Off season

[Rob331]

First let's look at the Eagles needs:

• Cornerback - Nelson is a free agent so we need a starter. After McPhereson and Scott it's a bunch of never were's, won't be's and aren'ts on the bench. Call it a starter and a backup
• Defensive end - If Barnett is back it'll be a surprise and Kerrigan is leaving. Sweat and BG can start so call it 2 rotational players who will get playing time.
• Safety - both McLeod and Harris are free agents. I think they let both move on and sign a free agent. Epps has proven himself so we'll need a starter 
• Defensive tackle - Hargrave is solid, Fletch is moving towards being a rotational player, Williams looks promising. the group of Ridgeway (FA), Wilson, and Williams is uninspiring so we'll need one 
• Linebacker - OK, Edwards looked pretty good, we have hopes for Taylor, and Singleton plays his heart out. We still need to establish an NFL quality backer room. Need 2. 
• Center - whether Jason comes back or not we need to prepare. Draft a quality center now while we have picks. 
• Offensive tackle - I expect Dillard to be traded, if he is we need one
• Running back - Howard is a free agent and Sanders has a horrible injury history. Gainwell is a nice change of pace, but we'll need a sanders replacement on the roster
• Wide receiver - JJAW is history. I don't think we have the money or picks to replace Reagor also, but at least 1 wide out is a must and 2 are needed
• Tight end - this wouldn't have been on the list until Tyree Jackson tore up his knee. Now it is.
• Quarterback - let's keep Hurts and Minshew but we'll still need a developmental quarterback even if Sennett stays. 
• To recap - 2 CB, 2 DE, 1 DT, 2 S, 2 LB, 1 C, 1 OT, 1 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 1 QB = A NEED OF 16 PLAYERS TO REPLACE FREE AGENT LOSSES, A POTENTIAL RETIREMENT AND ROSTER UPGRADE

The cap and free agency -

The Eagles only have $13 million of cap money according to over the cap. If Brandon Brooks is let go or retires post June 1 that adds another $13 million for a total of $26 million. Let's figure on it taking about $7M to bring Jason Kelce back and another $4M for Jordan Howard. That leaves the Eagles with $15M less their in-season needs for 2022. Bottom line they have about $12M to spend. 

The Saints are projected to be $60M+ over the 2022 cap so signing their own free agents just doesn't seem to be in the cards. They have two position players from a highly rated defense in Eagles of positions of need that should be targets. 27 year old linebacker Kwon alexander made $1.25M this year. Sign him for $5M. Safety Marcus Williams is 25 and made $10M this year. Howie needs to get creative and sign him to a monster long term deal. If Williams isn't in the cards I'd sign Houston S Justin Reed who will be very affordable or even re-sign Rodney McLeod. The upshot of the free agent season is the Eagles sign a safety and a linebacker reducing their needs to 14 players (13 if we don't trade Dillard). 

The draft - 

 

We need 14 players after free agency but have 10 picks. It's completely unlikely we make enough trades to get to 14 but 13 is in the cards. 

• Trade Dillard for a 3rd.
• Trade our first #1 for a 1 and a 2
• Trade our third #1 for a 2 and a 3
• We now have two 1's (pick 17 and a pick from 27 to 32), three 2's, three 3's, a 4, three 5's and a 6 = 13 picks. I'm not sure ow much the potential trades on profootballnetwork draft simulator are realistic but all of the above show up as doable.

 

• 1 - CB Ahmed Gardner. He's our starter going into the season.  6'2" 4.49 (Nelson)
• 1 - DE Jermaine Johnson, Florida State. 6'4" 255 (Barnett)
• 2 - S Daxton Hill, Michigan State. 6'0" 192 4.5 (Harris)
• 2 - C Alec Lindstrom, Boston College. 6'4" 290 5.28 (Eventual Kelce)
• 2 - DT Trevon Walker, Georgia. 6'5" 290 4.6. Like Milton Williams, he can play inside or out. (Ridgeway)
• 3 - RB Zach Charbonnet, UCLA . 6'0" 220 4.50 (Scott whose roll is actually picked up by Gainwell)
• 3- DE Jeffrey Gunter, Coastal Carolina. 6'4" 260 4.85 (Kerrigan)
• 3- WR Alec Pierce, Cincinnati. 6'3" 208 4.5 (JJAW)
• 4 - CB Tariq Woolen, Texas-San Antonio 6'3" 205 4.48. A height weight speed pick (Take your pick Chachere, Kays, Gowan)
• 5- OT Obina Eze, TCU 6'7" 325 (Dillard)
• 5- WR Charleston Rambo Miami (FL) 6'1" 182 4.45 (Hightower)
• 5- S Bubba Bolden, Miami (FL) 6'3" 200 4.53 (Wallace or Practice squad)
• 6- QB Brock Purdy, Iowa State (Sennett or practice squad)

 

 

[Ray75]

That’s a lot of trades, Rob! 

But...I love that draft, man!

[UK_EaglesFan89]

The draft is very very good. The off season moves overall though? Hmm I'm not so sure there. I mean going with Sweat and BG as the starters? That's risky especially as we don't know how BG will be when he returns. And Epps starting at S? He's been a good player this year but he's a rotation guy. 

[Rob331]

On 1/13/2022 at 1:20 PM, Ray75 said:

That’s a lot of trades, Rob! 

But...I love that draft, man!

If Howie looks at the teams needs and the resources at hand I don't see that he has any alternative to adding picks through trades. Trading Dillard is a wash since we'll need a OT to replace him unless you trust La'Raven or Driscoll to be our backup tackle. 

There are only 2 draft day trades in the scenario which I don't think is out of the question. 

Thanks for the feedback. 

[Rob331]

21 hours ago, UK_EaglesFan89 said:

The draft is very very good. The off season moves overall though? Hmm I'm not so sure there. I mean going with Sweat and BG as the starters? That's risky especially as we don't know how BG will be when he returns. And Epps starting at S? He's been a good player this year but he's a rotation guy. 

UK - I don't see any alternative to starting BG and Sweat. We're not going to get Thibadeaux, Hutchinson, or Karlatsis. Johnson is next on the list butI don't think he'd be a better starter than BG or Sweat. With our available cap space I don't think a starting DE is in the cards either. 

With respect to safety it's cap space and resources. What alternatives are there? We just don't have the $'s to sign 2 free agent safeties. My scenario has us signing one and drafting two. The starters could be the free agent we sign along with one of the draft picks and maybe you're right Daxton Hall could sine in camp and beat Epps out for the starters role. 

My real focus is the post was building a stronger roster than the one we have. Hopefully you think I got that done. 

Thanks for your thoughts. 

[UK_EaglesFan89]

2 hours ago, Rob331 said:

UK - I don't see any alternative to starting BG and Sweat. We're not going to get Thibadeaux, Hutchinson, or Karlatsis. Johnson is next on the list butI don't think he'd be a better starter than BG or Sweat. With our available cap space I don't think a starting DE is in the cards either. 

With respect to safety it's cap space and resources. What alternatives are there? We just don't have the $'s to sign 2 free agent safeties. My scenario has us signing one and drafting two. The starters could be the free agent we sign along with one of the draft picks and maybe you're right Daxton Hall could sine in camp and beat Epps out for the starters role. 

My real focus is the post was building a stronger roster than the one we have. Hopefully you think I got that done. 

Thanks for your thoughts. 

Oh no bud don't get me wrong I get what you're trying to do and there's a lot of logic to it. We need to build a stronger roster and especially on defense. It is a huge off season for this team with the picks they have. 

[Crazy Legs]

My thoughts regarding your analysis of how to deal with the off-season is as follows:

Free agency and salary cap

There won't be much cap space to play around with. Sure, we can continue to kick the can down the road (somewhat), but the bill must eventually be paid. We will be in much better position the season after next if we don't continue to paint ourselves into a corner (cap hell). I think we will again be forced to "bottom feed" once again after the "feeding frenzy" ends, and the remaining vets start to consider "prove it" contracts. An example might be someone like Dallas safety Jayron Kearse. It's a bit chancy, but there will be numerous aging vets, unknowns and "place holders" available to choose from...we do it almost every off-season. Also, we must factor in at least $14M for signing our draft picks Does anyone remember the year we couldn't sign one of our selections due to not having enough rookie cap money?

The draft

I'll settle for quality over quantity any day. Your scenario produces only one "bona fide" prospect (sauce). I would be very upset if the Eagles blew the chance to add three seriously needed additions to our already competitive roster. Lindstrom will never be the equal of a Linderbaum; Gunter is no Ojabo; Charbonnet fills no need; and I would take a Burks, London, Williams or even Ross before Pierce. Moreover, none of the later picks gives me any sense of improvement.

In summary

I appreciate your thought-provoking post (I wouldn't have responded otherwise). I certainly mean no disrespect, and I appreciate the effort you put into it. Keep up the good work.

I feel that the Eagles realize it's time to move on from the Superbowl season and work towards the next campaign. To do so, will require maintaining our past strengths (O-line, running game, QB pressure) and improve our weaknesses (secondary, deep threat, roster depth, special teams). To that end, they have worked towards developing a healthy competitive salary cap structure (hopefully) and collected a multitude of draft picks to wheel and deal going forward.

Looking forward to great off-season - I trust you feel likewise.

 

[Greenakers2]

Charbonnet stays in school, regrettably.  Love Gardner-would be a prime target.....but not sure he's there.

[Rob331]

13 hours ago, Crazy Legs said:

I'll settle for quality over quantity any day. Your scenario produces only one "bona fide" prospect (sauce). I would be very upset if the Eagles blew the chance to add three seriously needed additions to our already competitive roster. Lindstrom will never be the equal of a Linderbaum; Gunter is no Ojabo; Charbonnet fills no need; and I would take a Burks, London, Williams or even Ross before Pierce. Moreover, none of the later picks gives me any sense of improvement.

I hear you, but we disagree on the quality and depth of this draft. My opinion is that the quality isn't there and there are only 7 or 8 "studs" in this draft but there is depth and from 9 to 60 there isn't much differentiation. 

 

[Crazy Legs]

2 hours ago, Rob331 said:

I hear you, but we disagree on the quality and depth of this draft. My opinion is that the quality isn't there and there are only 7 or 8 "studs" in this draft but there is depth and from 9 to 60 there isn't much differentiation. 

 

I agree - I overreached on the typical quantity of 'true studs" - and this draft is no different. This draft is particularly lacking in stud quarterbacks that push other candidates downward to the mid 1st range (where we currently reside).

[Cheesteakitis]

don’t they get to carry over the 21 million they have in cap space this year into next?

[ibleedgreen1990]

On 1/17/2022 at 7:13 AM, Cheesteakitis said:

don’t they get to carry over the 21 million they have in cap space this year into next?

Was about to say this. Not sure the exact carry over but there will definitely be something there. We will also open up more cap in other ways. Rumor has it Brooks is going to retire.

[Cheesteakitis]

18 hours ago, ibleedgreen1990 said:

Was about to say this. Not sure the exact carry over but there will definitely be something there. We will also open up more cap in other ways. Rumor has it Brooks is going to retire.

yeah i’m not sure just no over the cap has us listed at like 21 million in space for 2021

[ibleedgreen1990]

1 hour ago, Cheesteakitis said:

yeah i’m not sure just no over the cap has us listed at like 21 million in space for 2021

Pretty sure we have a roll over from last year of like 15 and about the same I think before any moves. Then brooks is rumored to retire.. possibly let graham go, and any other cap saving moves. Think we get a bit of wentzs money off the books next year too. 
 

basically we have a ton more than everyone seems to think lol. After paying nelson his incentive anyway the front office looks like someone free agents could play for. Team has enough picks and promise to get young guys attention too. 
 

I want reddick, donte jackson and mike Williams before the draft. Imagine the flexibility we would have.

[Crazy Legs]

From PFF

90. S JAYRON KEARSE, DALLAS COWBOYS

This offseason, Kearse signed a veteran-minimum salary with the Cowboys and was one of many safety additions alongside Damontae Kazee and hybrid safety-linebacker Keanu Neal. Despite the competition for snaps, Kearse has emerged as the best of the bunch and is on track for a career-high PFF grade on over 1,000 snaps after never having played more than 503 in a single season prior.

Strengths:
-Size
-Man coverage vs TEs
-Tackling

Weaknesses:
-Sample size
-Something of a ‘tweener

Scheme Fit/Role:
MATCHUP SS: Kearse is at his best using his size and length to cover tight ends one-on-one as the answer to how that position has developed in recent years. He has the size to combat those bigger bodies and the coverage skills to go man-to-man. Teams that play a lot of man coverage or matchup zone should consider him specifically for that assignment.

Recent Injury History:
Kearse played over 1,000 snaps in the regular season in 2021 before picking up a hamstring injury before Week 18.

Contract Projection: Three years, $15 million ($5M per year), $8.25 million total guaranteed

Bottom Line:
Jayron Kearse is a potential answer to the matchup problems caused by tight ends who can run and catch like wideouts but in a 250-pound frame. Kearse has man coverage skills but in a much bigger body. How he fares in traditional zone assignments is less clear, which limits his market.

[Overlord]

On 1/15/2022 at 12:53 AM, Crazy Legs said:

I'll settle for quality over quantity any day. Your scenario produces only one "bona fide" prospect (sauce). I would be very upset if the Eagles blew the chance to add three seriously needed additions to our already competitive roster. Lindstrom will never be the equal of a Linderbaum; Gunter is no Ojabo; Charbonnet fills no need; and I would take a Burks, London, Williams or even Ross before Pierce. Moreover, none of the later picks gives me any sense of improvement.

disagree with so much of this

firstly picks 15-19 are hardly bona fide prospects, we'd like to think they are but they all definitely have reasons for falling to that point and the reason is hardly ever that theres just SO much talent above them that these studs are still available.  and comparing Lindstrom to linderbaum and Ojabo to Gunter seems silly, yes of course theres a reason both are projected ahead of the others; however, pretending Lindstrom would never equal Linderbaum ignores every prospect ever thats outplayed their draft position (Hello Kelce), and Ojabo himself is just a one year wonder with crazy athletic traits, its not like that has never busted before.

i understand wut youre saying but theres just so much assumption there. Assuming picks 15-19 are the only ones with potential and everything past that is just throwing darts, assuming those 2 prospects have no bust potential and the others have limited hit potential. idk, just sounds like you like who you like and anything different will be view with immense skepticism.