An Advanced Statistical Look at the Eagles Passing Offense

[Thrive]

Introduction: This thread isn’t intended to be the usual back and forth on how folks feel about Jalen or the Eagles QB situation (otherwise, it should get moved to that other crap show of a thread) but rather a statistical look at his performance versus his peers around the league. However, in the spirit of full disclosure, I came into this review already impressed by Jalen’s growth and optimistic about what the future with him can hold; admittedly, that will inevitably influence how I interpret the statistics. Ultimately, I want this to be an educative experience for me so I am open to other thoughtful interpretations of these numbers.

Sources: I primarily relied on pro football reference (https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2021/passing_advanced.htm). Why? Because the statistics people generally use to ascertain quarterback play has historically been the passer rating and completion percentage. Although helpful in understanding the overall efficiency of a passing offense, this is not the 1980s and 1990s; additional data is now available publicly (with even more advanced stats available privately to teams) that provide more insight as to quarterback-specific performance. Therefore, to the extent these stats are not persuasive to you, feel free to include other websites that have additional/complementary advanced statistics.

Passer Rating: As I alluded to above, passer rating has been the standard the media/fans have used historically to determine quarterback play (QBR is a more recent advent but I don’t believe it actually provides significantly more (if any) insight).  Here’s Jalen’s passer rating, when compared to his peers:

• Jalen: 87.2 (21st in the NFL) – Last Year this was 77.6 (I stopped counting after it was clear that at least 30+ QBs who started at least a similar amount of games had higher passer ratings)
• Notable names with higher Passer Rating: Davis Mills, Tua, Carson Wentz.

Completion Percentage: Similar to Passer Rating, Completion Percentage is a team based statistic but I included for thoroughness sakes.

• Jalen: 61.3% (25th when compared to QBs who started a similar amount of games or more) – Last Year this was 52% (effectively the worst in football)
• Notable names with higher Completion Percentages (most of the league)

These prior stats are helpful but I take the position that those stats are more indicative of the function/efficiency of any offense, rather than the actual play from the quarter back position. The fact that the passer rating and the completion percentage both went up by roughly the same amount indicates to me that the offense in general improved under Hurts year over year but the passing offense (which includes Hurts) is still remedial. The question is why.

Bad Throw Percentage: I want to know how many of Jalen’s throws were "bad” when compared to his peers. This, like many of the subsequently following stats are more subjective by their nature but I believe provide additional insight.

• Jalen: 14.0% (3rd lowest in the league) – Last Year 26.7% (if we extrapolated this across an entire season, worst in football – like really bad. This stat at PFR has been kept since 2018 and no QB starting 15+ games had a percentage this high)
• Names with lower bad throw percentages: Joe Burrow and Jimmy Garrappolo.

On Target Percentage: Similar to bad throws, I want to know how many of Jalen’s throws were "on target” when compared to his peers (this presumably cuts out what is determined to be drops).

• Jalen: 78.2% (8th highest in the league) – Last Year 60.7% (this was abominable and beyond the worst in football – if this was extrapolated over an entire season, it would have been the worst since this stat has been kept on PFR (2019))
•  Names with higher On Target Percentages: Joe Burrow, Jimmy G, Justin Herbert, Jared Goff, Tua (!), Kyler Murray and Ryan Tannehill

These statistics seemingly hint at a QB who is making good decisions and is accurate. How then does this reconcile with such a low completion percentage?

• Drops: Jalen had the 8th highest drop percentage (5.4%) – last year his drop percentage was 3.0% (Didn’t see this coming. If this was extrapolated over a season, he would have had the second lowest in football)
  • Notable QBs with higher drop percentages: Justin Herbert (by the way, when you have some time, check out this young man’s advanced stats, what an absolute stud/freak show) and Josh Allen. I came away even more amazed by how good these two have been.
• Spikes/Throw-away/Batted Passes: 20.9% of Jalen’s total incompletions came from these passes – last year this was 25.3% (another insane statistic)
  • I wasn’t going to go through the QBs in the league to determine where these numbers ranked (I assume they were abominable in 2020 and still high in 2021) but for reference: Tom Brady (9.8%),Justin Herbert (13.9%),Josh Allen (20.2%) and Joe Burrow (14.2%)

These statistics hint at a dysfunctional offense and a QB who is still not entirely proficient at the quarterback position. They, however, do not denote an inaccurate quarterback.

Conclusion: Regardless of position of thought on Jalen as a quarterback, these statistics show a quarterback that made significant improvement year over year (in fact, doing a quick cursory review, I have not seen a QB generally make these types of improvements year over year – however maybe someone can dig into this further). I will say, however, that I was frankly shocked at how bad his numbers last year were. It also likely provides color as to why the Eagles were so quick to name him the starter for 2022 – his improvements jumped off the page. The question the Eagles have to answer is if 2021 was an anomaly for Jalen or indicative of future growth. 

Curious for folks to provide additional statistics that dig deeper into what we saw this past year.

[Guest]

You can come up with all the made up metrics you want, he still is not very good, and did not improve, in fact he regressed over the second half of the season.

@Moderator6 looks like a merge to any number of Hurts threads is in order.

[Thrive]

2 minutes ago, downundermike said:

You can come up with all the made up metrics you want, he still is not very good, and did not improve, in fact he regressed over the second half of the season.

Thanks. We have another thread for your feelings. Here I’m curious if we can dig up different statistics that can give us deeper insight. 

[Guest]

6 minutes ago, Thrive said:

Thanks. We have another thread for your feelings. Here I’m curious if we can dig up different statistics that can give us deeper insight. 

1st half of the season

10 TD's v 4 Int's

2nd half of the season

6 TD's v 5 int's.

 

[Thrive]

3 minutes ago, downundermike said:

1st half of the season

10 TD's v 4 Int's

2nd half of the season

6 TD's v 5 int's.

 

This is helpful but those numbers are already subsumed in passer rating, which is more of a team statistic IMO. However, I’d be curious to know what his bad throw percentage was in the first half of the season versus the second. 

[RememberTheKoy]

He's shown a ton of improvement.  I think he certainly has a chance to make a significant leap in his 3rd year, hopefully he gets that chance here.  

[Guest]

11 minutes ago, Thrive said:

This is helpful but those numbers are already subsumed in passer rating, which is more of a team statistic IMO. However, I’d be curious to know what his bad throw percentage was in the first half of the season versus the second. 

Statistics like bad throw percentage are an opinion.  Kind of like PFF saying player X did not give up a sack, and you can easily find footage of the player giving up a sack.  

12 minutes ago, RememberTheKoy said:

He's shown a ton of improvement.  I think he certainly has a chance to make a significant leap in his 3rd year, hopefully he gets that chance here.  

He will not improve enough to be a playoff winning QB, and I hope he gets to prove me right somewhere else.

[UK_EaglesFan89]

For me the right question is: Can Hurts improve enough to be a roughly top 10 QB? If the answer is yes then great and let's roll with him. If the answer is no then there's a lot of work to be done by this team. 

Whether Hurts can improve is not the right question. He seems like a good kid who's willing to work and listen so he's going to improve. Some improvement isn't enough though. 

[BayAreaLennie]

1 hour ago, Thrive said:

Introduction: This thread isn’t intended to be the usual back and forth on how folks feel about Jalen or the Eagles QB situation (otherwise, it should get moved to that other crap show of a thread) but rather a statistical look at his performance versus his peers around the league.

Heh, well that plea worked until ... ummm ... the first reply.

[Bwestbrook36]

Must be new around here

[Dweedlebug]

Looking at last years numbers and using them for any kind of comparison or evaluation is entirely pointless.  We have almost all second string players on the field against opponents number 1's.  Of course all the stats are going to be abysmal.  They are essentially useless numbers for anything.

[EaglesAddict]

Important things that are difficult, if not impossible, to discern from stats...

Decision making - Did he make the right read?  Did he throw to his best option on a given play?  Did he leave the pocket too soon?

Context - Game situations, are his statistical improvements bloated by "garbage time" when the defenses are playing softer?  Quality of opponent?  How did he fare while the games were in a competitive state?

I don't think anyone disputes that Hurts improved from last year to this year.  The dispute comes from, based on what we've seen with our own eyes, can he improve enough to be a championship QB?  Is he, or can he be, "the guy"?

My answer is purely based on watching him: He can be "good enough" to get you to the playoffs and he will need to be surrounded by considerable talent on both sides of the ball to have a chance at getting to the Super Bowl.  It is highly, very highly, unlikely that he will ever be able to stand toe-to-toe in a game similar to what we saw in the Bills/Chiefs game. He is slow to process once the ball is snapped and that will likely never improve much beyond what we see now in this regard...which will always limit his ceiling. 

We would be lucky if Hurts could improve to the Dak Prescott level.

 

[Aerolithe_Lion]

Passer rating is the worst stat in all of sports. It’s so unbelievably misleading due to its complete disregard for context. QBR at least attempts to rectify that

[kentwo]

He made improvement, but even Cosell eluded that it was not "significant" enough to make him an effective passer.

Is there a stat for how many open receivers he missed? Or how many throws he held on to that were supposed to be made? How many times he left the pocket early?

Completion and targeting stats are great, but if he is leaving plays on the field it is not enough to have a high completion rate yet low passing productivity.

That is the main area for improvement that many of us need to see. Can he throw with anticipation to compensate for his arm strength? Can he be efficient with his reads and not leave plays on the field? Can he progress and become a passing threat so the offense can be multidimensional to prevent teams from focusing on the run?

It is hard to accept that he can as he has not progressed in these areas for years and brain research shows that it is really difficult to make behavioral changes that require a split second decision after the early 20's.

[NOTW]

20 hours ago, BayAreaLennie said:

Heh, well that plea worked until ... ummm ... the first reply.

  The topics always devolve into the same arguments.  Just wait til someone brings up former QBs (not naming names )

[NOTW]

@Thrive  Nice job trying to look at actual stats and metrics for measurement.  Everyone knows that stats can be misleading, can be cherry picked for a narrative and there is often situational circumstances to consider.  

For example, everyone knows that they were more pass heavy at first and then finally started relying more heavily on the run.  So more running plays takes the passes away, and they were limiting his passes.  Also, since he's basically a one-read QB then tucks and runs, the numbers might not reflect that.  You would want to really get advanced and include snap count, pass vs run plays and if possible include metrics like time he held the football before throwing it and others to fill in the gaps.

Stats are important.  But then there is the film study that the experts do and we've seen clips of analysts breaking down Hurts missing open receivers while he was tucking the ball to run.  That won't reflect when you're looking at a metric like passes on target...he never attempted a pass, but a receiver was wide open.  

So it's a good starting point, and part of the picture to look at these metrics.  There is a case for areas where he's improved.

I think my takeaway is that he can continue to make small improvements but not enough to be a top QB in the league.  He doesn't make the reads, isn't patient (they have a very strong O line), doesn't see open receivers, isn't accurate enough.  I don't see him being a guy like we're seeing in a lot of these playoff games.  I don't see him putting the team on his back in a 2 minute drill and slicing a defense apart.  I think he's closer to his ceiling now than some want to admit, at the same time he's not the garbage QB others make him out to be.  He's good, he's won games, he's made some passing plays and isn't "just a running QB" but he doesn't look like he'll be a top passer in the league.  Dual threat is great, but you've got to be able to read defenses and deliver the ball with accuracy to the playmakers.

[time2rock]

DUM does not approve of this thread.  Shocker. 

 

[Infam]

5 hours ago, EaglesAddict said:

We would be lucky if Hurts could improve to the Dak Prescott level.

Eh, you mean ‘one and done’ Dak stinking it up? He looked poor all December and took the first out he found as usual. What is it with all the love for the Cowboys here? I’ll never understand the amount of credit you guys give those losers.

[NOTW]

1 hour ago, Infam said:

Eh, you mean ‘one and done’ Dak stinking it up? He looked poor all December and took the first out he found as usual. What is it with all the love for the Cowboys here? I’ll never understand the amount of credit you guys give those losers.

It reads to me like he's saying Hurts' ceiling is only as good as Dak.  Meaning, he's not good.  He even said he won't ever be good enough to compete with the other playoff QBs.

[Guest]

1 hour ago, time2rock said:

DUM does not approve of this thread.  Shocker. 

 

Finding stats to fit a narrative that is false.  Eagles will have a new QB by the end of draft weekend.

[Traveler Vic]

On 1/31/2022 at 2:57 PM, UK_EaglesFan89 said:

For me the right question is: Can Hurts improve enough to be a roughly top 10 QB? If the answer is yes then great and let's roll with him. If the answer is no then there's a lot of work to be done by this team. 

Whether Hurts can improve is not the right question. He seems like a good kid who's willing to work and listen so he's going to improve. Some improvement isn't enough though. 

2022 will be the judge. I expect him to improve.

[Traveler Vic]

4 hours ago, NOTW said:

@Thrive  Nice job trying to look at actual stats and metrics for measurement.  Everyone knows that stats can be misleading, can be cherry picked for a narrative and there is often situational circumstances to consider.  

For example, everyone knows that they were more pass heavy at first and then finally started relying more heavily on the run.  So more running plays takes the passes away, and they were limiting his passes.  Also, since he's basically a one-read QB then tucks and runs, the numbers might not reflect that.  You would want to really get advanced and include snap count, pass vs run plays and if possible include metrics like time he held the football before throwing it and others to fill in the gaps.

Stats are important.  But then there is the film study that the experts do and we've seen clips of analysts breaking down Hurts missing open receivers while he was tucking the ball to run.  That won't reflect when you're looking at a metric like passes on target...he never attempted a pass, but a receiver was wide open.  

So it's a good starting point, and part of the picture to look at these metrics.  There is a case for areas where he's improved.

I think my takeaway is that he can continue to make small improvements but not enough to be a top QB in the league.  He doesn't make the reads, isn't patient (they have a very strong O line), doesn't see open receivers, isn't accurate enough.  I don't see him being a guy like we're seeing in a lot of these playoff games.  I don't see him putting the team on his back in a 2 minute drill and slicing a defense apart.  I think he's closer to his ceiling now than some want to admit, at the same time he's not the garbage QB others make him out to be.  He's good, he's won games, he's made some passing plays and isn't "just a running QB" but he doesn't look like he'll be a top passer in the league.  Dual threat is great, but you've got to be able to read defenses and deliver the ball with accuracy to the playmakers.

He needs at least a full offseason in the same system..to achieve, The goals that will answer your criticism. If you look at the stability as criteria, Hurts had very little of it. Constantly changing offensive coordinators. Stability is Huge.

[Moderator6]

On 1/31/2022 at 3:59 PM, downundermike said:

You can come up with all the made up metrics you want, he still is not very good, and did not improve, in fact he regressed over the second half of the season.

@Moderator6 looks like a merge to any number of Hurts threads is in order.

 

On 1/31/2022 at 4:03 PM, Thrive said:

Thanks. We have another thread for your feelings. Here I’m curious if we can dig up different statistics that can give us deeper insight. 

Challenge: 

A topic about statistics that doesn't devolve into the same arguments in the Hurts topic.

It will be like:

 

 

[Mike030270]

2 hours ago, Traveler Vic said:

He needs at least a full offseason in the same system..to achieve, The goals that will answer your criticism. If you look at the stability as criteria, Hurts had very little of it. Constantly changing offensive coordinators. Stability is Huge.

Constantly changing offensive coordinators? It only happened once. They also hired a QB coach specifically for him that was supposed to help and he barely improved

[Aspiritfall]

I'm not really for or against Hurts... I wouldn't say he's terrible but he's definitely nothing special... I think he is a hard worker and a good person but as a qb he definitely has room for improvement... I would rather us stick with him for 1 more year and use our picks to build a good team and then look for a qb if he doesn't show any improvement at all... That being said and not to make excuses for him but outside of Goeddert and Smith who is a rookie who exactly were out there making plays for him? Jjaw is terrible Reagor is worse than terrible... Ward and Watkins are serviceable if that and thats really only because we have nobody behind them either... Even our rb group regardless of how well we ran the ball second half of the season isn't all that great... I'm definitely not as high on Sanders as some I think he's replaceable... Howard is decent when he can actually get on the field... Gainwell started off looking solid and dropped off... Scott I like for his role... This offense is pretty void of talent at skill positions... If you disagree with anything I said thats fine but its the truth