Posted May 6, 20204 yr Apparently we’re $50 million over the CAP in 2021 season they got approximately $23 million that will carry over but we’re still $27 over. only one other team is over cap in 2021: Saints but only 9 mil over Howies back loaded contracts are catching up with us
May 6, 20204 yr 9 minutes ago, Matt03785 said: Apparently we’re $50 million over the CAP in 2021 season they got approximately $23 million that will carry over but we’re still $27 over. only one other team is over cap in 2021: Saints but only 9 mil over Howies back loaded contracts are catching up with us That’s the last thing I’m worried about right now. Malik Jackson is at least one guy who will get cut to free up space. They’ll figure it out. I trust Howie with the cap more than anything.
May 6, 20204 yr If there’s one thing Howie is a league leader in, it’s cap manipulation... I don’t have any concerns with Howie being able to sort that $50m deficit, but what I am concerned about is, the lack of flexibility it gives the Eagles in FA, both in the remainder of this year, and next year... I am sure that figure is largely responsible for us passing on a number of impact players this offseason already...
May 6, 20204 yr I believe Howie has a plan with the current cap $ / how it was projected. Was reported today (by Adam Schefter?) because of COVID-19, cap next year may decrease $30 to $80M - granted some of this is worst case and may never happen - that may be where I think we may run into issues.
May 6, 20204 yr The most Howie will be able to "carry over" is not the current number of $23 million. Take at least $9m of that away to sign the rookies. But say what you want about Howie's ability to draft or his talent evaluation in general... the cap should be the least of our concerns.
May 6, 20204 yr 1 hour ago, Matt03785 said: Apparently we’re $50 million over the CAP in 2021 season they got approximately $23 million that will carry over but we’re still $27 over. only one other team is over cap in 2021: Saints but only 9 mil over Howies back loaded contracts are catching up with us FWIW, that is before the Marquis Goowin restructure. He would have had a 7 million hit next year plus is about 2 million less this year. So that brings that $50 million number down to $41 million. But yes, Howie is a** at the cap. He's playing with fire, counting on the cap rising at a certain clip each year. If it doesnt, he is screwed (think 2006 R-words). And BTW... if they don't play in front of a crowd, thats $4 million lost in ticket sales and $1-2 million in consessions that would have gone to the cap for each team. I did the math and broke it down on the old board: On 4/10/2020 at 12:11 PM, paco said: Total what if scenario. What if the 2020 season is played, just in empty stadiums. Would this cause a ripple effect and force the 2021 salary cap to experience the first decrease in NFL history? Why could this be a possible outcome? The cap is dictated by revenue. That includes everything from TV contracts to jersey sales. And a big revenue generator is ticket sales. How big? Well, in 2019 recorded attendance was 16,894,856. If you go VERY conservative and estimate that the average ticket cost was $150, that means ticket sales accounted for $2,534,228,400.00 of league revenue. So if COVID-19 is still a thing and they decide to play the season in empty stadiums\fields, that could cause the first decrease in salary cap. Flame away On 4/10/2020 at 1:47 PM, VaBeach_Eagle said: As I understand it, only the 'profit' from ticket sales are included in the formula for the salary cap. Surely not 100% of ticket sales are counted as 'profit'. There's operating expenses and stadium salaries and field maintenance and so forth. Not to mention whatever money is owed on the stadium itself (if it isn't 100% paid for yet). So how much of the ticket sales are counted as profit? On 4/10/2020 at 1:59 PM, VaBeach_Eagle said: I found this article from last September, which speaks about NFL revenue: Quote https://www.investopedia.com/articles/personal-finance/062515/how-nfl-makes-money.asp How The NFL Makes Money TV is the NFL's golden goose, but gambling and streaming show potential. By Jakob Eckstein Updated Sep 24, 2019 By any measure, the NFL is the most successful American sports league in history. For all the talk of North America’s "Big Three” sports (or for hockey fans, Big Four), the reality is that there’s pro football, and then there’s everything else. In 2015, in response to mounting criticism for its quickly growing revenue, the NFL gave up the tax-exempt status it had held since 1947. The league now exists as a trade association made up of and financed by its 32 member teams. 31 of these teams are owned individually, only the Green Bay Packers retains its non-profit status. The NFL earns the lion’s share of its money with TV deals. According to Statista, more than 50% of the league’s revenue came from TV deals in 2015, a year when the league made about $12 billion. Other revenue streams include ticket sales, merchandising, and licensing rights and corporate sponsorships. Despite steadily declining viewership since 2015 and recent controversies about concussions and the national anthem, the NFL is making more money than ever. Although, due to its private status, it is impossible to know exactly how much the NFL makes; Bloomberg estimates it earned around $15 billion during the 2018 season. This is up from estimates of $14.2 billion in 2017 and $13.3 billion in 2016. And the league is showing no intentions of slowing down. Commissioner Roger Goodell has targeted $25 billion in revenue by 2027, or 6% annual growth. The Business Model The NFL groups its revenue streams into two categories: "national revenue” and "local revenue.” National revenue consists of TV deals along with merchandising and licensing deals, which are negotiated at the national level by the NFL itself. This money is then divided evenly between the 32 teams regardless of individual performance. According to the Green Bay Packers’ 2018 annual report, the NFL earned over $8.1 billion in national revenue last year, meaning each team received about $255 million in national revenue from the league. Local revenue, which consists of ticket sales, concessions, and corporate sponsors, is earned by the teams themselves. In 2018, the Packers earned $196 million in local revenue, 43% of their total revenue that year, which was $455 million. However, the costs of running a professional football team are high. In 2018, the Packers spent $420 million on expenses. $213 million went to players, while $208 million went to stadium upkeep, marketing, and team and administrative costs. This leaves the team an operating income of $38.5 million. According to Forbes, the Dallas Cowboys are the NFL’s richest team, with $864 million in revenue and an operating income of $365 million in 2018. This is the basic structure of the NFL’s business. Here’s how it breaks down. The NFL gave up its tax-exempt status in 2015. Commissioner Roger Goodell has targeted $25 billion in revenue by 2027. TV deals make up over half of the NFL’s revenue. The Green Bay Packers are the only NFL team run as a non-profit corporation. Massive TV deals Football is, hands down, the most-viewed sport in the U.S. Nineteen of the 20 most-viewed TV broadcasts in U.S. history are Superbowls of various years. In season, NFL games are broadcast live in the USA on Mondays, Thursdays, and Sundays. These games are consistently the highest rated shows on TV, so media companies have shelled out big bucks for the rights to broadcast them. The NFL currently has TV deals with CBS, NBC (owned by Comcast), Fox, and ESPN (owned by Disney/Hearst). In contracts that were finalized in 2011, CBS, NBC, and Fox committed to pay the NFL a total of $39.6 billion between the 2014 and 2022 seasons. The three broadcasters share rights to "Sunday Night Football,” as well as annually rotating rights to the Super Bowl. Fees payed by these networks are set to rise about 7% annually, meaning they will each be paying the NFL about $3.1 billion per year by 2022. In the same year, ESPN signed a deal to pay the NFL $15.2 billion through 2021 for the rights to "Monday Night Football.” In 2018, Fox signed an additional deal for $3.3 billion for exclusive rights to "Thursday Night Football,” outbidding NBC and CBS. Merchandising and Licensing Deals Although the majority of its national revenue comes from its monster TV deals, the NFL also makes money by selling companies the rights to sell items that represent the NFL. For instance, the NFL, in partnership with Nike, signed a 10-year licensing deal with online sports-retailer Fanatics in 2018. This deal makes Fanatics the exclusive manufacturer of all adult-sized, Nike-branded merchandise sold through the NFL’s online store. The value of this deal went undisclosed, but in all likelihood, it’s pennies compared to the NFL’s TV deals. According to Navigate Research, a Chicago-based firm that specializes in the evaluation of sports and entertainment marketing investments, only about 10% of the NFL’s yearly revenue comes from these deals. Ticket Sales and Concessions Although ticket sales constitute an important revenue stream for individual NFL teams, they are nonetheless relatively small compared to quickly growing revenue from TV deals (you’re probably noticing a pattern here). On average, NFL stadiums seat about 70,000 people, and games usually sell out. This doesn’t leave much opportunity for growth. The average ticket price has increased about 7% annually since the turn of the century. Tickets cost about $30 in 2000 to about $102 in 2017, but the added revenue from these increases are negligible when compared to revenue growth from TV. The one thing teams can do is choose to renovate their stadiums to add more seats and concession stands. Such renovations are costly and disruptive, but usually pay off. Since 2010, the Packers spent more than $370 million gradually updating its stadium, Lambeau Field, including adding more seats. Since then, their yearly ticket revenue has jumped from $48 million to $71 million. NFL teams can also use their stadiums to host non-football events, like concerts, but opportunities for revenue growth from these events have the same limitations. An NFL team earned about $7 million, on average, in ticket sales from a single stadium event in 2016. About 55% of that revenue is used to pay athletes or musicians. 10% goes to general stadium administration, 5% goes to the team’s coaching staff, 5% is paid in taxes, and the remaining 8% are profit. Like ticket sales, concessions are peanuts compared to TV deals. Concessions contribute only about $3-5 million to the average NFL team’s revenue, but the margins on selling food at games are extremely high. Beer and soda sold at stadiums have margins of over 90%. Only 8% The average NFL team's profit margin of ticket sales. Corporate Sponsors Corporate sponsors pay NFL teams to display their logos on players’ uniforms, TV transitions, merchandise, etc. In 2018, the NFL pulled in over $1.3 billion in sponsorships. The most coveted sponsorships are naming rights to NFL stadiums. According to the New York Times, the naming rights to Met Life Stadium in New York and the AT&T Stadium in Dallas are both worth $19 million a year. Future Plans TV Growth Contrary to some claims, TV isn’t dying, at least not when it comes to football. The value of the NFL’s TV deals has skyrocketed in the last few decades; by all accounts, it will likely continue to do so. As a result, the NFL’s biggest focus for reaching its aspirational $25 billion in revenue by 2025 is continuing to secure bigger and bigger TV deals. Streaming Although TV is still king when it comes to watching football, streaming is on the rise. In 2017, Verizon signed a new $2.5 billion deal with the NFL for five years of streaming rights. This is twice the size of the deal Verizon had with the NFL before. In April of 2018, Amazon signed a comparatively small deal of $130 million for two years of streaming rights. If the growth of TV deals in the last few decades are any indication, these deals will also continue to grow rapidly over the coming decades. Gambling Although the NFL has always officially been against sports gambling, that is likely to change soon. In May, the Supreme Court decided to let states determine whether or not to legalize sports gambling. As of July, eight states have already fully legalized the practice, while seven more have passed bills to do so. A legislative wave has begun. To capitalize on this, the NFL could set up betting parlors in stadiums, partner with established casinos, set up online sports gambling portals, etc. The possibilities are vast and there is no way the growth-obsessed NFL won’t explore as many as it can. $150 Billion Annually Estimated value of American sports gambling. Key Challenges Reliance on Star Power The NFL relies on its star athletes to keep fans coming back, and when their biggest stars begin to fade, so do TV ratings. This was the case in 2016, 2017, and 2018, when ratings fell slightly for three consecutive years. In 2017, for instance, many of the league’s most popular players were injured—J.J. Watt, Aaron Rodgers, Andrew Luck, Rob Gronkowski—stuck with bad teams—Russell Wilson, Von Miller, Eli Manning—or both, like Odell Beckham Jr. This same logic also applies to popular teams. When few popular teams make the playoffs, fewer fans watch. According to the research firm MoffetNathanson, only half of the 10 most popular teams made it to the postseason in 2017. This could be connected to the 20% drop in viewership that year. Political Controversy As most Americans probably already know, President Trump has had some problems with the NFL in recent years and he’s made his distaste very clear. He repeatedly admonished the NFL in 2017 and 2018 about not cracking down hard enough on players for kneeling during the national anthem to protest police brutality. Many of his supporters boycotted the league as a result. However, it remains to be seen whether this political entanglement will last. On 4/10/2020 at 3:12 PM, paco said: Thats a good point, thank you! So if profit is roughly 8%, that means $202,738,272.00 of profit lost at 2019 attendance numbers and an average ticket price of $150. (Again, this is very conservative) I forget what the split is in the new CBA, but lets say 50/50 because I'm too lazy to look it up. That takes us to $101,369,136.00 or $3,167,785.50 per team. For giggles, I created a quick table of per team losses based on the above information at different average ticket prices. I probably went too far on the high end, only because I don't know how much $$$ the suites bring in and what that does to the overall average. But screw it, its a nice even number ATC Cap lost per team $150.00 $3,167,785.50 $175.00 $3,695,749.75 $200.00 $4,223,714.00 $225.00 $4,751,678.25 $250.00 $5,279,642.50 $275.00 $5,807,606.75 $300.00 $6,335,571.00 $325.00 $6,863,535.25 $350.00 $7,391,499.50 $375.00 $7,919,463.75 $400.00 $8,447,428.00 And you can probably tack on another 2-3 million with the loss of concessions. On 4/10/2020 at 3:47 PM, VaBeach_Eagle said: Not sure how much this would add, but you can also include parking fees. On 4/10/2020 at 4:58 PM, paco said: Welp, I found an average price of tickets by team. I guess I can now hook that into my spreadsheet and get closer to the real total for 2019. But I'm not doing that now Average Ticket Prices Per NFL Team The following average ticket prices for NFL teams listed below are ranked by their 2019 prices, from most to least expensive. Average Ticket Cost NFL Team 2017 2018 2019 New England Patriots $348 $355 $501 Chicago Bears $186 $246 $376 Green Bay Packers $226 $243 $243 New Orleans Saints $160 $216 $301 Denver Broncos $264 $196 $278 Seattle Seahawks $223 $236 $248 Philadelphia Eagles $199 $208 $256 Pittsburgh Steelers $201 $195 $221 Los Angeles Chargers $191 $157 $191 Washington Redskins $109 $131 $167 Dallas Cowboys $225 $141 $258 Cleveland Browns $62 $80 $190 Oakland Raiders $179 $145 $149 Kansas City Chiefs $90 $102 $209 Miami Dolphins $139 $104 $143 Detroit Lions $117 $108 $122 Houston Texans $123 $126 $145 Minnesota Vikings $156 $172 $187 San Francisco 49ers $98 $126 $178 Baltimore Ravens $105 $100 $129 Tennessee Titans $127 $185 $148 Atlanta Falcons $210 $136 $170 Tampa Bay Buccaneers $153 $151 $150 New York Jets $75 $88 $117 Cincinnati Bengals $70 $86 $114 Carolina Panthers $156 $169 $131 Arizona Cardinals $107 $82 $93 New York Giants $155 $137 $152 Los Angeles Rams $108 $119 $114 Jacksonville Jaguars $61 $113 $98 Indianapolis Colts $59 $107 $114 Buffalo Bills $86 $63 $105 On 4/10/2020 at 5:40 PM, paco said: Looks like I wasn't too far off with the estimate. Average ticket price, not adjusted for attendance, was $187. (Average ticket price adjusted for attendance is $190.14) I did take each teams average ticket price and linked it to each teams attendance for 2019 and came up with a "real" sum TEAM Total Attendance Avg Ticket Total revenue Dallas 727,432 $ 258.00 $ 187,677,456.00 NY Jets 628,184 $ 117.00 $ 73,497,528.00 Green Bay 622,762 $ 243.00 $ 151,331,166.00 Denver 607,497 $ 278.00 $ 168,884,166.00 NY Giants 597,316 $ 152.00 $ 90,792,032.00 Kansas City 587,723 $ 209.00 $ 122,834,107.00 New Orleans 584,660 $ 301.00 $ 175,982,660.00 Carolina 577,765 $ 131.00 $ 75,687,215.00 Houston 574,345 $ 145.00 $ 83,280,025.00 Atlanta 572,811 $ 170.00 $ 97,377,870.00 Los Angeles Rams 498,605 $ 114.00 $ 56,840,970.00 Baltimore 565,020 $ 129.00 $ 72,887,580.00 San Francisco 562,443 $ 178.00 $ 100,114,854.00 Philadelphia 558,268 $ 256.00 $ 142,916,608.00 Seattle 551,927 $ 248.00 $ 136,877,896.00 Buffalo 550,713 $ 105.00 $ 57,824,865.00 Cleveland 539,448 $ 190.00 $ 102,495,120.00 Minnesota 534,794 $ 187.00 $ 100,006,478.00 New England 526,024 $ 501.00 $ 263,538,024.00 Washington 523,906 $ 167.00 $ 87,492,302.00 Tennessee 516,074 $ 148.00 $ 76,378,952.00 Jacksonville 504,686 $ 98.00 $ 49,459,228.00 Miami 504,540 $ 143.00 $ 72,149,220.00 Pittsburgh 497,896 $ 221.00 $ 110,035,016.00 Chicago 495,332 $ 376.00 $ 186,244,832.00 Detroit 490,737 $ 122.00 $ 59,869,914.00 Arizona 490,586 $ 93.00 $ 45,624,498.00 Indianapolis 488,886 $ 114.00 $ 55,733,004.00 Las Vegas 367,848 $ 149.00 $ 54,809,352.00 Tampa Bay 415,189 $ 150.00 $ 62,278,350.00 Cincinnati 377,432 $ 114.00 $ 43,027,248.00 Los Angeles Chargers 254,007 $ 191.00 $ 48,515,337.00 16,894,856.00 $ 187.44 $ 3,212,463,873.00 So what does that all mean in regards to the cap? $4 million in cap space lost per team. Not including concessions. Total revenue $ 3,212,463,873.00 Estimated profit % 8% Profit $ 256,997,109.84 Player % 50% Players share $ 128,498,554.92 Cap Revenue lost per team $ 4,015,579.84
May 6, 20204 yr 1 hour ago, EaglePhan1986 said: That’s the last thing I’m worried about right now. Malik Jackson is at least one guy who will get cut to free up space. They’ll figure it out. I trust Howie with the cap more than anything. 1 hour ago, EagleTen said: If there’s one thing Howie is a league leader in, it’s cap manipulation... I don’t have any concerns with Howie being able to sort that $50m deficit, but what I am concerned about is, the lack of flexibility it gives the Eagles in FA, both in the remainder of this year, and next year... I am sure that figure is largely responsible for us passing on a number of impact players this offseason already... People thought the same thing about the R-words when they backloaded their contracts severely, the way Howie is doing now. Then in 2006, when it looked like the cap would only increase a few million, they were forced to cut about a 1/3 of their team. Lucky for them, a new CBA deal got announced and the cap increased by almost 30%. Lucky for the rest of us, they blew a ton of money and draft picks on TJ Duckett, Brandon Lloyd, Antwaan Randle El, Adam Archuleta, Andre Carter, Todd Collins, and Christian Fauria. Oh, and that team was very average going 6-10 most years. Because they were so $$$ constrained and blew draft picks (hello again Howie), they couldnt sign\draft depth and any injury would create a huge hole in their roster that teams could exploit. There might be a reason we seem to keep going 9-7....
May 6, 20204 yr 1 hour ago, EaglePhan1986 said: Malik Jackson is at least one guy who will get cut to free up space. 967 K in savings and 12.6 million dead cap hit. Not happening.
May 6, 20204 yr 1 minute ago, downundermike said: 967 K in savings and 12.6 million dead cap hit. Not happening. Yup. Barnett would be most likely from a pure numbers standpoint. 10 million, no dead cap hit. But you *really* don't want to have to do that with one of your first round picks. Its almost like we would have to root for him to flame out to get relief. Alshon would be almost 8 million in savings as well.
May 6, 20204 yr 7 minutes ago, downundermike said: 967 K in savings and 12.6 million dead cap hit. Not happening. In 2021?
May 6, 20204 yr Also if I'm reading this right.... His contract actually ends after the 2021 season. So he would be a FA and we are on the hook for 9 million in dead cap space. More cap "wizardry"
May 6, 20204 yr Quick little spreadsheet I made showing the more than 1 million in savings players for 2021. Player Dead Savings Derek Barnett 0 10 Alshon Jeffery 10.5 7.9 Fletcher Cox 15.3 7.1 Marquise Goodwin 0 7 Desean Jackson 5.8 5.1 Zach Ertz 7.7 4.7 Brandon Brooks 12.2 2.3 Dallas Goedert 0.5 1.2 Total Savings 45.3
May 7, 20204 yr 42 minutes ago, Bwestbrook36 said: Yeah yeah you guys say this every year And every year more and more gets pushed into the future. Every team that has operated this way eventually has to pay the piper.
May 7, 20204 yr They can hide some of the cap money from the league office at my house. I won't mind.
May 7, 20204 yr They’re Fed, especially with the cap likely decreasing In 2021. Howie is finally going to have to pay the piper. I’m not sure how they’re realistically going to manage to that number.
May 7, 20204 yr 14 minutes ago, Blazehound said: They’re Fed, especially with the cap likely decreasing In 2021. Howie is finally going to have to pay the piper. I’m not sure how they’re realistically going to manage to that number. My guess is that DJax, Jeffery and Goodwin will all be gone. Kelce will probably retire. Graham and Malik Jackson will probably get reworked deals. Ertz has reportedly already turned down an extension, so they may not bring him back. He will present them with a tough decision. One positive is that they don't really have any big ticket free agents to retain. So unless Mills turns into an exceptional safety or Jones turns into a shutdown corner, there's no big paydays to hand out. They will likely work out a new deal for Barnett that will lower his cap hit. The bottom line is that the Eagles need to hit on some draft picks. They need a cheap center or guard to replace Kelce. They need someone to play left tackle on a cheap deal for a few years. They need the young wide receivers to be good. They need the young linebackers to be serviceable. Maddox winning the CB2 job and Wallace turning into a starting safety/slot corner would be fantastic. If that doesn't happen, I think we are in trouble.
May 7, 20204 yr 2 hours ago, eagle45 said: Lots of guys artificially propping that number up who will be gone in 2021. Below are the only 2021 cuts that save more than 1 million dollars. 8 hours ago, downundermike said: Quick little spreadsheet I made showing the more than 1 million in savings players for 2021. Player Dead Savings Derek Barnett 0 10 Alshon Jeffery 10.5 7.9 Fletcher Cox 15.3 7.1 Marquise Goodwin 0 7 Desean Jackson 5.8 5.1 Zach Ertz 7.7 4.7 Brandon Brooks 12.2 2.3 Dallas Goedert 0.5 1.2 Total Savings 45.3
May 7, 20204 yr 5 minutes ago, downundermike said: Below are the only 2021 cuts that save more than 1 million dollars. https://www.nbcsports.com/philadelphia/eagles/breaking-down-interesting-contract-malik-jackson-just-signed-nfl-free-agency Seems like they have an out on Malik Jackson, unless this article is completely wrong. It seems they actually did exercise his option this offseason, which makes absolutely zero sense to me.
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