2021 CAP Situation

[Guest]

Apparently we’re $50 million over the CAP in 2021 season

they got approximately $23 million that will carry over but we’re still $27 over.

only one other team is over cap in 2021: Saints but only 9 mil over 

Howies back loaded contracts are catching up with us 

[20dawk4life]

[EaglePhan1986]

9 minutes ago, Matt03785 said:

Apparently we’re $50 million over the CAP in 2021 season

they got approximately $23 million that will carry over but we’re still $27 over.

only one other team is over cap in 2021: Saints but only 9 mil over 

Howies back loaded contracts are catching up with us 

That’s the last thing I’m worried about right now. Malik Jackson is at least one guy who will get cut to free up space. 
 

They’ll figure it out. I trust Howie with the cap more than anything. 

[EagleTen]

If there’s one thing Howie is a league leader in, it’s cap manipulation...

I don’t have any concerns with Howie being able to sort that $50m deficit, but what I am concerned about is, the lack of flexibility it gives the Eagles in FA, both in the remainder of this year, and next year...

I am sure that figure is largely responsible for us passing on a number of impact players this offseason already...

[Mandrake_1971]

I believe Howie has a plan with the current cap $ / how it was projected.  Was reported today (by Adam Schefter?) because of COVID-19, cap next year may decrease $30 to $80M - granted some of this is worst case and may never happen - that may be where I think we may run  into issues.

[FastFreddie]

The most Howie will be able to "carry over" is not the current number of $23 million. Take at least $9m of that away to sign the rookies.

But say what you want about Howie's ability to draft or his talent evaluation in general... the cap should be the least of our concerns.

[paco]

1 hour ago, Matt03785 said:

Apparently we’re $50 million over the CAP in 2021 season

they got approximately $23 million that will carry over but we’re still $27 over.

only one other team is over cap in 2021: Saints but only 9 mil over 

Howies back loaded contracts are catching up with us 

FWIW, that is before the Marquis Goowin restructure.  He would have had a 7 million hit next year plus is about 2 million less this year.  So that brings that $50 million number down to $41 million.

 

But yes, Howie is a** at the cap.  He's playing with fire, counting on the cap rising at a certain clip each year.  If it doesnt, he is screwed (think 2006 R-words).   And BTW... if they don't play in front of a crowd, thats $4 million lost in ticket sales and $1-2 million in consessions that would have gone to the cap for each team.

 

I did the math and broke it down on the old board:

On 4/10/2020 at 12:11 PM, paco said:

Total what if scenario.  What if the 2020 season is played, just in empty stadiums.  Would this cause a ripple effect and force the 2021 salary cap to experience the first decrease in NFL history?

 

Why could this be a possible outcome?  The cap is dictated by revenue.  That includes everything from TV contracts to jersey sales. And a big revenue generator is ticket sales.

 

How big?  Well, in 2019 recorded attendance was 16,894,856.  If you go VERY conservative and estimate that the average ticket cost was $150, that means ticket sales accounted for  $2,534,228,400.00 of league revenue.

 

So if COVID-19 is still a thing and they decide to play the season in empty stadiums\fields, that could cause the first decrease in salary cap.

 

Flame away

 

On 4/10/2020 at 1:47 PM, VaBeach_Eagle said:

As I understand it, only the 'profit' from ticket sales are included in the formula for the salary cap. Surely not 100% of ticket sales are counted as 'profit'. There's operating expenses and stadium salaries and field maintenance and so forth. Not to mention whatever money is owed on the stadium itself (if it isn't 100% paid for yet). So how much of the ticket sales are counted as profit?

 

On 4/10/2020 at 1:59 PM, VaBeach_Eagle said:

I found this article from last September, which speaks about NFL revenue:

Quote

https://www.investopedia.com/articles/personal-finance/062515/how-nfl-makes-money.asp

How The NFL Makes Money

TV is the NFL's golden goose, but gambling and streaming show potential.

 

By Jakob Eckstein

Updated Sep 24, 2019

By any measure, the NFL is the most successful American sports league in history. For all the talk of North America’s "Big Three” sports (or for hockey fans, Big Four), the reality is that there’s pro football, and then there’s everything else. 

 

In 2015, in response to mounting criticism for its quickly growing revenue, the NFL gave up the tax-exempt status it had held since 1947. The league now exists as a trade association made up of and financed by its 32 member teams. 31 of these teams are owned individually, only the Green Bay Packers retains its non-profit status. The NFL earns the lion’s share of its money with TV deals. According to Statista, more than 50% of the league’s revenue came from TV deals in 2015, a year when the league made about $12 billion. Other revenue streams include ticket sales, merchandising, and licensing rights and corporate sponsorships.

 

Despite steadily declining viewership since 2015 and recent controversies about concussions and the national anthem, the NFL is making more money than ever. Although, due to its private status, it is impossible to know exactly how much the NFL makes; Bloomberg estimates it earned around $15 billion during the 2018 season. This is up from estimates of $14.2 billion in 2017 and $13.3 billion in 2016. And the league is showing no intentions of slowing down. Commissioner Roger Goodell has targeted $25 billion in revenue by 2027, or 6% annual growth.

 

The Business Model

The NFL groups its revenue streams into two categories: "national revenue” and "local revenue.” 

 

National revenue consists of TV deals along with merchandising and licensing deals, which are negotiated at the national level by the NFL itself. This money is then divided evenly between the 32 teams regardless of individual performance. According to the Green Bay Packers’ 2018 annual report, the NFL earned over $8.1 billion in national revenue last year, meaning each team received about $255 million in national revenue from the league.

 

Local revenue, which consists of ticket sales, concessions, and corporate sponsors, is earned by the teams themselves. In 2018, the Packers earned $196 million in local revenue, 43% of their total revenue that year, which was $455 million.

 

However, the costs of running a professional football team are high. In 2018, the Packers spent $420 million on expenses. $213 million went to players, while $208 million went to stadium upkeep, marketing, and team and administrative costs. This leaves the team an operating income of $38.5 million. According to Forbes, the Dallas Cowboys are the NFL’s richest team, with $864 million in revenue and an operating income of $365 million in 2018.

 

This is the basic structure of the NFL’s business. Here’s how it breaks down.

 

 

• The NFL gave up its tax-exempt status in 2015.
• Commissioner Roger Goodell has targeted $25 billion in revenue by 2027.
• TV deals make up over half of the NFL’s revenue.
• The Green Bay Packers are the only NFL team run as a non-profit corporation.

Massive TV deals

Football is, hands down, the most-viewed sport in the U.S. Nineteen of the 20 most-viewed TV broadcasts in U.S. history are Superbowls of various years. In season, NFL games are broadcast live in the USA on Mondays, Thursdays, and Sundays. These games are consistently the highest rated shows on TV, so media companies have shelled out big bucks for the rights to broadcast them.

 

The NFL currently has TV deals with CBS, NBC (owned by Comcast), Fox, and ESPN (owned by Disney/Hearst). In contracts that were finalized in 2011, CBS, NBC, and Fox committed to pay the NFL a total of $39.6 billion between the 2014 and 2022 seasons. The three broadcasters share rights to "Sunday Night Football,” as well as annually rotating rights to the Super Bowl. Fees payed by these networks are set to rise about 7% annually, meaning they will each be paying the NFL about $3.1 billion per year by 2022.

 

In the same year, ESPN signed a deal to pay the NFL $15.2 billion through 2021 for the rights to "Monday Night Football.”

 

In 2018, Fox signed an additional deal for $3.3 billion for exclusive rights to "Thursday Night Football,” outbidding NBC and CBS.

 

Merchandising and Licensing Deals

Although the majority of its national revenue comes from its monster TV deals, the NFL also makes money by selling companies the rights to sell items that represent the NFL. For instance, the NFL, in partnership with Nike, signed a 10-year licensing deal with online sports-retailer Fanatics in 2018. This deal makes Fanatics the exclusive manufacturer of all adult-sized, Nike-branded merchandise sold through the NFL’s online store. 

 

The value of this deal went undisclosed, but in all likelihood, it’s pennies compared to the NFL’s TV deals. According to Navigate Research, a Chicago-based firm that specializes in the evaluation of sports and entertainment marketing investments, only about 10% of the NFL’s yearly revenue comes from these deals.

 

Ticket Sales and Concessions

Although ticket sales constitute an important revenue stream for individual NFL teams, they are nonetheless relatively small compared to quickly growing revenue from TV deals (you’re probably noticing a pattern here). On average, NFL stadiums seat about 70,000 people, and games usually sell out. This doesn’t leave much opportunity for growth. The average ticket price has increased about 7% annually since the turn of the century. Tickets cost about $30 in 2000 to about $102 in 2017, but the added revenue from these increases are negligible when compared to revenue growth from TV.

 

The one thing teams can do is choose to renovate their stadiums to add more seats and concession stands. Such renovations are costly and disruptive, but usually pay off. Since 2010, the Packers spent more than $370 million gradually updating its stadium, Lambeau Field, including adding more seats. Since then, their yearly ticket revenue has jumped from $48 million to $71 million.

 

NFL teams can also use their stadiums to host non-football events, like concerts, but opportunities for revenue growth from these events have the same limitations.

 

An NFL team earned about $7 million, on average, in ticket sales from a single stadium event in 2016. About 55% of that revenue is used to pay athletes or musicians. 10% goes to general stadium administration, 5% goes to the team’s coaching staff, 5% is paid in taxes, and the remaining 8% are profit.

 

Like ticket sales, concessions are peanuts compared to TV deals. Concessions contribute only about $3-5 million to the average NFL team’s revenue, but the margins on selling food at games are extremely high. Beer and soda sold at stadiums have margins of over 90%.

 

Only 8%

The average NFL team's profit margin of ticket sales.

Corporate Sponsors

Corporate sponsors pay NFL teams to display their logos on players’ uniforms, TV transitions, merchandise, etc. In 2018, the NFL pulled in over $1.3 billion in sponsorships. The most coveted sponsorships are naming rights to NFL stadiums. According to the New York Times, the naming rights to Met Life Stadium in New York and the AT&T Stadium in Dallas are both worth $19 million a year.

 

Future Plans

TV Growth

Contrary to some claims, TV isn’t dying, at least not when it comes to football. The value of the NFL’s TV deals has skyrocketed in the last few decades; by all accounts, it will likely continue to do so. As a result, the NFL’s biggest focus for reaching its aspirational $25 billion in revenue by 2025 is continuing to secure bigger and bigger TV deals.

 

Streaming

Although TV is still king when it comes to watching football, streaming is on the rise. In 2017, Verizon signed a new $2.5 billion deal with the NFL for five years of streaming rights. This is twice the size of the deal Verizon had with the NFL before. In April of 2018, Amazon signed a comparatively small deal of $130 million for two years of streaming rights. If the growth of TV deals in the last few decades are any indication, these deals will also continue to grow rapidly over the coming decades.

 

Gambling

Although the NFL has always officially been against sports gambling, that is likely to change soon. In May, the Supreme Court decided to let states determine whether or not to legalize sports gambling. As of July, eight states have already fully legalized the practice, while seven more have passed bills to do so. A legislative wave has begun. To capitalize on this, the NFL could set up betting parlors in stadiums, partner with established casinos, set up online sports gambling portals, etc. The possibilities are vast and there is no way the growth-obsessed NFL won’t explore as many as it can.

 

$150 Billion Annually

Estimated value of American sports gambling.

Key Challenges

Reliance on Star Power

The NFL relies on its star athletes to keep fans coming back, and when their biggest stars begin to fade, so do TV ratings. This was the case in 2016, 2017, and 2018, when ratings fell slightly for three consecutive years. In 2017, for instance, many of the league’s most popular players were injured—J.J. Watt, Aaron Rodgers, Andrew Luck, Rob Gronkowski—stuck with bad teams—Russell Wilson, Von Miller, Eli Manning—or both, like Odell Beckham Jr.

 

This same logic also applies to popular teams. When few popular teams make the playoffs, fewer fans watch. According to the research firm MoffetNathanson, only half of the 10 most popular teams made it to the postseason in 2017. This could be connected to the 20% drop in viewership that year.

 

Political Controversy

As most Americans probably already know, President Trump has had some problems with the NFL in recent years and he’s made his distaste very clear. He repeatedly admonished the NFL in 2017 and 2018 about not cracking down hard enough on players for kneeling during the national anthem to protest police brutality. Many of his supporters boycotted the league as a result. However, it remains to be seen whether this political entanglement will last.

 

 

On 4/10/2020 at 3:12 PM, paco said:

 

Thats a good point, thank you!

 

So if profit is roughly 8%, that means  $202,738,272.00 of profit lost at 2019 attendance numbers and an average ticket price of $150.  (Again, this is very conservative)

I forget what the split is in the new CBA, but lets say 50/50 because I'm too lazy to look it up. That takes us to  $101,369,136.00 or  $3,167,785.50 per team.

 

For giggles, I created a quick table of per team losses based on the above information at different average ticket prices.  I probably went too far on the high end, only because I don't know how much $$$ the suites bring in and what that does to the overall average.  But screw it, its a nice even number

ATC    Cap lost per team
 $150.00      $3,167,785.50 
 $175.00      $3,695,749.75 
 $200.00      $4,223,714.00 
 $225.00      $4,751,678.25 
 $250.00      $5,279,642.50 
 $275.00      $5,807,606.75 
 $300.00      $6,335,571.00 
 $325.00      $6,863,535.25 
 $350.00      $7,391,499.50 
 $375.00      $7,919,463.75 
 $400.00      $8,447,428.00 
 

And you can probably tack on another 2-3 million with the loss of concessions.

 

On 4/10/2020 at 3:47 PM, VaBeach_Eagle said:

Not sure how much this would add, but you can also include parking fees.

 

On 4/10/2020 at 4:58 PM, paco said:

Welp, I found an average price of tickets by team.   I guess I can now hook that into my spreadsheet and get closer to the real total for 2019.  But I'm not doing that now

 

Average Ticket Prices Per NFL Team

The following average ticket prices for NFL teams listed below are ranked by their 2019 prices, from most to least expensive.

Average Ticket Cost
NFL Team	2017	2018	2019
New England Patriots	$348	$355	$501
Chicago Bears	$186	$246	$376
Green Bay Packers	$226	$243	$243
New Orleans Saints	$160	$216	$301
Denver Broncos	$264	$196	$278
Seattle Seahawks	$223	$236	$248
Philadelphia Eagles	$199	$208	$256
Pittsburgh Steelers	$201	$195	$221
Los Angeles Chargers	$191	$157	$191
Washington Redskins	$109	$131	$167
Dallas Cowboys	$225	$141	$258
Cleveland Browns	$62	$80	$190
Oakland Raiders	$179	$145	$149
Kansas City Chiefs	$90	$102	$209
Miami Dolphins	$139	$104	$143
Detroit Lions	$117	$108	$122
Houston Texans	$123	$126	$145
Minnesota Vikings	$156	$172	$187
San Francisco 49ers	$98	$126	$178
Baltimore Ravens	$105	$100	$129
Tennessee Titans	$127	$185	$148
Atlanta Falcons	$210	$136	$170
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	$153	$151	$150
New York Jets	$75	$88	$117
Cincinnati Bengals	$70	$86	$114
Carolina Panthers	$156	$169	$131
Arizona Cardinals	$107	$82	$93
New York Giants	$155	$137	$152
Los Angeles Rams	$108	$119	$114
Jacksonville Jaguars	$61	$113	$98
Indianapolis Colts	$59	$107	$114
Buffalo Bills	$86	$63	$105

 

 

On 4/10/2020 at 5:40 PM, paco said:

Looks like I wasn't too far off with the estimate.  Average ticket price, not adjusted for attendance, was $187.  (Average ticket price adjusted for attendance is  $190.14)

 

I did take each teams average ticket price and linked it to each teams attendance for 2019 and came up with a "real" sum

TEAM	Total Attendance	Avg Ticket	Total revenue
Dallas	727,432	$  258.00	$ 187,677,456.00
NY Jets	628,184	$  117.00	$  73,497,528.00
Green Bay	622,762	$  243.00	$  151,331,166.00
Denver	607,497	$  278.00	$ 168,884,166.00
NY Giants	597,316	$  152.00	$ 90,792,032.00
Kansas City	587,723	$  209.00	$ 122,834,107.00
New Orleans	584,660	$  301.00	$  175,982,660.00
Carolina	577,765	$  131.00	$  75,687,215.00
Houston	574,345	$  145.00	$ 83,280,025.00
Atlanta	572,811	$  170.00	$ 97,377,870.00
Los Angeles Rams	498,605	$  114.00	$  56,840,970.00
Baltimore	565,020	$  129.00	$ 72,887,580.00
San Francisco	562,443	$  178.00	$ 100,114,854.00
Philadelphia	558,268	$  256.00	$ 142,916,608.00
Seattle	551,927	$  248.00	$ 136,877,896.00
Buffalo	550,713	$  105.00	$  57,824,865.00
Cleveland	539,448	$  190.00	$ 102,495,120.00
Minnesota	534,794	$  187.00	$ 100,006,478.00
New England	526,024	$  501.00	$ 263,538,024.00
Washington	523,906	$  167.00	$ 87,492,302.00
Tennessee	516,074	$  148.00	$ 76,378,952.00
Jacksonville	504,686	$    98.00	$ 49,459,228.00
Miami	504,540	$  143.00	$ 72,149,220.00
Pittsburgh	497,896	$  221.00	$ 110,035,016.00
Chicago	495,332	$  376.00	$ 186,244,832.00
Detroit	490,737	$  122.00	$ 59,869,914.00
Arizona	490,586	$    93.00	$ 45,624,498.00
Indianapolis	488,886	$  114.00	$ 55,733,004.00
Las Vegas	367,848	$  149.00	$ 54,809,352.00
Tampa Bay	415,189	$  150.00	$ 62,278,350.00
Cincinnati	377,432	$  114.00	$ 43,027,248.00
Los Angeles Chargers	254,007	$  191.00	$ 48,515,337.00
	16,894,856.00	$  187.44	$ 3,212,463,873.00

 

So what does that all mean in regards to the cap? $4 million in cap space lost per team.  Not including concessions.

Total revenue	$ 3,212,463,873.00
Estimated profit %	8%
Profit	$  256,997,109.84
Player %	50%
Players share	$  128,498,554.92
Cap Revenue lost per team	$ 4,015,579.84

 

 

 

 

 

[paco]

1 hour ago, EaglePhan1986 said:

That’s the last thing I’m worried about right now. Malik Jackson is at least one guy who will get cut to free up space. 
 

They’ll figure it out. I trust Howie with the cap more than anything. 

 

1 hour ago, EagleTen said:

If there’s one thing Howie is a league leader in, it’s cap manipulation...

I don’t have any concerns with Howie being able to sort that $50m deficit, but what I am concerned about is, the lack of flexibility it gives the Eagles in FA, both in the remainder of this year, and next year...

I am sure that figure is largely responsible for us passing on a number of impact players this offseason already...

People thought the same thing about the R-words when they backloaded their contracts severely, the way Howie is doing now.  Then in 2006, when it looked like the cap would only increase a few million, they were forced to cut about a 1/3 of their team.  Lucky for them, a new CBA deal got announced and the cap increased by almost 30%.  Lucky for the rest of us, they blew a ton of money and draft picks on TJ Duckett, Brandon Lloyd, Antwaan Randle El, Adam Archuleta, Andre Carter, Todd Collins, and Christian Fauria. 

 

Oh, and that team was very average going 6-10 most years.  Because they were so $$$ constrained and blew draft picks (hello again Howie), they couldnt sign\draft depth and any injury would create a huge hole in their roster that teams could exploit.  There might be a reason we seem to keep going 9-7....

[Guest]

1 hour ago, EaglePhan1986 said:

 Malik Jackson is at least one guy who will get cut to free up space. 

967 K in savings and 12.6 million dead cap hit.  Not happening.

[paco]

1 minute ago, downundermike said:

967 K in savings and 12.6 million dead cap hit.  Not happening.

Yup.  Barnett would be most likely from a pure numbers standpoint.  10 million, no dead cap hit.

 

But you *really* don't want to have to do that with one of your first round picks.  Its almost like we would have to root for him to flame out to get relief.

 

Alshon would be almost 8 million in savings as well.

[EaglePhan1986]

7 minutes ago, downundermike said:

967 K in savings and 12.6 million dead cap hit.  Not happening.

In 2021?

[EaglesfanfromND]

WTF do people worry about this crap......

[paco]

2 minutes ago, EaglePhan1986 said:

In 2021?

yes

[Guest]

4 minutes ago, EaglePhan1986 said:

In 2021?

[paco]

Also if I'm reading this right.... His contract actually ends after the 2021 season.  So he would be a FA and we are on the hook for 9 million in dead cap space.  More cap "wizardry"  

[Guest]

Quick little spreadsheet I made showing the more than 1 million in savings players for 2021.  

Player	Dead	Savings
Derek Barnett	0	10
Alshon Jeffery	10.5	7.9
Fletcher Cox	15.3	7.1
Marquise Goodwin	0	7
Desean Jackson	5.8	5.1
Zach Ertz	7.7	4.7
Brandon Brooks	12.2	2.3
Dallas Goedert	0.5	1.2
	Total Savings	45.3

[Bwestbrook36]

Yeah yeah you guys say this every year

[eagle45]

Lots of guys artificially propping that number up who will be gone in 2021.

[paco]

42 minutes ago, Bwestbrook36 said:

Yeah yeah you guys say this every year

And every year more and more gets pushed into the future.  Every team that has operated this way eventually has to pay the piper.

[DeathByEagle]

They can hide some of the cap money from the league office at my house. I won't mind. 

[EazyEaglez]

Difficult choices are going to be made. Some fan favorites might be gone. 

[Blazehound]

They’re Fed, especially with the cap likely decreasing In 2021. Howie is finally going to have to pay the piper. I’m not sure how they’re realistically going to manage to that number.

[jsb235]

14 minutes ago, Blazehound said:

They’re Fed, especially with the cap likely decreasing In 2021. Howie is finally going to have to pay the piper. I’m not sure how they’re realistically going to manage to that number.

My guess is that DJax, Jeffery and Goodwin will all be gone. Kelce will probably retire. Graham and Malik Jackson will probably get reworked deals. Ertz has reportedly already turned down an extension, so they may not bring him back. He will present them with a tough decision.

One positive is that they don't really have any big ticket free agents to retain. So unless Mills turns into an exceptional safety or Jones turns into a shutdown corner, there's no big paydays to hand out. They will likely work out a new deal for Barnett that will lower his cap hit.

The bottom line is that the Eagles need to hit on some draft picks. They need a cheap center or guard to replace Kelce. They need someone to play left tackle on a cheap deal for a few years. They need the young wide receivers to be good. They need the young linebackers to be serviceable. Maddox winning the CB2 job and Wallace turning into a starting safety/slot corner would be fantastic.

If that doesn't happen, I think we are in trouble. 

[Guest]

2 hours ago, eagle45 said:

Lots of guys artificially propping that number up who will be gone in 2021.

Below are the only 2021 cuts that save more than 1 million dollars.

8 hours ago, downundermike said:

Quick little spreadsheet I made showing the more than 1 million in savings players for 2021.  

Player	Dead	Savings
Derek Barnett	0	10
Alshon Jeffery	10.5	7.9
Fletcher Cox	15.3	7.1
Marquise Goodwin	0	7
Desean Jackson	5.8	5.1
Zach Ertz	7.7	4.7
Brandon Brooks	12.2	2.3
Dallas Goedert	0.5	1.2
	Total Savings	45.3

 

[eagle45]

5 minutes ago, downundermike said:

Below are the only 2021 cuts that save more than 1 million dollars.

 

https://www.nbcsports.com/philadelphia/eagles/breaking-down-interesting-contract-malik-jackson-just-signed-nfl-free-agency

Seems like they have an out on Malik Jackson, unless this article is completely wrong.

It seems they actually did exercise his option this offseason, which makes absolutely zero sense to me.