Daily Fantasy

[paco]

Anyone?  Bueler?  Bueler? 

 

Wouldn't mind having a thread to talk about chalk, fades, value plays etc.  

 

Anyway, if anyone cares

  

46 minutes ago, paco said:

This is what I (currently) think of rolling with this weekend:

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Chances are I'll f with the lineups and cancel a few, but whatever.... feel free to laugh.

Already changed up the last lineup  

Spoiler

 

[paco]

I've started using this section at cbssports to look for trends beyond position rank.  For example, last week I featured Hunter Henry a bit because the Saints have allowed at least one TD to TE's in every game this year.  That trend continued with Henry posting 4-23-1 on 8 targets.

 

The Eagles vs TE?

WEEK	TEAM	TARGT	RECPT	YD	AVG	TD	FL
1	Rwords	8	4	37	9.25	1	0
2	Rams	5	5	54	10.8	3	0
3	Bengals	1	1	1	1	0	0
4	49ers	15	15	183	12.2	1	0
5	Steelers	7	6	47	7.83	0	1

 

A bit hit or miss.  R-words have a terrible offense and the Bengals have a rookie (and who is their TE, really).  But we got torched against a good TE in Higbee (strong finish last year, strong start this year but has fell off) and an elite one in Kittle (kept out of the end zone, but good god racked up the catches and yards).  So this week, given that Mark Andrews has been a BIG part of the Ravens offense and having him vs our trash at LBs...  lets say I'm happy to have higher exposure there.

 

I have been focusing on opposing defense trends against TE's this year now more than ever.  When you get outside the big 3 (Kelce, Kittle, Andrews), its a huge crap shoot.  Last week Henry was a perfect example.  Flopped on catches and yards BUT saved his day with a TD against a defenses that has been giving them up to the TE position.  Late in the season, if you can identify a good matchup in recent trends (vs a year long ranking), TE can be a good place to get value.

[wtfcares]

3 hours ago, paco said:

I've started using this section at cbssports to look for trends beyond position rank.  For example, last week I featured Hunter Henry a bit because the Saints have allowed at least one TD to TE's in every game this year.  That trend continued with Henry posting 4-23-1 on 8 targets.

 

The Eagles vs TE?

WEEK	TEAM	TARGT	RECPT	YD	AVG	TD	FL
1	Rwords	8	4	37	9.25	1	0
2	Rams	5	5	54	10.8	3	0
3	Bengals	1	1	1	1	0	0
4	49ers	15	15	183	12.2	1	0
5	Steelers	7	6	47	7.83	0	1

 

A bit hit or miss.  R-words have a terrible offense and the Bengals have a rookie (and who is their TE, really).  But we got torched against a good TE in Higbee (strong finish last year, strong start this year but has fell off) and an elite one in Kittle (kept out of the end zone, but good god racked up the catches and yards).  So this week, given that Mark Andrews has been a BIG part of the Ravens offense and having him vs our trash at LBs...  lets say I'm happy to have higher exposure there.

 

I have been focusing on opposing defense trends against TE's this year now more than ever.  When you get outside the big 3 (Kelce, Kittle, Andrews), its a huge crap shoot.  Last week Henry was a perfect example.  Flopped on catches and yards BUT saved his day with a TD against a defenses that has been giving them up to the TE position.  Late in the season, if you can identify a good matchup in recent trends (vs a year long ranking), TE can be a good place to get value.

How about Eagles vs. end arounds? Woods, Ayuik, Claypool, and Wey-wey(?) have all had massive success with it. I imagine the ravens will use a lot of it with Duvernay. 

[paco]

I like it.  But I have a feeling Hollywood has a chance to be Claypool part 2.  His speed is going to kill us.

[paco]

Some thoughts for todays DFS.

 

Chalk I'm willing to eat:

Adam Thielen: One of the most productive receivers against Atlanta's defense?   Even if he has an 80% ownership rate, I am in.  After two duds, he scored 22.2 and 24.8 points respectively.  Now he gets the one secondary that is envious of our coverage skills?  

 

 

Upper tier value:

AJ Brown: Last week against a stingy Bills defense, he scored 17.7 points (7-82-1).  This week he gets another tough matchup on paper.  This has driven down his price and I think $6500 is a steal for him this week.

 

 

Cheap D :

NY Giants: This is one of the most middle of the road defenses out there.  13th in yards allowed.  18th in points allowed.  16th in takeaways.  What they get is fantasy steroids' in a putrid Washington offense.  Their quarterback situation is in complete disarray.  Their line allows sacks all day (8 last week alone).  And priced at $3900 on Fanduel, a mere $700 above opportunity cost.  Compare that to the Colts, $5000, and the Ravens, $4900, both of whom are going against bad offenses as well.  Production should be comparable and you get an extra $1000 to invest elsewhere.  

 

 

Plays that I am making that I am concerned with:

Kareem Hunt: Chubb going down makes Hunt the top back in Cleveland. What was the top rushing attack before the injury would normally be the Kareem Hunt show.  This may not be the case for two reasons.  First, Johnson ran well last week.  It was a 20-8 split between the two of them, but Johnson made the most of it with a 4.0 ypg.  I expect that share to narrow closer to 60-40%.  Second, Mayfield is gimpy as is OBJ.  I can see the Colts focusing on shutting down the run and making the Browns try to beat them through the air.

Alexander Mattison: Usually when the top guy is ruled out, the backup is the obvious value play.  Not this week.  Fanduel has him at $7000, making him the 7th most expensive runningback on the morning/afternoon slate.  If he was playing anyone BUT Atlanta, I wouldn't want him on my roster, but he should have plenty of scoring opportunities and looked solid last week.  I'm playing him, but I recognize the risk.  

Edit: If you are one of the 5 people that play DFS on Yahoo, he is DIRT cheap.

[paco]

Chark is active....I'm liking Shenault a lot less now.  Pulled him for Jones in one lineup but leaving him in the Minshew lineup.

 

Almost wondering if I should trade out Jones (where he is a flex) for Cooks.  I don't like having 75% exposure on any one player.

[paco]

  

9 hours ago, paco said:

Chalk I'm willing to eat:

Adam Thielen: One of the most productive receivers against Atlanta's defense?   Even if he has an 80% ownership rate, I am in.  After two duds, he scored 22.2 and 24.8 points respectively.  Now he gets the one secondary that is envious of our coverage skills?  

 

3-51-1

If you asked me his floor, it would be around this point total.  Disappointing.

  

9 hours ago, paco said:

Upper tier value:

AJ Brown: Last week against a stingy Bills defense, he scored 17.7 points (7-82-1).  This week he gets another tough matchup on paper.  This has driven down his price and I think $6500 is a steal for him this week.

Brown came through nicely, with a line of 5-56-2.  I was counting on more receptions and yards, so the second TD made up for the modest yardage.

 

  

9 hours ago, paco said:

Cheap D :

NY Giants: This is one of the most middle of the road defenses out there.  13th in yards allowed.  18th in points allowed.  16th in takeaways.  What they get is fantasy steroids' in a putrid Washington offense.  Their quarterback situation is in complete disarray.  Their line allows sacks all day (8 last week alone).  And priced at $3900 on Fanduel, a mere $700 above opportunity cost.  Compare that to the Colts, $5000, and the Ravens, $4900, both of whom are going against bad offenses as well.  Production should be comparable and you get an extra $1000 to invest elsewhere.  

New York Giants came through with a top 5 finish among defenses.  Somehow they allowed the R-words to score 19 points which kept them from being the top defense of the day.

 

9 hours ago, paco said:

Plays that I am making that I am concerned with:

Kareem Hunt: Chubb going down makes Hunt the top back in Cleveland. What was the top rushing attack before the injury would normally be the Kareem Hunt show.  This may not be the case for two reasons.  First, Johnson ran well last week.  It was a 20-8 split between the two of them, but Johnson made the most of it with a 4.0 ypg.  I expect that share to narrow closer to 60-40%.  Second, Mayfield is gimpy as is OBJ.  I can see the Colts focusing on shutting down the run and making the Browns try to beat them through the air.

Alexander Mattison: Usually when the top guy is ruled out, the backup is the obvious value play.  Not this week.  Fanduel has him at $7000, making him the 7th most expensive runningback on the morning/afternoon slate.  If he was playing anyone BUT Atlanta, I wouldn't want him on my roster, but he should have plenty of scoring opportunities and looked solid last week.  I'm playing him, but I recognize the risk.  

Edit: If you are one of the 5 people that play DFS on Yahoo, he is DIRT cheap.

Both players disappointed.  Hunt was absolutely contained by the Steelers defense.  I saw this a mile away, but since I too often over think things and make last minute changes that shoot me in the foot, I left him in. (more on that in a second)  Mattison.... well shoot, I forgot one angle that cannot be ignored: Curt Cuzins!  My god, it seems like every time I forget how awful he is, he gives me a swift kick to the nuts.  Thankfully both of these players we contained to one lineup and didn't sink  the rest.

 

7 hours ago, paco said:

Chark is active....I'm liking Shenault a lot less now.  Pulled him for Jones in one lineup but leaving him in the Minshew lineup.

 

Almost wondering if I should trade out Jones (where he is a flex) for Cooks.  I don't like having 75% exposure on any one player.

Pulling Shenault for Jones III proved to be the right move.  Through 3 quarters he has 105 yards and 2 TDs.  Last minute decision rewarded.

As for Cooks, the only thing that kept me from pulling the trigger is that it was in the Minshew lineup.  I almost always pair my QB with a pass catcher.  Not making the swap cost me 14.7 points.  Making matters worse, this was my best lineup of the day so it will be painful to see if that would have moved me up a few pay tiers.

Edit: Yup.  Nothing earth shattering, but instead of a 70% increase I could have had a double up day. 

 

 

Also Mark Andrews

[paco]

This week I'm having a bit tougher of a read and so far have only come up with one lineup I kind of like

Murray should have an absolute monster of a game, so he (and Kamara) are who I built the lineup around.  I always try to pair my QB with a receiving option of theirs but couldn't afford Hopkins, so I'm hoping Kirk's big game last week carries over some.  If Hopkins is out, then Kirk becomes more of a no brainer.

 

In Hunt's spot I originally had Kelley, but with the left over $$$ and Kelley's current lack of production, I shifted to Hunt

 

Cooks has been on fire ever since Houston fired BOB, yet the price is still reasonable.  My only worry is that by not playing him last week and it costing me several pay tiers makes this pick more of an emotional one.  

 

At TE, you either pay for Kelce or Kittle, or you spin the wheel and hope you hit.  Henery looks to have a solid game against a bad defense, yet has 7 TE's ahead of him $$$ wise on FanDuel.  Included in that group are Jonnu Smith, Jared Cook, Noah Fant, Robert Tonyan and T.J. Hockenson.  I believe he has a chance to outperform most if not all of those options.

 

Finally, don't let McLaurin in the slot fool you.  I LOVE Scary Terry this week and going in I wanted this to be a Murray-Kamara-McLaurin-Murray's target lineup.  But while building it I originally didn't think I could afford the $7100 price tag, so I built the rest to see what I had left over for the flex spot.  I ended up having $8000 to spend in that slot, so I happily put him in there and "upgraded" Kelley to Hunt.

[paco]

After the above post, I thought "Screw it, I'll do a mindless lineup against the worst Defenses and see how it plays out".  Falcons and Cowboys have been the two I target all year round.  Unfortunately they play Detroit and the R-words, so I get a lineup full of people I would never play, sans Scary Terry

In addition, I have a rule.  "Play RBs vs Green Bay, especially in showdowns".  They built a smaller, faster defense over the past two years that allow RBs to grind yards.  In showdowns vs the Packers, I'll often take both the #1 and #2 RB on a team.  This served me well when we beat them last year as both Howard and Sanders produced.  So..... David Johnson.

 

Diggs has been clicking with Allen all year and the Jets secondary is a mess. Other than Scary Terry, this might be the only player I have selected multiple times this year.  

 

Finally, James Connor.  Yawn.  But.... he gets volume and the matchup is there.  So hopefully this doesn't be quiet in the a** considering George Kittle would have also fit nicely in the flex.  I was going for a "pure matchup" lineup, so logic be damned.

 

I'm not putting any additional money behind this besides the millionaire entry.  Pure experimental and I recommend nothing.  Well, nothing but McLaurin

[paco]

Results:

  

On 10/23/2020 at 9:50 AM, paco said:

Murray should have an absolute monster of a game, so he (and Kamara) are who I built the lineup around.  I always try to pair my QB with a receiving option of theirs but couldn't afford Hopkins, so I'm hoping Kirk's big game last week carries over some.  If Hopkins is out, then Kirk becomes more of a no brainer. Murray went off for 360 passing yards, 3 passing TDs and 1 INT, 67 rushing yards and a TD for 38.1 points.  Kirk did little in terms of yards and catches, but did find the end zone twice giving him 18.2 points surprisingly putting him just 1.1 points behind teammate Hopkins.  Kamara did not score this week but did produce yardage wise.  83 rushing yards and 8 catches for 65 yards.  18.8 points is nice for most running backs, but given Kamara's price point its a bit disappointing.

 

In Hunt's spot I originally had Kelley, but with the left over $$$ and Kelley's current lack of production, I shifted to Hunt.  Hunt had a good day, netting me 17.7 points where as Kelley only had 7.8.

 

Cooks has been on fire ever since Houston fired BOB, yet the price is still reasonable.  My only worry is that by not playing him last week and it costing me several pay tiers makes this pick more of an emotional one.  Should have trusted my gut.  7 catches for 60 yards netted only 9.5 points.  But he was not the biggest drag on the team.

 

At TE, you either pay for Kelce or Kittle, or you spin the wheel and hope you hit.  Henery looks to have a solid game against a bad defense, yet has 7 TE's ahead of him $$$ wise on FanDuel.  Included in that group are Jonnu Smith (1.4), Jared Cook(10.7), Noah Fant(5.3), Robert Tonyan(4.2) and T.J. Hockenson(14.4).  I believe he has a chance to outperform most if not all of those options.  Yes, Henery got hurt in the fourth quarter, but before that he was stinking up the joint.  3 catches for 23 yards. 3.8 points  Meanwhile teammate Green found paydirt, making him a better and cheaper play.  Oh, and the TE's ahead of him?  I put their point totals after them. Only Jonnu Smith faired worse with Hockesnson being the play, thanks to a strong final drive where he made multiple catches and scored the game winning TD.

 

Finally, don't let McLaurin in the slot fool you.  I LOVE Scary Terry this week and going in I wanted this to be a Murray-Kamara-McLaurin-Murray's target lineup.  But while building it I originally didn't think I could afford the $7100 price tag, so I built the rest to see what I had left over for the flex spot.  I ended up having $8000 to spend in that slot, so I happily put him in there and "upgraded" Kelley to Hunt. Big game against a putrid Dallas D.  7-90-1 for 18.5 points.

Also, KC's defense was the play. 2 TDs, 2 Fumble Recoveries, 2 Int's, 3 sacks and held them to 16 points.  Monster day with 24 fantasy points.

End Result: 159 points and cashed.

 

On 10/23/2020 at 10:06 AM, paco said:

In addition, I have a rule.  "Play RBs vs Green Bay, especially in showdowns".  They built a smaller, faster defense over the past two years that allow RBs to grind yards.  In showdowns vs the Packers, I'll often take both the #1 and #2 RB on a team.  This served me well when we beat them last year as both Howard and Sanders produced.  So..... David Johnson Despite losing a fumble, Johnson had a nice day given his price point with 42 rushing yards to go with 6-42-1 in the air for 14.4 points

 

Diggs has been clicking with Allen all year and the Jets secondary is a mess. Other than Scary Terry, this might be the only player I have selected multiple times this year.  6-48 for 7.8.  Meh

 

Finally, James Connor.  Yawn.  But.... he gets volume and the matchup is there.  So hopefully this doesn't be quiet in the a** considering George Kittle would have also fit nicely in the flex.  I was going for a "pure matchup" lineup, so logic be damned.  Not bad, not great for Conner 82 rushing yards and 3 catches for 29 yards.  Snell vultured a rushing TD which would have made a nice day for Conner. 

 

I'm not putting any additional money behind this besides the millionaire entry.  Pure experimental and I recommend nothing.  Well, nothing but McLaurin.  McLaurin came through.  Hockessen and Swift were surprisingly good plays at their price points.  Everything else was meh to bad. 

End result: 127.3 points and missed the pay line by 20.  Experiment failed

Had multiple entries with the first line up and only one with the experimental one.  All in all made 70.1% on my entry fees Sunday.  

 

So I actually managed to string 2 good Sundays in a row after getting my a** kicked all year.  I don't think anyone is reading this, but I'll give this thread a shot one more week to see if the streak continues.