Jalen Hurts wasn't a good pick by the Philadelphia Eagles — he was a great one

[Procus]

https://www.pff.com/news/draft-jalen-hurts-wasnt-a-good-pick-by-the-philadelphia-eagles-he-was-a-great-one?utm_source=cj&utm_medium=affiliate&utm_campaign=cjaff&cjevent=3d050a9c8a1b11ea802d00950a24060c

Quote

Jalen Hurts wasn't a good pick by the Philadelphia Eagles — he was a great one

By Kevin Cole
Apr 28, 2020

One of the most controversial selections of the 2020 NFL draft was the Philadelphia Eagles taking quarterback Jalen Hurts in the second round with the 53rd overall selection. The Eagles already have Carson Wentz as their putative franchise quarterback, who — at 27 years old and recently signed to a $128 million dollar contract — superficially fits the definition to a tee. Eagles fans and beat writers have a number of emotions on the Hurts pick, mostly ranging from confused to downright disturbed.

Further complicating feelings around the Hurts pick are comparisons to Taysom Hill and the focus on his role as a high-value backup, like Nick Foles. While Hurts could be a rich-man’s Hill or a stud backup, those should be thought of as secondary and tertiary benefits of the selection. 

[Editor’s Note: PFF's instant analysis on EVERY pick of the 2020 NFL Draft can be found here. You can also find all of our pre-draft and up-to-the-minute analysis categorized and readily available here. Get your copy of the PFF 2020 NFL Draft Guide today by clicking here.]

The problem with the collective assessment of the Hurts pick is how most view the quarterback position outside of a binary lens: You either have a franchise quarterback or you don’t. This philosophy assumes that if you’re lucky enough to have a solid starter, you should be focused on using free agency and draft capital only to bolster the roster around him. It ignores the fact that a quarterback like Ryan Tannehill can go from franchise-status to a cheap trade chip and back to high-paid starter in the course of a few years. There is uncertainty with every quarterback, though with some more than others.

Instead of checking a box and assuming the position is filled, teams need to constantly assess what they have at quarterback and how best to increase their chances of having the highest level of play. Far too many front offices are willing to sit and hope that quarterbacks who have shown flashes will turn into consistently elite players, even if the likelihood was never high and is decreasing every season.

In this analysis, I’ll quickly touch on the mistaken assumptions that the Hurts pick is primarily valuable due to his potential in a Hill role or as a high-end backup, then dig deeper into the proper way to view starting quarterbacks on a spectrum of potential. We'll consider how that lens reveals the necessity to continue taking calculated shots at upgrading the position. But, ultimately, the Hurts acquisition is about optionality at the most important position in football.

Rich Man’s Taysom Hill

The issues with spending a mid-second-round pick on a player like Hill — who has only played 41 snaps over the last two years at quarterback for the New Orleans Saints — aren’t new to the discourse around the Hurts pick. It’s clearly not worth the selection for such a limited role, though there’s nothing preventing the Eagles from using Hurts more extensively. There's plenty of reason to believe that Hurts brings much more to the table in even a limited role than former-UDFA Hill.

Hill was competing for snaps mostly with Drew Brees, the second-most efficient passing quarterback by expected points added (EPA) in the NFL the last two seasons. When Hill was at quarterback the last two seasons, the offense didn’t produce at a Brees-like level, but it wasn’t bad.

For all players with at least 100 quarterback snaps the last two seasons, the team EPA per play for the Saints with Hill was the fourth-highest of anyone (Wentz was 21st). Of course, 104 plays for Hill is a limited sample, but there’s some evidence that the Saints’ offense didn’t suffer much when he was behind center.

Player	Position	Plays	EPA/Play
Patrick Mahomes	QB	2306	0.168
Drew Brees	QB	1768	0.117
Lamar Jackson	QB	1721	0.081
Taysom Hill	QB	104	0.071
Ben Roethlisberger	QB	1191	0.064
Philip Rivers	QB	2161	0.051
Dak Prescott	QB	2343	0.048
Jared Goff	QB	2415	0.046
Aaron Rodgers	QB	2244	0.043
Matt Ryan	QB	2131	0.043

The Saints offense with Taysom at quarterback was most effective in short-yardage situations and near the goal line, areas where Hurts could also thrive and bring a more effective passing threat. Research by ESPN’s Brian Burke has shown on a similar play-type — the 2-point conversion — that quarterback rushing has a much higher success rate than any other type of run or pass.

High-Level Backup

Before getting into the value of a backup in the NFL, we should first get an accurate view of the opportunity cost of choosing a potentially redundant quarterback in the middle of the second round. Too often, draft analysis views selections as filling needs, instead of simply addressing them. Drafting a player in the second round doesn’t mean a positional need is satisfied. Second-round picks bust, they get injured and they might only play at a mediocre level. 

Looking at all non-QB picks over the past 10 years in terms of our wins of average (WAA) metric, you can see how likely it is to get an above-average player at the 53rd pick (dashed line) where the Eagles selected Hurts.

The 50th percentile outcome for the 53rd pick is slightly below average performance over the first four years, and even the 70th percentile is only marginally above average. Picks really pay off when players hit the 90th percentile or better of their possible outcomes. All picks, not just ones like Hurts, are most valuable at outlier outcomes.

For a backup quarterback, the value component is more difficult to realize without injury, but the payoffs are much higher than for other positions. The total expected wins above replacement (WAR) for a non-QB pick at the 53rd selection is roughly 0.3 WAR. Nick Foles produced 1.5 WAR in only two seasons, 2017 and 2018.

Enhancing the Elite Quarterback Search

Wentz has been a solid NFL quarterback after being selected as the No. 2 overall pick in 2016. He showed promise as a rookie, was playing at an MVP level before injury in 2017 and has been in the 11 to 15 range among quarterbacks according to PFF passing grades and numbers-based efficiency metrics in 2018 and 2019. His four years of NFL performance give us confidence that he’ll be an above-average quarterback, but not necessarily an elite one.

Jalen Hurts is a stronger contender to become an elite quarterback than most think, especially for a prospect available outside the first round. Hurts was highly successful in his final season at Oklahoma, with a 70% completion percentage, 12.2 adjusted yards per attempt and a PFF passing grade only lower than No. 1 pick Joe Burrow among drafted quarterbacks. You can take issue with his late breakout, but quarterbacks like Russell Wilson have shown it’s possible to turn a late breakout into an elite NFL career.

The combination of Hurts’ extensive history as a starter, eye-popping stats and strong grades led a number of different models to conclude that Hurts had the upside to be an elite quarterback. Our college-to-pro forecasts have Hurts as the second-highest projected quarterback, below only Joe Burrow and above Tua Tagovailoa. Our text-analytics on the 2020 quarterback class, which harnessed years of Dane Brugler’s scouting reports, found that Hurts’ closest comps were Deshaun Watson, Jameis Winston, Marcus Mariota, Jared Goff and Baker Mayfield. Three No. 1 overall picks, a No. 2 overall pick and one of the top three best young quarterbacks in the NFL. 

And it’s not only PFF that sees Hurts with elite-quarterback upside. Football Outsiders’ QBASE model found that Hurts was undervalued at an expected draft position of the late-third round. Developed by Andrew Healy — currently the Browns' senior personnel strategist — the model now would have Hurts’ projection only below Burrow's and Herbert's after accounting for his mid-second-round selection.

It’s not just numbers geeks who see this potential in Hurts. Doug Pederson explained on the Eagles’ post-draft conference call that they see Lamar Jackson as a fair comp for Hurts — and that senior offensive consultant Marty Mornhinweg, who was with the Ravens when they chose Jackson, was influential in the Eagles’ decision to draft Hurts.

The key to understanding the value of adding a quarterback like Hurts is understanding and estimating and the range of outcomes for quarterbacks. I’ve done work with Bayesian updating to incorporate NFL performance into the expectations and confidence we should have in quarterbacks. The numbers for Wentz show that he'll very likely be at least an average quarterback (92% probability), but less certain he’ll be a top-12 (60%) or top-six quarterback (20%). If you want to sit tight with Wentz assuming that you’ll have above-average performance, that’s a good bet. But average play isn’t the ideal at the position. 

The probabilities table below quantifies with simple math how to think about quarterback range of outcomes and how to view the addition of Hurts as part of finding an elite QB.

Player	Top-6	Top-12
Wentz	20.0%	60.0%
Hurts	10.0%	30.0%
Either QB	28.0%	72.0%
% Increase	40.0%	20.0%

If we assume Hurts is half as likely as Wentz to be a top-12 or top-6 quarterback, which is reasonable based on the probabilities in our college-to-pro model and QBASE, adding him to the quarterback room with Wentz raises the chance that the Eagles have a top-6 quarterback to 28% from 20%, or a 40% increase. In terms of finding a top-12 quarterback, the Eagles' probability with both quarterbacks rises to 72% from 60%, a 20% increase. These increases are well worth the investment of the 53rd pick, which, as we discussed earlier, normally yields a slightly below-average non-quarterback. Top quarterbacks generate 1 to 3 more wins than average quarterbacks according to our WAA metric, whereas the range for the best non-quarterbacks is around 0.3-0.7 wins. 

This strategy of taking more shots at an elite quarterback doesn’t apply equally to every team. If you add Hurts to a player like Patrick Mahomes, he barely increases the chance of having a top-6 or top-12 quarterback.

Player	Top-6	Top-12
Mahomes	80.0%	95.0%
Hurts	10.0%	30.0%
Either QB	82.0%	96.5%
% Increase	2.5%	1.6%

The overarching lesson is that you can’t treat having Derek Carr as your quarterback the same way as Lamar Jackson, and you shouldn’t lock yourself into anyone but the truly elite at the position. The best way to raise the ceiling for team performance is to attain an elite quarterback, and more teams should be making moves like the Eagles to increase the chances of having one, even if they’ve spent draft capital and significant cap space on the position. 

The Hurts acquisition gives the Eagles many options for unforeseeable circumstances. If Wentz fails, they have another quarterback with a great chance of success. If Hurts outplays Wentz in practice and they want to make the switch in a year, the Eagles will likely have strong offers for Wentz in a trade and the cap hit for the combination of Hurts’ contract and Wentz’s dead money will be roughly the same as Wentz’s scheduled 2021 cap hit. If Wentz gets injured, they have a potential high-level backup, good enough to give a team with many pieces in place a chance to win the title. 

And even if Wentz rebounds to 2017 form, becomes an elite quarterback and remains healthy, the Eagles have the option to use Hurts as an enhanced version of Taysom Hill — and to potentially trade him down the road. Teams shouldn’t give themselves only one out at the most important position in the game, and the Eagles have gained insurance and upside with the selection of Jalen Hurts

 

[Perforator]

I wonder how much it cost Teflow Howie to have PFF puff him up?

 

[Outlaw]

2 hours ago, Perforator said:

I wonder how much it cost Teflow Howie to have PFF puff him up?

 

TL;DR for you? PS it's teflon.

[MR-CYN]

It's going to be time to get some meaningful playoff wins real soon. Without Foles this franchise hasn't won a playoff game since 2008. Even Andy Dalton took his team to the playoffs his first 4 years in a row. I doubt his fanbase was anywhere near as stand by their man as the Battered Wife Wentzets™ are. I guess empty garbage time stats against garbage teams are what keep some fans going thru life. 

Great pick. 

[Perforator]

15 minutes ago, Outlaw said:

TL;DR for you? PS it's teflon.

Lol my bad

[UK_EaglesFan89]

4 hours ago, Procus said:

Of course, 104 plays for Hill is a limited sample, but there’s some evidence that the Saints’ offense didn’t suffer much when he was behind center.

It didn't suffer because that's a really creative offense that picks its moments and maximises those opportunities. The whole point in using Hill is to throw a defense off to exploit a big play that's why it has success. 

[time2rock]

Drafting a player in the second round doesn’t mean a positional need is satisfied. Second-round picks bust, they get injured and they might only play at a mediocre level. 
 

See Sydney Jones.

[ilikepargo]

8 hours ago, Procus said:

Drafting a player in the second round doesn’t mean a positional need is satisfied. Second-round picks bust, they get injured and they might only play at a mediocre level.

This can be said of any player picked at any point in the draft for any position.  There are 1st Round busts and 1st Round successes.  There are 7th Round picks and even UDFAs who excel, and there are those who don't make it out of TC with the team.  This is why scouting and player evaluation is such a big business.  When a player is picked in the 2nd Round, that generally means that that player is thought to be more likely to succeed than a player who is picked in the 4th Round.

Given the obvious truth of what I just typed, it is clear that the article makes no point whatsoever with this line.  And the argument that other areas of far greater actual need might have been helped more by picking a quality player at a different position (WR/LB/BD/S) is still quite valid.

[KOJO]

So this is basically saying that the Eagles have soured on the idea that Wentz is/can be elite, and at the very least they needed to draft Hurts to bolster the performance at the position if not outright replace Wentz.

 

[Procus]

Here's what I can't grasp - the Eagles won the 2017 SB with a BACKUP AT QB!!!!!!

How can you not grasp the importance of getting it right at this position?  Hasn't this team shown through the years that more often than not, it gets it right at the QB position? 

[Uscg-green]

5 minutes ago, Procus said:

Here's what I can't grasp - the Eagles won the 2017 SB with a BACKUP AT QB!!!!!!

How can you not grasp the importance of getting it right at this position?  Hasn't this team shown through the years that more often than not, it gets it right at the QB position? 

That was a glorious fluke. It will not be repeated. 99 percent of the time when you lose your starter long term, season over. 

[Outlaw]

1 hour ago, Uscg-green said:

That was a glorious fluke. It will not be repeated. 99 percent of the time when you lose your starter long term, season over. 

You’re right. Might as well not even carry anyone other than Carson and Greg Ward. Saves those two roster spots for a 5th and 6th RB. 

[Uscg-green]

32 minutes ago, Outlaw said:

You’re right. Might as well not even carry anyone other than Carson and Greg Ward. Saves those two roster spots for a 5th and 6th RB. 

I said long term. A backup can fill in for a game or two. That's where a guy like Flacco comes into play

[Outlaw]

Just now, Uscg-green said:

I said long term. A backup can fill in for a game or two. That's where a guy like Flacco comes into play

Dude, Flacco is toast. Find someone who actually is still average to tout. 

[Uscg-green]

8 minutes ago, Outlaw said:

Dude, Flacco is toast. Find someone who actually is still average to tout. 

He's still got enough left in the tank to manage a game or two 

[Outlaw]

10 minutes ago, Uscg-green said:

He's still got enough left in the tank to manage a game or two 

Like McCown?  They don’t want an overpaid over the hill backup like Flacco or McCown. They want a groom-able, cheap and young option behind Carson who can come in and run THEIR offense for a game or two (or longer if need be), not just have a game manager they need to dumb down their whole offense for on the fly. Either way, it’s done. Build a bridge and get over it. 

[UK_EaglesFan89]

5 hours ago, Outlaw said:

Like McCown?  They don’t want an overpaid over the hill backup like Flacco or McCown. They want a groom-able, cheap and young option behind Carson who can come in and run THEIR offense for a game or two (or longer if need be), not just have a game manager they need to dumb down their whole offense for on the fly. Either way, it’s done. Build a bridge and get over it. 

My only thing with this pick (well I have a couple but I have come around to the pick and so don't have a major issue with it now) is Hurts' style of play. Is it a fit for this team? His style may require us to tweak the offense and he isn't necessarily in the same mould as Wentz.

[PoconoDon]

17 hours ago, time2rock said:

Drafting a player in the second round doesn’t mean a positional need is satisfied. Second-round picks bust, they get injured and they might only play at a mediocre level. 
 

See Sydney Jones.

I'd rather not.

[vaff]

Point of the article seems to be that QB’s are so much more valuable than any other position. A good back up doesn’t even have to play a whole lot to be worth more than almost anyone else we could have gotten at pick 53. As well as that, Hurts increases our chances of having an elite QB — instead of having all  our eggs in the Wentz basket. And obviously if he is an elite QB, that’s by far the most valuable thing in football. 🤔🤷‍♀️

[Eagles187]

17 hours ago, Outlaw said:

Either way, it’s done. Build a bridge and get over it. 

This.  I'm across the bridge at this point.  It's done.  Firing Howie or anyone for that matter before letting it play out doesn't make any sense.  There will be a time to hold people accountable but 5 minutes after the draft isn't it.

[MR-CYN]

Over paying for a known quantity with a low ceiling isn't in the plans. Bringing in a player with a high ceiling is the way to go. Boom or bust. Let it rip tater chip. 

[hey suess]

On 4/30/2020 at 5:01 AM, UK_EaglesFan89 said:

My only thing with this pick (well I have a couple but I have come around to the pick and so don't have a major issue with it now) is Hurts' style of play. Is it a fit for this team? His style may require us to tweak the offense and he isn't necessarily in the same mould as Wentz.

He proved that he can learn, and be successful In, multiple styles of play. 

[UK_EaglesFan89]

1 hour ago, hey suess said:

He proved that he can learn, and be successful In, multiple styles of play. 

Is that true though? He's a run first QB is how I see him...

[Miami]

Am warming up to this pick.  Just need to see how well he throws.  Anybody follow OK and can tell us more?  Thanks.

[UK_EaglesFan89]

29 minutes ago, Miami said:

Am warming up to this pick.  Just need to see how well he throws.  Anybody follow OK and can tell us more?  Thanks.

I'm getting there too. I mean I'll never really understand it but I'm seeing more sense and logic to it. However, it'll only work if Hurts is actually a good QB, if he's not then this whole situation is going to have Howie out of town.