This is something that has always puzzled me, but more so in recent years.

QB seems like the only position in the NFL where the starter is chosen by the coach/management for arbitrary reasons other than pure production, stats, and previous success. ie, all obvious factors that should go into the decision to pick who should start a position. In every other position/role, that would be the case.

But not for QBs

For them, the QB with the higher passer rating, or better proven track record, would often not win the starting role. We would hear vague reasons like "better fit'" for the offense, etc, but never a clear explanation.

I think Hurts is one good example. If you go on pure passing stats alone, Minshew should be the clear starter on this team but he's not. 

And another one is Nick Foles. I never understood why a good, playoff caliber team(besides us), has never given him a chance to be their starter. Only crappy teams like Jacksonville or Chicago gives him a shot and of course he bombs there because he is surrounded by mediocre talent. Like, what else does he need to prove that he can succeed on a good team? He is a Super Bowl MVP and holds several passing records. And yet most teams don't consider him a "starting caliber" QB. Sometimes the NFL just makes no sense.

36 minutes ago, opa-opa said:

This is something that has always puzzled me, but more so in recent years.

QB seems like the only position in the NFL where the starter is chosen by the coach/management for arbitrary reasons other than pure production, stats, and previous success. ie, all obvious factors that should go into the decision to pick who should start a position. In every other position/role, that would be the case.

But not for QBs

For them, the QB with the higher passer rating, or better proven track record, would often not win the starting role. We would hear vague reasons like "better fit'" for the offense, etc, but never a clear explanation.

I think Hurts is one good example. If you go on pure passing stats alone, Minshew should be the clear starter on this team but he's not. 

And another one is Nick Foles. I never understood why a good, playoff caliber team(besides us), has never given him a chance to be their starter. Only crappy teams like Jacksonville or Chicago gives him a shot and of course he bombs there because he is surrounded by mediocre talent. Like, what else does he need to prove that he can succeed on a good team? He is a Super Bowl MVP and holds several passing records. And yet most teams don't consider him a "starting caliber" QB. Sometimes the NFL just makes no sense.

Because stats don't tell the whole story. If you just go by passer rating, Kirk cousins has a better career rating than Tom Brady. 

Yes it doesn't tell the whole story but Kirk Cousins is obviously a starting caliber QB. He has earned that right with his stats. Most NFL teams should be glad to have him as a starting QB. 

I'm just wondering why teams don't simply just get the best available passer out there to start for them. Heck I don't understand why Nick Foles isn't our QB right now. I want to see him throw to AJ and Devonta. 

Heck, why don't we just get someone like Garropolo. He can't be worse than Hurts. I'm just so goddamn sick of the illogical nature of the NFL. Why not just get the BEST guy who can give you the BEST chance to win the Superbowl RIGHT NOW. Why do we need to put up with mediocrity because "he's our guy" or some lame reason?

39 minutes ago, opa-opa said:

Yes it doesn't tell the whole story but Kirk Cousins is obviously a starting caliber QB. He has earned that right with his stats. Most NFL teams should be glad to have him as a starting QB. 

I'm just wondering why teams don't simply just get the best available passer out there to start for them. Heck I don't understand why Nick Foles isn't our QB right now. I want to see him throw to AJ and Devonta. 

Heck, why don't we just get someone like Garropolo. He can't be worse than Hurts. I'm just so goddamn sick of the illogical nature of the NFL. Why not just get the BEST guy who can give you the BEST chance to win the Superbowl RIGHT NOW. Why do we need to put up with mediocrity because "he's our guy" or some lame reason?

Why did Jacksonville start Lawrence? Why don't teams get the best player at every position? 

22 minutes ago, brkmsn said:

Why did Jacksonville start Lawrence? Why don't teams get the best player at every position? 

The Jags are rebuilding. It would make no sense for them to spend big money on a QB. We have a playoff caliber roster. We just have a huge question mark at QB.

2 hours ago, opa-opa said:

This is something that has always puzzled me, but more so in recent years.

QB seems like the only position in the NFL where the starter is chosen by the coach/management for arbitrary reasons other than pure production, stats, and previous success. ie, all obvious factors that should go into the decision to pick who should start a position. In every other position/role, that would be the case.

But not for QBs

For them, the QB with the higher passer rating, or better proven track record, would often not win the starting role. We would hear vague reasons like "better fit'" for the offense, etc, but never a clear explanation.

I think Hurts is one good example. If you go on pure passing stats alone, Minshew should be the clear starter on this team but he's not. 

And another one is Nick Foles. I never understood why a good, playoff caliber team(besides us), has never given him a chance to be their starter. Only crappy teams like Jacksonville or Chicago gives him a shot and of course he bombs there because he is surrounded by mediocre talent. Like, what else does he need to prove that he can succeed on a good team? He is a Super Bowl MVP and holds several passing records. And yet most teams don't consider him a "starting caliber" QB. Sometimes the NFL just makes no sense.

They do pick starting qbs based on stats - total yards, total TDs and total turnovers. The reason qbs don't start is because they are lacking in one of those areas. Winston threw for a ton of yards and put up a ton of points, but turned the ball over. Garoppolo doesn't score TDs. Any qb in the league that puts up points, yards and limits turnovers is going to start. 

And what exactly is Hurts good at? Hogging the football? Not utilizing the full potential of his receivers? He is a one trick, or two trick pony at best. Takeoff with the ball or throw it to his right. 

There is a lot more that goes into the QB position then what you see in the comfort of your home. We have no idea what goes on behind closed doors. Could the QB be inaccurate or take too many sacks because the WRs are covered, are running the wrong routes, or the offensive scheme is predictable? Are the offensive line not blocking correctly? Are the TEs/RBs missing their assignments? Can the QB take a beating and still mentally perform or does he need a perfectly clean pocket to perform? Will he hang in for a deep pass or will always give that up and take the underneath pattern everytime, which is driving up his completion percentage but does not help win a game? Will he make the right decision in the right situation, like throw the ball when a WR is covered on 4th down but has the yardage versus throwing to an open WR that is short of the line to gain? Does he or can he have the respect of his peers and lead a group of multi millionaires towards a common goal?

Stats in football, especially for QBs, are so predicated on all the other players on the field that it would be silly to base your analysis only on that.

3 hours ago, brkmsn said:

Why did Jacksonville start Lawrence? Why don't teams get the best player at every position? 

Because Lawrence is the best QB prospect to come out of college since Luck....and I know you know that so why the stupid question 

3 hours ago, jsb235 said:

They do pick starting qbs based on stats - total yards, total TDs and total turnovers. The reason qbs don't start is because they are lacking in one of those areas. Winston threw for a ton of yards and put up a ton of points, but turned the ball over. Garoppolo doesn't score TDs. Any qb in the league that puts up points, yards and limits turnovers is going to start. 

Hmmm minshew has more total yards, total TDS, better TD and int percentage.... I think you forget Minshew is functionally mobile as well

2 hours ago, opa-opa said:

And what exactly is Hurts good at? Hogging the football? Not utilizing the full potential of his receivers? He is a one trick, or two trick pony at best. Takeoff with the ball or throw it to his right. 

QB position is the most difficult to master and so it's the most difficult for coaches and personnel people to forecast success.  There are so many factors and they're complicated by the pressure on teams to win NOW.....which limits the development time of young QBs, and when teams are changing head coaches and offensive coordinators, it sets the vast majority of young QBs back a bit.

When QBs are in a system for 3 years is when they can master it or a team knows that he can't develop much more.  In my opinion, the NFL screws up so many young QBs, by drafting them high, starting them with lousy supporting cast and expecting them to carry a team.  How many times have we seen QBs drafted in the first round only to be discarded within 3-4 years as the team seeks the "next big thing"?  Are scouts and personnel guys so bad that they miss so often or is it the way the teams are changing coaches or not supporting a young QB by surrounding him with good talent?

The eagles are doing exactly what they should do with Hurts.  Fans and media are too fickle and want a top 5 QB right away.....and that rarely happens in a players' first few years.  Sirianni and Roseman, among others, think that Hurts has the tools and the mentality to develop into a top QB.  Hurts obviously has things to improve upon.  He's been given talent around him and this year should be the determining factor to see if they want to move forward with him or start another project.

There is no formula for determining is a QB can win a super bowl or a playoff game.  But there are indications of how a QB handles adversity, how he inspires players around him and if he can perform under the pressure of a late game comeback, a playoff game or any other high tension situation.  

I guess i just want Siriani to give an honest sensible answer as to why Minshew is not the starter and Hurts is. What is the reasoning. And what evidence and stats does he have to back that up. We could be potentially wasting Kelce and BGs last year on an experiment.

Btw i would not be feeling this way if they didnt sign AJ and Kyzir and all these other great FAs. Plus the great draft we just had this might be as good a roster as it gets for a while. I believe with this roster a Garropolo or even Minshew can take us deep in the playoffs. With Hurts? I dont even know if we make the playoffs.

Anyway, if by midway thru the season we are not in playoff contention due to Hurts, i sure hope the Eagles fans raise hell and demand a change.

37 minutes ago, Shalodeep said:

Hmmm minshew has more total yards, total TDS, better TD and int percentage.... I think you forget Minshew is functionally mobile as well

Minshew had nine turnovers in 9 games in 2020. Hurts had 11 in 15 games last year. They had almost identical yards per game and TD per game numbers. Also, the team seems to think Hurts has a higher ceiling. So if you are wondering why Minshew is the second string qb, you can stop, because the answer is pretty clear.

Also, if Minshew had made a big leap as a passer, he would be carving up the second stringers. The fact that he isn't is a pretty big red flag. You just have to open your eyes to see it waving in front of you. 

5 hours ago, opa-opa said:

Yes it doesn't tell the whole story but Kirk Cousins is obviously a starting caliber QB. He has earned that right with his stats. Most NFL teams should be glad to have him as a starting QB. 

I'm just wondering why teams don't simply just get the best available passer out there to start for them. Heck I don't understand why Nick Foles isn't our QB right now. I want to see him throw to AJ and Devonta. 

Heck, why don't we just get someone like Garropolo. He can't be worse than Hurts. I'm just so goddamn sick of the illogical nature of the NFL. Why not just get the BEST guy who can give you the BEST chance to win the Superbowl RIGHT NOW. Why do we need to put up with mediocrity because "he's our guy" or some lame reason?

If that was the case, Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers, Peyton Manning, all of the greats would have never started a game because the incumbents ahead of them had better stats before they did.

Peyton threw 28 interceptions his rookie year. By your qualification, he didn’t deserve to start another game right? 
 

Like Peyton, Hurts is being developed. If he doesn’t show improvement this year, we could either say he may need another year, or use our draft assets to get someone else to develop.

4 hours ago, opa-opa said:

The Jags are rebuilding. It would make no sense for them to spend big money on a QB. We have a playoff caliber roster. We just have a huge question mark at QB.

People swore up and down we were still in a rebuild after 2021 ended. Now all of a sudden, without having played a single game, we're just a QB away (you even suggested Jimmy Crappolo).

57 minutes ago, Shalodeep said:

Because Lawrence is the best QB prospect to come out of college since Luck....and I know you know that so why the stupid question 

Yes, there was plenty of hype. Still, if you hold him to the standard you hold Hurts to, they should move on. 17 starts and only 12 TDs (compared to 17 INTs) and completed less than 60% of his passes. 

 

Let me be clear. I understand that young QBs can come into this league and struggle. Some day Lawrence may live up to the hype. Then again, he could just be the next Vinny Testaverde. If you can't figure out why I answered opa-opa's questions with those questions, then I doubt explaining it to you will make a difference. I thought it was rather obvious. 

10 minutes ago, jsb235 said:

Minshew had nine turnovers in 9 games in 2020. Hurts had 11 in 15 games last year. They had almost identical yards per game and TD per game numbers. Also, the team seems to think Hurts has a higher ceiling. So if you are wondering why Minshew is the second string qb, you can stop, because the answer is pretty clear.

Also, if Minshew had made a big leap as a passer, he would be carving up the second stringers. The fact that he isn't is a pretty big red flag. You just have to open your eyes to see it waving in front of you. 

Bahahaha so I gotta give these numbers to one of you guys again. Love it 

Minshew 22 starts, 41passing touchdowns, 12 interceptions 5969 passing yards 63.2 completion percentage  TD % - 4.8%  Int% - 1.4% 518 rushing yards 1TD

6487 total yards 295yards per game 1.9tds per game 

Hurts 19 starts 22 passing touchdowns, 13 interceptions 4205 passing yards 59% completion percentage TD% - 3.8% Int% - 2.2% 1138 rushing yards 13TD 

Hurts - 5343 total yards 281 yards per game 1.84tds per game 

So I even did you a favor doing total yards at the end and he still is a worse player. Minshew scores more, gets more yards, throws less interceptions, has a higher TD percentage, a lower int percentage and did it on a super weak team. 

So you can keep trying, but 

Remember when in a completely loaded RB draft the Eagles took Pumphrey simply based on stats? 

6 minutes ago, Shalodeep said:

Bahahaha so I gotta give these numbers to one of you guys again. Love it 

Minshew 22 starts, 41passing touchdowns, 12 interceptions 5969 passing yards 63.2 completion percentage  TD % - 4.8%  Int% - 1.4% 518 rushing yards 1TD

6487 total yards 295yards per game 1.9tds per game 

Hurts 19 starts 22 passing touchdowns, 13 interceptions 4205 passing yards 59% completion percentage TD% - 3.8% Int% - 2.2% 1138 rushing yards 13TD 

Hurts - 5343 total yards 281 yards per game 1.84tds per game 

So I even did you a favor doing total yards at the end and he still is a worse player. Minshew scores more, gets more yards, throws less interceptions, has a higher TD percentage, a lower int percentage and did it on a super weak team. 

So you can keep trying, but 

Your math is pretty crazy if you think Minshew averages almost 300 total yards a game. That is top 5 in the league and would get him $50 million a year.

The real number is about 265 yards a game, same as Hurts.

 

 

11 minutes ago, jsb235 said:

Your math is pretty crazy if you think Minshew averages almost 300 total yards a game. That is top 5 in the league and would get him $50 million a year.

The real number is about 265 yards a game, same as Hurts.

 

I simply added minshews running stats. Hurts isn't the only one who gets to use rushing yards and tds to bolster his numbers. I can show you what they look like if we do that. I actually would love to do that for you 

Minshew 5969 yards divided by 22 starts equals 271 yards a game 41tds divided by 22 equals 1.86tds a game 

Hurts 4205 yards divided by 19 starts equals 221 yards a game.  22 TDS divided by 19 starts equals 1.15 TDS a game 

13 minutes ago, jsb235 said:

 

 

20 minutes ago, Shalodeep said:

I simply added minshews running stats. Hurts isn't the only one who gets to use rushing yards and tds to bolster his numbers. I can show you what they look like if we do that. I actually would love to do that for you 

Minshew 5969 yards divided by 22 starts equals 271 yards a game 41tds divided by 22 equals 1.86tds a game 

Hurts 4205 yards divided by 19 starts equals 221 yards a game.  22 TDS divided by 19 starts equals 1.15 TDS a game 

 

Your math is still wrong. The problem is Minshew may have 22 starts, but he played significant snaps in games where he didn't start. So his yards and TD numbers are inflated. 

That's the danger of people who don't understand basic math principles trying to suddenly do statistical analysis. They end up with warped numbers. 

Just use Minshew's 2020 season. He started 8 games and played 53 percent of his team's snaps. And compare the numbers to Hurt's season last year, where he played 15 full games. Those are the numbers that will provide a decent statistical analysis on how each guy did under similar circumstances. It should also keep the math basic for you, so you won't be turning Minshew and Hurts into the most productive qbs in the league again. 

2 hours ago, opa-opa said:

I guess i just want Siriani to give an honest sensible answer as to why Minshew is not the starter and Hurts is. What is the reasoning. And what evidence and stats does he have to back that up. We could be potentially wasting Kelce and BGs last year on an experiment.

Btw i would not be feeling this way if they didnt sign AJ and Kyzir and all these other great FAs. Plus the great draft we just had this might be as good a roster as it gets for a while. I believe with this roster a Garropolo or even Minshew can take us deep in the playoffs. With Hurts? I dont even know if we make the playoffs.

Anyway, if by midway thru the season we are not in playoff contention due to Hurts, i sure hope the Eagles fans raise hell and demand a change.

Exactly what evidence do you have other then some numbers you found on ESPN, watching the game in 10 second play intervals in real time, and that time you watched some clips on YouTube?

Did you break down every play frame by frame and know what play was called? Did you also know the defense called against that play? Did you track where every player was in reference to said play and see how the QB reacted to that play when it worked and when it didn't?

Because multiple coaches have done that. They have broken down those clips and seen those plays and know what they called. They made the decision that based off of all that time spent breaking down film, talking to Hurts/Minshew/Stinnett, seeing them in practice and how they respond that Hurts has the most upside and gives them the best chance to win.

1 hour ago, jsb235 said:

Your math is still wrong. The problem is Minshew may have 22 starts, but he played significant snaps in games where he didn't start. So his yards and TD numbers are inflated. 

That's the danger of people who don't understand basic math principles trying to suddenly do statistical analysis. They end up with warped numbers. 

Just use Minshew's 2020 season. He started 8 games and played 53 percent of his team's snaps. And compare the numbers to Hurt's season last year, where he played 15 full games. Those are the numbers that will provide a decent statistical analysis on how each guy did under similar circumstances. It should also keep the math basic for you, so you won't be turning Minshew and Hurts into the most productive qbs in the league again. 

So I'll add 3 games to Minshews passing numbers since he had significant attempts and compare them to Hurts passing numbers for you

5969 divided by 25 games equals 239 a game compared to Jalen's 221 a game. Win for Minshew 

41 touchdowns divided by 25 games equals 1.64 touchdowns a game compared to Jalen's 1.15 touchdowns per game. Win for Minshew

Touchdown percentage doesn't change. Win for Minshew

Interception ratio doesn't change. Win for Minshew

Completion percentage doesn't change. Win for Minshew

So as QBs, Minshew is still better in all passing aspects. Now you can come back with whatever adjustment you need. 

10 minutes ago, Shalodeep said:

So I'll add 3 games to Minshews passing numbers since he had significant attempts and compare them to Hurts passing numbers for you

5969 divided by 25 games equals 239 a game compared to Jalen's 221 a game. Win for Minshew 

41 touchdowns divided by 25 games equals 1.64 touchdowns a game compared to Jalen's 1.15 touchdowns per game. Win for Minshew

Touchdown percentage doesn't change. Win for Minshew

Interception ratio doesn't change. Win for Minshew

Completion percentage doesn't change. Win for Minshew

So as QBs, Minshew is still better in all passing aspects. Now you can come back with whatever adjustment you need. 

Why would i come back? You have incorrectly changed the basic math involved in your statistical analysis for a third time. I tried to help you, but you are clearly not getting this numbers thing. 

8 hours ago, opa-opa said:

Yes it doesn't tell the whole story but Kirk Cousins is obviously a starting caliber QB. He has earned that right with his stats. Most NFL teams should be glad to have him as a starting QB. 

I'm just wondering why teams don't simply just get the best available passer out there to start for them. Heck I don't understand why Nick Foles isn't our QB right now. I want to see him throw to AJ and Devonta. 

Heck, why don't we just get someone like Garropolo. He can't be worse than Hurts. I'm just so goddamn sick of the illogical nature of the NFL. Why not just get the BEST guy who can give you the BEST chance to win the Superbowl RIGHT NOW. Why do we need to put up with mediocrity because "he's our guy" or some lame reason?

 I’m not sure it’s a lame reason when the GM/Owner tells the coach who’s starting. Hurts is more athletic, Minshew is probably a better passer given equal reps but not by that much. 
 It would probably be better if there was a true competition for this teams starting QB, but again, when your boss tells you who the starter is, there isn’t much Siriani can do but go out and try to win as many games as possible no matter who the QB is.