Jimmy Garropolo (49ers QB) -- Potential Trade?

[Aerolithe_Lion]

Did you know that Jimmy Garropolo is likely to retire as the single most accurate Quarterback who ever lived? It's true. He's a fraction of a percentage point behind the alltime leader, and has been eclipsing that mark over his last 3 seasons. As long as he continues his current play, it should be in the bag.

"But Wait!" you clamor. "Even Sam Bradford led the league in completion percentage in a dink and dunk offense!"

While it's true the stat could be manipulated in such a way, that may not be what's happening with Jimmy. In fact, he was second in the entire NFL last year in yards per pass attempt. As for his whole career, he is third all-time in this category as well, and what's better... he's ahead of every single contemporary quarterback. The two guys in front of him haven't played since the 50's. This stat can also be impacted by yards after the catch, a number influenced by both his receivers and the offense he's in, but Jimmy was also 7th in completed-air-yards-per-pass-attempt. This means of the average distance his passes went out of his hand, only 6 men in the NFL averaged further on their completions. He was completing passes (on average) further downfield than Rodgers, than Herbert, than Brady, even than Mahomes. 1st in YPA AND 7th in completed pass travel distance per attempt.

He's also exceptionally accurate on deep passes. In 2022 he was top 10 in total 20+ yard completions, despite attempting far fewer passes than anyone else as he missed 2 games and played in a run heavy offense. He's only 4 20+ yard completions behind Mahomes despite attempting over 200 fewer passes. Tweet from 2020 awarding him most accurate deep passer in the league:

There is one more stat to bring up: Net Yards Per Attempt. User @austinfan views this as the single most important stat in a QB's box score; it trumps total QBR, interception %, completion %, TD/INT ratio... anything else you can come up with. And what of 2021 NY/A? Jimmy led the world in that stat, brought his team to the NFCCG, and solidified himself as second place all-time for  his career in that stat next to Mahomes. Article with this logic:

https://www.stadiumtalk.com/s/most-important-stat-in-football-47ea57ca1f5249d9#:~:text=A Simple Stat&text=Peyton Manning is the NFL,per pass attempt at 7.23.

 

 

But me? I prefer Total QBR (The ESPN stat) and EPA:

https://mfootballanalytics.com/2020/04/06/which-qb-stats-are-the-most-important/

And here is a tweet in late November (couldn't find a more recent one) showing the league's highest EPA QBs:

 

He throws further than everyone else, is more efficient than anyone else, and converts more of those attempts than anyone else... ever. So if he's such a historic player, while does that not translate onto the field? I think there are a couple reasons: first, he's only ever played on run, run, run offenses. Belichick coddled him in New England when he was subbing for Brady. In his time in SF, he's attempting 28 passes per game. Compare that to Rodgers last year who attempted 33 passes per game. Stafford was 35. Burrow 33, and Tom Brady a staggering 42 attempts a game. This is how a guy who's all-time in ypa and completion percentage doesnt even throw for 4000 yards. I believe this has dramatically altered his perception amongst fans.

Two Drawbacks to Jimmy Garoppolo

While he does have all-time stats, he won't show up on those lists yet because he doesn't qualify. Despite being in the league for a number of years now, he's missed a lot of time due to injury. Still, in the 2 full seasons he's had in SF, both ended in the NFCCG, and one in the SB. When healthy, he can do it.

Secondly, he is building a lowlight reel of inopportune interceptions. A lot of this is on him, but I do believe some of it is the circumstances his offense is putting him in. Kyle Shanahan is a fantastic offensive mind, but he's built a very specific offensive structure around Jimmy. They are not a wide open passing attack like the Rams, like the Bucs. So when they're down or close in a late game and they need to open up the offense for Jimmy to push them downfield, it's not a situation they're accustomed to. There are teams that are going to excel in that situation because they're build to be in that situation... think Stafford on the Lions vs Stafford on the Rams. He didn't become a better QB, but the team was better at what makes him great. Even then, EVEN THEN if you want to tag him as interception-prone, his bad interception years are 12, 13. If he throws more, than may go up. But in a wider offense that trusts his decision making more, that may also go down.

 

 

 

 

In conclusion, He, Mahomes, and Rodgers are the only QBs to make the conference championship game multiple times over the last 3 years. He's 33-14 as a starter. All-time in completion percentage. An All-timer in yards per attempt. And all-timer in Net Yards per attempt. This isn't an accident, he did it in NE and in SF. Players don't just trip and fall into situations that make them look this good. I don't believe SF is going to get a 1st for him after waiting this long. Even though he has a bum shoulder right now, 2 three's or even a second rounder before the draft this year would be worth more to them than equal value later this summer from someone else. The man JUST turned 30, we'd be trading a 2 for a guy who'd be our QB for the next 6, 7, 8 years. What are we gonna use that pick on that'd be worth more than that? Turn Hurts around to the Texans or the Seahawks for a 3 or a 4. I wholeheartedly believe that if we got him and started really throwing the ball more, he'd be viewed as a top 10 quarterback. And then, we'll be wearing gold-plated diapers.

[UK_EaglesFan89]

Do. Not. Want. He's far too inconsistent. When he's good he's pretty good. When he's bad he's awful. And we don't have the defense that SF do to bail him out. 

Hurts likely isn't the answer but neither is Garrapolo. He'd be a marginal step forwards at QB and we need a big step forwards. 

[time2rock]

Good Lord, toss this in the same bucket with the Mayfield and Wentz threads.