Jump to content

How much did Eagles’ loss hurt their playoff chances?


Recommended Posts

How much did Eagles’ loss hurt their playoff chances?


EAST RUTHERFORD, N.J. — The Eagles got to sit back on Thanksgiving, eat turkey and watch everything go their way.

And for a few days after that Cowboys’ loss it really felt like, hey, maybe the Eagles really do have a shot at winning the NFC East.

Then they went to MetLife Stadium and laid an egg, losing to the Giants 13-7.

How bad did this loss hurt the Eagles’ playoff chances?

Well, it wasn’t good.

Here’s what the loss did to the Eagles’ chances of making the playoffs, according to FiveThirtyEight:

Win the NFC East: 18% —> 8%

Make the playoffs: 43% —> 23%

So this loss and the way the Sunday scheduled played out saw the Eagles’ chances to get into the playoffs fall 20%. That’s … not great.

Meanwhile, the New York Times model had the Eagles’ playoff chances drop from 39% to 24%, which isn’t as big a drop but still pretty steep.

But the Eagles’ aren’t dead yet. They still have plenty of winnable games on their schedule, beginning with the Jets next week. (Although the Jets did pick up their third win of the season on Sunday.)

Here’s an updated look at the NFC playoff picture. Keep in mind there are three wild card teams that get in these days:

1. Cardinals (9-3, 1st in NFC West)

2. Packers (9-3, 1st in NFC North) 

3. Buccaneers (8-3, 1st in NFC South)

4. Cowboys (7-4, 1st in NFC East)

5. Rams (7-4, 2nd in NFC West)

6. 49ers (6-5, 3rd in NFC West)

7. Vikings (5-6, 2nd in NFC North)


8. Falcons (5-6, 2nd in NFC South)

9. Saints (5-6, 3rd in NFC South)

10. Eagles (5-7, 2nd in NFC East)

11. Panthers (5-7, 4th in NFC South)

12. Washington (4-6, 3rd in NFC East)

So as bad as Sunday’s loss was, the Eagles are still just 0.5 games behind the Vikings for that seventh spot. The problem is there are a bunch of teams in that area and there will be another if Washington is able to beat the Seahawks (3-7) on Monday Night Football.

The Eagles have opened as 7-point favorites over the Jets in Week 13, according to PointsBet. While nothing is a given anymore, that is certainly a winnable game.

And if the Eagles win that one heading into the bye week, their playoff chances improve to 30%, according to FiveThirtyEight, or 29%, according to the New York Times. But they really need to win that one, perhaps just to keep pace. The 49ers play the Seahawks in Week 13 and the Vikings play the Lions.

The Eagles still five games to go in the 2021 season. Their playoff chances aren’t dead yet.


Link to comment
Share on other sites

The probability took a big hit. They're not playing playoff caliber football. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

16 hours ago, PoconoDon said:

The probability took a big hit. They're not playing playoff caliber football. 

Agreed. Ultimately actually I don't think it made a huge difference because I think all the teams in the hunt are going to lose games. But this team can probably only afford to drop one more game the rest of the way.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now

  • Create New...