I don’t care if someone pulls a stat from the gold standard stat archive that states Hurts actually threw for 4,500 yards and 50 TDs this year and we were all counting wrong.

We need a Declaration of Independence from watching Jalen Hurts.  "We hold these truths to be self evident.”  Jalen Hurts is a horrible passer.  If he has "progressed” and "improved,” he is still WELL within the category of horrible passer.  

When the temperature improves from -40 to -30 degrees, it doesn’t prevent someone from freezing to death.

If it is not self evident to you that Hurts is a very bad passer, then there is something horribly off with your understanding of the qb position.  I wouldn’t care if Andy Reid, Peyton Manning, and Bill Belichick all said great things about him.  There is something wrong with every stat and every individual that can even contemplate moving forward with him as a starting qb.

1 hour ago, AngryBird said:

I’ve seen enough of the Lamar Jackson and Mike Vick experiments to know they don’t work in the playoffs so I’m with you. 

You would think beating Vick and losing with Vick in the playoffs multiple times people would realize this. We witnessed first hand what happens to these QBs come playoff time and still..... 

Good thing they are comparing him to Josh Allen now! So we don't have to worry about Hurts becoming the next Vick ! 🤣🤣🙄

12 hours ago, eagle45 said:

I don’t care if someone pulls a stat from the gold standard stat archive that states Hurts actually threw for 4,500 yards and 50 TDs this year and we were all counting wrong.

We need a Declaration of Independence from watching Jalen Hurts.  "We hold these truths to be self evident.”  Jalen Hurts is a horrible passer.  If he has "progressed” and "improved,” he is still WELL within the category of horrible passer.  

When the temperature improves from -40 to -30 degrees, it doesn’t prevent someone from freezing to death.

If it is not self evident to you that Hurts is a very bad passer, then there is something horribly off with your understanding of the qb position.  I wouldn’t care if Andy Reid, Peyton Manning, and Bill Belichick all said great things about him.  There is something wrong with every stat and every individual that can even contemplate moving forward with him as a starting qb.

In other words, it doesn't matter who says what, It doesn't matter what actually happens statistically, It doesn't matter what grade a person might give him on his performance ... You have determined for all of us that he has the lowest grade possible and there is something wrong with anybody that doesn't agree with you. Got it. Your opinion > truth. 

People say Eagles fans are hard to please but we'll prove that wrong once Howie drafts a guy who goes for 4500 at 67% 35 TD's and 10 picks while never leaving the pocket his rookie year.

7 minutes ago, Cochis_Calhoun said:

People say Eagles fans are hard to please but we'll prove that wrong once Howie drafts a guy who goes for 4500 at 67% 35 TD's and 10 picks while never leaving the pocket his rookie year.

This was his 2nd season. He's not a rookie or almost a rookie or like a rookie. He's a 2nd year player.

19 minutes ago, Mike030270 said:

This was his 2nd season. He's not a rookie or almost a rookie or like a rookie. He's a 2nd year player.

'This dude played 4 games in a dead season last year so he was a Vet coming in, m'fer should be all pro by now or it's physically impossible his game will develop further, there are literally no examples of QB's developing from year 2 to 3 in the history of the League'

I find the absolute definitive no 'he's crap and he's never going to be good enough' from the NO HURTS CLUB evangelists baffling and tiring.

Maybe Hurts flames out and we go 3-14 next year, maybe the light flicks on and it all suddenly clicks and it's like he's seeing the field in slow mo and he lights it up, or maybe he's just a low risk bridge who doesn't turn it over a lot for a couple of duff ~.500 years while we develop a mid round project, or wait for a lower risk solution than reaching for the dross in this years class or pissing money up the wall to trade for a Vet while the rest of the roster goes to crap. I don't know what he can be, but better qualified football minds than mine say he's the QB next year at the moment, maybe it's time for the board to accept that until after the draft at least.

2 hours ago, brkmsn said:

In other words, it doesn't matter who says what, It doesn't matter what actually happens statistically, It doesn't matter what grade a person might give him on his performance ... You have determined for all of us that he has the lowest grade possible and there is something wrong with anybody that doesn't agree with you. Got it. Your opinion > truth. 

Yes.  There is something wrong with anybody that doesn’t agree with this.

1 hour ago, Cochis_Calhoun said:

'This dude played 4 games in a dead season last year so he was a Vet coming in, m'fer should be all pro by now or it's physically impossible his game will develop further, there are literally no examples of QB's developing from year 2 to 3 in the history of the League'

I find the absolute definitive no 'he's crap and he's never going to be good enough' from the NO HURTS CLUB evangelists baffling and tiring.

Maybe Hurts flames out and we go 3-14 next year, maybe the light flicks on and it all suddenly clicks and it's like he's seeing the field in slow mo and he lights it up, or maybe he's just a low risk bridge who doesn't turn it over a lot for a couple of duff ~.500 years while we develop a mid round project, or wait for a lower risk solution than reaching for the dross in this years class or pissing money up the wall to trade for a Vet while the rest of the roster goes to crap. I don't know what he can be, but better qualified football minds than mine say he's the QB next year at the moment, maybe it's time for the board to accept that until after the draft at least.

He had 2 offseasons. Rookies don't have that. He was a 2nd year player. He'll be a 3rd year player in the upcoming season. I think they should roll with Minshew for the season. He's cheaper and a better passer. If they decide to go with Hurts for another season then I'll root for him in games because he's an Eagle. I'll also complain when he Fs up

7 hours ago, brkmsn said:

In other words, it doesn't matter who says what, It doesn't matter what actually happens statistically, It doesn't matter what grade a person might give him on his performance ... You have determined for all of us that he has the lowest grade possible and there is something wrong with anybody that doesn't agree with you. Got it. Your opinion > truth. 

 

4 hours ago, Cochis_Calhoun said:

'This dude played 4 games in a dead season last year so he was a Vet coming in, m'fer should be all pro by now or it's physically impossible his game will develop further, there are literally no examples of QB's developing from year 2 to 3 in the history of the League'

I find the absolute definitive no 'he's crap and he's never going to be good enough' from the NO HURTS CLUB evangelists baffling and tiring.

Maybe Hurts flames out and we go 3-14 next year, maybe the light flicks on and it all suddenly clicks and it's like he's seeing the field in slow mo and he lights it up, or maybe he's just a low risk bridge who doesn't turn it over a lot for a couple of duff ~.500 years while we develop a mid round project, or wait for a lower risk solution than reaching for the dross in this years class or pissing money up the wall to trade for a Vet while the rest of the roster goes to crap. I don't know what he can be, but better qualified football minds than mine say he's the QB next year at the moment, maybe it's time for the board to accept that until after the draft at least.

The funny thing is the complete conviction that they are right and the refusal to consider anything that suggests that Hurts might be at least okay. 

They also have the belief that the Eagles think like they do. While I would put nothing past Howie, I would be shocked if the Eagles traded for a QB, signed a mediocre free agent QB, or drafted a QB in the first round. It just doesn't make sense. Maybe the Eagles do like Pickett, but he's probably going to go comfortably top 10 in such a weak draft. The others may well not make it to where Hurts is already.

The Eagles took him with the second. It was Howie with Lurie's approval. Not a former GM or owner. He had a solid first season as a starter. They would be crazy not to see what he can do in 2022, finally in the same system for consecutive years, unless there is a clear upgrade available which would not cripple the rest of the team. There isn't.

So in all probability Hurts will be the guy for 2022. And we will be back to "Bench Hurts" polls every time he throws a bad pass. I personally want to see how it plays out. As you say, I would not be surprised about any outcome, regression, progression or stagnation. 

22 hours ago, ManchesterEagle said:

The Eagles took him with the second. It was Howie with Lurie's approval.

Did he have Lurie's approval to take him? By that, I mean, was Lurie consulted and said "Ok, take him". It wouldn't surprise me, and might actually surprise me more if he wasn't involved on some (of not every) level. 

I'd really rather have a GM that drafts based on his and his scouting team's evaluations, along with the coach. I'd much rather the owner stay out of it. 

39 minutes ago, VaBeach_Eagle said:

Did he have Lurie's approval to take him? By that, I mean, was Lurie consulted and said "Ok, take him". It wouldn't surprise me, and might actually surprise me more if he wasn't involved on some (of not every) level. 

I'd really rather have a GM that drafts based on his and his scouting team's evaluations, along with the coach. I'd much rather the owner stay out of it. 

I'm speculating on reports, but it certainly appears he gets involved more than he should. There was certainly a report that said Lurie had instructed Howie to build around Hurts before this last season.

When the statistician starts off by saying I skewed the stats to fit my narrative and you are not allowed to have an opinion outside how I skewed my stats but expects discourse?

 

Here's the only stat that matters 0-1. I made the zero bigger to emphasize that we were never close in that game and never relevant in that game until the other team went into prevent zone.

On 2/8/2022 at 4:27 PM, NOTW said:

But there's only a 50/50 chance of that.

You’re partially right

On 1/31/2022 at 4:49 PM, Thrive said:

 

Introduction: This thread isn’t intended to be the usual back and forth on how folks feel about Jalen or the Eagles QB situation (otherwise, it should get moved to that other crap show of a thread) but rather a statistical look at his performance versus his peers around the league. However, in the spirit of full disclosure, I came into this review already impressed by Jalen’s growth and optimistic about what the future with him can hold; admittedly, that will inevitably influence how I interpret the statistics. Ultimately, I want this to be an educative experience for me so I am open to other thoughtful interpretations of these numbers.

Sources: I primarily relied on pro football reference (https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2021/passing_advanced.htm). Why? Because the statistics people generally use to ascertain quarterback play has historically been the passer rating and completion percentage. Although helpful in understanding the overall efficiency of a passing offense, this is not the 1980s and 1990s; additional data is now available publicly (with even more advanced stats available privately to teams) that provide more insight as to quarterback-specific performance. Therefore, to the extent these stats are not persuasive to you, feel free to include other websites that have additional/complementary advanced statistics.

Passer Rating: As I alluded to above, passer rating has been the standard the media/fans have used historically to determine quarterback play (QBR is a more recent advent but I don’t believe it actually provides significantly more (if any) insight).  Here’s Jalen’s passer rating, when compared to his peers:

• Jalen: 87.2 (21st in the NFL) – Last Year this was 77.6 (I stopped counting after it was clear that at least 30+ QBs who started at least a similar amount of games had higher passer ratings)
• Notable names with higher Passer Rating: Davis Mills, Tua, Carson Wentz.

Completion Percentage: Similar to Passer Rating, Completion Percentage is a team based statistic but I included for thoroughness sakes.

• Jalen: 61.3% (25th when compared to QBs who started a similar amount of games or more) – Last Year this was 52% (effectively the worst in football)
• Notable names with higher Completion Percentages (most of the league)

These prior stats are helpful but I take the position that those stats are more indicative of the function/efficiency of any offense, rather than the actual play from the quarter back position. The fact that the passer rating and the completion percentage both went up by roughly the same amount indicates to me that the offense in general improved under Hurts year over year but the passing offense (which includes Hurts) is still remedial. The question is why.

Bad Throw Percentage: I want to know how many of Jalen’s throws were "bad” when compared to his peers. This, like many of the subsequently following stats are more subjective by their nature but I believe provide additional insight.

• Jalen: 14.0% (3rd lowest in the league) – Last Year 26.7% (if we extrapolated this across an entire season, worst in football – like really bad. This stat at PFR has been kept since 2018 and no QB starting 15+ games had a percentage this high)
• Names with lower bad throw percentages: Joe Burrow and Jimmy Garrappolo.

On Target Percentage: Similar to bad throws, I want to know how many of Jalen’s throws were "on target” when compared to his peers (this presumably cuts out what is determined to be drops).

• Jalen: 78.2% (8th highest in the league) – Last Year 60.7% (this was abominable and beyond the worst in football – if this was extrapolated over an entire season, it would have been the worst since this stat has been kept on PFR (2019))
•  Names with higher On Target Percentages: Joe Burrow, Jimmy G, Justin Herbert, Jared Goff, Tua (!), Kyler Murray and Ryan Tannehill

These statistics seemingly hint at a QB who is making good decisions and is accurate. How then does this reconcile with such a low completion percentage?

• Drops: Jalen had the 8th highest drop percentage (5.4%) – last year his drop percentage was 3.0% (Didn’t see this coming. If this was extrapolated over a season, he would have had the second lowest in football)
  • Notable QBs with higher drop percentages: Justin Herbert (by the way, when you have some time, check out this young man’s advanced stats, what an absolute stud/freak show) and Josh Allen. I came away even more amazed by how good these two have been.
• Spikes/Throw-away/Batted Passes: 20.9% of Jalen’s total incompletions came from these passes – last year this was 25.3% (another insane statistic)
  • I wasn’t going to go through the QBs in the league to determine where these numbers ranked (I assume they were abominable in 2020 and still high in 2021) but for reference: Tom Brady (9.8%),Justin Herbert (13.9%),Josh Allen (20.2%) and Joe Burrow (14.2%)

These statistics hint at a dysfunctional offense and a QB who is still not entirely proficient at the quarterback position. They, however, do not denote an inaccurate quarterback.

Conclusion: Regardless of position of thought on Jalen as a quarterback, these statistics show a quarterback that made significant improvement year over year (in fact, doing a quick cursory review, I have not seen a QB generally make these types of improvements year over year – however maybe someone can dig into this further). I will say, however, that I was frankly shocked at how bad his numbers last year were. It also likely provides color as to why the Eagles were so quick to name him the starter for 2022 – his improvements jumped off the page. The question the Eagles have to answer is if 2021 was an anomaly for Jalen or indicative of future growth. 

Curious for folks to provide additional statistics that dig deeper into what we saw this past year.

I’ll say it if other haven’t - thanks for doing the work on this. 

Nobody needs advanced stats to show if a player sucks. He is either great, good, mediocre or sucks. Hurts played a LOT of poor teams and still didn't look good. Once he hurt his ankle and couldn't run well, we all saw he can't read defenses or pass worth a damn. No advanced metrics needed- all that's needed is open eyes that can see what's in front of them.

3 hours ago, Talonblood said:

Nobody needs advanced stats to show if a player sucks. He is either great, good, mediocre or sucks. Hurts played a LOT of poor teams and still didn't look good. Once he hurt his ankle and couldn't run well, we all saw he can't read defenses or pass worth a damn. No advanced metrics needed- all that's needed is open eyes that can see what's in front of them.

Exactly, I have the best int record in the league and have never made a poor NFL decision in my life. 

Quote

These statistics seemingly hint at a QB who is making good decisions and is accurate. How then does this reconcile with such a low completion percentage?

That is where limitations with stats come into play. What it shows is that he makes good decisions if he has thrown it. It doesn’t show if he made a good decision if he decided not to throw it and run, nor does it say if he made the right decision to throw it to the best receiver possible.

To put it plain and simply, he could be holding onto the ball unless his sole read is wide open. 

2 hours ago, mihailo said:

Exactly, I have the best int record in the league and have never made a poor NFL decision in my life. 

That is where limitations with stats come into play. What it shows is that he makes good decisions if he has thrown it. It doesn’t show if he made a good decision if he decided not to throw it and run, nor does it say if he made the right decision to throw it to the best receiver possible.

To put it plain and simply, he could be holding onto the ball unless his sole read is wide open. 

Analytics gets some geeks a job. 😂 You don't need analytics to see someone sucks at their position. 

It doesn't take rocket appliances or advanced anything to clearly see from game 1 that Hurts is not capable of competing as an actual QB at the NFL level for anything more than spot relief (I doubt even that).

On 2/18/2022 at 5:48 PM, mihailo said:

Exactly, I have the best int record in the league and have never made a poor NFL decision in my life. 

You've also never dated a super model which means your limitations will prevent that from ever happening in the future.

4 hours ago, brkmsn said:

You've also never dated a super model which means your limitations will prevent that from ever happening in the future.

How would you know if I have or haven't? 

Hurts may improve a little bit over time but his ceiling isn't much higher and I just don't see him ever being great.  I don't see him putting the team on his back and leading them to a championship.  

 

Hurts is a talented running back, not a full-time  QB. Let’s run some wildcat formations with him. That might work for two or three games before the league catches on.

2 hours ago, NOTW said:

Hurts may improve a little bit over time but his ceiling isn't much higher and I just don't see him ever being great.  I don't see him putting the team on his back and leading them to a championship.  

 

I've stated this as well and fully agree with you.  He just doesn't have a high enough ceiling to be a starting QB in the NFL who is going to win your playoff games past the first round.  For now we still play in a crappy division, though with the NYG hiring a new GM and HC/staff they should improve and if the Wankers (Commanders is such a sheety name) ever get an actual QB and add a couple solid DBs then they'll be a much better team as well.  Maybe for now, with one of the best OLs in the League and if we improve the D via FA and draft, we can finish 9-8 or 10-7 and earn another 6th/7th seed WC spot, maybe even manage to win that first playoff game this time, but after that when we have to play the really good teams we're toast with Hurts at QB.

Hell, I'm curious if other DCs just don't look at what TB did and load up the box to neutralize our run game and force Hurts to beat us with his arm and processing.  Anyone else remember "He can't read!"?  They took away our running game best they could and the short passing game and dared Hurts to beat them intermediate and deep and he couldn't do it.  He couldn't even pull the trigger when he had Watkins clearly coming open for a deep TD and he was looking right at it and froze. 

All the weaknesses in his draft scouting report are still evident today.  He will be mostly what he is now and his improvements will only be marginal at best.  He could get a little better than what we see now, but that still won't be good enough.  I don't get how anyone looks at him and thinks he has a high ceiling.  Too many flaws to his game and not enough good QB skills (and please take out the hard worker, great guy, team leader stuff because that doesn't help him to read a D and anticipate a throw or keep from leaving a mostly clean pocket too early and run into pressure).  And BTW, him and Minshew are close to the same age and have started and played in close to the same amount of games, so if Hurts can still improve then why can't Minshew?  How come Minshew is a finished product and we all know what he is, but for some reason Hurts can still improve?

 

4 hours ago, Green_Guinness said:

Hell, I'm curious if other DCs just don't look at what TB did and load up the box to neutralize our run game and force Hurts to beat us with his arm and processing.  Anyone else remember "He can't read!"?  They took away our running game best they could and the short passing game and dared Hurts to beat them intermediate and deep and he couldn't do it.  He couldn't even pull the trigger when he had Watkins clearly coming open for a deep TD and he was looking right at it and froze. 

Literally every QB like Hurts has been shut down doing this. 

On 2/19/2022 at 5:16 PM, Wentz_Era said:

It doesn't take rocket appliances or advanced anything to clearly see from game 1 that Hurts is not capable of competing as an actual QB at the NFL level for anything more than spot relief (I doubt even that).

A guy with his username as "Wentz Era” is not qualified to comment on QBs.