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Bailey Zappe (Western Kentucky QB) -- DRAFTED BY NEW ENGLAND #137


The Blackfish
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6’ 2” 215lbs.   One of the reasons no one has really about this kid is because he transferred out of Houston Baptist (FCS) in 2020 to Western Kentucky (FBS).  The numbers he put up last season with HB were pretty good, but he’s absolutely killing it this year through 10 games.    

 343-484 71.9%  4,195 Yds  42 Tds  7 Ints. 
  Nationally, Zappe is 7th in Comp%, 1st in Tds, and 1st in Yards.     
 
 Personally I’ve only seen him play 2.5 games in 2021, Zappe like a lot of college QB’s is in an Air Raid offense that he played in at HB, he’s in a weak conference, but that also means the talent around him isn’t great either, minus WR Jerreth Sterns.  He’s accurate and puts the ball only where his guys can catch it on tight throws, his pocket awareness is something Jalen Hurts dreams of, Zappe is mobile, but definitely not a running QB. He knows just when to move, set his feet and throw instead of looking for a running lane. 
  Biggest downside is his arm strength, I’m not sure if he’s Jake Fromm weak, but it’s close and that’s a killer at the NFL level. He’ll throw it deep like all QB’s can, but hash to hash in college is much different from the NFL and throwing across those he doesn’t get much on the ball.  We’ll all likely see how his arm is at workouts and at the combine, but it’s an area he needs a lot of improvement on because everything else being equal, Zappe is a 1st Round pick with a good, not great arm. 
 
FYI,  Last season W. Kentucky was ranked 115th in offense, in 2021 they are 7th and this is without a really talented RB. 

 

 

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He's starting to get some buzz lately and he can definitely make some pretty throws, watching highlights videos though, I worry that a lot of the time he's throwing to guys with no one within 3 ft of them and I wonder how he will be fitting it into tighter windows, although I understand that he's maintained his accuracy levels and protected the ball against higher level opposition whenever he's been asked.

This years QB draft class is a crap shoot honestly, looking at some of the grades floating around for QB's and the latest rankings there it's clear there isn't a QB worth a top ten pick coming out, I think Zappe made Kipers latest top 10 QB's and he only has 2 QB's going 1st round and none in the top 20, this guy could easily be available on day 3, and he's definitely worth a punt there.

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Watching Wilson and Lawrence this year makes me wonder if last years class wasn’t overrated a bit?  Bad teams I know but even Lawrence’s O-line is better than Wilson’s.   Not in discussion but Miami’s is really awful, I’m not sure if Brady could do well behind that line. 
 
Back to OP, I don’t see how Trey Lance can be seen as a top 5 pick, and Matt Corral isn’t?  I know Lance has a canon, but Corral can make all the throws and he plays against much better competition, same for Wilson really.      
 IMO Fields and Lawrence had justified hype, unless you hold Ohio St against Fields ( no good QB’s ever from Ohio St) Mac Jones was great at Alabama, but it was for only one season.   

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On 11/17/2021 at 11:49 AM, Cochis_Calhoun said:

This years QB draft class is a crap shoot honestly, looking at some of the grades floating around for QB's and the latest rankings there it's clear there isn't a QB worth a top ten pick coming out,

Just remember my Corral comparison.

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  • 3 weeks later...

I am also high on Baily Zappe.   Seen him play 5 times this year and 2 times last year.    What is exciting about Zappe is that he should fall well out out of the first round, which makes him much less of a risk.    He is going to end up on an NFL team.  The question is where and when.

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On 11/17/2021 at 4:07 PM, The Blackfish said:

Watching Wilson and Lawrence this year makes me wonder if last years class wasn’t overrated a bit?  Bad teams I know but even Lawrence’s O-line is better than Wilson’s.   Not in discussion but Miami’s is really awful, I’m not sure if Brady could do well behind that line. 
 
Back to OP, I don’t see how Trey Lance can be seen as a top 5 pick, and Matt Corral isn’t?  I know Lance has a canon, but Corral can make all the throws and he plays against much better competition, same for Wilson really.      
 IMO Fields and Lawrence had justified hype, unless you hold Ohio St against Fields ( no good QB’s ever from Ohio St) Mac Jones was great at Alabama, but it was for only one season.   

I never understood why Tua and Lawrence were designated as uber prospects, they both looked like 1st rd picks to me but never like generational type players.

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On 12/10/2021 at 2:42 PM, The Blackfish said:

 

One season of college football, playing in a crap conf, playing crap schools. 

4th-5th round at best. 

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Not bad for one year in FBS, weak conference absolutely, but coming from Houston Baptist, he deserves some credit. 

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  • 4 weeks later...

I’d take Zappe in the 5th without hesitation. QB this year is a crapshoot. 

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On 12/18/2021 at 6:11 PM, DeathByEagle said:

One season of college football, playing in a crap conf, playing crap schools. 

4th-5th round at best. 

He's raised his numbers every year and in his 5th year he moved to FBS level and makes a quantum leap, numbers like that demand respect, I don't care who you're playing against, plenty of guys played in Conference USA before, they didn't throw for 6000 yards and 62 TD's. He played Michigan State this year and threw for 488 yards at 72%, 3TD's and no picks, they were ranked 17 in the country.

If you're playing at a lower level you need gaudy numbers to get noticed, Last year he threw for 1833 yards in 4 games for Houston Baptist, including a game where Texas Tech needed a last minute 2 point conversion to win, his leading receiver averaged 100yards and a TD per game at 31 yards a reception over 4 games, the same guy this year without Zappe throwing the ball is averaging 14.75yards a game and hasn't scored a TD all season.

If I was looking to take a QB this year I'd take this kid anywhere from late 3rd.

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Some team will take a flyer on him on day 3.  With 5 picks of our own, I'd definitely be down with grabbing him with one of them.  Even if he doesn't pan out as an eventual starter we can groom him to serve as a backup.  

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If the team is really committed to Hurts for next season, then the 4th or later is the right time to look at a QB.

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2 hours ago, Cochis_Calhoun said:

He's raised his numbers every year and in his 5th year he moved to FBS level and makes a quantum leap, numbers like that demand respect, I don't care who you're playing against, plenty of guys played in Conference USA before, they didn't throw for 6000 yards and 62 TD's. He played Michigan State this year and threw for 488 yards at 72%, 3TD's and no picks, they were ranked 17 in the country.

If you're playing at a lower level you need gaudy numbers to get noticed, Last year he threw for 1833 yards in 4 games for Houston Baptist, including a game where Texas Tech needed a last minute 2 point conversion to win, his leading receiver averaged 100yards and a TD per game at 31 yards a reception over 4 games, the same guy this year without Zappe throwing the ball is averaging 14.75yards a game and hasn't scored a TD all season.

If I was looking to take a QB this year I'd take this kid anywhere from late 3rd.

 QB is the one position that their competition doesn’t really determine how well they’ll translate to the NFL.  I’m not the biggest Malik Willis fan, but destroying him for how he played against Ole Miss is kinda wrong, it’s not like he’s playing with a bunch of 1st or 2nd round talent on Liberty.    
Zappe going from Houston Baptist to Western Kentucky and to put up those numbers, in his first FBS season, he deserves a look by almost every team in the 3rd round and later.
 If his OC went to Georgia instead of Western Kentucky, this might be a different draft. 

Btw, did you see his OC Zach Kittley got the OC job at TT?  He’ll be a name to watch next season. 

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On 11/15/2021 at 11:35 PM, The Blackfish said:

He’s accurate and puts the ball only where his guys can catch it on tight throws, his pocket awareness is something Jalen Hurts dreams of, Zappe is mobile, but definitely not a running QB. He knows just when to move, set his feet and throw instead of looking for a running lane. 

Biggest downside is his arm strength, I’m not sure if he’s Jake Fromm weak, but it’s close and that’s a killer at the NFL level. He’ll throw it deep like all QB’s can, but hash to hash in college is much different from the NFL and throwing across those he doesn’t get much on the ball.  We’ll all likely see how his arm is at workouts and at the combine, but it’s an area he needs a lot of improvement on because everything else being equal, Zappe is a 1st Round pick with a good, not great arm. 
 

Highlights looked good but there were too many easy TD's, it's hard to know what you have, as you noted, gotta wait for the combine which is really wise to do for every player, especially when playing against weak competition. 

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If we're going for a developmental QB prospect in Day 3, why not? Minshew only has one more year left on his deal anyways and could be trade bait for a team looking to upgrade at QB2.

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