October 18, 20215 yr 1 hour ago, greenskeeper said: FWIW, I bought some stock during the covid market crash, just checked relative to bitcoin and the stock is higher than bitcoin in that time frame. So there are other "options" out there to make good money besides crypo. As with any investment, if you can get in early before it goes mainstream you're going to make bank. However getting in early can also result in losing all of your investment. I’d be interested to know what stock. BTC is up almost 20X trough to peak. That’s kind of the attraction of crypto — the vol is insane. Definitely agree there is a lot of money to be made outside of crypto though.
October 18, 20215 yr Author 4 hours ago, TEW said: I’m hardly a fan of WGB as most can see but he’s right on this. BTC is the least volatile crypto and ~80% crashes are normal. That is INSANE volatility. Most people can’t stomach 80% losses in a year. Warren buffet has a famous saying, the first two rules of investing are: 1) don’t lose money 2) don’t lose money Because mathematically it becomes incredibly hard to recover from accumulated losses. If you want to yolo into it, bully to you. I genuinely hope it works out. But the idea that you are guaranteed exponential returns over the long run is misguided. There are so many things that could happen to pull the rug out from under people, and that’s assuming someone is buying with a 5+ year time horizon. Warren Buffet called Bitcoin "rat poison squared". He doesn't have much credibility in crypto, and by much I mean 0 You are OBSESSED with talking about the downside. Obsessed. If you bought any of the tops right before it crashed, you are up huge. Life changing gains. To acknowledge the downside you must simultaneously acknowledge the upside, and most importantly, you must acknowledge the risk adjusted returns are so heavily weighted to the upside. I've invested probably 10% of what I've made since early 2017 and it's now beyond life changing. Almost anyone could have done this. I've never been in a bad position, I have plenty of money in my bank account and in other investments. If my account dropped 90%, I'd survive just fine. But 1% is **** made
October 18, 20215 yr Author 3 hours ago, Boogyman said: Fanboyism has many forms, but it's always easy to spot. I'm the only one that has no ego on this. Literally the only one. Everyone is so concerned about being safe, it seems reasonable to be that. The math and fundamentals don't care about safety. They are what they are. Until Bitcoin is at minimum gold's market cap, the upside will vastly outweigh any of the stupid pointless volatility everyone is so concerned about
October 18, 20215 yr 17 minutes ago, mattmcginley7 said: Warren Buffet called Bitcoin "rat poison squared". He doesn't have much credibility in crypto, and by much I mean 0 You are OBSESSED with talking about the downside. Obsessed. If you bought any of the tops right before it crashed, you are up huge. Life changing gains. To acknowledge the downside you must simultaneously acknowledge the upside, and most importantly, you must acknowledge the risk adjusted returns are so heavily weighted to the upside. I've invested probably 10% of what I've made since early 2017 and it's now beyond life changing. Almost anyone could have done this. I've never been in a bad position, I have plenty of money in my bank account and in other investments. If my account dropped 90%, I'd survive just fine. But 1% is **** made Every investor who knows what they are doing is obsessed with down side. It’s literally the most important aspect of investing. The entire world economy is based off of it.
October 18, 20215 yr Author 1 minute ago, TEW said: Every investor who knows what they are doing is obsessed with down side. It’s literally the most important aspect of investing. The entire world economy is based off of it. I think everyone I'm talking to is stuck in slightly beat out inflation mode and don't try to make any money. That's not my goal. My goal is to invest in brilliant ideas only with disproportionate upside 2 minutes ago, JohnSnowsHair said: Chances BTC drops 80% in the next few months? Asking for a friend... 0%
October 18, 20215 yr Author Former Goldman Sachs hedgefund manager has 99% of liquid in crypto, majority of that being Ethereum then Bitcoin. Unstoppable code and unstoppable money are two of the most important technological advances for humanity, is being adopted at a rate faster than the internet, is about to continue its bull run, but you want to be super cautious. Lol. That's all I can say And let's not forget, both the SEC and Jerome Powell both said they have 0 intention of banning Bitcoin, a country just adopted it as a currency, it is about to be approved for a ton of ETFs, and we're still concerned about the regulatory risks? Lol. That's all I can say
October 18, 20215 yr 55 minutes ago, JohnSnowsHair said: Chances BTC drops 80% in the next few months? Asking for a friend... My best guess... We probably go parabolic over the next 3-6 months then it comes crashing down. There are some things different this time around compared to previous cycles: the amount of institutional money involved, the more inflationary environment, more mature on and off ramps, etc. It will be interesting to see how BTC performs in what increasingly looks like a stagflationary next couple of years.
October 18, 20215 yr 53 minutes ago, mattmcginley7 said: Former Goldman Sachs hedgefund manager has 99% of liquid in crypto, majority of that being Ethereum then Bitcoin. Unstoppable code and unstoppable money are two of the most important technological advances for humanity, is being adopted at a rate faster than the internet, is about to continue its bull run, but you want to be super cautious. Lol. That's all I can say And let's not forget, both the SEC and Jerome Powell both said they have 0 intention of banning Bitcoin, a country just adopted it as a currency, it is about to be approved for a ton of ETFs, and we're still concerned about the regulatory risks? Lol. That's all I can say Funny because he called it all a huge bubble in a Forbes article. You really just scrape for whatever supports your beliefs. When in reality it is a bunch of people richer than you trying to pump the value of their holdings.
October 18, 20215 yr Author 8 minutes ago, BBE said: Funny because he called it all a huge bubble in a Forbes article. You really just scrape for whatever supports your beliefs. When in reality it is a bunch of people richer than you trying to pump the value of their holdings. You're an idiot
October 18, 20215 yr 1 hour ago, mattmcginley7 said: I think everyone I'm talking to is stuck in slightly beat out inflation mode and don't try to make any money. That's not my goal. My goal is to invest in brilliant ideas only with disproportionate upside Dude, we all want investments with multiples of upside to our capital at risk. Asymmetry is what everyone wants. But we also don’t want to lose money. You have to temper the asymmetry with the uncertainty of possibly losing everything you put into it. Look up Kelly Criterion. Not to throw this back in the dumpster fire of sports betting, but it’s a model of how much capital to put at risk on an option. There is a reason the % of capital is so low even on high expected win % bets. It’s because even great bets with high probability and high upside can lose. Crypto can make you very wealthy very quickly, yes, but it can also lose you a lot of money very quickly. This certainty you speak of, with 100% conviction on the most volatile asset class on earth, it’s just crazy. The smartest investors in the world, most of whom probably are or have been involved in crypto in some fashion, don’t have that kind of certainty. If someone like Soros or Druckenmiller doesn’t have 100% conviction, maybe take a pause? A quick self reflection? I don’t know how old you are, but I’ve been through a few recessions at this point in my life. I’ve seen market crashes and I’ve seen people lose everything. I’ve seen people say they were 100% certain on Dotcom stocks and housing. And I’ve seen them ruined. It’s not something I ever want for myself or anyone else. You can take a piece of your wealth, put it in crypto, and have great upside without risking being completely wiped out. Just my $0.02. But you do you. Believe me, if BTC goes to infinity, I’ll be just as happy as you.
October 18, 20215 yr Author 3 minutes ago, TEW said: Dude, we all want investments with multiples of upside to our capital at risk. Asymmetry is what everyone wants. But we also don’t want to lose money. You have to temper the asymmetry with the uncertainty of possibly losing everything you put into it. Look up Kelly Criteria. Not to throw this back in the dumpster fire of sports betting, but it’s a model of how much capital to put at risk on an option. There is a reason the % of capital is so low. It’s because even great bets with high probability and high upside can lose. Crypto can make you very wealthy very quickly, yes, but it can also lose you a lot of money very quickly. This certainty you speak of, with 100% conviction on the most volatile asset class on earth, it’s just crazy. The smartest investors in the world, most of whom probably are or have been involved in crypto in some fashion, don’t have that kind of certainty. If someone like Soros or Druckenmiller doesn’t have 100% conviction, maybe take a pause? A quick self reflection? I don’t know how old you are, but I’ve been through a few recessions at this point in my life. I’ve seen market crashes and I’ve seen people lose everything. I’ve seen people say they were 100% certain on Dotcom stocks and housing. And I’ve seen them ruined. It’s not something I ever want for myself or anyone else. You can take a piece of your wealth, put it in crypto, and have great upside without risking being completely wiped out. Just my $0.02. But you do you. Believe me, if BTC goes to infinity, I’ll be just as happy as you. Infinite possibilities exist of course, it's just so weighted to the upside that I think it's as good as an opportunity we'll ever see in our lives. I don't want to miss that. My allocation has absolutely taken into consideration any potential risks, I've made it pretty clear that I'll be fine no matter what happens Drunkenmiller and Soros don't operate for maximum return. They'll gladly take whatever position represents a fair amount of upside with as little risk as possible and understandably so, they ain't trying to achieve financial freedom anymore. You're more in that direction than I am. I'll reach a point where I'll have everything I could have ever wanted and then my position will change in terms of risk profile. I'll always be in brilliant ideas, but maintaining wealth will be become a larger priority I actually do appreciate your concern and thoughts btw. I value your opinion even if I don't always agree
October 18, 20215 yr 9 hours ago, mattmcginley7 said: I think everyone I'm talking to is stuck in slightly beat out inflation mode and don't try to make any money. That's not my goal. My goal is to invest in brilliant ideas only with disproportionate upside 0% Give me a 100k and I’ll make you millions.
October 18, 20215 yr Author 1 hour ago, greenskeeper said: Bulls make money, Bears make money, Pigs get slaughtered. That quote for crypto is trash. Actually that quote in general is poop lol "Patient long term investors in brilliant ideas get rich"
October 19, 20215 yr 13 hours ago, mattmcginley7 said: That quote for crypto is trash. Actually that quote in general is poop lol "Patient long term investors in brilliant ideas get rich" Sorry man if you don't sell at the end of this bull run then you are foolish. Always take profits. And this is good news for Barry and Grayscale if gets approved.
October 19, 20215 yr Author 1 hour ago, DaEagles4Life said: Sorry man if you don't sell at the end of this bull run then you are foolish. Always take profits. And this is good news for Barry and Grayscale if gets approved. Show me where in 2017 you sold the top and bought in big after it down at least 50% Obviously selling the top is great. But you'll get it wrong and you won't buy the bottom. I can guarantee it
October 19, 20215 yr 1 hour ago, Toty said: Got in on BITO at $41.15/share this morning (but with very little investment). Guess we'll see what happens. If you’re going to be buying BTC, forget the ETF. Buy the actual coin yourself. The entire purpose of the thing is self custody and you’ll avoid a ton a bunch of fees.
October 19, 20215 yr 1 hour ago, mattmcginley7 said: Show me where in 2017 you sold the top and bought in big after it down at least 50% Obviously selling the top is great. But you'll get it wrong and you won't buy the bottom. I can guarantee it My bank account and the number of coins I own. Let me watch my 7 figures dwindle down to 6 because I know it will rise again. Or I can travel the world, buy a new house, have my son enjoy experiences that he will never forget, and still be able to buy back in when we go into a bear market. Life is fleeting, I'll always take the money now.
October 19, 20215 yr 9 minutes ago, DaEagles4Life said: My bank account and the number of coins I own. Let me watch my 7 figures dwindle down to 6 because I know it will rise again. Or I can travel the world, buy a new house, have my son enjoy experiences that he will never forget, and still be able to buy back in when we go into a bear market. Life is fleeting, I'll always take the money now. Obviously watching numbers go up and down on a computer screen is more fulfilling than doing all that nonsense.
October 19, 20215 yr Author 26 minutes ago, DaEagles4Life said: My bank account and the number of coins I own. Let me watch my 7 figures dwindle down to 6 because I know it will rise again. Or I can travel the world, buy a new house, have my son enjoy experiences that he will never forget, and still be able to buy back in when we go into a bear market. Life is fleeting, I'll always take the money now. Sure, show me on Binance/Coinbase/Gemini back in 2017 where you sold between 18-20k
October 19, 20215 yr Author 23 minutes ago, Boogyman said: Obviously watching numbers go up and down on a computer screen is more fulfilling than doing all that nonsense. Almost as fulfilling as complaining about people from a computer screen who watch numbers go up and down on a computer screen Also it's the exact opposite. Trying to trade is time consuming. Holding for years is not
October 19, 20215 yr 1 minute ago, mattmcginley7 said: Almost as fulfilling as complaining about people from a computer screen watching numbers go up and down on a computer screen You read that as a complaint? It was a comment with a bit of mild sarcasm because what he described sounded a lot better than watching the price of Bitcoin go up and down. I guess I was actually complimenting him as it seems he is living a pretty pleasant and full life. I can explain it more if you still need help. I'm curious about what part of it you took as a complaint, so please explain if you can. Also I would say stop being so sensitive about this crap, but it's actually pretty entertaining. Continue.
October 19, 20215 yr 19 minutes ago, mattmcginley7 said: Sure, show me on Binance/Coinbase/Gemini back in 2017 where you sold between 18-20k I mean, if we still had the old EMB you could see that I called the top in that range. Maybe it was 16K or something like that, but the bubble wasn't hard to spot. When you start seeing ads targeted at old people on CNBC, that's almost always the top. You can go back to the dotcom bubble or housing bubble and you'll see the same thing. I do think it's a bit different this time around, and I do think the vol will decrease with time, but to act like we aren't going to have another 50% correction ever again is a bit crazy given its history. We just had one a few months ago. Here's an idea for you guys, and is something I've done: if you're up 10X or whatever, you can just take your initial investment out and essentially have a free position. Or take out your principal plus some profit. You don't have to sell everything at once, either. You can start taking small bits out on the way up. That way you won't hit the absolute top, but you won't totally miss the top either. You don't have to buy in all at once either, for that matter. When you get that huge swing down, you can start buying in at small amounts. Same thing -- you won't time the absolute bottom but you won't miss it completely either. Again, I'll go back to Buffet: Rule #1 -- don't lose money. Rule #2 -- don't lose money Getting your initial investment out will let you sleep a lot easier and it'll give you some capital for any other opportunities that might arise. Maybe take out a little bit of profit as well to make the trade profitable. From there, everything else is gravy. Not financial advice, just something to think about.
October 19, 20215 yr 1 hour ago, mattmcginley7 said: Almost as fulfilling as complaining about people from a computer screen who watch numbers go up and down on a computer screen Also it's the exact opposite. Trying to trade is time consuming. Holding for years is not So it takes you a few days or weeks to sell? How long between you wanting or maybe needing some cash and actually having it in a bank account?
Create an account or sign in to comment