JALEN HURTS RANKED AS A TOP-5 QUARTERBACK WHILE THROWING “IN-RHYTHM” LAST SEASON

[time2rock]

JALEN HURTS RANKED AS A TOP-5 QUARTERBACK WHILE THROWING "IN-RHYTHM” LAST SEASON

By Victor Williams

June 24, 2022

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Much of the conversation regarding Jalen Hurts pertains to his ability as a true NFL passer.

Hurts, 23, completed 61.3% of his passes in his first year as a starter, up from 52% as a rookie, but he still ranked near the bottom of the league. Only Baker Mayfield, Sam Darnold, Trevor Lawrence, Justin Fields, and Zach Wilson posted worse percentages.

Arm talent was the crux of Hurts’ pre-draft evaluations, and some of those concerns were on display in 2021. Although he struggled to hit open receivers at times, Hurts did show flashes of big-play potential in key moments en route to a Wild Card berth.

The Eagles will be banking on that version of Hurts next season.

GM Howie Roseman went all-in on his young quarterback by trading for (and paying) AJ Brown, who will now join DeVonta Smith to form one of the NFL’s top WR duos. Hurts has spent much of the offseason in California with QB-guru Tom House and his refinements have already turned some heads in OTA’s.

Coaching continuity will also play a significant role in 2022. For the first time in his football career, Hurts is participating in an offseason program with the same offensive staff he had the year prior. Familiarity is essential for QB development and Hurts has already proven effective when comfortable.

According to NextGenStats, the Eagles’ signal-caller was ranked top five while passing "in-rhythm” last season.

NextGenStats defines "in-rhythm” as dropbacks where the time to throw is between 2.5 and 4 seconds. The metric "EPA” (expected points added) measures how well a team performs relative to expectation and allows you to assign a point value to each play.

In summation: Hurts increased the Eagles’ expected points on drives by 51.8 — 5th best in the NFL. Of course, as we all know, stats and analytics can be twisted to fit any narrative we choose. But if there’s a statistic out there that has Hurts in the same company as Stafford, Brady, and Rodgers, I’ll take it.

The eye test (and more importantly, winning) tells all in the football world. Hurts needs to exhibit visible improvement in anticipatory throws, reading defenses, and pocket awareness if he hopes to silence his detractors.

His long-term status in Philadelphia depends on it.

https://thelibertyline.com/2022/06/24/jalen-hurts-throwing-in-rhythm/

[UK_EaglesFan89]

Not sure I quite agree with the definition of in rhythm here?

[brkmsn]

2 hours ago, UK_EaglesFan89 said:

Not sure I quite agree with the definition of in rhythm here?

I'm pretty sure it just means plays that aren't extended or altered due to scrambling. 

[time2rock]

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Of course, as we all know, stats and analytics can be twisted to fit any narrative we choose. 

^^^ This

Quote

The eye test (and more importantly, winning) tells all in the football world. Hurts needs to exhibit visible improvement in anticipatory throws, reading defenses, and pocket awareness if he hopes to silence his detractors.

^^^And this

Really looking forward to watching him this year to see how much improvement he made in those areas.  He needs to make significant strides ... not just marginal improvement.  Fingers crossed.  

[Rob331]

If I were Nick Siriani I would stress this. Stay in the pocket longer, trust your line, and be more successful. 

[UK_EaglesFan89]

20 hours ago, brkmsn said:

I'm pretty sure it just means plays that aren't extended or altered due to scrambling. 

Ok I guess I get that. But like Hurts should have more time than most QBs due to his OL right? So he should have an opportunity to stand back more and go through his reads.

[PoconoDon]

They can slice and dice it any way they want. Consistently being on time and on target is what's required of him. We'll see if he can deliver that throughout the 2022 season. I hope he improves dramatically and delivers all that, and even more. We'll see soon enough.

[Guest]

This might be the stupidest made up stat I have seen yet.  Gives no real context, how many passing attempts this is based on.

Stafford's rating is 3x that of Hurts, and it is probably based on 3x more attempts.

[NOTW]

These "next gen stats" get into silly territory. 

Quote

In summation: Hurts increased the Eagles’ expected points on drives by 51.8

So this stat somehow connects the time to drop back, assigns point values of expected outcome to teams (based on what?) and comes up with this metric.  Does it factor in number of attempts?  We all know that Hurts isn't a great passer and that he tucks and runs a lot, he led the team in rushing. Of course his time to throw is quick, when he's not keeping it to run he's making one read and throwing. 

The article notes a stat that matters more for QBs:

Quote

Hurts, 23, completed 61.3% of his passes in his first year as a starter, up from 52% as a rookie, but he still ranked near the bottom of the league.

 

[brkmsn]

19 hours ago, downundermike said:

This might be the stupidest made up stat I have seen yet.  Gives no real context, how many passing attempts this is based on.

Stafford's rating is 3x that of Hurts, and it is probably based on 3x more attempts.

Next Gen Stats is all about assigning numbers to every aspect of a play. A fan can watch a game and keep track of normal stats, but cannot process the information that NGS computes using and factoring variables. You've seen their commercials defining the probability of a certain play being executed successfully. This stat is not a "rating" (i.e. Stafford isn't 3X Hurts in a "rating") . They explain the "EPA" in the article. 

Quote

 

NextGenStats defines "in-rhythm” as dropbacks where the time to throw is between 2.5 and 4 seconds. The metric "EPA” (expected points added) measures how well a team performs relative to expectation and allows you to assign a point value to each play.

In summation: Hurts increased the Eagles’ expected points on drives by 51.8 — 5th best in the NFL. 

 

In the end, this is more of an analytics look than a comparison look. But when you look at the top 4 QBs on this list, it is not a surprise. The surprise here is #5. Maybe there's a reason why the coaches and personnel department that rely on analytics appear to be higher on Hurts than fans. Over and over, when arguing about football and comparing players, people will claim "times have changed." Well, the same thing applies to how we study player performance. PFF, NGS, analytics, etc... are providing us with much more detail and as things move forward, how we look at stats will constantly be changing as well. 

 

From a fan's perspective, we don't have to use the good plays to criticize a player (like Hurts). We can use the bad plays. It's the things Hurts didn't do well or do well consistently that has many concerned. This "stat" is a reflection of the good. Clearly the filter was "in rhythm." So these were plays that pretty much went according to design.

[time2rock]

1 hour ago, NOTW said:

These "next gen stats" get into silly territory. 

So this stat somehow connects the time to drop back, assigns point values of expected outcome to teams (based on what?) and comes up with this metric.  Does it factor in number of attempts?  We all know that Hurts isn't a great passer and that he tucks and runs a lot, he led the team in rushing. Of course his time to throw is quick, when he's not keeping it to run he's making one read and throwing. 

The article notes a stat that matters more for QBs:

 

Too many people digging for any nugget of information to either defend Hurts or tell everyone how bad he is ... it's getting ridiculous.  Quite honestly, none of what he did last year matters much.  All that really matters is what he is able to do - how much improvement he is able to make in his main areas of weakness - this upcoming season.

[brkmsn]

10 hours ago, time2rock said:

Too many people digging for any nugget of information to either defend Hurts or tell everyone how bad he is ... it's getting ridiculous.  Quite honestly, none of what he did last year matters much.  All that really matters is what he is able to do - how much improvement he is able to make in his main areas of weakness - this upcoming season.

People will do what people do. The way I interpret this (ranking) is that when a QB is "good," how does he measure up to others when they are good? The nature of this metric ignores the plays that don't fit the criteria (namely bad plays) --- so it's not an all comprehensive ranking. For young players like Hurts and Herbert, this is definitely a positive sign (when they play well, they play really well). But it's not something you go "all in" with. These guys have to demonstrate consistency. If you're easily sold on hot streaks, you can end up stuck with Jay Cutler. 

 

More fuel for the new fire: