Looks like striking down Roe has the potential to be a yuuuuuge winner for Dems this year. 

People aren’t happy with the Dems and Biden, but they also don’t like having their rights taken away.  

Hold on to your butts!

Free Burial Plots could be a winner for Republicans and their older voters:

Red wave, huh?  😂

3 hours ago, mayanh8 said:

Looks like striking down Roe has the potential to be a yuuuuuge winner for Dems this year. 

Certainly it will have an impact but how much.  Hard to say if the results from a specific referendum abort abortion rights translates to general voter turnout in normal office voting.

5 hours ago, DrPhilly said:

Certainly it will have an impact but how much.  Hard to say if the results from a specific referendum abort abortion rights translates to general voter turnout in normal office voting.

Democrats are going to try to make the midterm elections about abortion, while Republicans are going to try to make it about gas prices.

8 hours ago, mayanh8 said:

Hold on to your butts!

Largest turnout advantage ever? Would not have expected that for midterm primary with a dem in the white house, especially considering the circumstances, but Cohn knows this ish more than anyone.

I'd be careful with trying to project anything from this referendum vote though. It's one thing to vote specifically for an issue that we know the polling is in favor of position held by the Democrats. It's quite another when it comes down to specific candidates with broader platforms ( or culture war rhetoric in place of a real policy platform )

Just now, JohnSnowsHair said:

I'd be careful with trying to project anything from this referendum vote though. It's one thing to vote specifically for an issue that we know the polling is in favor of position held by the Democrats. It's quite another when it comes down to specific candidates with broader platforms ( or culture war rhetoric in place of a real policy platform )

Question: was this the only thing on the ballot? Ours here was a primary to see who would run in November, but I assumed this was the same for Kansas.

6 minutes ago, we_gotta_believe said:

Question: was this the only thing on the ballot? Ours here was a primary to see who would run in November, but I assumed this was the same for Kansas.

There were other races, but my understanding is that there was no major Democratic candidate on the ballot that would have been a draw otherwise. Kansas has a gubernatorial race this year, but the incumbent is a Democrat.

So under normal circumstances, the expectation would be a fairly significant Republican turnout, and muted Democratic turnout. The only real draw for Democrats outside of the hardcore vote every election type was this referendum on abortion.

Edit: let me correct myself. There is a senate race, however I don't think most people give the Democrats much of a chance though. Maybe now who knows.

3 hours ago, Dave Moss said:

Democrats are going to try to make the midterm elections about abortion, while Republicans are going to try to make it about gas prices.

Yeah.  I think there will be some mileage in the abortion issue but I'm not so sure it will be enough to hold either the House or Senate.

3 hours ago, JohnSnowsHair said:

I'd be careful with trying to project anything from this referendum vote though. It's one thing to vote specifically for an issue that we know the polling is in favor of position held by the Democrats. It's quite another when it comes down to specific candidates with broader platforms ( or culture war rhetoric in place of a real policy platform )

I posted pretty much the same.  We are in total agreement here.

Over/under on how many of these elections will be called "fixed"?

6 minutes ago, Boogyman said:

Over/under on how many of these elections will be called "fixed"?

every single one that a repug loses.  hell, some of them are even claiming the primaries they lost against other repugs are "fixed".     

4 minutes ago, mr_hunt said:

every single one that a repug loses.  hell, some of them are even claiming the primaries they lost against other repugs are "fixed".     

Yeah, Kari Lake in Arizona pulled a Trump - said the primary was rigged and then she won.

 

10 hours ago, DrPhilly said:

Certainly it will have an impact but how much.  Hard to say if the results from a specific referendum abort abortion rights translates to general voter turnout in normal office voting.

Does this finally get out the young vote because nothing else does for mid terms

10 minutes ago, Dave Moss said:

Yeah, Kari Lake in Arizona pulled a Trump - said the primary was rigged and then she won.

 

See!  No harm, no foul!

52 minutes ago, DaEagles4Life said:

Does this finally get out the young vote because nothing else does for mid terms

Maybe so

5 hours ago, Dave Moss said:

Yeah, Kari Lake in Arizona pulled a Trump - said the primary was rigged and then she won.

 

Hell they're saying I didn't get a single vote, I'm thinking she's right.

 

11 hours ago, JohnSnowsHair said:

I'd be careful with trying to project anything from this referendum vote though. It's one thing to vote specifically for an issue that we know the polling is in favor of position held by the Democrats. It's quite another when it comes down to specific candidates with broader platforms ( or culture war rhetoric in place of a real policy platform )

I actually think it projects very well

these idiots pissed off the single most important swing voter group

On 7/21/2022 at 8:41 PM, Dave Moss said:

Our country hasn’t done a good job getting Iraq vets the help they need. 

All vets...us Iraq/Afghanistan vets probably have the most at our disposal compared to the rest (which still isn't enough)

3 hours ago, ToastJenkins said:

I actually think it projects very well

these idiots pissed off the single most important swing voter group

I generally agree. I just don't discount the ability of pols to muddy the water in a general to where a lot of voters will end up at "yeah the right wants to restrict abortion but the left is worse because x"

The problem that Democrats always have is motivating people to vote. When they drive turnout, they win. 

The way I see what happened in KS is abortion banning got young Democrats and female Democrats to get up and go cast a vote. If pushback against a single issue is going to generate Dem turnout numbers in a state like KS then I can only imagine it's going to be at least the same in other, less conservative states.