Every excuse the Eagles have given for drafting Jalen Hurts is stupid

[Procus]

I've gone on record as saying that this was as much about denying Dallas its QB of the future and domination of the NFC East as it was about the Eagles.  Mangels doesn't even address that.  But I don't believe in censorship, so here you go.

https://www.bleedinggreennation.com/2020/4/26/21236656/philadelphia-eagles-2020-draft-jalen-hurts-howie-roseman-excuses-quarterback-oklahoma-carson-wentz

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Every excuse the Eagles have given for drafting Jalen Hurts is stupid

Fool’s Gold Standard

By Dave Mangels@Southern_Philly  Apr 26, 2020, 2:47pm EDT

 

 

Photo by Robin Alam/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

The Eagles are trying every excuse they can think of to justify using their 2nd round pick on a quarterback. They’re all stupid.

First let’s take a look at how unusual this situation is. Over the past 20 years, 21 QBs have been drafted in the 2nd round. Teams that have drafted them have usually fit one of two profiles: they have a starter in their mid to late 30s, or their QB depth chart is awful. There’s a third category of drafting an insurance policy behind a QB in his early 30s with injury concerns, but 75% of the time that starting QB was the same person. Nearly a third of the time, the team has had a new coach putting his own mark on the team.

2nd Round QBs 2000-2019

Year	QB	Team	QB#	Other QB(s)	Category	New coach?	Notes
2019	Drew Lock	DEN	4th	34 year old Joe Flacco	Aging vet	Yes
2017	DeShone Kizer	CLE	4th	Kevin Hogan and Cody Kessler	Bad starter	No	3 QBs started the year before
2016	Christian Hackenberg	NYJ	4th	34 year old Ryan Fitzpatrick	Aging vet	No
2014	Derek Carr	OAK	4th	33 year old Matt Schaub	Aging vet	No	3 QBs started the year before
2014	Jimmy Garoppolo	NE	5th	37 year old Tom Brady	Aging vet	No
2013	Geno Smith	NYJ	2nd	35 year old David Garrard, Matt Sims	Everything	No	Garrard retired a month later
2012	Brock Osweiler	DEN	5th	36 year old Peyton Manning	Aging vet	No	Manning had missed previous season
2011	Andy Dalton	CIN	5th	Bruce Gradkowski	Bad starter	No	Previous seasons's starter retired in offseason
2011	Colin Kaepernick	SF	6th	Alex Smith	Bad starter	Yes	Smith's career passer rating was 76.4
2010	Jimmy Clausen	CAR	3rd	Matt Moore	Bad starter	No	Previous season's starter was cut
2009	Pat White	MIA	4th	33 year old Chad Pennington	Insurance	No	Drafted as a wildcat QB
2008	Brian Brohm	GB	3rd	Aaron Rodgers	Insurance	No	Rodgers had yet to start a game
2008	Chad Henne	MIA	4th	32 year old Chad Pennington	Insurance	Yes	Pennington had missed 8 games in 2007
2007	Kevin Kolb	PHI	3rd	31 year old Donovan McNabb	Insurance	No	McNabb missed 13 games previous two seasons
2007	John Beck	MIA	4th	37 year old Trent Green	Aging vet	Yes	3 QBs started the year before
2007	Drew Stanton	DET	5th	35 year old Jon Kitna	Aging vet	No
2006	Kellen Clemens	NYJ	4th	Chad Pennington	Insurance	Yes	Pennington had never started 16 games
2006	Tarvaris Jackson	MIN	5th	38 year old Brad Johnson	Aging vet	Yes	Previous season's starter was traded
2001	Drew Brees	SD	2nd	39 year old Doug Flutie	Aging vet	No	3 QBs started the year before
2001	Quincy Carter	DAL	3rd	Ryan Leaf, Clint Stoerner	Bad starter	No	Previous seasons's starter retired in offseason
2001	Marques Tuiasosopo	OAK	4th	36 year old Rich Gannon	Aging vet	No

The Eagles fit none of these profiles. The only situations that are remotely close here are the 2007 Eagles and 2008 Packers, but those comparisons are thin. Both were controversial picks, but you could at least sort of see where they were coming from.

McNabb had missed 6 and 7 games in each of the previous two seasons, and was coming off an ACL tear. There was deserved controversy when Kolb was selected, but a 31 year old coming off a major injury is a reason to consider drafting a backup.

Rodgers was handed the starting job due to Brett Favre finally leaving, but he had just 59 career attempts. This pick was also controversial and led to Packers GM Ted Thompson having to immediately say that they are fully confident in Rodgers, just like the Eagles did with Wentz. With an unknown as your starter, you can understand the idea of adding an insurance policy. Green Bay then doubled up and took Matt Flynn in the 7th round. It’s worth pointing out that Mike McCarthy, Rodgers’ head coach in 2008 and the 49ers offensive coordinator in 2005, was a reason why the 49ers passed on Rodgers in the 2005 draft.

Value Pick

What is good value for a 2nd round pick? What is good value for a backup quarterback? Your mileage may vary on the exact answers, but there are four outcomes to this selection.

The first is that Jalen Hurts succeeds Carson Wentz as the starting QB, and is good. If that’s the case the Eagles will look kind of brilliant, but also like morons for giving 26 year old Carson Wentz a contract extension and then turning on him a year later. It is not a scenario that fills you with confidence about the organization. This would be great value, but for all the wrong reasons.

The second is that the Eagles get quality backup play of Hurts but without Wentz suffering serious injury, then flip Hurts for draft capital/players. We’ll come back to this.

The third is that Hurts plays enough and well enough for a team to want him, but not enough for a team to trade for him. We’ve seen this before with Tyrod Taylor, but he was a 6th round pick and gave the Ravens no on field value, he had 63 touches in four years. For a 6th rounder that’s great value, for a 2nd not so much. In this scenario the Eagles would get at best a 3rd round comp pick in 2024. While not the worst outcome, as having a quality backup and getting a 3rd round comp pick are both valuable, having your 2nd round pick walk in free agency would be embarrassing.

The fourth is that Jalen Hurts stinks and he is either released or walks in free agency and doesn’t register as a comp pick, and the Eagles get nothing. The worst possible outcome, and considering the bust rate of quarterbacks, also the most likely.

So let’s assume a the second option, which is a best case scenario: nothing serious goes wrong with Carson Wentz, but Hurts has trade value in two or three years. It is unrealistic to expect the Eagles acquire a better pick than they gave up.

Over the past 10 years, quarterbacks have been traded for draft capital 42 times. 32 times they were traded for a 4th round pick or later.

QB For Draft Pick Trades 2010-2020

Year	QB	Pick(s) Received	Originally Acquired	Note
2020	Nick Foles	4th	FA
2020	Kyle Allen	5th	UDFA
2019	Ryan Tannehill	4th & 7th	1st	Also sent a 6th
2019	Case Keenum	6th & 7th	FA
2019	Josh Rosen	2nd & 5th	1st
2019	Josh Dobbs	5th	4th
2019	Joe Flacco	4th	1st
2018	Alex Smith	3rd	2nd	Also recieved Kendall Fuller
2018	Teddy Bridgewater	3rd	FA	Also sent a 6th
2018	Trevor Siemian	5th	7th	Also sent a 7th
2018	DeShone Kizer	4th & 5th	2nd	Also sent a 4th & 5th, received Damarious Randall
2018	AJ McCarron	5th	5th
2018	Brett Hundley	6th	5th
2018	Kevin Hogan	6th	5th	Also sent a 6th
2018	Cody Kessler	7th	3rd
2017	Jimmy Garoppolo	2nd	2nd	In season
2017	Tyrod Taylor	3rd	FA
2017	Brock Osweiler	4th	FA	Also sent a 2nd and 6th
2017	Cardale Jones	7th	4th
2016	Sam Bradford	1st, 4th	2nd & 4th	In season
2016	Matt Cassel	5th	FA	Also sent a 7th
2015	Sam Bradford	2nd & 4th	1st	Also sent a 5th, received Nick Foles
2015	Nick Foles	5th	3rd	Also sent a 2nd & 4th, received Sam Bradford
2015	Ryan Fitzpatrick	6th	FA
2015	Case Keenum	7th	FA
2015	Matt Cassel	6th & 7th	FA
2015	Matt Barkley	7th	4th
2014	Carson Palmer	6th & 7th	1st & 2nd	Also sent a 7th
2014	Ryan Mallet	7th	3rd
2014	Matt Schaub	6th	Two 2nds, swap of 1sts
2014	Blaine Gabbert	6th	1st
2014	Terrelle Pryor	7th	3rd
2013	Alex Smith	2nd	1st
2013	Matt Flynn	5th	FA
2013	Colt McCoy	5th & 7th	3rd	Also sent a 6th
2012	Tarvaris Jackson	7th	FA
2012	Tim Tebow	4th & 6th	1st	Also sent a 7th
2012	Brady Quinn	6th	1st	Also recieved Peyton Hillis
2012	Drew Stanton	6th	FA	Also sent a 7th
2011	Carson Palmer	1st & 2nd	1st	In season
2011	Kevin Kolb	2nd	2nd	Also recieved Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie
2011	Donovan McNabb	6th	2nd & 4th

Let’s focus on the ten that were dealt for at least a 3rd round pick. Seven of the ten trades were for experienced QBs: Carson Palmer, Alex Smith twice, Sam Bradford twice, Teddy Bridgewater, and Tyrod Taylor. All were starters for at least two years.

In just three of 42 trades over the past decade was a QB with fewer than two years of starting experience traded for better than a 4th round pick: Josh Rosen, Jimmy Garoppolo, and Kevin Kolb. Rosen was traded for less value than the pick he was taken for. Garoppolo and Kolb were traded for a pick in the same round they were drafted in, though the Eagles also received DRC for Kolb.

So the best case scenario that doesn’t involve Carson Wentz missing significant time is the Eagles getting a high 2nd round pick, or a later 2nd round and a starter in three or four years. Is that the best use of the 53rd overall pick? Was that the best use of the 53rd overall pick for the 2020 Eagles? Is that reward worth the risk for this team?

The QB Factory

Howie Roseman was deservedly mocked for his "QB factory” comment. It’s the new "gold standard” line that should haunt them for years. This is of course absurd, as the Eagles under Doug Pederson have truly developed one QB: Carson Wentz. Nick Foles was a finished product that they fixed up and they deserve credit for both of those. But Chase Daniel, McLeod-Bethel Thompson, Matt McGloin, Aaron Murray, Joe Callahan, Christian Hackenberg, Louis Perez, Cody Kessler and Clayton Thorson have come and gone for nothing, and it is hard to see them getting anything for Nate Sudfeld.

If you want to add a quality backup QB with the hope of getting draft capital out of him, you don’t have to use draft capital to get him. The Eagles should know this since it’s what they did with Nick Foles. The Eagles gave up nothing nor canceled out a comp pick for signing Foles, then gained a 3rd round comp pick for him. They got the benefit of having a veteran QB rather than a developmental one, got good play out of him (well, great play out of him, but let’s not raise the bar too high), and they got a valuable pick in return. That’s manufacturing, or more accurately refurbishing. There are several QBs available in free agency right now that would be quality backups. (You will see this material again.) You’d have a much higher floor of play if Wentz were to miss time, and potentially essentially buy draft picks.

Cheap contract to spend elsewhere

It’s true that the Eagles save cap space by going with a rookie QB. But they haven’t operated this way for most of the Doug Pederson era, they paid high salaries to their backups while Carson Wentz was on his cheap rookie contract. Chase Daniel got $12M for one year of work, they ate $11M of Sam Bradford’s contract, and paid Nick Foles $15M for two years. Josh McCown’s $2M was actually a fair market value. Now that Wentz is highly paid they apparently want to save money on his backups to invest elsewhere. That would be fine but they haven’t really invested that money. The addition of Marquise Goodwin will count for $4M in 2020, but it is next to impossible to see them keeping him in 2021 when he’s scheduled to make $7M. He is the only veteran they have acquired on offense.

Great Teammate

In a not so subtle shot at the anonymous sources who have said mean things about Carson Wentz—who they are trying to protect by using a 2nd rounder on his backup and creating a media focal point—the Eagles went out of their way to talk about what a great guy Jalen Hurts is. I’m sure he is. I have no ill will towards Hurts, this isn’t about him as a person or player. I’m glad the Eagles drafted a high character guy instead of someone who might assault a cabana boy. It feels nice to root for good guys. But "we wanted to get him a friend” is something you say about adopting another pet, not drafting a player.

COVID-19

This one is just pathetic. It’s sad really. In an incredible display of not having a BS filter, Adam Schefter actually went on national TV and said this:

Now in this day and age, I’ve had teams tell me it’s more important than ever to have a backup quarterback in this pandemic. We’re going to be playing next year, coronavirus is out there, COVID-19, what if your quarterback gets the virus? It’s an interesting situation here. I think there are more problems than ever before. And so I think teams are looking up to sure up the most important position in the sport. And that’s why the Eagles did it.

"What if your quarterback gets the virus?” What if your quarterback gets the virus.

I can not imagine the stupidity it takes to come up with a scenario in your galaxy brain that Carson Wentz gets Coronavirus but nobody else on the team does. The entire reason you can’t eat in a restaurant right now is that simply being in a room while having the virus puts everyone in the room at high risk of contracting the virus. If Carson Wentz has it then there’s a really good chance that Jalen Hurts has it too. That QB room ain’t in open air.

And it ignores that the NBA came to a screeching halt when one player tested positive, and then we found out that several players he either played with or against also got it. The NFL would have to be Brian Kemp level of tone deaf to keep playing if this happened, and the NFLPA would have to be injecting bleach into their bodies level of dumb to allow it to happen. We’re not even confident that there will be a season, or when it will start.

Speaking of Coronavirus, I wrote this in a piece about why the Eagles would be wasting a day three pick on a QB, but it applies to a second rounder as well:

The COVID-19 pandemic adds another layer to this. This is not an ideal offseason to draft a developmental QB. These QBs need hands on coaching, a ton of practice reps, hours and hours of film study with coaches, and other things that aren’t going to happen this summer. We can not even be sure at this time when the season will begin. It’s a bad environment to bring a late round QB into.

If you’re truly weighing how the pandemic will or could affect your QB situation, wouldn’t you be better off signing a guy with experience to take over if necessary?

Taysom Hill

If not for Adam Schefter’s pandemic concerns, this would be the most pathetic reason. Taysom Hill was an undrafted free agent who wasn’t even originally signed by the Saints, he started with the Packers so the Saints were able to let another team spend time and effort figuring out if Hill was worth even a practice squad roster spot. The Saints stashed him on the roster for a year before using him as a utility player of questionable value. Every time he throws the ball is a time when Drew freaking Brees doesn’t. Because of that they’ve only let him throw 13 times, he has a 46.6 passer rating. Last season he averaged 15 snaps a game, and his playing time decreased when Brees was injured, he played 17 snaps per game when Brees was healthy, 12 per game when he was hurt. The guy at the top of Taysom Hill’s positional depth chart missed nearly six games and he ended the season 17th in offensive snaps. The Saints third string center played more than Taysom Hill did. Hill was the Saints #3 QB last season and the Saints are so confident in his abilities as a backup quarterback that they just signed Jameis Winston to be the #2. Hey look at that, a team trying to win a Super Bowl and with an injury concern at QB signed a veteran to be the backup. Apparently that’s an option.

These excuses that the Eagles have either peddled out themselves or got water carrying media members to repeat aren’t just weak, they’re insultingly stupid.

 

[UK_EaglesFan89]

Aside from the fact that Hurts looks to be a promising young QB with the raw tools to be a good NFL player there's no good reason. There is no good excuse.

It's a dumb move, it is a wasted pick and the only way it's not a waste is if Wentz calls it a day and then we have serious problems so we need to hope that doesn't happen. 

Howie can try to justify this pick but there's no real good reason for it. It's a dumb pick for a lot of reasons. 

[PoconoDon]

I would not have drafted him but they did so, what positives could reasonably come from it?

 

1. He develops into a genuine starting caliber QB over the next year or two and provides:

    a) A backup capable of winning in any game if Carson goes down. Good pick in that case.

    b) A valuable trade asset that will garner significantly more than the #53 pick used on him (if Carson stays healthy.)

    c) (Least likely) Carson's eventual replacement.

2. He develops into an average backup with gimmick ability (Taysom Hill). A little bit of positive but not worth #53 overall. 4th-6th round ROI.

3. He becomes the most valuable 3rd string QB and clipboard holder in the NFL. Not a total bust but just a 7th round ROI.

 

That's all I can see. Anyone else?

[bobbyuk]

How about this—

The Eagles will never admit it of course, but maybe, just maybe, they’ve lost confidence in Wentz’s ability to stay injury free for a year. They thought by extending him, he’d finally see the light and play more cautiously, but then he got injured against the Seahawks. So they saw an opportunity for cheap insurance and they took it. They saw a young QB prospect who’s got great mobility, and good arm and decided to take him.

I’ve seen the rumours that they took him to keep him from the Cowboys, who apparently were allegedly eyeing him because of their Prescott situation. 

Ever since he got injured in his rookie year, when Pederson told him he had to slide, get out of bounds or throw the ball away, he hasn’t listened. 
 

The other thing no one can discount is—what if he gets injured again and decides to retire like Andrew Luck instead of having to constantly rehab? That cannot be dismissed. Look what happened to the Colts—they had to make Brissett an emergency starter.

[Uscg-green]

1 hour ago, bobbyuk said:

They thought by extending him, he’d finally see the light and play more cautiously, but then he got injured against the Seahawks.

Uh he got cheap shotted with a spear to the head. That isn't playing reckless, that was catching a cheap shot from a dirty player.

[EricAllenPick6]

13 hours ago, Uscg-green said:

Uh he got cheap shotted with a spear to the head. That isn't playing reckless, that was catching a cheap shot from a dirty player.

Yeah, but it's just another injury for Wentz and they keep piling up.  Some guys just have that kind of luck.  It's not unrealistic to think Wentz will have a short career because he just gets hurt a lot.  

16 hours ago, PoconoDon said:

1. He develops into a genuine starting caliber QB over the next year or two and provides:

    a) A backup capable of winning in any game if Carson goes down. Good pick in that case.

I'll add to that.  He provides stability to one of the positions that we already know is important to the Eagles FO.  There will be no more revolving door at backup QB.  Were you really excited about the idea of having Joe Flacco being he backup QB next year?

[UK_EaglesFan89]

9 minutes ago, EricAllenPick6 said:

Some guys just have that kind of luck.  It's not unrealistic to think Wentz will have a short career because he just gets hurt a lot.  

Its not no but then it again begs the question. Why give him such a big contract? They can't have changed their mind because of a nasty dirty hit in the play off game? Having just played a full 16 game season. 

[Procus]

32 minutes ago, UK_EaglesFan89 said:

Its not no but then it again begs the question. Why give him such a big contract? They can't have changed their mind because of a nasty dirty hit in the play off game? Having just played a full 16 game season. 

If I were under lockdown (I'm not, I have relative freedom of movement although most "non-essential" shops are still closed), I would try to embrace negativity.  Seriously.

[UK_EaglesFan89]

2 minutes ago, Procus said:

If I were under lockdown (I'm not, I have relative freedom of movement although most "non-essential" shops are still closed), I would try to embrace negativity.  Seriously.

Embrace negativity? Why?

[Uscg-green]

Article was spot on. Howie should be embarrassed. 

[Perforator]

1 hour ago, Uscg-green said:

Article was spot on. Howie should be embarrassed. 

It makes you wonder. Are Andy and Doug so castrated that Howie just does what he wants or, the scary version, they both agreed with him.

 

[Uscg-green]

1 minute ago, Perforator said:

It makes you wonder. Are Andy and Doug so castrated that Howie just does what he wants or, the scary version, they both agreed with him.

 

In the press conference Doug didn't look thrilled.

[Madriver]

On 4/26/2020 at 4:05 PM, UK_EaglesFan89 said:

Aside from the fact that Hurts looks to be a promising young QB with the raw tools to be a good NFL player there's no good reason. There is no good excuse.

It's a dumb move, it is a wasted pick and the only way it's not a waste is if Wentz calls it a day and then we have serious problems so we need to hope that doesn't happen. 

Howie can try to justify this pick but there's no real good reason for it. It's a dumb pick for a lot of reasons. 

I'm seriously having a hard time wrapping my head around it, trying to give them the benefit of the doubt, but it's hard.

Unless they are privy to a health issue that we are not, I can't figure it out.

[Madriver]

4 hours ago, Uscg-green said:

In the press conference Doug didn't look thrilled.

Dougie looked downright po'd and Howie was searching for the nearest exit.

Worst post-draft conference I've ever seen from this team.

[MR-CYN]

If you dont like the team adding talent at a position of need because you're a player fan boi get over it. It's sink or swim time for a QB with zero playoff wins. Be a fan of the team not a player. This was a great pick up.  

[judunno]

Cap space considered here? With a promising rook and Sudfield now you don't have to spin millions upon millions for a back up like we've done in the past for marginal talent. Money spent on a DE FA perhaps?

[UK_EaglesFan89]

6 hours ago, Madriver said:

I'm seriously having a hard time wrapping my head around it, trying to give them the benefit of the doubt, but it's hard.

Unless they are privy to a health issue that we are not, I can't figure it out.

Or somehow they have this grand plan to use Hurts and Wentz a lot? I mean I doubt it but I am just trying to understand it all.