The state of the Defense

[ManchesterEagle]

This could also be titled "Why I had a major issue with the Dickerson pick". Apologies in advance for this rant.

I do think Howie takes some unfair abuse for certain things. One thing I don't think he gets enough abuse for is completely ignoring the Defense in the draft.

Last 6 years, Howie has used 1 first round pick, 1 second round pick and 1 third round proper pick (Taylor and Douglas were compensatory picks) on the D. That's almost certainly the least anyone has invested in the entire NFL. 

My concern is not necessarily next year (provided they get somebody at outside corner),  we still have Cox, Hargrave, Graham, McLeod, Slay playing pretty well. But none of them will likely be here much longer and there is pretty much no young talent to replace them.

I get the Smith pick. Surtain and Horn were both gone and to be fair I think Smith is probably a class above them anyway. He hopefully gives us a number 1 receiver for the next 10 years.

But after that the second round pick needed to be on the D. Ideally a corner, but if not why not take the best safety in the draft? That's a need as well.

There have been a number of arguments about why Dickerson was the right pick, or why people were okay with it:

1) Dickerson was a first rounder if not for the injuries - great value.

That's like saying a wide receiver would be a first rounder if he could catch. The injuries are real. I truly hope Dickerson stays healthy, but some players are just injury prone. Dickerson hasn't finished 4 of the past 5 years due to injury. Maybe he stays healthy, but everything points to more issues down the line. Very few draft experts had Dickerson as a steal due to the injuries.

2) You don't draft for need - take the best player on your board.

I agree with this to an extent, but I refer again to the complete lack of players drafted on the D over the past 6 years. Maybe Howie just prefers Offensive players, but at some point, you need to address positions of need. The D needed help and young talent all over. Could have taken Samuel JR or Kelvin Joseph. Both were highly rated. If you don't like them, how about Moehrig or Grant, the top 2 safeties. Or JOK who was rated by most as an impact first rounder. Or Barramore? Surely you can draft one of them over a talented O-Lineman who can't stay healthy.

3) O-Line was a need as well!

Yes - we definitely needed to address the interior OL at some point in the draft. Kelce is getting older and could retire soon. Brooks has injury issues. But is the way to back them up drafting a guy who might not be ready until mid-season and who is a huge injury risk? The starting line is pretty good and both Driscoll and Herbig played pretty well last year. Why not draft Kendrick Green or Trey Smith later and let probably our best position coach develop them?

4) You can't address all the Eagles issues at once, we can address the D with our potential 3 firsts next year. 

That is true, but after being neglected for so long, the Eagles D needed some young talent right now. Our only truly good players are towards the end of their careers/on the decline (Cox/Graham/Slay etc). We have pretty much nothing in terms of young talent on the D. On the other hand the O has lots of young talent. Guards can usually start pretty quickly, so why not take one in a later round and if he doesn't work out, take one earlier next year.  

 

[UK_EaglesFan89]

As always bud you make some great points and I agree with most of what you say. 

I'm not big on the Dickerson pick purely on those injuries. For me that's a big risk for any team to take but especially one with the injury record we have. 

To me what compounds that pick is that there was so much defensive talent still on the board. There's no doubt when healthy Dickerson is a stud but there's also no getting away from the injuries. 

[ManchesterEagle]

10 minutes ago, UK_EaglesFan89 said:

As always bud you make some great points and I agree with most of what you say. 

I'm not big on the Dickerson pick purely on those injuries. For me that's a big risk for any team to take but especially one with the injury record we have. 

To me what compounds that pick is that there was so much defensive talent still on the board. There's no doubt when healthy Dickerson is a stud but there's also no getting away from the injuries. 

Agreed completely.

I was so excited when the pick was coming up - so many talented defensive players still on the board. Guess Howie didn't want to keep us happy for too long after the great work with the Smith pick.

[time2rock]

IF Dickerson manages to stay healthy (BIG if), that’ll turn out to be a great pick.  Obviously no way to predict the future or place a percentage on the odds he does stay healthy, but I probably wouldn’t be going out on a limb to say it is unlikely.  Sure hope he proves me wrong.  

And I agree I would have used that pick on defense ... even if their top CBs were gone they could have went LB or S.  There were quite a few prospects that should have been rated high on their board (if not then there is something wrong with their ranking/evaluation process).

[Next_Up]

A healthy player can get an injury/issue that changes their career trajectory— buck, Andrews, etc. all players get injuries. Dickerson is a freakish athlete, great attitude and medicine is better than ever. This is the birds getting the metcalf pick right. I want mailata and Dickerson to steamroll in the run game. 

[vaff]

Rome wasn’t built in a day.

We have a young nucleus now on offense. There are a lot of talented players. Hopefully, Jalen Hurts proves himself to be "the guy”.

Apparently, Jonathan Gannon’s defense is essentially the exact opposite of what Schwartz liked to do. So, he’ll have a chance to see what players fit his system this season, and after finding out who fits and who doesn’t, hopefully he’ll get an infusion of talent next offseason. Also, we did draft a lot of defensive players. They’re all TBD, but some pretty smart people have good things to say about some of them.

[ManchesterEagle]

40 minutes ago, time2rock said:

IF Dickerson manages to stay healthy (BIG if), that’ll turn out to be a great pick.  Obviously no way to predict the future or place a percentage on the odds he does stay healthy, but I probably wouldn’t be going out on a limb to say it is unlikely.  Sure hope he proves me wrong.  

And I agree I would have used that pick on defense ... even if their top CBs were gone they could have went LB or S.  There were quite a few prospects that should have been rated high on their board (if not then there is something wrong with their ranking/evaluation process).

 

17 minutes ago, Next_Up said:

A healthy player can get an injury/issue that changes their career trajectory— buck, Andrews, etc. all players get injuries. Dickerson is a freakish athlete, great attitude and medicine is better than ever. This is the birds getting the metcalf pick right. I want mailata and Dickerson to steamroll in the run game. 

Correct - Dickerson could stay healthy for the rest of his career and a previously uninjured college player could get major issues. But quite simply a player who has had many injuries before is more likely to get injured again than a guy with a clean bill of health.

Metcalf was a big miss in hindsight, but not picking him may have been the right decision at the time, given his injuries and relative lack of production. Will he be Metcalf or will he be Sidney Jones? Most likely somewhere in between. 

There is no hard and fast rules with picking players with injuries, but, as time2rock says, there was a lot of defensive talent on the board in the early second. A lot of guys who were rated as first rounders (Moehrig/JOK) and two who were rated high second rounders at by far our biggest position of need.  

[kentwo]

6 hours ago, ManchesterEagle said:

 

Correct - Dickerson could stay healthy for the rest of his career and a previously uninjured college player could get major issues. But quite simply a player who has had many injuries before is more likely to get injured again than a guy with a clean bill of health.

Metcalf was a big miss in hindsight, but not picking him may have been the right decision at the time, given his injuries and relative lack of production. Will he be Metcalf or will he be Sidney Jones? Most likely somewhere in between. 

There is no hard and fast rules with picking players with injuries, but, as time2rock says, there was a lot of defensive talent on the board in the early second. A lot of guys who were rated as first rounders (Moehrig/JOK) and two who were rated high second rounders at by far our biggest position of need.  

Well said regarding the OP. 

On one of the podcast (I can't recall) they did research and only found one player that ever had as many injuries as Dickerson has had and a successful NFL career. That's it, just one. So odds of him staying healthy and being a productive player for a long time isn't very good. You never know what might happen, but with that pick, there was also an opportunity to balance needs and BPA. I don't get the whole, building long term argument, as the defense probably needs more help than the offense at this point. Taking one of the LBs or CBs would be building for the long term. They could have chosen a player that could contribute immediately and be a solid player for years to come. 

[UK_EaglesFan89]

9 hours ago, ManchesterEagle said:

Agreed completely.

I was so excited when the pick was coming up - so many talented defensive players still on the board. Guess Howie didn't want to keep us happy for too long after the great work with the Smith pick.

Yeah me too bud. I almost couldn't believe how well the board had fallen for us in the second round. And look Dickerson probably was the best player on the board in terms of talent but you can't ignore the injuries.

[Portyansky]

Unfortunately with so many holes, you could only patch so many. Dickerson pick was a gamble and imo opinion the possible reward far outweighs the risk. 

It's not like we didn't draft and defense. Pretty sure just about every player we selected (except Dickerson 3 spots) was rated higher than where we took them.

[weko]

I watched Howie's press conference after the draft on PE dot com, our old home.  I was stuck by his comments.  How excited they were to have him in the building. Just his leadership.  Espn ran a piece about how he organized workouts at his apartment for the team.  Gave everyone a time slot, wiped down the equipment. Getting excited about this would be about the same as getting excited if he organized and threw dinner parties for the team.  They talk like he's going to be dating their daughters or moving into their neighborhoods, joining their clubs. There's almost a star stuck tone to it.  He's a football player, an employee of theirs.  Injuries have knocked him out of 4 out of 5 seasons and Howie goes on about the doctors clearing him.  If they didn't they wouldn't be working for the team much longer.  As bad as his injury history is, there seems to be a wishful group think about it, an emperor's new clothes way of thinking, like they never happened, have no impact.  I don't mind taking a chance on this guy but with the 37th pick in the draft?  With our D are thin as it is?  Good point expressed about the dearth of draft picks on the D.  Character is just one component in an evaluation.  I don't know how this kid is going to make it through one 17 season with 3 pre season games and if we ever get good again with him still here, more playoff games.  That's 20 games and this kid can't finish a season in college.  We'll have to hold our breathe and see...but you can be sure the D is going to be a sieve vs the pass all year.  It's gonna be ugly when the other team has the ball.  They made some decent picks rounds 3-6.  Hopefully some can make contributions quick.

[birdman#12]

It always makes me laugh when I hear that phrase "you don't draft for need".........what f------ team doesn't draft for need?  Does anybody think the jags, bengals, jets, detroit, bears, pats or anybody else in the first round didn't have a need for who they selected?

The problem with that statement is that it's incomplete. 

You don't draft for need IF:

-you're reaching for a player by taking him way too early for his draft slot.

-you draft a player who plays a certain position but is not good scheme fit based on current coaches.

Drafting players has to include not only need, but the priority of those needs, what's available, where in a round you select  among other things.  One of those things is whether taking a player like dickerson with his injury history is less risk than taking a DB like Samuel, Joseph, Grant or Moehrig.  If the eagles had any of those DB rated late 2nd round or early 3rd, then taking dickerson there made sense to them. 

Roseman, I believe, views the draft as just one of 4 opportunities to fill needs.  One being free agency, 2 is the draft, 3 is june 1 cuts and preseason cuts and 4th is trades.  I think he views the draft more of a long term pipeline and doesn't let immediate need influence him after the 1st round.

 

[UK_EaglesFan89]

7 hours ago, birdman#12 said:

The problem with that statement is that it's incomplete. 

You don't draft for need IF:

You're absolutely right. You don't reach for players but you draft because you have a need there. 

I mean if a team have a franchise QB and then the best player on the board is a QB do they take that QB? Unlikely. 

[ManchesterEagle]

10 hours ago, weko said:

I watched Howie's press conference after the draft on PE dot com, our old home.  I was stuck by his comments.  How excited they were to have him in the building. Just his leadership.  Espn ran a piece about how he organized workouts at his apartment for the team.  Gave everyone a time slot, wiped down the equipment. Getting excited about this would be about the same as getting excited if he organized and threw dinner parties for the team.  They talk like he's going to be dating their daughters or moving into their neighborhoods, joining their clubs. There's almost a star stuck tone to it.  He's a football player, an employee of theirs.  Injuries have knocked him out of 4 out of 5 seasons and Howie goes on about the doctors clearing him.  If they didn't they wouldn't be working for the team much longer.  As bad as his injury history is, there seems to be a wishful group think about it, an emperor's new clothes way of thinking, like they never happened, have no impact.  I don't mind taking a chance on this guy but with the 37th pick in the draft?  With our D are thin as it is?  Good point expressed about the dearth of draft picks on the D.  Character is just one component in an evaluation.  I don't know how this kid is going to make it through one 17 season with 3 pre season games and if we ever get good again with him still here, more playoff games.  That's 20 games and this kid can't finish a season in college.  We'll have to hold our breathe and see...but you can be sure the D is going to be a sieve vs the pass all year.  It's gonna be ugly when the other team has the ball.  They made some decent picks rounds 3-6.  Hopefully some can make contributions quick.

 

9 hours ago, birdman#12 said:

It always makes me laugh when I hear that phrase "you don't draft for need".........what f------ team doesn't draft for need?  Does anybody think the jags, bengals, jets, detroit, bears, pats or anybody else in the first round didn't have a need for who they selected?

The problem with that statement is that it's incomplete. 

You don't draft for need IF:

-you're reaching for a player by taking him way too early for his draft slot.

-you draft a player who plays a certain position but is not good scheme fit based on current coaches.

Drafting players has to include not only need, but the priority of those needs, what's available, where in a round you select  among other things.  One of those things is whether taking a player like dickerson with his injury history is less risk than taking a DB like Samuel, Joseph, Grant or Moehrig.  If the eagles had any of those DB rated late 2nd round or early 3rd, then taking dickerson there made sense to them. 

Roseman, I believe, views the draft as just one of 4 opportunities to fill needs.  One being free agency, 2 is the draft, 3 is june 1 cuts and preseason cuts and 4th is trades.  I think he views the draft more of a long term pipeline and doesn't let immediate need influence him after the 1st round.

 

What I find hard to believe is that the Eagles had low second round/early third round grades on all of Samuel, Joseph, Grant or Moehrig. When most draft experts had them ranked above Dickerson (mostly because of his injuries). The Eagles O-Line is potentially elite, but the main issue last year was injuries. So to solve that issue, the Eagles take a player who has only finished one of the last five years without a season ending injury? And you combine that with the fact there were lots of highly ranked defensive players available. Just seems absolutely crazy to me. I'm sure Dickerson is a great guy and is potentially great when healthy. But chances are he won't be. 

Heck even take Barramore or JOK. There is so little young talent on the D it's crazy. Yes I agree you can stock up in free agency/with trades. But you need to combine that with young talent and the D has nearly none.

Sure there were some "good value" late rounders on D. But after the third round, the chance of hitting on a pro bowler or even a good starter is pretty low. 

 

 

[SB52]

You don’t think the defense is good enough to win a Super Bowl this year, huh?

The draft isn’t about filling needs. It’s about getting the best player.

[Cheesteakitis]

Howie is the only one that gets the D around here!

[ManchesterEagle]

13 hours ago, SB52 said:

You don’t think the defense is good enough to win a Super Bowl this year, huh?

The draft isn’t about filling needs. It’s about getting the best player.

Actually the defense might be okay this year. But look at our best players - Fletcher Cox, Brandon Graham, Darius Slay, Rodney McLeod. They are all over 30. So what happens when they retire, decline or move on. Where's the young talent on D?

The draft is both about filling needs and getting the best player. And the defense has been neglected for the past 6 years in the draft which could cause major long term issues for this team.

[jsdarkstar]

Week 1 Eagles at Falcons.

I expect Julio, Ridley and Pitts, are going to light up our Defense. 

[Guest]

On 5/10/2021 at 3:51 PM, Next_Up said:

A healthy player can get an injury/issue that changes their career trajectory— buck, Andrews, etc. all players get injuries. Dickerson is a freakish athlete, great attitude and medicine is better than ever. This is the birds getting the metcalf pick right. I want mailata and Dickerson to steamroll in the run game. 

While I agree with  your overall statement, the bolded portion does not seem to apply to the Eagles the last 4 years.

[Madriver]

I can only assume that Howie and company are completely writing off the defense this year by picking a hobbled o-lineman. This feels so much like the 26 year old fireman...

[jsdarkstar]

Just now, Madriver said:

I can only assume that Howie and company are completely writing off the defense this year by picking a hobbled o-lineman. This feels so much like the 26 year old fireman...

Trust the Process. LOL. That's the plan.

[Next_Up]

2 hours ago, downundermike said:

While I agree with  your overall statement, the bolded portion does not seem to apply to the Eagles the last 4 years.

I would differentiate the Eagles medical staff, training staff and most importantly the coaches off season training protocols. All the soft tissue injuries speak make me think that the players aren't doing the off or preseason correctly. Doug was pretty old school in this regard, I think. I would swap out this one aspect of Dip Kelly and bring it back into the fold. Modern medicine is probably what masked a lot of the organizational ineptitude. IMO.

[Mike030270]

3 hours ago, jsdarkstar said:

Week 1 Eagles at Falcons.

I expect Julio, Ridley and Pitts, are going to light up our Defense. 

I don’t think Hurts can win a shootout with them but it would be great if he proves me wrong

[ManchesterEagle]

4 hours ago, jsdarkstar said:

Week 1 Eagles at Falcons.

I expect Julio, Ridley and Pitts, are going to light up our Defense. 

 

35 minutes ago, Mike030270 said:

I don’t think Hurts can win a shootout with them but it would be great if he proves me wrong

There is a route where the D isn't a disaster this year. We need to get another competent corner in free agency somehow. If we do, then Slay can cover one of Jones or Ridley and the new free agent corner can cover the other with help over the top. I guess Wilson on Pitts? Not sure we have anybody who can cover him, but maybe him and Ryan don't have their timing down yet and the D-Line can get some pressure on Matty Ice.

[SB52]

4 hours ago, jsdarkstar said:

Week 1 Eagles at Falcons.

I expect Julio, Ridley and Pitts, are going to light up our Defense. 

With a new defensive coordinator 40 is a possibility.