November 4, 20223 yr 15 minutes ago, VanHammersly said: If only. Whitmer's hot as F. The two MI candidates should decide it in the ring...
November 4, 20223 yr 22 minutes ago, VanHammersly said: If only. Whitmer's hot as F. 🤮 Explains a bit though.
November 4, 20223 yr 10 minutes ago, lynched1 said: 🤮 Explains a bit though. If you're not interested, it's probably just as well Lynched. Chances are she's into guys with a little bit bigger....hands.
November 4, 20223 yr 2 hours ago, VanHammersly said: If you're not interested, it's probably just as well Lynched. Chances are she's into guys with a little bit bigger....hands. Like yours? 🤣🤣🤣
November 5, 20223 yr 4 hours ago, VanHammersly said: If only. Whitmer's hot as F. You have low standards but i guess you have to take what you can get
November 5, 20223 yr 2 hours ago, ToastJenkins said: You have low standards but i guess you have to take what you can get She scares me and I like it.
November 5, 20223 yr 4 hours ago, lynched1 said: Like yours? 🤣🤣🤣 I have enormous hands. It’s a burden.
November 5, 20223 yr 3 hours ago, VanHammersly said: I have enormous hands. It’s a burden. I could see it might be an impediment for someone into fisting. Not judging. To each their own.
November 5, 20223 yr On 11/2/2022 at 4:40 PM, The_Omega said: You can tell how confident the Democrats feel about the midterms by the fact that a month ago they started blaming Republicans for the economic downturn that every economist has been saying is coming next year for many months now. It is refreshing watching every GOP ding dong who voted against bills, now tout them as their doing. "Look at what I did for our state!" They can count on folks like you to believe it.
November 5, 20223 yr Quote Who Aggregates the Aggregators? Is that headline a reference to an episode of Star Trek: The Next Generation? Why yes, yes it is. We are getting very close to D-Day (or, maybe, E-Day). Every reader knows that, in the races that will determine control of the Senate, the polls are kinda all over the place. But what about the folks who are aggregating the polls? In theory, if you incorporate a whole bunch of polls into your prediction, you eliminate the fluctuations that might come out of a wonky sample for one poll, or a polling house that uses an... unusual model of the electorate. So, let's take a look. Our map above has 12 races that are not either strongly Democratic or strongly Republican. Let's toss in Utah, to give us lucky number 13. That will pretty much give us every Senate seat that might conceivably still be "in play." Besides ourselves, we are aware of three sites, namely FiveThirtyEight, RealClearPolitics, and RacetotheWH, that aggregate Senate polls. Here's how the four of us see things: State Electoral-Vote FiveThirtyEight RealClearPolitics RacetotheWH Arizona Mark Kelly +1% Kelly +2.3% Kelly +2% Kelly +2.5% Colorado Michael Bennet +8% Bennet +9.7% Bennet +5.3% Bennet +9.6% Florida Marco Rubio +6% Rubio +7.1% Rubio +7.5% Rubio +8.1% Georgia Raphael Warnock +1% Tied Herschel Walker +0.5% Warnock +1.5% Iowa Chuck Grassley +8% Grassley +7.2% Grassley +7.3% Grassley +10.8% Nevada Tied Adam Laxalt +0.6% Laxalt +1.9% Laxalt +0.5% New Hampshire Tied Maggie Hassan +2.9% Dan Bolduc +0.3% Hassan +5.4% North Carolina Ted Budd +2% Budd +3.1% Budd +5.0% Budd +4.6% Ohio Tim Ryan +2% J.D. Vance +2.7% Vance +3.3% Vance +4.4% Pennsylvania John Fetterman +1% Fetterman +0.3% Mehmet Oz +0.3% Fetterman +1.3% Utah Mike Lee +10% Lee +9.8% Lee +9% Lee +10.6% Washington Patty Murray +4% Murray +6.1% Murray +3.0% Murray +7.3% Wisconsin Ron Johnson +3% Johnson +3.8% Johnson +3.2% Johnson +5.8% Net Result 50 D, 48 R, 2 ties 50 R, 49 D, 1 tie 53 R, 47 D 50 D, 50 R As it turns out, aggregation has its limits, since—as with the polls themselves—there are a lot of choices being made. For example, we use a fairly simple mathematical model in which we average recent, reliable polls. FiveThirtyEight uses a much more complicated model that weights polls, and considers past electoral history, and requires a Ph.D. in math to fully understand. RacetotheWH uses an approach that's more complex than ours, but less complex than FiveThirtyEight's, weighing polls based on sample size, recency and the pollster's past performance. RealClearPolitics just averages all the polls in their database, which means that, say, outlier polls from March are still influencing their predictions. Also important is which polls are included. RealClearPolitics is well known for welcoming every Republican-leaning house, no matter how poor their methods are, while (apparently arbitrarily) excluding some polls whose results are favorable to Democrats. As you can see here, they are living up to that reputation this cycle. FiveThirtyEight and RacetotheWH tend to be pretty inclusive, relying on their algorithms to minimize the impact of dubious polling houses. We're actually the most picky of the four; we don't include polls from partisan houses at all (unless one house from each side participates), and we also reject polls from pollsters with poor track records. In the end, assuming the polls are reasonably on-target (and, thus, that the aggregators are reasonably on-target), it looks like control of the Senate will come down to five seats: Georgia, Nevada, New Hampshire, Ohio and Pennsylvania. Despite the differences between the aggregators, we all agree on eight of the 13 "in play" seats, and in most cases don't have them as being particularly close. If each of those five races proves to be a coin flip, then control of the Senate will come down to that fifth coin flip. However, the results in close races tend to correlate with each other, so 4-1 (or even 5-0) is more likely than 3-2. Further, there is the small matter that the polls might not be on-target. After all, as a study by Vanderbilt University observed, the 2020 polls had the biggest errors in 40 years. Have the pollsters been able to learn from their mistakes? More on that in the next item. (Z)
November 5, 20223 yr I got so 50 minutes ago, jsdarkstar said: Bill Maher says goodbye to Democracy. I got so far behind on Real Time, but it's cool because now I can just binge leading up to the election. Good situation for a political junkie, lol. This segment sounds good.
November 5, 20223 yr 3 hours ago, jsdarkstar said: Bill Maher says goodbye to Democracy. This depressed the ish out of me.
November 5, 20223 yr 57 minutes ago, Gannan said: This depressed the ish out of me. This should cheer you guys up!
November 5, 20223 yr Author Dismissing the actual answer - that hand counters sorted them into batches for Trump and Biden - doesn't make the claim accurate. There were batches that were 100% Trump as well. When low IQ morons like kz and the twits he shares look at a process they don't understand and apply perverted political motivations - mainly projecting the things THEY would do if they weren't so stupid and lazy - they immediately see malfeasance (that's wrongdoing for you kz types who don't read so good).
November 5, 20223 yr Not the first time I've read about this type of stunt Police in Colorado said they arrested a man on suspicion of tampering with voting equipment after he reportedly inserted a USB flash drive into the voting machine during the state’s primary election in June.
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