October 11, 20214 yr 20 minutes ago, mattmcginley7 said: If you sell... Assume you'll never get that same amount back ever again at that price. You're not on the inside, you're not a market maker, and you're selling what is ultimately still significantly undervalued compared to where it can be. That's playing with fire if you think you're smart enough to get a pullback and outearn the captial gains tax as well. Why would you think that? crypto consistently crashes harder than any other asset class.
October 11, 20214 yr For those predicting a dump, go on record by saying to what level and in what time frame. Eventually you'll be right if all you keep saying is, "The crash is coming" in perpetuity.
October 11, 20214 yr Author 23 minutes ago, DaEagles4Life said: It will dump like 2017 and silly to think holding on at the max peak is dumb and it's your inability to know the market. Doesn't matter if ETF come into play or not, it will dump. What if the top is 250k and the bottom is 100k? You can't predict the top and the bottom. You think you can, but you can't 20 minutes ago, TEW said: Why would you think that? crypto consistently crashes harder than any other asset class. You won't sell the top and you won't buy the bottom. Well 99% of people who are "traders" won't. Most will lose compared to holding. Even the very smart people
October 11, 20214 yr Author 24 minutes ago, DaEagles4Life said: Go look at the market in 17, it is playing out so similarly. What if 10 countries in 2022 declare Bitcoin legal tender, there are hundreds of ETF approvals, basically every bank in the United States is interoperable with Bitcoin, and the adoption rate doubles? You think we're gonna drop 85% because it did in 2017?
October 11, 20214 yr Author 14 minutes ago, we_gotta_believe said: For those predicting a dump, go on record by saying to what level and in what time frame. Eventually you'll be right if all you keep saying is, "The crash is coming" in perpetuity. Raoul Pal ran Goldman Sachs' hedge fund. He sold in 2017 right before the Bitcoin Cash fork because it was already up 5x from previous all time high and we never had a fork as contentious as this one. Over the next few years, he barely had any opportunities to buy under $5k and the captial gains tax he paid on selling probably actually never left a chance for him to even profit at the very bottom
October 11, 20214 yr 11 minutes ago, mattmcginley7 said: You won't sell the top and you won't buy the bottom. Well 99% of people who are "traders" won't. Most will lose compared to holding. Even the very smart people But that’s the beauty of such violent vol. You’re going to have opportunities to buy in lower since you most likely aren’t going to time the bottom perfectly.
October 11, 20214 yr Author 4 minutes ago, TEW said: But that’s the beauty of such violent vol. You’re going to have opportunities to buy in lower since you most likely aren’t going to time the bottom perfectly. I understand, I just think it's near impossible to predict and time. Almost no one actually executes on it
October 11, 20214 yr 28 minutes ago, mattmcginley7 said: I understand, I just think it's near impossible to predict and time. Almost no one actually executes on it Exactly.
October 11, 20214 yr you can make a mint in volatile markets if you have a sense for the floor and ceiling (which is always changing anyway) ... that's the hard part with such speculative holdings though.
October 11, 20214 yr 18 hours ago, TEW said: But that’s the beauty of such violent vol. You’re going to have opportunities to buy in lower since you most likely aren’t going to time the bottom perfectly. It would be silly to not sell at a price point that you think is near the top and take profits especially if it is 7 or 8 figures.
October 11, 20214 yr 21 hours ago, mattmcginley7 said: You won't sell the top and you won't buy the bottom. Well 99% of people who are "traders" won't. Most will lose compared to holding. Even the very smart people Which is why I say I wouldn’t recommend trading to anyone who isn’t already a good trader. But a good trader is going to make more than simply buying and holding. Heck, lots of crypto exchanges use the underlying crypto itself as both margin and payment. You’d literally end up with more of whatever crypto you’re trading.
October 12, 20214 yr All the good traders I know have spent years ridiculing the commodity they're now trading as tulips and beanie babies.
October 12, 20214 yr Author 7 hours ago, TEW said: Which is why I say I wouldn’t recommend trading to anyone who isn’t already a good trader. But a good trader is going to make more than simply buying and holding. Heck, lots of crypto exchanges use the underlying crypto itself as both margin and payment. You’d literally end up with more of whatever crypto you’re trading. I've seen so many people make a fortune just holding crypto. I don't think I've ever read of a single person trading who has beaten any person that held over the same period. It's literally 100% win rate vs trading, outside of Sam Bankman-Fried arbritage trading different exchanges
October 12, 20214 yr Author 9 hours ago, DaEagles4Life said: It would be silly to not sell at a price point that you think is near the top and take profits especially if it is 7 or 8 figures. You won't get the top or bottom right, and you probably won't ever be able to make up the difference when you sell. That's what you should expect
October 12, 20214 yr On 10/10/2021 at 11:34 AM, DaEagles4Life said: Bad take Might be gambling to you because you do not know what your doing, but I haven't lost money on a trade in last 6 months. Just figure out how to read graphs, Fib lvls, understand higher highs and higher lows, and invest in projects that aren't garbage. Someone who is an avid gambler and good at it could say the same thing about their gambling. It's not gambling to them because they know what they're doing, and that's why they win money.
October 12, 20214 yr 3 hours ago, Phillyterp85 said: Someone who is an avid gambler and good at it could say the same thing about their gambling. It's not gambling to them because they know what they're doing, and that's why they win money. Exactly. Poker, sports gambling, trading... very few people have an edge, but those that do can be very profitable
October 12, 20214 yr Author 3 hours ago, TEW said: Exactly. Poker, sports gambling, trading... very few people have an edge, but those that do can be very profitable This is not the same. There's a constant positive inertia that exists and when you hop off, you play a dangerous game that you never needed to play in order to win
October 12, 20214 yr 14 minutes ago, mattmcginley7 said: This is not the same. There's a constant positive inertia that exists and when you hop off, you play a dangerous game that you never needed to play in order to win It’s very much the same. Especially sports betting and trading. They are both just identifying market inefficiencies. Also, this idea that crypto inevitably climes to infinity is just wrong. There are plenty of events that could render it worthless or send it into a structural price decline. There are both known and unknown risks, and of the known risks, I think the BTC camp severely underestimate the known regulatory and headline risk. The mentality that you’re using that BTC only goes up is how you end up with financial catastrophes. Even PlanB uses his S2F model to sell tops and buy bottoms, and I don’t think anyone would call him a BTC bear. Basically, there is a big difference between being bullish on an asset and being a religious zealot for the asset. The latter can lose you a lot of money.
October 12, 20214 yr 46 minutes ago, TEW said: It’s very much the same. Especially sports betting and trading. They are both just identifying market inefficiencies. Also, this idea that crypto inevitably climes to infinity is just wrong. There are plenty of events that could render it worthless or send it into a structural price decline. There are both known and unknown risks, and of the known risks, I think the BTC camp severely underestimate the known regulatory and headline risk. The mentality that you’re using that BTC only goes up is how you end up with financial catastrophes. Even PlanB uses his S2F model to sell tops and buy bottoms, and I don’t think anyone would call him a BTC bear. Basically, there is a big difference between being bullish on an asset and being a religious zealot for the asset. The latter can lose you a lot of money. I think matt's position is just a distillation of the existing mantra that time in the market beats trying to time the market. For the S&P, you can take roughly any rolling 15-year window and always come out in the black. By that somewhat tortured framing, the S&P "only goes up" so the question is whether a similar dynamic applies to BTC. Thus far, in its extremely short history, we're at I believe a minimum 4-year rolling window, meaning if you bought BTC at any point since its inception and held it for at least 4 years, you'd have made money (in many cases, a lot of it.) So with that framing, sure, BTC "only goes up". Clearly this type of thinking is dangerous for the vast majority of people for obvious reasons, just as it is for those thinking they know where support levels are and have undue confidence in how to call bottoms or tops. The issue with the increased volatility is that everything gets cranked up to 11, including those fallible and irrational human emotions which can easily lay waste to anyone's best laid plans.
October 12, 20214 yr 46 minutes ago, mattmcginley7 said: This is not the same. There's a constant positive inertia that exists and when you hop off, you play a dangerous game that you never needed to play in order to win Many people said the same thing about the housing market in the early 2000s. And don't get me wrong, while at one my point I may have been "anti crypto", I have bought into the idea that assets like Bitcoin and Etherum have a positive outlook. But they are still very volatile. Someone who bought Bitcoin in 2018 at $20k would have had to wait almost 3 years for the value to break even after it crashed in 2018. Many people don't have the ability to let their capital sit for 3 years in a single asset in hopes that it's going to climb back up. Because there's no guarantee that it was going to. But there's also what, like 6,000 cyrptocurrencies out there? So that's where it again gets a bit like gambling in picking the right one. Those that know the game are going to succeed, and many won't. Then there's the speculation game with the "meme" coins. I've heard a lot of people refer to them as "sh-t" coins, which I'm not doubting (I don't know enough either way). But those "sh-t" coins have also made some people a lot of money. Someone who would have put $1,000 into Dogecoin in May of 2020 at $.0025 and then sold in May of 2021 at $0.50 would have made over $200,000. So there's the gambling aspect again, of people trying to pick the right cheap coin that's going to have an explosion of growth and then be able to cash out. It's why people play a 16-team parlay. Sure the odds of hitting it are low, but the payout is HUGE.
October 12, 20214 yr 2 minutes ago, Phillyterp85 said: Many people said the same thing about the housing market in the early 2000s. And don't get me wrong, while at one my point I may have been "anti crypto", I have bought into the idea that assets like Bitcoin and Etherum have a positive outlook. But they are still very volatile. Someone who bought Bitcoin in 2018 at $20k would have had to wait almost 3 years for the value to break even after it crashed in 2018. Many people don't have the ability to let their capital sit for 3 years in a single asset in hopes that it's going to climb back up. Because there's no guarantee that it was going to. But there's also what, like 6,000 cyrptocurrencies out there? So that's where it again gets a bit like gambling in picking the right one. Those that know the game are going to succeed, and many won't. Then there's the speculation game with the "meme" coins. I've heard a lot of people refer to them as "sh-t" coins, which I'm not doubting (I don't know enough either way). But those "sh-t" coins have also made some people a lot of money. Someone who would have put $1,000 into Dogecoin in May of 2020 at $.0025 and then sold in May of 2021 at $0.50 would have made over $200,000. So there's the gambling aspect again, of people trying to pick the right cheap coin that's going to have an explosion of growth and then be able to cash. It's why people play a 16-team parlay. Sure the odds of hitting it are low, but the payout is HUGE. The parallel here is with penny stocks vs the more established ones that compromise a major index. Sure you can make bank on penny stocks just as easily as you can lose your shirt. But if you have faith in the overall market, better to go with a few of the more established coins. That being said, so that nobody confuses me for a shill, I still advise investing no more than 1% of your overall portfolio in cryptocurrencies precisely because of the massive volatility.
October 12, 20214 yr Author Bitcoin is not gambling. Ethereum is not gambling. These are world changing ideas that experience significant network effects that have a faster adoption rate than the internet or anything else in history. You can hold them for a very long time and make life changing gains. But everyone would rather play with fire and gamble I'm up over 10,000% on my first BTC buy. Over 18,000% on my first ETH buy. Over 240,000% on my HEX buy. Why the hell would I ever consider trading when these are the returns I'm offered for simply waiting and risk losing this? I've been in this for a very long time and this is where I spend most of my efforts at this point. I'm going to make a fortune because I understand crypto and risk adjusted probability and math. If you want to attempt to become a trader and risk losing it all, that's on you at this point. I think it's beyond greed and flies in the face of logic
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