June 13, 20205 yr On 6/11/2020 at 10:36 PM, Ace Nova said: Guys, before going off about Eagles’ draft picks, do some research or overall success rates of NFL draft picks. Outside the first 10 picks or so, the chances of getting an NFL caliber player that lasts over 5 years in the league is less than 50% and goes all the way down to less than 25% in the later rounds. If the Eagles average around 7 picks per year and they have 2-3 guys per draft last over 5 years in the league, they are right around average. Love data lets look at the last 5 years of drafts just for fun. Keep in mind this is slightly subjective and the more recent years are difficult to make calls on. Also, just because they made a key play in the super bowl run that does not mean they are automatically a good pick. I measured by using both talent and contribution (for the round) in my analysis. 2013 (1st 2 rds): 2 out of 2 (got 2 star players in 2 picks) (rds 3-7): 2 out of 6 picks (I am counting Poyer who we gave up on early) Overall --> Good 4/8 2014 (1&2): 1 out of 2 (Jordan Matthews was decent starter) (3-7): 1 out of 5 (Beau Allen in rd 7) Overall--> Poor 2/7 2015 (1&2): 0 out of 2 (sorry Agholor) (3-7): 1 out of 4 with Hicks (this actually fits the NFL average) Overall--> Poor (Hicks and Agholor) = 1 out of 6 2016 (1&2): 1/1 CARSON! (3-7): 3 out of 7 Overall--> Good (4 quality players including Carson) = 4 out of 8 2017 (1&2): 1 out of 2 (and I hope Sidney steps up and makes it 2 for 2) (3-7): 1 out of 6 Overall--> Mediocre (Gerry, Douglas, Jones, and Barnett) = I would say 2 out of 8 for now 2018 (1&2): 1/1 (excellent pick with Godert) (3-7): 3 out of 6 (good rotational guys I am counting Poyer/Mailata as 1) Overall--> Good 4 out of 7 2019 (1&2): 2 out of 3 (I am counting Dillard in the hopes he pans out) (3-7): 0 out of 3 Overall--> Mediocre (2 guys if Dillard pans out) = 2 out of 6 hopefully So our final counts... 18 out of 51 hits Rounds 1 & 2: 8 out of 13 * this really surprised me how often the Birds have hit on quality contributors in the 1st two rounds. The real issue with our early picks is who they pick vs who they leave on the board. Rounds 3-7: 11 out of 38 According to my completely subjective analysis, the eagles appear to fall well within normal distribution for drafting players that will become contributors
June 14, 20205 yr On 4/30/2020 at 1:31 AM, kentwo said: 3rd Round picks from the last ten years. Brian Westbrook Billy McMullen Matt Ware Ryan Moats Chris Gocong Tony Hunt Stewart Bradley Bryan Smith Daniel Te'o-Nesheim Curtis Marsh Nick Foles Bennie Logan Josh Huff Jordan Hicks Isaac Seumalo Rasul Douglas Davion Taylor Quite a few whiffs there
June 14, 20205 yr 22 hours ago, QBhunter58 said: Love data lets look at the last 5 years of drafts just for fun. Keep in mind this is slightly subjective and the more recent years are difficult to make calls on. Also, just because they made a key play in the super bowl run that does not mean they are automatically a good pick. I measured by using both talent and contribution (for the round) in my analysis. 2013 (1st 2 rds): 2 out of 2 (got 2 star players in 2 picks) (rds 3-7): 2 out of 6 picks (I am counting Poyer who we gave up on early) Overall --> Good 4/8 2014 (1&2): 1 out of 2 (Jordan Matthews was decent starter) (3-7): 1 out of 5 (Beau Allen in rd 7) Overall--> Poor 2/7 2015 (1&2): 0 out of 2 (sorry Agholor) (3-7): 1 out of 4 with Hicks (this actually fits the NFL average) Overall--> Poor (Hicks and Agholor) = 1 out of 6 2016 (1&2): 1/1 CARSON! (3-7): 3 out of 7 Overall--> Good (4 quality players including Carson) = 4 out of 8 2017 (1&2): 1 out of 2 (and I hope Sidney steps up and makes it 2 for 2) (3-7): 1 out of 6 Overall--> Mediocre (Gerry, Douglas, Jones, and Barnett) = I would say 2 out of 8 for now 2018 (1&2): 1/1 (excellent pick with Godert) (3-7): 3 out of 6 (good rotational guys I am counting Poyer/Mailata as 1) Overall--> Good 4 out of 7 2019 (1&2): 2 out of 3 (I am counting Dillard in the hopes he pans out) (3-7): 0 out of 3 Overall--> Mediocre (2 guys if Dillard pans out) = 2 out of 6 hopefully So our final counts... 18 out of 51 hits Rounds 1 & 2: 8 out of 13 * this really surprised me how often the Birds have hit on quality contributors in the 1st two rounds. The real issue with our early picks is who they pick vs who they leave on the board. Rounds 3-7: 11 out of 38 According to my completely subjective analysis, the eagles appear to fall well within normal distribution for drafting players that will become contributors Well done. This is exactly what I mean. 👍👍
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