Was Saquon Barkley signing a brilliant move or unnecessary risk?

[time2rock]

Was Saquon Barkley signing a brilliant move or unnecessary risk?

Howie Roseman broke from tradition in a huge way with a move that could pay enormous dividends or could backfire.

By Reuben Frank • Published March 12, 2024

 

The Saquon Barkley move is so out of character for Howie Roseman, and there are some very good reasons he had never signed a big-money free agent running back his first 13 seasons as Eagles GM.

The Eagles have always had success with cheap-o backs. In 2017, Corey Clement was an undrafted rookie making minimum wage, Jay Ajayi was on the final year of an almost minimum wage 5^th-round rookie contract and LeGarrette Blount was barely making a million bucks, and those three combined for 255 yards in the Super Bowl.

In 2018, the Eagles’ leading rusher was another undrafted rookie, Josh Adams. Again, minimum wage. The other backs – Clement, Wendell Smallwood, Ajayi – weren’t making much more.

Miles Sanders arrived in 2019, and he was a 2^nd-round pick, but his contract was a modest one: $5.35 million over four years. When that was up, he was gone. D’Andre Swift just signed a big contract with the Bears - $24 million over three years - but here? He was a Pro Bowler making under $2 million in 2023.

The Eagles went to two Super Bowls with budget running backs. They won a lot of games with budget running backs. They always had a top offense with budget running backs. Sanders and Swift both made Pro Bowls with cap figures around $1.7 million.

Roseman has his philosophy and it’s always worked.

And then we have $37.75 million for Saquon Barkley and everything we’ve known about Roseman goes out the window.

Barkley is an absolutely intriguing signing. When he’s at his best, he’s as good as any back in the league. 

As a rookie in 2018, he joined LaDainian Tomlinson as only the second running back in NFL history with 1,300 rushing yards, a 5.0 average and 90 receptions. In 2022, he became only the ninth player in history with two seasons with 1,300 rushing yards, 10 TDs and 50 catches.

But here’s the thing. Those have been Barkley’s only elite seasons. 

In 2019, he dropped from second in the league in rushing to 15^th. In 2020, he missed most of the season with a torn ACL. In 2021, he averaged a pedestrian 3.7 yards per carry, which ranked 45^th of 50 running backs with at least 100 carries. And this past year, he averaged less than 4.0 yards per carry in nine of 14 games, including his last four.

Compare D’Andre Swift’s 2023 season with Barkley’s:

Swift: 1,049 rushing yards, 5 TDs, 4.6 average, 1,263 scrimmage yards
Barkley: 962 rushing yards, 6 TDs, 3.9 average, 1,242 scrimmage yards

The Bears signed Swift for $8 million per year and the Eagles signed Barkley for $12.6 million per year.

So here’s the conundrum: When Barkley is at his best, he’s clearly a more explosive, more productive player than Swift. But not only is Swift two years younger, he’s got about half as many career touches as Barkley (1,511 to 802), he’s never had a serious injury and he’s also never had a down year, although obviously last year was his first as a full-time starting back.

Over the last four years – since Swift came into the league – 75 backs have had at least 500 carries. Swift’s 4.6 average during that span is 7^th-best. Barkley’s 4.0 average during the same span is 21^st-best.  

Now, there’s definitely something to the notion of Barkley escaping a losing organization – the Giants had one winning season in Barkley’s six years in East Rutherford – and getting behind a far superior offensive line, even without Jason Kelce, and getting far away from that unforgiving MetLife Stadium turf.

Barkley’s upside is astronomical. He can be as dynamic as any running back in the NFL. When he’s right, he can take over a game.

Roseman is gambling that the Eagles will get that version of Barkley, and they very well could. 

The notion of a talent like Barkley playing in an offense with Jalen Hurts, A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith and Dallas Goedert and behind an offensive line that should still be very good is tantalizing. Kellen Moore will find creative ways to use Barkley both as a runner and receiver. He’ll be surrounded by more talent than he ever was in North Jersey. 

Barkley has never been a part of what he’ll be a part of in Philly. The Giants were 34-64-1 with one playoff appearance in Barkley's six years. The Eagles were 56-42 over the same six years with five playoff appearances.

Just that sort of change of scenery can be huge for a guy like Barkley.

The possibilities are dazzling.

But the reason Roseman has never signed big-money running backs is because you just can’t count on them having big seasons year after year. 

Todd Gurley was an all-pro in 2018, washed up by 2020. Jonathan Taylor led the NFL in rushing in 2021 and has been average since. Ezekiel Elliott hasn’t had an elite season since he was 22. Chris Carson had his big 1,200-yard season at 25 and hasn’t done anything since. Ajayi was 23 when he ran for nearly 1,300 yards for the Dolphins. He rushed for exactly 214 yards after turning 25.

And so on.

Will Barkley buck that trend and deliver the Eagles big-time production in his mid-to-late 20s? It’s certainly possible. But it’s hardly a lock.

With running backs, you just never know. Ever.

Roseman broke from tradition in a huge way with a move that could pay enormous dividends or could backfire. The guy who rarely takes risks or goes against proven trends has just done both just a few hours into free agency.

And the stakes are enormous.

https://www.nbcsportsphiladelphia.com/nfl/philadelphia-eagles/was-eagles-saquon-barkley-signing-brilliant-move-or-unnecessary-risk/570736/

[UK_EaglesFan89]

There’s no doubt it is a gamble. It’s not a small contract for a player who has missed time and who hasn’t been the player everyone thought when he was drafted. But the cap number is not big (and that’s really the important number) and there’s just so upside here.

He’s an explosive weapon. He can play 3 downs because he can run, catch and block. He’s got big play ability. And he was playing for a losing organisation with a bad OL and not very good QB play. Oh not to mention a lack of offensive weapons. So the upside is very very real here.

[PoconoDon]

Good signing. The Eagles needed a 3 down back and when healthy, he's one of the best behind McCaffrey. I'd still like for Howie to draft a RB as a backup. 

[Eagleblood52]

Considering what swift got from the bears, i think we coulda kept him instead…i liked swift…

also considering how coaches seem to neglect the running game when crap goes wrong…

i hope he comes in a just lights it up…but we’ll see…

[UK_EaglesFan89]

11 hours ago, Eagleblood52 said:

Considering what swift got from the bears, i think we coulda kept him instead…i liked swift…

also considering how coaches seem to neglect the running game when crap goes wrong…

i hope he comes in a just lights it up…but we’ll see…

Barkley is an upgrade though… And a lot depends on what Swifts cap hit is with the Bears as that is the key number.

[time2rock]

12 hours ago, Eagleblood52 said:

Considering what swift got from the bears, i think we coulda kept him instead…i liked swift…

also considering how coaches seem to neglect the running game when crap goes wrong…

i hope he comes in a just lights it up…but we’ll see…

You would think with what they are paying Barkley they aren't going to ignore the running game (although he will be a weapon in the passing game as well).  We ran the ball plenty under Steichen, not enough under Johnson (who was one and done) ... hopefully we return to more of a balanced offense under Moore (and more of the designed runs are through Barkley and not Hurts).  

[EaglesAddict]

Barkley is definitely a risk/reward player.  Injury history + mileage.  I can see him being super charged for 2024, assuming he can stay healthy, because he'll be super motivated.  After this season, we'll see.

[time2rock]

2 hours ago, EaglesAddict said:

Barkley is definitely a risk/reward player.  Injury history + mileage.  I can see him being super charged for 2024, assuming he can stay healthy, because he'll be super motivated.  After this season, we'll see.

Yep.  I think Tommy Lawlor perfectly summed up the signing of Barkley (especially the latter part that is bolded):

 

"There is risk in signing Barkley. He’s a 27-year old RB with 1200 carries on his resume and the Eagles are paying him $12M a year. You can argue that’s not a great use of resources. But Barkley has special potential. Every time the Eagles faced the Giants, he made me nervous. One blown assignment or missed tackle and he was off to the races.

If you look at his numbers with the Giants, they are not special. I think a lot of that is circumstantial. They had an awful OL for a lot of his career. They had bad QB play. Defenses focused on Barkley.

While signing Barkley is a risk, bringing him to Philly changes things in a big way. He’ll play with a top QB. He’ll run behind a really good OL. He’ll be surrounded by weapons and playmakers. Barkely doesn’t have to be the hero anymore. He can be a playmaker, part of the attack. And Barkley might thrive in that role.

That speed is something the Eagles haven’t had in a while. Miles Sanders could break off big runs, but he didn’t have Barkley’s power, elusiveness or pass-catching ability. Watching Jordan Mailata and Landon Dickerson cave in their side of the defense and then seeing Barkley explode up the field will be a thing of beauty.

I like the risk of adding Barkley. If he pans out, the Eagles offense will be absolutely loaded. If he doesn’t work out as expected, he will still be good. He just will be overpaid. With the extra cap room teams got this year, why not take a chance with some of that money?"

 

[LacesOut]

Love the signing. He stays healthy, he's got 3 more productive years in him.

Do you bring back Boston Scott on a 1 year deal? Or draft an RB in the late rounds? I bring back Scott.