Truth Hurts 12/16/20

[eaglesfan0075]

With Jalen Hurts rallying the Eagles to a win over the Saints, another upset here or even a winning streak isn't out of the question. Unfortunately, that means we may not see meaningful change in the front office or coaching staff with regards to Howie or Doug. Wentz could even stick around on his bloated contract due to how much dead money the team would have to eat if they tried to trade/cut him, but I think the pressure from Hurts will force a move. If Hurts, Reagor, and any other rookie from this year's class continue to contribute, we may be stuck with at least one more year of Howie in the building despite his previous draft blunders.

Jeff Lurie steps in as the owner and instead of firing Howie or Doug, he mandates them to take a backseat in responsibility in drafting (seeing the discrepancy in our scouts versus Howie) and play-calling respectively. Unfortunately, no one worthwhile from another team accepts an invitation to interview for the GM position with these two guys still around, so the team is forced to promote from within, while they dig deep to fill the coordinator spots as they probably get rejected by their top candidates:

Andy Weidl promoted to GM and Howie gets a new title with a pay bonus but less responsibility (back to the basement) - Weidl was already "in charge of setting up the draft board" this past year per reports, but Howie reportedly made the final calls and supposedly overruled Weidl + the scouts if he wanted someone else than who they reportedly recommended (Jalen Reagor over Justin Jefferson, Jalen Hurts over Jeremy Chinn, etc...) Let's see how good our scouts really are with Weidl truly running the show now, and maybe we already have our legit traditional GM on the team?

*Jim Hostler (Washington Football Team WR Coach) hired as OC - Hostler was the Ravens WR coach from 2008-2013, overlapping with Weidl's time in Baltimore. He has a lot of positional coaching experience in the NFL (13 years WR coach, 2 years TE coach, 3 years QB coach) and some coordinator experience as well (49ers OC in 2007, Packers passing game coordinator in 2018) on top of college football coaching experience as an OC, RBs coach, WR coach, and even LB coach. He's a Western PA native, so there may be some appeal to come back to his home state as an offensive coordinator.

*Teryl Austin (Steelers Senior Defensive Assistant/Secondary Coach) hired as DC as Jim Schwartz's contract is not renewed - Austin was the Ravens secondary coach from 2011-2013 and has 5 years experience as a coordinator with the Lions and Bengals running the 4-3. He did very well his first year with the Lions, with the team ranking 1st in rushing yards allowed, 2nd in yards per game allowed, 3rd in points allowed, and 13th in pass yards allowed. His 2nd year was average and 3rd year was below average with the Lions. After a terrible 3 game stretch with the Bengals with 500+ yards given, his stint in Cincinnati was cut short to 1 season. Now he's rehabbing his image with the Steelers and could be looking to jump on a DC job. He's also a Western PA native, so he may very well be happy staying in Pittsburgh, but still worth reaching out to and gauging interest.

(*edited, formerly Duce Staley OC, Marquand Manuel DC)

 

Trade away:

Carson Wentz to the Colts for a 2021 1st round pick - This is the hardest trade to predict as the contract and 2020 performance could also mean a severe sell-low situation for us, maybe even a Brock Osweiler type trade? I'm banking on Frank Reich seeing a lot of potential in Wentz here and backing that up with a 1st round pick.

Zach Ertz to the Packers for a 2021 4th round pick - I agree with the valuation that Ray75 put on Ertz at this juncture (solid mock offseason by the way, if you're reading this); we'd be lucky to get a 4th with how things are playing out

Malik Jackson to the Seahawks for a 2022 7th round pick - More of a salary dump, don't expect to get much value here

 

Restructure:

Fletcher Cox, Brandon Graham

Notable cuts/departures:

Alshon Jeffrey, DeSean Jackson, Nickel-Robey Coleman, Vinny Curry, JJAW

 

In this scenario, I have the Eagles hovering around picks 8-12. (*edited, previously Nick Bolton LB Missouri)

Round 1: Gregory Rousseau DE Miami - Having Weidl running the show this time around swings the pendulum towards Rousseau, who garners comparisons to Calais Campbell (currently on the Ravens), someone you would envision the Ravens taking if they picked this high, instead of Kwity Paye, who ironically compares to Brandon Graham, Howie's first ever pick.

Round 1 (IND): Jaycee Horn CB South Carolina - Darius Slay as CB1 finally brought some stability at CB, but the Eagles need a legitimate starter at CB2. Avonte Maddox is best in the nickel or as a backup safety. Horn has the size and athleticism to play on the outside. Player comps for Horn range from Marlon Humphrey (another Raven) to James Bradberry.

Round 2: *Terrace Marshall Jr. WR LSU - The Eagles finally get their stud LSU WR after passing on Justin Jefferson in the 2020 draft. At 6'3 and 200 lbs, Marshall has the size to play at XWR, allowing Jalen Reagor to slide into his natural fit as a ZWR, as Reagor's skill set is closer to DeSean Jackson, who played the Z. Marshall becomes the outside XWR that JJ Arcega-Whiteside was supposed to be.

Round 3: Hamsah Nasirildeen S Florida State - With Rodney McLeod likely not coming back next season, the Eagles can use more depth at safety. Nasirildeen and K'Von Wallace could potentially be a solid young duo at S, with Jalen Mills serving as the 3rd safety/depth CB.

Round 4 (GB):  Trey Hill C/G Georgia - Jason Kelce is nearing retirement so it's important to have an heir apparent ready to go; if Isaac Seumalo moves to C, that would still leave a hole at OG, so why not just bring in a C prospect to groom behind Kelce. Hill did play some RG and moved around the line to fill in for injuries in 2018, so the positional versatility is there.

Round 5 (DAL): Charleston Rambo WR Oklahoma - With Jalen Hurts now running the show, reuniting him with one of his former teammates could provide him with another weapon to rely on in the passing game;  Rambo is not the biggest WR at 6'1 and 175 lbs, but he could push Greg Ward for the slot WR position, while Travis Fulgham, John Hightower, and Quez Watkins duke it out for the remaining WR spots. Plenty of options at WR now and the team should now feel better about running 4 or 5 WR sets when the situation calls for it.

Round 6: Keaontay Ingram RB Texas - Ingram comes in at 6'0 and 220 lbs as the power back to complement Miles Sanders and Boston Scott, forming a new three headed monster in what is hopefully a more run-friendly offense.

Round 7: Nick Eubanks TE Michigan - Eubanks has good size (6'5, 255 lbs), but isn't much of a blocker; he can compete with Richard Rodgers for the TE2 spot behind Dallas Goedert.

[ibleedgreen1990]

This would be amazing for the most part if it happened this way. Also assuming if Hurts continues to ball out.

Honestly not a fan of the first round for the Eagles. I would be much happier walking away with Caleb Farley or Surtain as the higher pick and then whoever is left out of Chase, Waddle, and smith with the mid round pick. 
 

would be happy with rounds 2 and 3 for sure. Other guys I honestly don’t know much about but will have to check out. Thanks for the read!

[Ray75]

Love the promotion of Andy Weidl. Very underrated GM candidate.

Dislike the ones of Duce and Manuel . Doesn’t do anything to improve the team.

Love about all your picks except the first. Rousseau is a boom or bust prospect. Very raw but with huge upside. Kinda compare it to the Dion Jordan situation all those years ago. A kid with the ideal measurables who tested great but very raw. Thank God the Dolphins jumped us to grab him. Major bust!

Nope, I want a " as sure as it can get” prospect with a top 10 pick. If you do want to go edge, I’d be way more comfortable taking Kwity Paye there.

The other knock here is you waited way to long to address the WR position. IMO one of our biggest needs to get right for once no matter who’s under center.

[eaglesfan0075]

Definitely good suggestions and I've incorporated a few of them in updating my mock above.

You can certainly make a good case for Farley/Surtain followed by a different position like WR with the late 1st. I personally felt there was more of a drop off at DE after Rousseau and Paye and the next tier of edge rushers compared to the 2nd tier of CB prospects after Farley/Surtain. 

I partly agree on Rousseau in terms of him being raw, but I don't think he's as much of a project as Dion Jordan. Rousseau was more productive in 1 season at Miami than Jordan was in a total of 4 years at Oregon. His 15.5 sacks in the ACC is more than what Jordan mustered in his entire Pac-12 career. The Rousseau and Paye debate reminds me of Jason Pierre Paul vs Brandon Graham in 2010. Raw athletic upside with 1 monster year versus high motor and consistent production. I'm a fan of BG but it's hard to argue him having the better overall career than JPP statistically. BG has zero double digit sack seasons (JPP x3), Pro Bowls (JPP x2), or 1st team All-Pros (JPP x1) to his name. 

Regarding WR, that's a valid point. It's tough to balance addressing needs in the appropriate rounds to maximize value, especially if you're not mocking a WR in round 1. Maybe swap that LB or S for a WR in Round 2-3 if not using one of the 1st rounders on one? That way both sides of the ball get some love early on.

I do like the coaches you suggested in your mock Ray, and it would be awesome if we could get some quality external candidates for OC and DC, but if last offseason is any indication I would expect a lot of rejected invitations if we're still keeping Doug and Howie. Maybe I'm wrong and it's not as much wishful thinking as I thought?

[Ray75]

2 hours ago, eaglesfan0075 said:

Definitely good suggestions.

You can certainly make a good case for Farley/Surtain followed by a different position like WR with the late 1st. I personally felt there was more of a drop off at DE after Rousseau and Paye and the next tier of edge rushers compared to the 2nd tier of CB prospects after Farley/Surtain. 

I partly agree on Rousseau in terms of him being raw, but I don't think he's as much of a project as Dion Jordan. Rousseau was more productive in 1 season at Miami than Jordan was in a total of 4 years at Oregon. His 15.5 sacks in the ACC is more than what Jordan mustered in his entire Pac-12 career. The Rousseau and Paye debate reminds me of Jason Pierre Paul vs Brandon Graham in 2010. Raw athletic upside versus high motor production. I'm a fan of BG but it's hard to argue him having the better overall career than JPP statistically. BG has zero double digit sack seasons (JPP x3), Pro Bowls (JPP x2), or 1st team All-Pros (JPP x1) to his name. 

Regarding WR, that's a valid point. It's tough to balance addressing needs in the appropriate rounds to maximize value, especially if you're not mocking a WR in round 1. Maybe swap that LB or S for a WR in Round 2-3 if not using one of the 1st rounders on one? That way both sides of the ball get some love early on.

I do like the coaches you suggested in your mock Ray, and it would be awesome if we could get some quality external candidates for OC and DC, but if last offseason is any indication I would expect a lot of rejected invitations if we're still keeping Doug and Howie. Maybe I'm wrong and it's not as much wishful thinking as I thought?

You know what it is?! It’s really hard to project anything, especially for the Eagles.

We don’t know if Lurie keeps both Howie and Doug around. We don’t know what we have in a couple of players (Dillard, Reagor, Hurts, the other young O-linemen). We don’t know what this regime or the next wants to do with CW. 

The list goes on and on. So many unknowns, so many needs to address. It’s hard to start somewhere. At 10ish we could go literally everywhere except for punter, RB, TE etc. The options are multiple but you have to start somewhere right?! Going for a specific position in the first will have huge implications for the rest of the draft.

What we know is that the class is deep at CB, S, IOL and WR but the entire DL class isn’t looking great at all. There is no can’t miss pass rusher in this class, no Bosa or Young here. Same can be said about the DT class.

Personally I wouldn’t touch safety or LB (except for Parsons in the top 10) in the first and agreed the drop off at corner or receiver isn’t that steep.

Then again; someone like Farley, Smith, Chase, Rousseau and Paye offers the right value at/around 10 IMO. I’d be happy with either one of them but I want them to get the best or the one who’ll have the biggest impact.

I’m gonna be honest, I want Chase! But if he’s off the board I’d be happy with Smith, Paye (can easily see Cowboys, Chargers or Falcons taking him, especially if former two can’t find a trade partner), Parsons and Farley to a lesser degree (enough good LB’s and CB’s in the 2nd and even 3rd round to bolster the unit).

We’ll probably have to address safety pretty early with Rodney out.

If we can get a first for CW, I’d lean towards Smith or Chase top 10 and Wyatt Davis, Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah, Eric Stokes, Trevon Moehring or Jaycee Horn with our second first rounder and touch DE later in the draft or in 2022 early. Otherwise we’ll be making the same mistake; passing on specific positions in the first because we’re just uncomfortable addressing those there.

[eaglesfan0075]

I agree, that first pick really sets the tone of the rest of your draft. If I went WR in round 1, I might even skip DE in round 2/3 since the value will be better at another position like DB or even LB.

I incorporated some of your and suggestions above in terms of having external candidates named OC and DC as well as addressing WR earlier than the 5th round. I swapped LB Nick Bolton for WR Terrace Marshall Jr. from LSU.

Would love to get a stud LB but we still don't know what 3rd round pick Davion Taylor brings to the table. Shaun Bradley is now getting some playing time and we've seen some flashes of quality play from Alex Singleton and TJ Edwards. Maybe give it another year.

I guess you can also argue we can get by at DE with Graham, Barnett, Sweat plus depth players for a year. Now you're almost talking me into going WR in round 1 myself 😄.

[Ray75]

53 minutes ago, eaglesfan0075 said:

I agree, that first pick really sets the tone of the rest of your draft. If I went WR in round 1, I might even skip DE in round 2/3 since the value will be better at another position like DB or even LB.

I incorporated some of your and suggestions above in terms of having external candidates named OC and DC as well as addressing WR earlier than the 5th round. I swapped LB Nick Bolton for WR Terrace Marshall Jr. from LSU.

Would love to get a stud LB but we still don't know what 3rd round pick Davion Taylor brings to the table. Shaun Bradley is now getting some playing time and we've seen some flashes of quality play from Alex Singleton and TJ Edwards. Maybe give it another year.

I guess you can also argue we can get by at DE with Graham, Barnett, Sweat plus depth players for a year. Now you're almost talking me into going WR in round 1 myself 😄.

Not my intention! LOL

You know...before I started to study this WR class, I was pretty certain the Eagles were going to address edge with their first round pick. It’s a very underrated but still huge need with BG turning 33 and Barnett unspectacular but solid. If you factor in their draft tendecies, it’s always DL, OL and occasionally WR.

At 9 there’s no O-linemen or DT worthy of that pick but there could be one or two pass rushers available who’d make a ton of sense. Paye and Rousseau.

Then again; the sexy thing to do would be adding an elite talent at WR.

For what it’s worth; if we pick around 10, it’ll come down to Paye, Rousseau, Smith and Chase if I’d have to guess.

Can’t see them going LB or Safety that high, it’s just not in their DNA and I’d be stunned although pleased if they’d take a corner like Farley or Surtain.

Love those assistent coaches, man! Can see you’ve done your homework on them. Love it if someone’s putting this energy, smarts and work into a mock draft. 👊🏻

[eaglesfan0075]

17 hours ago, Ray75 said:

Not my intention! LOL

You know...before I started to study this WR class, I was pretty certain the Eagles were going to address edge with their first round pick. It’s a very underrated but still huge need with BG turning 33 and Barnett unspectacular but solid. If you factor in their draft tendecies, it’s always DL, OL and occasionally WR.

At 9 there’s no O-linemen or DT worthy of that pick but there could be one or two pass rushers available who’d make a ton of sense. Paye and Rousseau.

Then again; the sexy thing to do would be adding an elite talent at WR.

For what it’s worth; if we pick around 10, it’ll come down to Paye, Rousseau, Smith and Chase if I’d have to guess.

Can’t see them going LB or Safety that high, it’s just not in their DNA and I’d be stunned although pleased if they’d take a corner like Farley or Surtain.

Love those assistent coaches, man! Can see you’ve done your homework on them. Love it if someone’s putting this energy, smarts and work into a mock draft. 👊🏻

Thanks man. I definitely see the logic of going WR in Round 1.

As much as the defense could also use help, this is an offense driven league and the WR corps can still use a playmaker to take this group to the next level. DE is certainly also a need but maybe not as pressing? We could probably get by for another season before really needing to invest another season on a 1st round DE, if we're talking positional value here.

Given this front office's history, DL seems like where they could go in that early range, but it'll be interesting to see if having Weidl call the shots would change that.