to picks from college players. If there’s a place where Howie over thinks things it’s in the draft. Smith and Lane are easily his best first round picks. Jury is still out on what Davis will become, but his first season was a mixed bag at best. I would prefer Howie took a 2022 style of approach to this draft and use one of these picks to select a player and the other to trade for one. 

I'm confident we don't take Bijan at 10. Confident if Carter is there you take him. Confident if Carter is not there, we trade back gain extra draft capital and hope Bijan falls into our lap in the mid teens. I can see us trading back with Washington and they grab Levis in front of Tennessee. 

I feel better about Howie and the draft these days.  I think he has learned from his mistakes of the past.  He obviously does better the higher he picks in round 1.  I think this particular draft is going to be his most challenging one yet, though.  I don't think there will be a "no brainer" pick at 10...unless Carter is there.  He'd be a no-brainer in the talent dept but would still be a risk in the personality/off-field dept.

Assuming Carter isn't there...the players likely available at 10 are going to be jumbled up very close together as far as talent level.  Would def think trade-back time, but Howie could fear drafting another bust and therefore deplete our draft picks by trading up to land someone he considers a no brainer.

4 hours ago, Captain F said:

14,15,19 and 20 are fireable offenses. If Wentz didn't lead us to a SB before coming undone, Howie might not be here right now... 

Confidence on hitting at 10 is about 33 1/3%

Agholor and Dillard aren't fireable offenses. Agholor got off to a slow start here, but he rounded into being a good player and was a big part of our SB team. He's carved out a nice career for himself in the NFL. Dillard didn't work out here because Mailata ended up being an absolute stud, but he was still able to get a second contract at nearly $10 million per season. 

Yeah, Reagor and Smith, though. That's a big yikes.

Quote

It's Draft Week ... What is Your Confidence Level?

Confident, confident ... raise your hand if you're sure!

 

5 hours ago, Captain F said:

14,15,19 and 20 are fireable offenses. If Wentz didn't lead us to a SB before coming undone, Howie might not be here right now... 

Confidence on hitting at 10 is about 33 1/3%

Fireable?

I think the success of a player has multiple facets.  Any player in the first round has immense pressure to produce UNLESS the coaching staff and the organization are willing to take the time and develop them instead of just throwing them out there in the pro game.

I don't think Doug Pedersen's staff was very good at developing young players with the exception of Jeff Stoutland.  I think the thing that separates Sirianni and his staff is that they limit young players to limited duty, and coach them up with a good combination of film study, intense coaching and veteran presence.

I think with some young players, the pressure and jumping to the pro game can make or break them....especially if they go to a lousy staff and team.  The NFL is not a patient league, but teams that are patient, can utilize the draft better than others.

I think Howie and Sirianni are on the same page and I feel very confident that they will draft players who fit the schemes and are coachable.  

Plus Howie will be wheeling and dealing and he's seems to be getting better at it....it's going to be a fun draft.

Worried about picking a RB in the first

Also worried that Carter will be a bust

Objectively his drafting hasn't been good but people get emotional with him just like he used to get emotional with player contract extensions 

2 hours ago, Iggles25 said:

I was just going to post that.

12 hours ago, time2rock said:

Most of us have come around to having more of an appreciation for what Howie has been able to accomplish with building the roster here.  But despite the accolades (named Executive of the Year for the 2nd time), his draft history leaves a bit to be desired (in particular with the 1st round picks).  Things can change quickly in the NFL, but it seems relatively safe to say we should not be picking in the top 10 again for the foreseeable future (absent a deal landing us a 1st from another team).  So I believe it makes it that much more important to hit on this pick and land an impact player on Thursday evening.  Considering Howie's recent draft history (last 10 years) with 1st rd picks:

• 2022: Jordan Davis
• 2021: DeVonta Smith
• 2020: Jalen Reagor
• 2019: Andre Dillard
• 2018: none
• 2017: Derek Barnett
• 2016: Carson Wentz
• 2015: Nelson Agholor
• 2014: Marcus Smith
• 2013: Lane Johnson

... what is your confidence level in hitting on that first pick on Thursday?  Of those 9 picks made, 2 are impact players (Johnson, Smith), a few are busts (Reagor, Smith), and a handful were just OK (but certainly not the level of production you expect from a 1st rd pick ... Agholor, Barnett, Dillard).  Jury is still out on Davis.  We would not have a Lombardi trophy in our case if it weren't for Wentz but still, overall it was a disappointing pick.  

 

Marcus Smith....🙄

I want to see a haul.  Last year was a haul.  I don't care the form or manner of the haul.  Let there be game changing players drafted.  Let there be a groundbreaking trade or two for a difference maker.  Nobody knows what this week brings.  I expect the unexpected with this new iteration of Howie, and have more confidence in him as well than I did in years past.

Well if we draft OL I'll say 'In Stoutland We Trust' whoever it is. If we draft DL I'll probably be more subdued with certain guys but will always acknowledge you don't know

9 hours ago, pgcd3 said:

Well if we draft OL I'll say 'In Stoutland We Trust' whoever it is. If we draft DL I'll probably be more subdued with certain guys but will always acknowledge you don't know

Tracy Rocker has done a very good job with the defensive line......Graham, Sweat and Hargrave had a great year, Cox was effective, Davis and Williams showed flashes and Riddick was great.  I think if they do draft Carter, Rocker brings him along slowly but he ends up playing up to potential.

Given what I’ve read and listened to about this draft I think there’s a good chance that Howie drafts a good solid player with one of our first round picks. I don’t think he is going to draft a future stud. I don’t think he’s going to end up selecting a player that goes on to make multiple pro bowls but I think he’ll end up getting us a good solid long term guy.

10 hours ago, UK_EaglesFan89 said:

Given what I’ve read and listened to about this draft I think there’s a good chance that Howie drafts a good solid player with one of our first round picks. I don’t think he is going to draft a future stud. I don’t think he’s going to end up selecting a player that goes on to make multiple pro bowls but I think he’ll end up getting us a good solid long term guy.

Lately his second round picks have been better than his first round picks. Dickerson is a stud and Hurts has pushed himself into elite status. Smith is his best first round pick in five years. I hope he uses one of these picks to trade for a player. I don’t want to see two selections of Derek Barnett or Andre Dillard.

My first instinct, like most, would be that they’re drafting OL or DL with both 1st rounders. Now, I’m not so sure. Just get the pick right, whatever position it is. 

6 minutes ago, Road to Victory said:

My first instinct, like most, would be that they’re drafting OL or DL with both 1st rounders. Now, I’m not so sure. Just get the pick right, whatever position it is. 

No one remembers the position or need years later they only know if the player was good or not

History has shown Howie will hit on high draft picks and miss on one's in the later half of the first round.

16 hours ago, UK_EaglesFan89 said:

Given what I’ve read and listened to about this draft I think there’s a good chance that Howie drafts a good solid player with one of our first round picks. I don’t think he is going to draft a future stud. I don’t think he’s going to end up selecting a player that goes on to make multiple pro bowls but I think he’ll end up getting us a good solid long term guy.

I think they go defensive line because Cox and Graham are on their way out (Cox probably gone after this year, Graham maybe 2 more years in him).  Both those guys could end up taking less snaps to rotate and keep fresh.  I think they should draft both a DT and Edge in this draft.  They could potentially take both those positions in the 1st round.  But they also need to think about OT to replace Lane and give depth.  

Howie was asked about Jalen Carter and said that they rely on Dom Disandro for his due diligence research on the off the field issues and trust his assessment.  I think if they are ok with the off the field stuff and character and think they can work with him and he falls to 10 or maybe within reach they trade up for him and he's the guy.  Talent wise he makes the most sense.  The DT position would be cemented.  Then add a DE/Edge at #30 and the D line would be great.  

They do need LB and S but they don't draft those in the 1st round, but if they can add players there on top of that they will hopefully be in good shape.  If they don't take Carter then there are other DTs in this draft anyway.

I was thinking of some weird scenarios that could play out tomorrow s here's one for ya:

In it's final mock, The Athletic has Kentucky QB Will Levis falling to Tennessee at #11 which got me thinking - what happens if one of the big 4 QBs does drop and is still there when the Eagles are on the clock.  Obviously they don't need a quarterback, but would The Quarterback Factory be able to resist pouncing on a guy like Levis or Richardson? 

I think the move is to trade UP and get Davis or Will Anderson but if they stay at 10 and there's an elite QB still on the board Howie might cave to temptation....