Giglio projects Jalen Hurts' 2022 season, long-term contract with Eagles

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Giglio projects Jalen Hurts' 2022 season, long-term contract with Eagles

It’s officially Jalen Hurts season.

That, of course, can mean a lot of things.

The biggest talking point and subject in Philadelphia has been set up to succeed on a talent Eagles roster. On the line: His Eagles future, the fate of the 2022 team and the biggest long-term roster decision the Eagles have had to make since the ill-fated choice of paying Carson Wentz the biggest deal in franchise history.

Here’s my guess on how Hurts will perform and what it will mean for a fascinating contract debate throughout this season and next offseason.

As you know, I believe in Hurts. This kid is a winner. He gets better every year. Arm strength concerns are (way) overblown. He has enough tangibles to complement outstanding intangibles. There’s a higher ceiling than many are willing to admit, and legitimate hope for this quarterback becoming the long-term guy in Philadelphia.

Before we get into my projection for his season, let’s take a step back with some reality on what was a more-than-respectable first year as a NFL starting quarterback in 2021.

Here’s where Hurts ranked among all quarterbacks in some key categories.

Yards per attempt: 14th
Intended air yards per pass: 4th
Yards after catch per completion: 4th
On-target throw percentage: 8th
Bad throw percentage: 3rd (as in third best)
Yards per scramble: 5th

Hurts helped turn a 4-11-1 disaster into a winning team and became the youngest quarterback to start a playoff game in Eagles history. Conservatively, Hurts played like the 20th best quarterback in pro football. He did it as a 23-year-old, in his first year learning a new system and with an overall below-average group of wide receivers, almost all of which were about as green as him. If you aren’t projecting improvement, you are either a Hurts hater or missing the boat on a player that’s gotten drastically better from his early days in the SEC.

In 2021, Hurts accounted for 26 touchdowns (16 passing, 10 rushing) in 15 starts. That was accompanied by a 61.3 completion percentage, 3,144 passing yards, and 784 rushing yards. Hurts took less sacks than the average quarterback (thanks to his outstanding mobility) and had an above-average interception percentage. Compared to his peers, Hurts was only below average in three areas: Completion percentage, touchdown percentage (on throws) and passer rating.

HERE’S ARE MY 2022 PROJECTIONS FOR HURTS:

Games started: 16
Passing touchdowns: 27
Rushing touchdowns: 6
Interceptions: 9
Passing yards: 3,750
Rushing yards: 675
Completion percentage: 64.3
Passer rating: 97.1

Most importantly, that improvement coupled with a good roster and favorable schedule will be enough to help the Eagles win the division and play late into January. By the time the offseason rolls around, it will be clear that Hurts is this franchise’s present and future. The only debate: How much should he get paid?

This is where it gets complicated, and potentially tricky for the Eagles to navigate.

Technically, the Eagles don’t have to pay Hurts next offseason. The team (and player) could simply play out 2023 at a dirt-cheap ($1.9M) salary for an above-average player at the most important position. While there’s some logic behind making Hurts prove he can continue to perform and stay healthy (not a guarantee for a mobile quarterback), the explosion of quarterback salaries will likely soon make the franchise tag less and less appealing for teams to fall back on as a crutch. There’s a very real chance a quarterback franchise tag jumps to over $45M by the time Hurts reaches free agency in 2024.

Hurts’ agent could pursue a Kirk Cousins/Lamar Jackson ‘go ahead, tag me’ strategy, but there’s risk there. One injury or year of underperformance could put Hurts on a Baker Mayfield track and far from any sort of big money. Plus, the Eagles treasure chest of future draft assets isn’t just a hedge on Hurts’ play; it represents leverage in negotiations next spring. If Hurts balks at a reasonable, yet not over-the-top offer, the Eagles have the wherewithal to maneuver for a younger, cheaper option.

So, what kind of long-term contract are we talking about then? Hurts likely (unless he exceeds my projection and/or the Eagles vie for the Super Bowl) won’t find himself in the same salary range as the elite quarterbacks in the NFL. The baseline of the best of the best is now pushing $45-50M, and will only grow from here. It’s time to reassess what the next tier is worth, and why the sticker shock could actually turn into a bargain as the cap continues to rise.

Here’s the deal that keeps popping into my mind: Four years, $140M, with $115M guaranteed.

The deal, on average, would be for $35M per season. It’s a ton of money, but will soon be looked at differently as the cap explodes thanks to the NFL’s new television deal. This year’s cap is $208M. It could be up to $225M in 2023 and $256M in 2024. Under the projected contract, Hurts would count for about 13 percent of the cap in 2024, and likely closer to the 11-12 percent range as it expires. It’s far from probative in the interest of building a deep roster on a yearly basis.

Would that kind of deal be an Eagles steal? Would Hurts regret it as quarterback salaries rise?

Perhaps it’s a potential win-win. The Eagles keep a winner and leader, avoid franchise-tag drama and salary cap upheaval, but don’t get roped into a record deal or super long-term commitment to a player that might not last physically into his 30s. Hurts would get security, and the ability to re-enter free agency in his late 20s and secure another big pay day.

Last year’s debate was about Hurts’ viability as a NFL starter. This year it’s about his worth, both to the franchise and across the league. Hurts is still here. My guess is that he will be for a while, with $140M ($115M guaranteed) in the bank.

https://www.audacy.com/94wip/sports/eagles/jalen-hurts-projection-2022-season-stats-long-term-contract