Hit rate for players drafted in the NFL is not great

[EricAllenPick6]

Article is here: https://www.dailynorseman.com/2022/4/26/23042105/nfl-draft-pick-bust-rate-remains-very-high , but they discussed the hit rate of NFL players using a pretty simple metric: whether they got a second contract with their original team. 

So, it turns out that only 31% of 1st round picks got a new contract with their old team, the vast majority (50%) end up signing elsewhere for their second contract.  

Thought that was interesting, although I think some teams may be better and some may be worse.  

[Guest]

41 minutes ago, EricAllenPick6 said:

Article is here: https://www.dailynorseman.com/2022/4/26/23042105/nfl-draft-pick-bust-rate-remains-very-high , but they discussed the hit rate of NFL players using a pretty simple metric: whether they got a second contract with their original team. 

So, it turns out that only 31% of 1st round picks got a new contract with their old team, the vast majority (50%) end up signing elsewhere for their second contract.  

Thought that was interesting, although I think some teams may be better and some may be worse.  

We are well aware.  austinfan posts this number daily in his defense of Howie Roseman.

[EricAllenPick6]

2 minutes ago, downundermike said:

We are well aware.  austinfan posts this number daily in his defense of Howie Roseman.

Not necessarily posting in defense of Howie, I just find it very interesting that average the hit rate is so low.  Some teams, like the Cowboys have 5 of 7 of their recent 1st round picks signing second contracts with the team for a hit rate of 71% (!).  The Browns on the other hand are at 22%.  

Eagles: Howie's recent picks probably will end up being 16% (!) which is WELL below the league average. If there's a regression to the mean then we can expect Devonta and Davis to be good enough to get second contracts.

 

[paco]

20 hours ago, EricAllenPick6 said:

Article is here: https://www.dailynorseman.com/2022/4/26/23042105/nfl-draft-pick-bust-rate-remains-very-high , but they discussed the hit rate of NFL players using a pretty simple metric: whether they got a second contract with their original team. 

So, it turns out that only 31% of 1st round picks got a new contract with their old team, the vast majority (50%) end up signing elsewhere for their second contract.  

Thought that was interesting, although I think some teams may be better and some may be worse.  

It's a little silly to determine if a player was a hit if they sign a contract with their original team.  I get why they did it, they signed player X to do Y, and if he flops then he's likely to be let go. 

 

But just about as often a player is a darn good player and opts for FA.  Because, you know, $$$.

 

A better metric is if the player lives out his rookie contract AND signs a second one, IMO

[Vee]

8 hours ago, paco said:

A better metric is if the player lives out his rookie contract AND signs a second one, IMO

That is certainly a flawed metric as well.   Quarterbacks live on and on and on.  Linemen.  etc;.

I think the second contract with the team that drafted them is better.  The pick is a hit if the team that drafts that person makes it a priority to resign them.

There really isn't a solid way of tracking a "hit" or "miss".

[Procus]

On 5/4/2022 at 10:12 AM, EricAllenPick6 said:

Article is here: https://www.dailynorseman.com/2022/4/26/23042105/nfl-draft-pick-bust-rate-remains-very-high , but they discussed the hit rate of NFL players using a pretty simple metric: whether they got a second contract with their original team. 

So, it turns out that only 31% of 1st round picks got a new contract with their old team, the vast majority (50%) end up signing elsewhere for their second contract.  

Thought that was interesting, although I think some teams may be better and some may be worse.  

No doubt - but human nature, and for that matter, especially TATER nature is to blame when a draft pick doesn't work out.  Howie will never live down the Jalen Reagor fiasco.

[Vee]

10 hours ago, Procus said:

No doubt - but human nature, and for that matter, especially TATER nature is to blame when a draft pick doesn't work out.  Howie will never live down the Jalen Reagor fiasco.

No.  Not when Jefferson was there for the taking....

[PoconoDon]

Location is a real issue for 2nd contracts. Fans want a championship team so staying put matters a lot to them. Some players however, prioritize warm weather, or a bigger endorsement market, or acting opportunities after football, or a host of other things that make them move on from small town, cold weather markets like Cleveland Ohio.

[EricAllenPick6]

2 hours ago, PoconoDon said:

Location is a real issue for 2nd contracts. Fans want a championship team so staying put matters a lot to them. Some players however, prioritize warm weather, or a bigger endorsement market, or acting opportunities after football, or a host of other things that make them move on from small town, cold weather markets like Cleveland Ohio.

Yep, some truth to this.  Some teams are really just not willing to pay what the market will bear for a rookie contract, or have already replaced the person with a younger, cheaper version.  Others go ring chasing or re-unite with college teammates, old coaches, etc.  

1st round:  1 in 5 will end up out of the league never getting 2nd contracts.  Crazy stuff right there.  Seems a bit high?

 

[Vee]

6 hours ago, PoconoDon said:

Location is a real issue for 2nd contracts. Fans want a championship team so staying put matters a lot to them. Some players however, prioritize warm weather, or a bigger endorsement market, or acting opportunities after football, or a host of other things that make them move on from small town, cold weather markets like Cleveland Ohio.

Winning cures everything....just ask Green Bay.  When they started winning with Favre, they were the go-to destination for talent.  

Cleveland has been so bad for so long, it doesn't matter where they were located.

[Procus]

3 minutes ago, Vee said:

Winning cures everything....just ask Green Bay.  When they started winning with Favre, they were the go-to destination for talent.  

Cleveland has been so bad for so long, it doesn't matter where they were located.

I remember when Philly was the armpit of the NFL.  Until Vermeil came along, it was a destination to be avoided at all costs.

[mihailo]

On 5/5/2022 at 1:01 PM, paco said:

It's a little silly to determine if a player was a hit if they sign a contract with their original team.  I get why they did it, they signed player X to do Y, and if he flops then he's likely to be let go. 

 

But just about as often a player is a darn good player and opts for FA.  Because, you know, $$$.

 

A better metric is if the player lives out his rookie contract AND signs a second one, IMO

Apparently AJ Brown is a miss for the Titans as they didn't re-sign him.

[Vee]

18 hours ago, mihailo said:

Apparently AJ Brown is a miss for the Titans as they didn't re-sign him.

So without going through every single player and sitting in a room with 100 experts which must vote on miss or hit, what's your suggestion?

 

I mean Wentz resigned with Philly, so technically that was a hit.  I get it.  

[mihailo]

6 hours ago, Vee said:

So without going through every single player and sitting in a room with 100 experts which must vote on miss or hit, what's your suggestion?

 

I mean Wentz resigned with Philly, so technically that was a hit.  I get it.  

I think showing a number of metrics is the best way and the OP showed this by saying: "31% of 1st round picks got a new contract with their old team, the vast majority (50%) end upsigning elsewhere for their second contract”. You can also throw in a 3rd contract to show if they aren’t a bust over time for example.

Using 1 measurement wouldn’t suffice and the best method of having 100 experts is not resourceful as you say. 

[Vee]

11 hours ago, mihailo said:

I think showing a number of metrics is the best way and the OP showed this by saying: "31% of 1st round picks got a new contract with their old team, the vast majority (50%) end upsigning elsewhere for their second contract”. You can also throw in a 3rd contract to show if they aren’t a bust over time for example.

Using 1 measurement wouldn’t suffice and the best method of having 100 experts is not resourceful as you say. 

Then you'd have to adjust for injuries?  What about someone who kills it, then busts their leg open and can never return....no contract there.

[mihailo]

5 hours ago, Vee said:

Then you'd have to adjust for injuries?  What about someone who kills it, then busts their leg open and can never return....no contract there.

Yep, exactly. It could be great pick but an unfortunate circumstance.

[BKLYNYG]

On 5/4/2022 at 10:12 AM, EricAllenPick6 said:

Article is here: https://www.dailynorseman.com/2022/4/26/23042105/nfl-draft-pick-bust-rate-remains-very-high , but they discussed the hit rate of NFL players using a pretty simple metric: whether they got a second contract with their original team. 

So, it turns out that only 31% of 1st round picks got a new contract with their old team, the vast majority (50%) end up signing elsewhere for their second contract.  

Thought that was interesting, although I think some teams may be better and some may be worse.  

The Giants single handedly bring this average down for the entire league. 

[EricAllenPick6]

On 5/16/2022 at 12:51 AM, BKLYNYG said:

The Giants single handedly bring this average down for the entire league. 

I'd honestly love to see this broken down to see if there's any correlation between winning and singing your own players.  It seems logical to think that there is, but who knows?

[Procus]

On 5/5/2022 at 3:08 PM, Vee said:

That is certainly a flawed metric as well.   Quarterbacks live on and on and on.  Linemen.  etc;.

I think the second contract with the team that drafted them is better.  The pick is a hit if the team that drafts that person makes it a priority to resign them.

There really isn't a solid way of tracking a "hit" or "miss".

If what you're looking for is a "hit rate" - I would think signing a second contract, even as a free agent and with a team other than the one that drafted the player, is a good enough metric.  Would you say Jordan Hicks was a good draft pick who as played well in the NFL?  I would.

[nipples]

15 hours ago, Procus said:

If what you're looking for is a "hit rate" - I would think signing a second contract, even as a free agent and with a team other than the one that drafted the player, is a good enough metric.  Would you say Jordan Hicks was a good draft pick who as played well in the NFL?  I would.

I don’t think that is a good metric at all. Most first round picks are going to get a shot with a second team simply because they were a first rounder so there is perceived "untapped” talent.  Someone is going to give those guys a shot to see if a change of scenery helps. 

[SB52]

Water is wet

[nipples]

On 6/29/2022 at 11:25 PM, SB52 said:

Water is wet

Then explain dry ice

[Bwestbrook36]

1 hour ago, nipples said:

Then explain dry ice

It's a gas.... Lol

[Boogyman]

What's the hit rate for players not drafted?

[hputenis]

On 7/15/2022 at 10:15 AM, Bwestbrook36 said:

It's a gas.... Lol

That's just 1 too many burritos for lunch, fart breath!