All these things have to be taken with a pinch of salt, but for what it’s worth his rating was 95.6 against the Bengals. (I’m not sure that a QB has posted a higher rating good year).

His year rating is 69.3 which puts him at 6th overall which feels about right. 

3 hours ago, ManchesterEagle said:

All these things have to be taken with a pinch of salt, but for what it’s worth his rating was 95.6 against the Bengals. (I’m not sure that a QB has posted a higher rating good year).

His year rating is 69.3 which puts him at 6th overall which feels about right. 

The interesting stat would be his QBR in games that AJ has played vs the games without him. And that’s not to discredit Hurts at all just to show the impact AJ has.

Jalen took a step back as a passer at the beginning of this year, but he’s definitely trending upward now with arguably his best game since the SB. If he keeps on this pace then the sky is the limit for the Eagles.

35 minutes ago, UK_EaglesFan89 said:

The interesting stat would be his QBR in games that AJ has played vs the games without him. And that’s not to discredit Hurts at all just to show the impact AJ has.

You could argue that with a lot of NFL quarterbacks. How good would Burrow be it Chase and Higgins are out of the game? 

47 minutes ago, UK_EaglesFan89 said:

The interesting stat would be his QBR in games that AJ has played vs the games without him. And that’s not to discredit Hurts at all just to show the impact AJ has.

Are offensive is overtly top-heavy on playmakers and seriously lacking in depth. Brown, Smith, Barkley are the key cogs that makes this go (aloing with Jalen). The step down from those three to their backups is massive - I mean we dont even have a servicible #3 WR, let alone when we ask those guys to step up and be a #1 or #2, it really stalls out the offence. 

45 minutes ago, EazyEaglez said:

Jalen took a step back as a passer at the beginning of this year, but he’s definitely trending upward now with arguably his best game since the SB. If he keeps on this pace then the sky is the limit for the Eagles.

His games aginst Commanders last year were very good but yeah I agree, we havent seen these sort of games as much lately. Scoring on 7 of 8 drives, 4 TDs. The O was operating as a well-oiled efficient machine and Hurts played a great game driving it.

19 minutes ago, kiwieagle said:

Are offensive is overtly top-heavy on playmakers and seriously lacking in depth. Brown, Smith, Barkley are the key cogs that makes this go (aloing with Jalen). The step down from those three to their backups is massive - I mean we dont even have a servicible #3 WR, let alone when we ask those guys to step up and be a #1 or #2, it really stalls out the offence. 

I disagree with the idea that we don't have a serviceable #3. As I alluded to in my earlier post, I don't expect any player to be perfect. There will be things about a player's game that the player excels at and things where he may be lacking. To date, one of my criticisms of Hurts is that he is slow to trust the unfamiliar. He's pretty much on the same page with Brown, Smith and Goedert, but it has taken him a long time to really get comfortable throwing to Calcaterra who is a very capable pass-catching TE. Based on the first two games this season, I feel Jalen was demonstrating trust in Covey as the #3 WR. I know we invested a significant pick in Dotson, but I really feel like he's not being targeted much due to a lack of developed chemistry between him and Jalen and not because he isn't serviceable.

I believe over time it (chemistry) will develop. Every practice will be important along the way. Right now, there are other new things on Jalen's plate offensively. He's calling the protections for now (Kelce used to take care of that) and there are things like motion that is being used much more and those depend more on timing than plays without motion. He's being asked to take more snaps than usual under center which also takes him out of his comfort zone. I feel like the changes to the offense Moore brings in are becoming more familiar to Jalen and getting Dotson involved more will eventually happen. 

I've been busy with a few other things, so I haven't really sat down and rewatched Dotson through the first several games to evaluate what he has done on the field so far and I'd be interested to watch a video if somebody else has already done the work. But I just can't flat out state we don't have a serviceable WR3 when our QB has never really targeted any WR3 all that much in any season. We've had Quez, OZ, Jones, and now Dotson and all of them have had a productive season in the NFL at some point, but as WR3 on this team, were rarely targeted. Even Greg Ward was serviceable, so that bar isn't really high honestly. Nobody will produce much, though, if you don't throw to him. 

6 hours ago, ManchesterEagle said:

All these things have to be taken with a pinch of salt, but for what it’s worth his rating was 95.6 against the Bengals. (I’m not sure that a QB has posted a higher rating good year).

His year rating is 69.3 which puts him at 6th overall which feels about right. 

His current QBR on the season is slightly higher than his 2022 season where he was MVP runner up and that was his personal best (68.3). His passer rating is currently 98.6 which is just below the 101.5 he had in 2022. His completion percentage is currently 69.1% on the season and his best finish (2022) was 66.5%. There's reason for optimism.

4 hours ago, kiwieagle said:

His games aginst Commanders last year were very good but yeah I agree, we havent seen these sort of games as much lately. Scoring on 7 of 8 drives, 4 TDs. The O was operating as a well-oiled efficient machine and Hurts played a great game driving it.

He keeps this up, he will creep his name right back into that MVP talk. It’s not how you start, but how you finish. 

9 hours ago, EazyEaglez said:

You could argue that with a lot of NFL quarterbacks. How good would Burrow be it Chase and Higgins are out of the game? 

Yeah I’m not trying to discredit Hurts there bud I was just asking the question to see the differential. With AJ Hurts puts up elite numbers and without him he struggles (as most QBs would). At the end of the day Hurts still has to make the read and throw to AJ and a lot of those throws are not the easiest to complete.

21 hours ago, UK_EaglesFan89 said:

Yeah I’m not trying to discredit Hurts there bud I was just asking the question to see the differential. With AJ Hurts puts up elite numbers and without him he struggles (as most QBs would). At the end of the day Hurts still has to make the read and throw to AJ and a lot of those throws are not the easiest to complete.

Just stating many quarterbacks would love to have an elite receiver and many will struggle without them.

Is QBR the weird ESPN one that comes out with some head scratching results? Hurts was amazing against the Bengals, but I wouldn't be using a flawed stat like QBR to judge QB performances on the season 

9 hours ago, Mat said:

Is QBR the weird ESPN one that comes out with some head scratching results? Hurts was amazing against the Bengals, but I wouldn't be using a flawed stat like QBR to judge QB performances on the season 

I'm not sure what would be a head-scratching result to you, but QBR tries to factor in other things the QB does instead of just giving the QB a rating based entirely on statistics that don't necessarily paint an accurate picture of the QB's performance. The idea with QBR is that 50 indicates an "average" performance. Less than 50 would be below average and more than 50 would be above (obviously).

1 hour ago, brkmsn said:

I'm not sure what would be a head-scratching result to you, but QBR tries to factor in other things the QB does instead of just giving the QB a rating based entirely on statistics that don't necessarily paint an accurate picture of the QB's performance. The idea with QBR is that 50 indicates an "average" performance. Less than 50 would be below average and more than 50 would be above (obviously).

Using just this week as an example, Goff wasn't asked to throw much, went 12 of 15 for 85 yards and 3 TD's and a passer rating of 129.9. His QBR was 15.3. In the same game Rudolph went 22 of 38 for 266 yards, 1 TD, 2 INT's for a passer rating of 66.3 and his QBR was also 66.3. It's a useless stat that heavily weighs on late game plays, so when a team is running out the clock the QB ends up with a trash QBR. Goff was ranked 32nd in QBR for the week. Only Geno Smith was ranked worse out of the starting QB's. That's worse than guys like Anthony Richardson, Spencer Rattler and Bryce Young to name a handful of guys

1 hour ago, Mat said:

Using just this week as an example, Goff wasn't asked to throw much, went 12 of 15 for 85 yards and 3 TD's and a passer rating of 129.9. His QBR was 15.3. In the same game Rudolph went 22 of 38 for 266 yards, 1 TD, 2 INT's for a passer rating of 66.3 and his QBR was also 66.3. It's a useless stat that heavily weighs on late game plays, so when a team is running out the clock the QB ends up with a trash QBR. Goff was ranked 32nd in QBR for the week. Only Geno Smith was ranked worse out of the starting QB's. That's worse than guys like Anthony Richardson, Spencer Rattler and Bryce Young to name a handful of guys

Not really. QBR also figures in rushing, decision making, sacks (ones that are the fault of the QB), and other things. Goff's 3 TDs were all short passes to wide open targets. He was sacked 4 times for 33 yards and had 2 fumbles. 

Here's a brief explanation from wikipedia (click for more details)

There are six steps to building QBR:^[7]

• Each QB "action play" (passes, rushes, sacks, scrambles, or penalties attributable to the QB) is measured in terms of the expected points added (EPA)
• Adjust for the difficulty of each play. EPA is adjusted based on the type and depth of a pass, and whether the QB was pressured.
• If there is a completion, he only is credited for the typical number of yards after the catch (passer rating takes all yards into effect) based on the type and depth of the pass
• There is a discount on garbage time, or a time where the score is out of reach near the end of the game.
• Opponent adjustment: More credit is given with tougher defenses and vice versa.
• QBR averages the adjusted EPA per play and transforms it to a 0 to 100 scale, with 50 being average.

On 10/31/2024 at 2:03 PM, brkmsn said:

Not really. QBR also figures in rushing, decision making, sacks (ones that are the fault of the QB), and other things. Goff's 3 TDs were all short passes to wide open targets. He was sacked 4 times for 33 yards and had 2 fumbles. 

Here's a brief explanation from wikipedia (click for more details)

There are six steps to building QBR:^[7]

• Each QB "action play" (passes, rushes, sacks, scrambles, or penalties attributable to the QB) is measured in terms of the expected points added (EPA)
• Adjust for the difficulty of each play. EPA is adjusted based on the type and depth of a pass, and whether the QB was pressured.
• If there is a completion, he only is credited for the typical number of yards after the catch (passer rating takes all yards into effect) based on the type and depth of the pass
• There is a discount on garbage time, or a time where the score is out of reach near the end of the game.
• Opponent adjustment: More credit is given with tougher defenses and vice versa.
• QBR averages the adjusted EPA per play and transforms it to a 0 to 100 scale, with 50 being average.

It's a made up formula by ESPN that they don't make public and it skews a bunch of variables that it views a particular way. Wide open or not, no reasonable person would think that Mason Rudolph or Bryce Young had a better game than Goff, because the game was over early they give it a discount because it was garbage time after the first 10 minutes in that game. Passer rating has it's flaws, but QBR is not a stat that I would use to praise or critique a players performance. Cam Newton won an MVP and was the 11th ranked QB using their 'formula'. He had the 8th best passer rating and a stat that is supposed to account for a guy that had an extra 10 rushing TD's and 636 yards on the ground. Kyler is currently QB3 based on QBR for the season? Are you trying to tell me that Murray is the 3rd best QB in the league right now? 

This is not me discrediting Hurts from having a great game against the Bengals, it's just a stupid f'ing stat that should not be referenced when talking about a QB. 

1 hour ago, Mat said:

It's a made up formula by ESPN that they don't make public and it skews a bunch of variables that it views a particular way. Wide open or not, no reasonable person would think that Mason Rudolph or Bryce Young had a better game than Goff, because the game was over early they give it a discount because it was garbage time after the first 10 minutes in that game. Passer rating has it's flaws, but QBR is not a stat that I would use to praise or critique a players performance. Cam Newton won an MVP and was the 11th ranked QB using their 'formula'. He had the 8th best passer rating and a stat that is supposed to account for a guy that had an extra 10 rushing TD's and 636 yards on the ground. Kyler is currently QB3 based on QBR for the season? Are you trying to tell me that Murray is the 3rd best QB in the league right now? 

My argument has been and continues to be that the traditional stats like passer rating, combined with the newer developed formulas like QBR and grades like PFF provides, combined offer a more complete picture of the impact an individual player had on the game or season. 

Now, your argument that "garbage time" discounted Goff's grade at points in the game would likely be true, but at that same point in the game, it's garbage time for Rudolph. The difference is Rudolph was facing a much better defense (which factors in the grade) and had different situations in the game where passing is more difficult and the defense was keying to stop the pass. 

I'm not really trying to defend ESPN because I agree it would be better for them to be more transparent. I'm just trying to explain what you're seeing specifically in your example. People really shouldn't get upset about a single game rating or grade. I think when you look at the season ratings and grades, everything tends to fall a lot closer to where you would expect. A single game low rating or grade that doesn't match stats usually means a player didn't have to do much.

Why is it so hard to believe that Murray is having a good season too? Fans want to rank QBs. Stats do not. Stats only provide information without context. Grades and ratings try to provide some context. If we only went off stats, the best QBs every year would be RBs because of trick plays. Are you telling me that Malik Willis is the best actual QB in the NFL because of his 130.3 passer rating or his  88 QBR? I would think the answer is, "no." But Willis did play well as a backup and his team should be very happy. Murray, btw, has been playing some of his best football and has done a pretty good job avoiding sacks and mistakes. His running has been very efficient. I personally think Goff is a nice story of an overrated prospect that disappointed as a starter in his first stint and was dumped to a team where he didn't have to be "the guy" and things have fallen into place. But he is nowhere close to the guy that he was traded for. Rhetorically, what QBs would you choose Goff over right now? Goff's story to me seems very similar to Alex Smith's so far.

On 10/28/2024 at 4:26 PM, brkmsn said:

I disagree with the idea that we don't have a serviceable #3. As I alluded to in my earlier post, I don't expect any player to be perfect. There will be things about a player's game that the player excels at and things where he may be lacking. To date, one of my criticisms of Hurts is that he is slow to trust the unfamiliar. He's pretty much on the same page with Brown, Smith and Goedert, but it has taken him a long time to really get comfortable throwing to Calcaterra who is a very capable pass-catching TE. Based on the first two games this season, I feel Jalen was demonstrating trust in Covey as the #3 WR. I know we invested a significant pick in Dotson, but I really feel like he's not being targeted much due to a lack of developed chemistry between him and Jalen and not because he isn't serviceable.

I believe over time it (chemistry) will develop. Every practice will be important along the way. Right now, there are other new things on Jalen's plate offensively. He's calling the protections for now (Kelce used to take care of that) and there are things like motion that is being used much more and those depend more on timing than plays without motion. He's being asked to take more snaps than usual under center which also takes him out of his comfort zone. I feel like the changes to the offense Moore brings in are becoming more familiar to Jalen and getting Dotson involved more will eventually happen. 

I've been busy with a few other things, so I haven't really sat down and rewatched Dotson through the first several games to evaluate what he has done on the field so far and I'd be interested to watch a video if somebody else has already done the work. But I just can't flat out state we don't have a serviceable WR3 when our QB has never really targeted any WR3 all that much in any season. We've had Quez, OZ, Jones, and now Dotson and all of them have had a productive season in the NFL at some point, but as WR3 on this team, were rarely targeted. Even Greg Ward was serviceable, so that bar isn't really high honestly. Nobody will produce much, though, if you don't throw to him. 

We do have a serviceable #3. But that #3 can't step up into the #1 or #2 role if AJ or Devonta go down. But then again most teams don't have that kind of depth. Almost no team has that kind of depth. The offensive drop-off without AJ alone is the most concerning thing to me. But hopefully the team has made if through their injury woes at the WR position for now.

I'm a bit surprised that we didn't lean more on Barkley with some of those guys went down. The offense is finding its groove now though.

3 hours ago, Devaster said:

We do have a serviceable #3. But that #3 can't step up into the #1 or #2 role if AJ or Devonta go down. But then again most teams don't have that kind of depth. Almost no team has that kind of depth. The offensive drop-off without AJ alone is the most concerning thing to me. But hopefully the team has made if through their injury woes at the WR position for now.

I'm a bit surprised that we didn't lean more on Barkley with some of those guys went down. The offense is finding its groove now though.

I think Dotson can, but I don't think Hurts has the kind of trust in him yet to really look that way. The longer Dotson is here, the closer that day will be, but, IMO, the next major step Hurts needs to make in his game is giving up all his crutches. What's the worst that can happen if he throws a good pass Dotson's way?

10 hours ago, brkmsn said:

I think Dotson can, but I don't think Hurts has the kind of trust in him yet to really look that way. The longer Dotson is here, the closer that day will be, but, IMO, the next major step Hurts needs to make in his game is giving up all his crutches. What's the worst that can happen if he throws a good pass Dotson's way?

They’ve got to get more out of Dotson as they need to be ready for the games when they are without AJ or Smith (or both). We already have faced that this year and it was not pretty. They traded good assets to get Dotson and so far no return on that.

Forget QBR for a moment and look at that passer rating. Not bad for a "running back playing quarterback.”

I've been a supporter of Hurts since he became the starter......I felt he was going to develop into a complete QB.

However, it's impossible to predict when a QBs development will hit a wall.  Hurts has indeed hit a wall.  His progressions remain too slow and can not get to his 3rd and 4th read and he struggles with anticipating a WR coming open.

 

He played pretty well yesterday imo. Overall, he's played much better since the bye. They did some good self scouting and he made some good adjustments. He's taking sacks but he's not turning the ball over which is a major win. Now if we can just get the refs to stop turning the ball over and our head coach to stop making bonehead calls we should be fine.

5 hours ago, birdman#12 said:

However, it's impossible to predict when a QBs development will hit a wall.  Hurts has indeed hit a wall.

Lucky for us the wall happened to be "in the conversation for mvp."