Howie Roseman's Top 10 value draft picks

[time2rock]

Howie Roseman's Top 10 value draft picks

 

 

 

Reuben Frank

EAGLES INSIDER

We talk all the time about the early-round disappointments, and there have been plenty of them. Nobody needs to be reminded about Antone Davis, Bernard Williams, Fireman Danny, Freddie Mitchell, Jalen Reagor or all the other 1st-round disasters in Eagles history.

Oops. We weren't going to talk about them.

No, we're going to go in the opposite direction today.

Since Howie Roseman was reinstated as general manager in 2016, he's actually had very good success mining the later rounds of the draft, and that's helped make up for the misses in the early rounds.

Imagine if Jordan Mailata was a 1st-round pick and Andre Dillard was a 7th-round pick? Or if Quez Watkins was a 2 and Jalen Reagor was a 6? What if Josh Sweat had been the 1st-round pick and Derek Barnett went in the 4th round? 

We would look at all these players a little differently. 

Nobody wants to keep missing in the 1st round, but Roseman and his staff have made up for it -- to some extent -- with some very good picks in the later rounds.

So with that in mind, here are Roseman's Top 10 late-round value picks. We went 4th round or later and limited this list to players drafted since 2016, when Roseman was reinstated by Jeff Lurie as general manager. 

The later the round, the greater the value. So in ranking them, we considered both where they were drafted and what they achieved on the field.

1. Jordan Mailata (7th round, 233rd pick): Quite possibly will turn out to be the Eagles' best 7th-round pick since Hall of Famer Harold Carmichael in 1971. To get a franchise left tackle, a potential Pro bowler, with the 233rd pick in the draft is amazing enough. To do it with a guy who had never played organized football in his life makes this pick even more remarkable.

2. Jalen Mills (7th round, 233rd pick): Never a great player, but nobody got more out of their ability than Mills. He was huge during the 2017 Super Bowl season, with three interceptions, including a pick-6, as well as 14 pass knockdowns, and his defense on Julio Jones in the end zone on the final play of the Falcons playoff game that year saved the season. Mills wasn't an elite corner, but he was a tough, physical player who gave you everything he had. The only player drafted in the 7th round who was a full-time starter on the 2017 Super Bowl championship team.

3. Avonte Maddox (4th round, 125th pick): After a promising 2020 season, the Eagles last year tried to force Maddox into a role as an outside corner that he wasn't suited for. This year, as a full-time slot, Maddox had an outstanding season, playing 46 snaps per game -- only 15 fewer than Darius Slay. Maddox brings an element of toughness and physicality to the secondary. He's a sure tackler, outstanding in coverage in the middle of the field and gave the Eagles very consistent play this year. A steal in the 4th round.

4. Quez Watkins (6th round, 200th pick): It's rare to find receivers in the later rounds, and when you do, it generally takes them a few years to find their way. Watkins this year became only the 6th receiver in the last 30 years drafted in the 6th round or later with 600 yards before his 24th birthday and the first Eagle to do that since Harold Jackson in 1969. Watkins is still raw and has plenty of upside, so 647 yards and 15.1 yards per carry in an offense that doesn't throw all that much is awfully promising. Other than Jason Kelce, quite possibly the Eagles' best 6th-round pick since Andy Harmon in 1991.

5. Kenny Gainwell (5th round, 150th pick): Finding a running back as gifted as Gainwell in the 5th round is unheard of. Gainwell is only the 11th RB drafted in the 5th round or later in the last 30 years to have a season with 500 scrimmage yards before his 23rd birthday. And Gainwell netted 544 yards despite averaging just 17 snaps per game. Think about this: Jalen Reagor had almost half as many scrimmage yards as Gainwell despite playing nearly 500 more snaps. Gainwell had eight games where he got three or fewer touches, yet if you include the postseason, he had 599 scrimmage yards and seven touchdowns. Including the playoffs, Gainwell had 107 touches. He's the sixth player in NFL history to score 7 or more TDs on 107 or fewer carries as a rookie drafted in the 5th round or later.

6. Josh Sweat (4th round, 130th pick): It took him a while, but by the second half of this season, he had finally become truly a feared edge rusher. Sweat had 6 of his 7½ sacks the second half of the season and the league noticed because he was voted a Pro Bowl alternate, then became a Pro Bowler this week when the 49ers' Nick Bosa pulled out of the game with an injury. Finding an edge rusher like Sweat is difficult this late in the draft. Trent Cole was a 5th-round pick, but he was drafted 17 years ago. Clyde Simmons was a 9th-round pick back in 1986, when there were 12 rounds. Sweat is the first 4-3 edge rusher drafted as late as he was -- with the 130th pick -- with at least 7½ sacks since Willie Young of the Bears in 2014. Howie missed on Derek Barnett, but the Sweat pick is looking good.

7. Halapoulivaati Vaitai (5th round, 164th pick): He's no longer here, but Big V really did a fantastic job filling in for Jason Peters at left tackle during the 2017 Super Bowl run. J.P. tore his ACL in a Week 7 game against Washington, and now you have a 24-year-old 5th-round pick with six career starts filling in for a likely Hall of Famer, but the offense didn't miss a beat. Including the postseason, the Eagles went 14-1 when Vaitai played significant snaps (not counting the meaningless season-ending game against the Cowboys). His play earned Vaitai a five-year, $45 million contract with the Lions in free agency. Vaitai -- along with Kelce and Mills -- was one of only three regular starters on the Super Bowl-champion Eagles drafted in the 5th round or later.

8. Jack Driscoll (4th round, 145th pick): Injuries have cut his first two seasons short, but Driscoll has shown in a short time that he's a very capable piece either at guard or tackle. Right from Day 1 of his rookie year, when he made an emergency start in place of Lane Johnson, Driscoll has been solid whether playing right guard (eight starts) or right tackle (five starts). A potential starter but may be most valuable as a backup at four spots. Since Roseman became GM, the Eagles have drafted Kelce, Mailata, Big V and Driscoll all in the 4th round or later (not to mention Dennis Kelly, who's had a 10-year career).

9. Shaun Bradley (6th round, 196th pick): Bradley missed some time with injuries this year, but in his two years out of Temple, he's proven to be an exceptional special teamer, and he even was named a Pro Bowl alternate as a special teamer this year, an honor voted on by his peers. Bradley, a native of Mount Holly and a graduate of Rancocas Valley High School, hasn't played a lot of linebacker yet -- 111 snaps his first two seasons -- but if you can find a special teams star in the 6th round, there's nothing wrong with that.

10. Wendell Smallwood (5th round, 153rd pick): Smallwood had a nice three-year run as a special teamer and backup running back for the Eagles from 2016 through 2018. He had over 1,300 scrimmage yards during that span, second-most among all Eagles RBs, just 17 yards fewer than Darren Sproles. And he won a ring. 

https://www.nbcsports.com/philadelphia/eagles/eagles-gm-howie-rosemans-top-10-value-nfl-draft-picks

[Perforator]

That's a stretch

[eagle45]

Looks better than the list of his all time best 1st and 2nd round picks.

[UK_EaglesFan89]

5 hours ago, eagle45 said:

Looks better than the list of his all time best 1st and 2nd round picks.

Could you make a top 10 of them? That's a struggle. 

[PoconoDon]

Overall, Howie is a C- drafter...at best. I hope he gets exponentially better immediately. Probably only a fool's hope.

[UK_EaglesFan89]

4 hours ago, PoconoDon said:

Overall, Howie is a C- drafter...at best. I hope he gets exponentially better immediately. Probably only a fool's hope.

I'd agree with that. Middle to later rounds he's OK and can find value but those early rounds he's awful. So yeah all in all I'd say that levels out to a C-.

[time2rock]

4 hours ago, UK_EaglesFan89 said:

I'd agree with that. Middle to later rounds he's OK and can find value but those early rounds he's awful. So yeah all in all I'd say that levels out to a C-.

I recall reading some time ago some 'speculation' from those that report on the birds (I use the term speculation since no direct sources were quoted) that the reason for the disparity is because in the early rounds, Howie is more likely to ignore the guidance as provided by the scouts and will go with the board he sets while in the latter rounds he is more following the board set by the scouts (because he doesn't have as much info on those players - he focuses more on the top 100-150 players).  Unfortunately we'll never know if there is any truth to that.  

[PoconoDon]

34 minutes ago, time2rock said:

I recall reading some time ago some 'speculation' from those that report on the birds (I use the term speculation since no direct sources were quoted) that the reason for the disparity is because in the early rounds, Howie is more likely to ignore the guidance as provided by the scouts and will go with the board he sets while in the latter rounds he is more following the board set by the scouts (because he doesn't have as much info on those players - he focuses more on the top 100-150 players).  Unfortunately we'll never know if there is any truth to that.  

There's also innuendo that Lurie gets involved early and interjects his "feels" into the process.  If that's both true and driving the earliest pick(s), they're done before they start.

If those 2 things were true, then between him and Howie, they'd probably miss on almost all of their early picks...........oh wait......

[UK_EaglesFan89]

40 minutes ago, time2rock said:

I recall reading some time ago some 'speculation' from those that report on the birds (I use the term speculation since no direct sources were quoted) that the reason for the disparity is because in the early rounds, Howie is more likely to ignore the guidance as provided by the scouts and will go with the board he sets while in the latter rounds he is more following the board set by the scouts (because he doesn't have as much info on those players - he focuses more on the top 100-150 players).  Unfortunately we'll never know if there is any truth to that.  

I mean I can certainly believe that... There has to be logical reason why he tends to be so bad in the earlier rounds and that reason is logical. 

[time2rock]

18 minutes ago, PoconoDon said:

There's also innuendo that Lurie gets involved early and interjects his "feels" into the process.  If that's both true and driving the earliest pick(s), they're done before they start.

If those 2 things were true, then between him and Howie, they'd probably miss on almost all of their early picks...........oh wait......

Agreed ... if there is ANY truth to either of those, we are completely screwed and not likely to get any better any time soon.  They CAN NOT afford to miss with the picks they have this year ... this draft will either make or break the franchise for the foreseeable future.  "Make" as in elevate us into legit contenders and "break" as in leaving us meddling in mediocrity (at best).  Making the playoffs was probably the worst thing we could have done this year - it likely gave them a false sense of how close we are and provided justification for the way they conduct business as being the right way.  

20 minutes ago, UK_EaglesFan89 said:

I mean I can certainly believe that... There has to be logical reason why he tends to be so bad in the earlier rounds and that reason is logical. 

You would think the earlier picks are the safer picks (more likely to hit on).  Crazy that it is the opposite for our boy wonder GM.  

[NCTANK]

pffftt

[Outlaw]

I decided to just draft the Cincinnati offense. I give you the Philadelphia BearEagles, err…Beagles. 
 

[EaglesAddict]

My real question when it comes to Howie and the draft is, how many of his picks are truly "his"?  As in, he did his own scouting and based on his own judgement, thought he was the best player on the board, etc.  

It really seems to me that Howie is more of the decision maker in the sense that he has to navigate the opinions and suggestions from Andy Weidl and the scouts, the coaching staff, and Lurie and decide which guy to take.  So, in other words, whomever he picks is at someone else's suggestion and not his own.

Most GMs are guys who have worked their way up through the scouting ranks so they know how to evaluate players on their own.  Howie, obviously, didn't take that route to be GM.

[Perforator]

16 minutes ago, EaglesAddict said:

My real question when it comes to Howie and the draft is, how many of his picks are truly "his"?  As in, he did his own scouting and based on his own judgement, thought he was the best player on the board, etc.  

It really seems to me that Howie is more of the decision maker in the sense that he has to navigate the opinions and suggestions from Andy Weidl and the scouts, the coaching staff, and Lurie and decide which guy to take.  So, in other words, whomever he picks is at someone else's suggestion and not his own.

Most GMs are guys who have worked their way up through the scouting ranks so they know how to evaluate players on their own.  Howie, obviously, didn't take that route to be GM.

It doesn't matter, they are all his. He is the GM, the decision maker, the big kahuna. He hired everyone whose opinions and suggestions he is receiving. He makes the final decision.

[EaglesAddict]

7 minutes ago, Perforator said:

It doesn't matter, they are all his. He is the GM, the decision maker, the big kahuna. He hired everyone whose opinions and suggestions he is receiving. He makes the final decision.

That's true.  But the actual dynamic on how these botched draft picks happen is different than the norm.  I believe this to be among the main reasons why Lurie hasn't...and won't...fire him.