November 7, 20223 yr 1 hour ago, lynched1 said: I thought this was real until I saw the name "Cavalier Johnson."
November 7, 20223 yr Author 5 hours ago, lynched1 said: So.. Republican gets sent unsolicited ballots to try and demonstrate how election fraud can happen, it gets reported and she gets fired .... It's also just a ballot. There's nothing sacred about a ballot. They're filled out by the voter then validated against voter registration upon receipt, and if not validated they don't get counted. This literally just makes Republicans look stupid. Thanks for sharing.
November 7, 20223 yr I don't believe the Shapiro polls. I have seen some very, very large Mastriano lawn signs. No way Shapiro wins.
November 7, 20223 yr repugs are following through on their plan to cheat by getting mail in votes thrown out.
November 7, 20223 yr They could have tried not running mental defectives, but I guess this is a good strategy for them?
November 7, 20223 yr 10 minutes ago, mr_hunt said: repugs are following through on their plan to cheat by getting mail in votes thrown out. Dropped my mail-in ballot yesterday. Made sure to sign and date!
November 7, 20223 yr 3 hours ago, Paul852 said: I don't believe the Shapiro polls. I have seen some very, very large Mastriano lawn signs. No way Shapiro wins. The guy down the street has a Mastriano flag. A flag!
November 7, 20223 yr Quote Last Look at the Senate Races Republican Senate polls have been flooding the zone of late, but they shouldn't be taken seriously. That said, the independent polls show that many of the races are very close. If this is genuinely true, there will probably be a red mirage, as in-person Election Day votes are counted first in most states and early votes and absentee ballots only later. Election Day votes tend to favor Republicans and other votes tend to favor Democrats. However, we still don't know if: (1) there are a substantial number of Trumpists who refuse to talk to the pollsters and (2) pollsters have figured out a way to compensate for this. If not, there could be a red wave. However, if unexpectedly large numbers of women vote entirely based on the Dobbs decision, there could be a blue wave. In short, nobody knows what will happen tomorrow and anybody who says they do is making it up. As a rule of thumb, you can probably assume that any state with a white center in our map above could go either way. If you want to know each party's likely floor, add up the "Strongly Dem" and "Likely Dem" numbers to the right of the map or alternatively the "Likely GOP" and "Strongly GOP" numbers. Right now, the Democrats are likely to have at least 45 Senate seats and the Republicans are likely to have at least 48 seats. However, we don't think Washington is really in play, despite one InsiderAdvantage poll showing Sen. Patty Murray (D-WA) only 2 points ahead, so the Democrats' floor is probably 46. The other six seats with a white center are up for grabs. Also, despite the most recent polls, we think Nevada and Ohio are in play. They are pink due to recent polls from InsiderAdvantage and Emerson College, both of which seem to lean Republican. Whether they got that right or not is something we won't know until Wednesday. So in out view, the real tossups are Nevada, Arizona, Wisconsin, Ohio, Georgia, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and New Hampshire. It's a very murky environment. Here is Politico's final take on the Senate. Keep in mind, however, that Politico tends to put a lot of weight on the most recent poll and since each number in any poll is about ±4 points, that is a bit shaky. Arizona (Toss-up): Sen. Mark Kelly (D-AZ) led all year over Blake Masters (R), but Masters has improved his image and along with it, his poll numbers. Some polls have put Masters' favorability in positive territory lately, but others still have it in negative territory. Keep in mind that historically, sitting senators have a big advantage over any challenger. Colorado (Lean Democratic): Politico cites the recent Trafalgar poll putting Sen. Michael Bennet (D-CO) at +2 over Joe O'Dea (R), but we don't put much stock in Trafalgar's polls. Maybe Politico just wants the race to be more exciting than it really is. We don't think Bennet is in danger. Georgia (Toss-up): Here the Republican polls and the independent polls are very far apart. In four recent polls by Republican firms, Herschel Walker (R) is leading Sen. Raphael Warnock (D-GA) by 4, 3, 5, and 2 points, respectively. But five recent independent polls show, respectively a tie, Warnock +6, Warnock +2, Walker +1, and Warnock +3. However, if both candidates finish below 50%, there will be a runoff on Dec. 6. It is entirely possible that both come in below 50% because there is a third-party candidate on the ballot, even though he has withdrawn and endorsed Walker. Nevada (Toss-up): In three new independent polls this week, Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto (D-NV) is tied or ahead of Adam Laxalt (R). In two Republican polls, Laxalt is ahead by 4 or 5 points. One independent poll also had Laxalt ahead. This one has been a squeaker since the start and could end up in a recount. New Hampshire (Toss-up): Last week, Politico had this one as "lean Democratic" but now it is rated as "toss-up." Don Bolduc (R) has been gaining momentum here and has one special factor going for him: There is no early voting, so Sen. Maggie Hassan (D-NH) does not have any votes banked from the time she was ahead in October. If Bolduc pulls this one off, Democrats are in big trouble on Tuesday. North Carolina (Lean Republican): There has been limited polling here. Democrats keep hoping North Carolina will be the next Virginia, but it never seems to happen. Cheri Beasley (D) is Black but North Carolina doesn't have as many Black voters as Georgia, so that won't do the trick as she tries to knock off Rep. Ted Budd (R). Ohio (Lean Republican): Politico cites an Emerson College poll putting J.D. Vance (R) up 9 points but of the seven nonpartisan polls in October, Tim Ryan (D) has led in three and two were tied. Maybe Vance has momentum, but Emerson has had a strong Republican lean all year. If there is a red wave, Emerson will be cited as the new gold standard, but absent that, it will be seen as simply a failed attempt by a small college to make a name for itself in the polling game. Pennsylvania (Toss-up): Again here, the Republican, Mehmet Oz, is leading in the partisan Republican polls but from the independent pollsters, two of the three recent ones have Lt. Gov. John Fetterman (D-PA) ahead. Based on nine recent nonpartisan polls, we have Fetterman up by one point. Politico really should know enough to take the recent flood of polls from Republicans with a barrel of salt. The big question here is whether the debate changed many votes and that is not known (but see below). Washington (Lean Democratic): Washington shouldn't even be on this list, since Sen. Patty Murray (D-WA) has led Tiffany Smiley (R) by five points or more in 13 nonpartisan polls all year. Now there is one poll by InsiderAdvantage, which may have a Republican lean, showing Murray's lead is only 2 points. A different poll taken Oct. 25-26 has Murray up by 6 points, so Politico is giving one slightly suspect poll a lot of weight. Wisconsin (Toss-up): Sen. Ron Johnson (R-WI) has been leading for a while, but Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes (D-WI) has been moving up in the past week. Most polls have shown Johnson ahead 1-2 points, well within the margin of error, so calling it a toss-up is probably the right call. The bottom line is that we just don't know what will happen. It could go either way. Sorry. But maybe a few more words are called for here. On Friday, we had several items about polling. The other Nate (Cohn) wrote an article about polling on Saturday. He takes the current polls and applies the average polling errors of 2018 and 2020 to the current polls. Short answer, with the 2020 correction, New Hampshire is a tie, the Democrats win Colorado, and the Republicans win all the rest of the big marbles. With the 2018 correction, the Republicans take Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, the Democrats take Arizona, Nevada, and Colorado, while Georgia, New Hampshire, and North Carolina are ties. However, Cohn also talks about something we have talked about recently: the sudden appearance of polls from questionable Republican-oriented organizations and the relative dearth of polls from more established organizations. For example, Quinnipiac University has run only one battleground state poll in all of October (Oct 7-10 in Georgia) and none in November. The result is that aggregators that just add up everything that comes along may be overweighting the partisan Republican pollsters simply because there has been less output from the nonpartisan sector. As an example, Cohn notes, as we do above, that last week four partisan Republicam firms showed Mehmet Oz ahead in Pennsylvania, but this week two nonpartisan pollsters have John Fetterman ahead and one has the two of them tied. His conclusion is that to see what really gives, you have to look under the covers and see who did the polls. We have a simpler solution: Just ignore all the partisan pollsters working for either party. But we do include Emerson College and InsiderAdvantage, which are nonpartisan but do have a strong Republican lean. Maybe they are right. We don't know yet. (V) Latinos Won't Save the GOP Unlike The New York Times (see above), The Washington Post doesn't have a Nate to crunch the numbers. But it does have David Byler, who occupies the same ecological niche as The Other Nate. He just wrote an article that points out that the Republicans can't stop talking about their gains with Latinos. But he also notes that Trump won fewer new Latino voters than Biden won new college-educated white voters. This chart puts the Republicans' gains with Latinos in perspective: Byler crunches the numbers and says if the Republicans merely hold their 2020 gains with Latinos but don't gain with some other major demographic group, they will continue to lose the presidential popular vote. Democrats still have the advantage with Latinos and Asians, which are growing groups, while the Republican base (the white working class) is shrinking. Even if Republicans won half of Latinos, which is a stretch, they would still lose the popular vote by 2 points. And since Latinos are concentrated in the Southwest, they don't put a lot of states other than Arizona (and maybe, but probably not, New Mexico and Nevada) in play. Currently, Latinos make up 15% of all eligible voters. That is expected to grow to 19%, but not until 2036, which is a ways off. So to win the popular vote, Republicans need to increase their vote share among Black voters, Asians, or college-educated whites. Every Republican in the country could campaign in an Abraham Lincoln costume, but that won't budge the Black vote. Attacking China all the time probably won't help with the Chinese-American vote, and college-educated whites are definitely moving in the wrong direction for the GOP. But a party can always hope. (V) Generic Poll Is Nearly Tied A last-minute Washington Post/ABC generic poll shows that 48% of the voters will vote for a Democrat and 50% will vote for a Republican. Among independents, it is 45% for the Democrat 53% for the Republican. That very likely means the Republicans will capture the House. Given the large amount of gerrymandering, the Democrats would need a lead of maybe 5% or more to have a chance. Here are the results of the poll. As you can see, men heavily favor the Republicans. Women heavily favor the Democrats, but not as strongly as the men favor the Republicans. If it were the other way, the Democrats would have a much better chance. But as usual, turnout is everything. Here, the poll says that Republicans have an advantage. Among Republicans, 80% have already voted or say they are certain to do so. Among Democrats it is 74%. The attention gap also favors the Republicans, with 48% following the election closely vs. 37% of Democrats. It's an old story. Democrats, especially young voters, get interested in elections in September of a presidential election year and lose interest by the next February. Republicans are in it for the long haul. Also noteworthy is that 86% of Democrats but only 63% of independents and 55% of Republicans believe the votes will be counted accurately. Nearly all the rest do not believe the votes will be counted accurately. No doubt this relates to the hundreds of Republicans running for office who explicitly or implicitly do not believe the results of the 2020 election (except for those races a Republican won). Joe Biden's approval rating is at 43%, with 53% disapproving. Among Democrats, 82% approve and among Republicans it's only 9%. That is simply a partisan reflex at this point. If someone pinned the Republicans down and asked what exactly has Biden done that they disapprove of, a large number would say something like: "He's a socialist." (V) Fetterman Didn't Blow It at the Debate Several months after having a stroke, Lt. John Fetterman debated Mehmet Oz on television. Fetterman's performance was rocky and many Democrats are worried that it would cost him the election and the Democrats control of the Senate. A new analysis of the polling data by The Washington Post's Aaron Blake (who, like David Byler, is also not named "Nate") suggests that the debate probably didn't alter the fundamentals of the race. Basically, the trustworthy nonpartisan polls haven't changed much since the debate. A post-debate Monmouth University poll has Fetterman ahead 48-44, almost the same as Monmouth's pre-debate poll of 48-43. A Fox post-debate poll has Fetterman up 45-41 vs. 45-42 pre-debate. A Marist College post-debate poll has Fetterman ahead 51-45 vs. 51-44 in September. Emerson College has it as 47-48 now vs. 45-43 in September, but, as noted above, Emerson has a clear Republican lean this cycle. Another aspect to consider is how many voters think the debate mattered, even in a minor way. Fox asked this and it was only 51%. And those who said it mattered were mostly Republicans and were probably not going to vote for Fetterman even if he had wiped the floor with Oz. Just 4% of Democrats and 5% of independents said the debate was the most important factor in deciding their vote. Fox also explicitly asked if Fetterman's health might prevent him from doing his job. About 40% said it would, but that group also skewed very heavily Republican. Seventy percent of 2020 Trump voters thought that, too. Only 9% of Democrats thought that. If a pollster had asked: "Did the color of Fetterman's tie make you more likely or less likely to vote for him, it is guaranteed that an overwhelming majority of Republicans would say "less likely." But the debate isn't the whole show. More independents (40%) are concerned about the fact that Oz lives in New Jersey than are concerned with Fetterman's health (30%). If Oz pulls this off, it will be more a matter of Republicans who didn't vote for Oz in the primary coming home and supporting "their" nominee than anything about Fetterman's health. (V)
November 7, 20223 yr So if the Vote Count isn't completed by 10:00 p.m. tomorrow night, I expect Trump to file Suit alleging Fraud.
November 7, 20223 yr When will the RNC mailers be sent out to registered Dems, with the wrong election dates and wrong polling locations? Typical Republican tactics.
November 7, 20223 yr 19 minutes ago, Gannan said: The guy down the street has a Mastriano flag. A flag! If I wanted to run for office I'd run as Republican and just sell a crap ton of merch.
November 7, 20223 yr I believe that Republicans are using polls as propaganda to say there is a Red Wave coming based on far fringe polls, when in reality the outpouring of mail in ballots and early voting favors Dems 2-1. Republicans have a lot of ground to make up tomorrow. According the NBC Polling Data Dems enthusiasm has increased. https://www.nbcnews.com/meet-the-press/first-read/nbc-news-poll-democrats-catch-gop-enthusiasm-rcna55859
November 7, 20223 yr 9 minutes ago, The_Omega said: Don't forget to vote on Wednesday Democrats! We've already voted 3 times by mail.
November 7, 20223 yr 3 minutes ago, jsdarkstar said: I believe that Republicans are using polls as propaganda to say there is a Red Wave coming based on far fringe polls, when in reality the outpouring of mail in ballots and early voting favors Dems 2-1. Republicans have a lot of ground to make up tomorrow. According the NBC Polling Data Dems enthusiasm has increased. https://www.nbcnews.com/meet-the-press/first-read/nbc-news-poll-democrats-catch-gop-enthusiasm-rcna55859 Why would they do that though? I feel like the best way to play it is to say they're losing by a few points to get people to come out.
November 7, 20223 yr 5 minutes ago, Paul852 said: Why would they do that though? I feel like the best way to play it is to say they're losing by a few points to get people to come out. It's part of the larger argument to allege fraud. We were a head in the polls. Yet we lost so there must be fraud.
November 7, 20223 yr 16 minutes ago, jsdarkstar said: I believe that Republicans are using polls as propaganda to say there is a Red Wave coming based on far fringe polls... When did Joy Reid get an EMB account?
November 7, 20223 yr repugs also prevent the early processing/counting of mail in votes so they can complain when it takes a few days to get them counted & so they can alledge some sort of fraud. https://www.nbcphiladelphia.com/news/politics/decision-2020/mail-in-voting-what-to-know/pa-republican-lawmakers-remain-unwilling-to-allow-early-vote-counting/2567571/ Pa. Republican Lawmakers Remain Unwilling to Allow Early Vote Counting County election officials warn that without early counting of more than 2.6 million mail-in ballots the winner of Pennsylvania in the Nov. 3 presidential election may take days to determine Republican lawmakers in the battleground state of Pennsylvania appeared unwilling Monday to authorize counties to process mail-in ballots before Election Day, seen as crucial to producing a prompt election result. A spokesperson for the House Republican majority said in a statement that they have no plans to consider changes to election laws that will affect the Nov. 3 election. County officials are still pushing for the change and say it could ensure the vast majority of ballots are counted within hours of polls closing. They say that waiting until Election Day to dig into roughly 3 million mail-in ballots could require days to process enough ballots to project a winner in the presidential contest.
November 7, 20223 yr Yep. Setting themselves up for fraud claims if the vote count isn't completed by 10:00 p.m. They aren't really interested in a prompt count. Republican lawmakers in the battleground state of Pennsylvania appeared unwilling Monday to authorize counties to process mail-in ballots before Election Day, seen as crucial to producing a prompt election result.
November 7, 20223 yr It appears that Trump fans didn't show up in Latrobe for Trump en mass. But one thing is clear. Trump wants to be President for Life Just like the King of China. The Constitution be damned. Trump's pity party is something special for Maga nuts.
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