2022 Midterms

[JohnSnowsHair]

Didn't see much on this. 

Fetterman Raises $2.5 Million in Q2

[VanHammersly]

Hershel's jumped into the Senate race down here and he's gonna run away with thi...oh...oh, no...

Some Republicans were alarmed by a recent Associated Press report detailing Walker's past, including that he threatened violence against his ex-wife. Walker has been open about his diagnosis of dissociative identity disorder. Until recently, Walker also lived in Texas and did not have a political operation in Georgia.

https://www.cnn.com/2021/08/24/politics/georgia-senate-race-herschel-walker-fec/index.html

[jsdarkstar]

Dems better show up in the mid terms

I'll be voting for Fetterman or Connor Lamb. Dem winning the PA Senate Race is a Lock.

[Gannan]

37 minutes ago, VanHammersly said:

Hershel's jumped into the Senate race down here and he's gonna run away with thi...oh...oh, no...

Some Republicans were alarmed by a recent Associated Press report detailing Walker's past, including that he threatened violence against his ex-wife. Walker has been open about his diagnosis of dissociative identity disorder. Until recently, Walker also lived in Texas and did not have a political operation in Georgia.

https://www.cnn.com/2021/08/24/politics/georgia-senate-race-herschel-walker-fec/index.html

That's all we need. Another legitimately crazy person in the Senate. This one with CTE. 

[DaEagles4Life]

Not a good sign to start the next cycle. A California dem needing a President to campaign for him

 

 

 

[DEagle7]

On 7/9/2021 at 10:12 AM, JohnSnowsHair said:

Didn't see much on this. 

Fetterman Raises $2.5 Million in Q2

I love Fetterman for the sole fact that his growing popularity shows that people are less willing to call someone out as a socialist if they look like a shaved yeti. 

[HazletonEagle]

29 minutes ago, DaEagles4Life said:

Not a good sign to start the next cycle. A California dem needing a President to campaign for him

 

 

 

I've been interested in that race.  Not due to political interest,  but I began watching Meet Kevin videos back at the beginning of the pandemic.

That Kevin Pafraff dude caught lightning in the bottle.  Was originally a channel that talked about finance and real estate and with the daily covid press conferences he began making videos that quickly would run down all the news. 

He then would make more videos about any progress on stimulus deal negotiations. 

His views and subscribers skyrocketed. And he was like a workaholic putting out sometimes like 3 videos per day. 

Already a self made millionaire,  he began making like 8-900k in a month off this youtube news video boom.

I'm interested to see how far he can go.

I have no idea what a lot of his policy is.  I have no idea if his ideas cash realistically work within the confines of the constitution, state, and local law.  But I do believe he is a genuine guy who wants to make CA a better place to be.  And while he figured out from a young age how to make a quick buck,  I don't think he financially motivated here. He could have had it really easy doing what he was doing and making more money than politics will make him. 

Or, he can fall flat on his face in this race and all the news appearances will bring him even more subscribers and youtube views. Maybe that's his plan all along. 

[Dave Moss]

Hard to say how much the redistricting and voter suppression will impact the midterms.

I expect a lot more really nutty folks from the Republican party to get in. I think this year‘s freshman crop of Marjorie Taylor-Greene, Lauren Boebert, Madison Cawthorn, etc. was just a warm-up.  You’ll get some truly crazy folks in 2022 because that’s who the Republican party attracts now. 

I hope that sniveling coward Kevin McCarthy doesn’t become Speaker.  I’m dreading it already.

[mayanh8]

I think the shared expectation is the GOP will win enough House races to take back control of the House, right? That's been the case ever since 2020. It's just an unfavorable set of districts for Dems.

[we_gotta_believe]

14 minutes ago, mayanh8 said:

I think the shared expectation is the GOP will win enough House races to take back control of the House, right? That's been the case ever since 2020. It's just an unfavorable set of districts for Dems.

After blowing the Senate, I've officially stopped underestimating the damage Trump has done to the party and its ability to functionally win any election. 

[Dave Moss]

7 minutes ago, we_gotta_believe said:

After blowing the Senate, I've officially stopped underestimating the damage Trump has done to the party and its ability to functionally win any election. 

The GOP could definitely blow it, but I think the redistricting based on the new census gives them an advantage.

[we_gotta_believe]

Just now, Dave Moss said:

The GOP could definitely blow it, but I think the redistricting based on the new census gives them an advantage.

Gives them enough of an advantage that would normally have been a forgone conclusion but don't be surprised if it's closer than expected now.

[Dave Moss]

13 minutes ago, we_gotta_believe said:

Gives them enough of an advantage that would normally have been a forgone conclusion but don't be surprised if it's closer than expected now.

The best way for the Dems to keep control is for them to push through moderates in the primaries because the GOP will put up a lot of crazy people.

[we_gotta_believe]

1 minute ago, Dave Moss said:

The best way for the Dems to keep control is for them to push through moderates in the primaries because the GOP will put up a lot of crazy people.

Naturally they won't though. The only party capable of squandering the political capital being freely handed to them are the Dems.

[toolg]

11 hours ago, HazletonEagle said:

I have no idea what a lot of his policy is.  I have no idea if his ideas cash realistically work within the confines of the constitution, state, and local law.  But I do believe he is a genuine guy who wants to make CA a better place to be.  And while he figured out from a young age how to make a quick buck,  I don't think he financially motivated here. He could have had it really easy doing what he was doing and making more money than politics will make him. 

Or, he can fall flat on his face in this race and all the news appearances will bring him even more subscribers and youtube views. Maybe that's his plan all along. 

I never heard of the guy until I saw this article yesterday. He sounds like a decent enough guy. He knows his business, but I don't think he has any business being governor of a state, especially CA:

Sounds like it's a win/win scenario: Use the governor recall race to promote his YouTube and attract more viewers. On the outside chance he actually wins the race, he gets even more viewers. Potential lottery ticket, but with extra viewers as a guaranteed consolation prize.

I don't think Newsom will lose the recall, but voter apathy could be a big concern.

[JohnSnowsHair]

1 hour ago, we_gotta_believe said:

After blowing the Senate, I've officially stopped underestimating the damage Trump has done to the party and its ability to functionally win any election. 

 

44 minutes ago, we_gotta_believe said:

Naturally they won't though. The only party capable of squandering the political capital being freely handed to them are the Dems.

 

[jsdarkstar]

23 minutes ago, toolg said:

I never heard of the guy until I saw this article yesterday. He sounds like a decent enough guy. He knows his business, but I don't think he has any business being governor of a state, especially CA:

Sounds like it's a win/win scenario: Use the governor recall race to promote his YouTube and attract more viewers. On the outside chance he actually wins the race, he gets even more viewers. Potential lottery ticket, but with extra viewers as a guaranteed consolation prize.

I don't think Newsom will lose the recall, but voter apathy could be a big concern.

There is a big homeless problem in L.A. and Newsome is getting the blame by Dems. In CA if they Vote Yes and recall him, the next Candidate with the majority of votes becomes Gov. Each party can select other candidates to get votes. The one with the most becomes Gov. I can't see CA kicking out the Gov and then voting for the Trumper, but freakier things have happened. 

[we_gotta_believe]

4 minutes ago, JohnSnowsHair said:

 

 

Two parties exhaustively trying to out-stupid each other in a race to the bottom. I'm not confident in the Dems to make an easy choice that gives them the best chance to win, but maga has shown the ability to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory just the same. A couple more comments about Jewish space lasers and even AOC v2 could win in some of these redrawn districts.

[toolg]

13 minutes ago, jsdarkstar said:

There is a big homeless problem in L.A. and Newsome is getting the blame by Dems. In CA if they Vote Yes and recall him, the next Candidate with the majority of votes becomes Gov. Each party can select other candidates to get votes. The one with the most becomes Gov. I can't see CA kicking out the Gov and then voting for the Trumper, but freakier things have happened. 

It seems the CA Democrat party has gathered around the "No" vote to recall Newsom. Virtually all of the replacement candidates are Republican. Then there is this Kevin guy...

Here's where I'm confused about the whole recall process: It only takes 12% of the electorate to petition the recall. So they got all those signatures, here we go... Then let's say turnout winds up around 20%-25%, so "Yes" vote to recall Newsom wins 51%-49%. Then there are a whole bunch of Republican candidates in question 2, the top candidate gets maybe 20% of the total vote. So 20% of 25% of the electorate, ie. the candidate who got a total of 5% of the support of the state, becomes governor. If it's 50% turnout, the 20% candidate has 10% of the total possible votes.  Is this logical?

[Phillyterp85]

12 hours ago, DEagle7 said:

I love Fetterman for the sole fact that his growing popularity shows that people are less willing to call someone out as a socialist if they look like a shaved yeti. 

I like Fetterman a lot.  Seems to be a very stand up, good guy.  And that’s an extreme rarity in politics. Don’t agree with him on some (or most?) of his economic policies, but I think he pushes them because he truly believes they are what’s best.  As opposed to being for those policies because he’s a panderer or because he’s in the pocket of some lobby, etc etc etc….

 

[jsdarkstar]

14 minutes ago, toolg said:

It seems the CA Democrat party has gathered around the "No" vote to recall Newsom. Virtually all of the replacement candidates are Republican. Then there is this Kevin guy...

Here's where I'm confused about the whole recall process: It only takes 12% of the electorate to petition the recall. So they got all those signatures, here we go... Then let's say turnout winds up around 20%-25%, so "Yes" vote to recall Newsom wins 51%-49%. Then there are a whole bunch of Republican candidates in question 2, the top candidate gets maybe 20% of the total vote. So 20% of 25% of the electorate, ie. the candidate who got a total of 5% of the support of the state, becomes governor. If it's 50% turnout, the 20% candidate has 10% of the total possible votes.  Is this logical?

Yeah, it's confusing. I hope the republican recall is defeated.

[vikas83]

1 hour ago, toolg said:

It seems the CA Democrat party has gathered around the "No" vote to recall Newsom. Virtually all of the replacement candidates are Republican. Then there is this Kevin guy...

Here's where I'm confused about the whole recall process: It only takes 12% of the electorate to petition the recall. So they got all those signatures, here we go... Then let's say turnout winds up around 20%-25%, so "Yes" vote to recall Newsom wins 51%-49%. Then there are a whole bunch of Republican candidates in question 2, the top candidate gets maybe 20% of the total vote. So 20% of 25% of the electorate, ie. the candidate who got a total of 5% of the support of the state, becomes governor. If it's 50% turnout, the 20% candidate has 10% of the total possible votes.  Is this logical?

Not even a little bit, but it's how it works. 

I'm a Republican, and I realize this is the only way to ever get a GOP Governor in CA. But I am still against the recall (and all recalls) -- politicians should serve out their terms unless impeached for good reason by the legislature. Said another way -- voters should have to live with the consequences of their decisions. 

However, the Democrats are truly idiots for not putting a viable candidate up just in case. If we get Governor Elder, they have no one to blame but themselves.

[JohnSnowsHair]

1 hour ago, we_gotta_believe said:

Two parties exhaustively trying to out-stupid each other in a race to the bottom. I'm not confident in the Dems to make an easy choice that gives them the best chance to win, but maga has shown the ability to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory just the same. A couple more comments about Jewish space lasers and even AOC v2 could win in some of these redrawn districts.

I was more specifically reading this: The only party capable of squandering the political capital being freely handed to them are the Dems.

I think it's quite clear that Republicans are pretty competitive in this regard now. 

[toolg]

16 minutes ago, vikas83 said:

Not even a little bit, but it's how it works. 

I'm a Republican, and I realize this is the only way to ever get a GOP Governor in CA. But I am still against the recall (and all recalls) -- politicians should serve out their terms unless impeached for good reason by the legislature. Said another way -- voters should have to live with the consequences of their decisions. 

However, the Democrats are truly idiots for not putting a viable candidate up just in case. If we get Governor Elder, they have no one to blame but themselves.

The 12% to trigger the recall seems extraordinarily low. Then the whole process itself is confusing. Question #1? Question #2? With impeachment you have to get a majority of representatives to agree, which seems such a higher threshold. With recall, you only need a significant minority.

And Democrats could easily put up Lt. Governor as a candidate, for Plan B if Newsom is recalled. It's as if they lose Question #1 they are conceding, to live with a lameduck GOP governor until 2022. Someone they will beat on in the General Election. Gov. Elder won't get anything done with a majority-Democrat legislature.

[SPIDER-MAN]

14 hours ago, DEagle7 said:

I love Fetterman for the sole fact that his growing popularity shows that people are less willing to call someone out as a socialist if they look like a shaved yeti. 

This incident will be used A LOT by his opponent.

https://www.inquirer.com/politics/election/john-fetterman-2013-braddock-shotgun-incident-20210209.html