1 minute ago, mattmcginley7 said:

"You should participate in as big a way as you are comfortable" or said another way "invest what you're okay with losing"

1% is crap for most people

The risks are short term volatility with long term price appreciation. It's been the way since the beginning

I've been in crypto for 8 years. EIGHT. You really think I don't understand the risks? 

So then not the complete opposite of me saying don't put all your eggs in that basket. Words, dude.

2 minutes ago, we_gotta_believe said:

So then not the complete opposite of me saying don't put all your eggs in that basket. Words, dude.

Use some common sense and stop being so literal. The same thing about my post comparing Ethereum to Apple. Clearly it's more nuanced and that's a rough comparison, and my last sentence on my last post clearly isn't advocating for someone to put every single penny into Bitcoin. But certainly more than dust, and not bill money.

Just now, mattmcginley7 said:

Use some common sense and stop being so literal. The same thing about my post comparing Ethereum to Apple. Clearly it's more nuanced and that's a rough comparison, and my last sentence on my last post clearly isn't advocating for someone to put every single penny into Bitcoin. But certainly more than dust, and not bill money.

No it's a bad comparison. Like, really bad.

1 minute ago, we_gotta_believe said:

No it's a bad comparison. Like, really bad.

Yeah I suppose the general purpose blockchain that is built to allow developers to publish decentralized applications is nothing at all like Apple's OS that is built to allow developers to publish applications

 

1 minute ago, mattmcginley7 said:

Yeah I suppose the general purpose blockchain that is built to allow developers to publish decentralized applications is nothing at all like Apple's OS that is built to allow developers to publish applications

 

dude

2 minutes ago, we_gotta_believe said:

dude

You are either so literal that you are entirely missing the point that both's primary purpose is building applications or you have no idea what Ethereum is

Just now, mattmcginley7 said:

You are either so literal that you are entirely missing the point that both's primary purpose is building applications or you have no idea what Ethereum is

Ok I'll play along...

Since you're so immersed in the details, please tell me about the kernel of this os. What's the max size is its instruction set? Does it support virtualization? What's the file system like? 

1 minute ago, we_gotta_believe said:

Ok I'll play along...

Since you're so immersed in the details, please tell me about the kernel of this os. What's the max size is its instruction set? Does it support virtualization? What's the file system like? 

Too literal. Got it

Just now, mattmcginley7 said:

Too literal. Got it

Don't actually understand the words you're using, got it.

55 minutes ago, we_gotta_believe said:

Don't actually understand the words you're using, got it.

Somehow I use Ethereum and its applications and Apple and its applications every day just fine and have made a small fortune on Ethereum alone. But yes, man with dust or 0 ETH exposure thinks he won argument by taking my words clearly out of context. You can win your stupid game. Arguing with you is awful 

6 hours ago, mattmcginley7 said:

Somehow I use Ethereum and its applications and Apple and its applications every day just fine and have made a small fortune on Ethereum alone. But yes, man with dust or 0 ETH exposure thinks he won argument by taking my words clearly out of context. You can win your stupid game. Arguing with you is awful 

 Yeah that's me, Mr. Anti-Crypto. Just like all those times I called this a fad, tulips, beanie babies, baseball cards, etc. Nailed it.

13 minutes ago, we_gotta_believe said:

 Yeah that's me, Mr. Anti-Crypto. Just like all those times I called this a fad, tulips, beanie babies, baseball cards, etc. Nailed it.

I didn't call you anti crypto. I said you take things out of context to argue

https://twitter.com/sec_investor_ed/status/1448710749921087488?s=21

 

It's happening 

1 hour ago, we_gotta_believe said:

Uh yeah, exactly, hence why the vig makes a huge difference. It's a critical factor when your long term hit percentages teeter on the margin of barely breaking even if you're not hitting on over 53% of your plays (normalized units.)

As for running this as a "business", yeah as I said, there are work-arounds when it comes to hard caps or temp limits. You've likely already have access to at least 8-10 domestic books now, in addition to all the existing offshores you can fund with bitcoin and the like. Then there's out of state domestics accessible via VPNs, GPS spoofing is trivial, etc, and if you know a few guys you can convince to join you, those caps all but disappear. 

You won't get banned outright from any of them unless you start arbing props, abusing promos, or hammering obscure leagues. Maybe a book or two will gimp you down to $100 bets but that's fairly uncommon from what I've seen if you're just making straight plays, but I've never ever heard of $20 bet limits though. If you've actually had this happen to you, I'd be interested to hear more details. 

The vig only makes a difference when it's efficient placed. But sports betting markets are usually not all that efficient and most books want to carry a small or no position. Take a classic dime line, team A at -110 team B at +100. Implied probability for team A is 52%.If your model says team A is 60% to win, you've got an 8% edge and you slam it. If they change the vig to 20 cents, but team B moves to -110, absolutely nothing has changed for team A. You still slam that bet. That's why the price of the bet is what matters. Ignore the vig if you're looking to build a betting model. It's really irrelevant to if you should place a bet or not. Focus on price.

Think of it like this: you either have an edge or you don't, right? The vig is built into the implied odds, regardless of what the vig is: dime line, quarter, doesn't matter. So do you have an edge? If yes, and it meets whatever other parameters you've built into your model, then bet. If no, then do not bet. You're going to be winning in the long term if you have an actual edge. And if you don't have an edge, you're not taking risk because you're not betting. Agreed? Given that, the limiting factor is scale. Can I put enough money on the table to make this worth the hassle? If you can't scale up, it doesn't matter if there is zero vig  -- it's just not worth your time.

And yeah, I've been limited or banned by more books than I can count. Lowest limit I've had was $15. At that point they were just looking for free information since I usually beat closing odds. The bottom line is the more you win the more you get limited/banned on most books. My experience is they crack down during the MLB season because of the volume of games you can bet and the maturity of the market.  If you're maxing out multiple MLB games a day as soon as the odds get posted, and you're consistently beating the close, and you're consistently winning, you're going to get limited to a token amount of money or banned outright. They're quick to figure out who knows what they're doing in baseball and to a slightly lesser extent, basketball. Lots of stats and lots of games to quickly discover if you're lucky or smart. US books are the absolute worst in my experience. They're all targeted at schmucks betting on their favorite team. A few international books have winners welcome, Pinny being the obvious example, but they have lower limits for early betting, and when you pump a couple max bets in a row the odds move quickly, so to scale up without moving the odds you need to be betting in a popular sport against a popular team that is a favorite.

11 minutes ago, TEW said:

The vig only makes a difference when it's efficient placed. But sports betting markets are usually not all that efficient and most books want to carry a small or no position. Take a classic dime line, team A at -110 team B at +100. Implied probability for team A is 52%.If your model says team A is 60% to win, you've got an 8% edge and you slam it. If they change the vig to 20 cents, but team B moves to -110, absolutely nothing has changed for team A. You still slam that bet. That's why the price of the bet is what matters. Ignore the vig if you're looking to build a betting model. It's really irrelevant to if you should place a bet or not. Focus on price.

Think of it like this: you either have an edge or you don't, right? The vig is built into the implied odds, regardless of what the vig is: dime line, quarter, doesn't matter. So do you have an edge? If yes, and it meets whatever other parameters you've built into your model, then bet. If no, then do not bet. You're going to be winning in the long term if you have an actual edge. And if you don't have an edge, you're not taking risk because you're not betting. Agreed? Given that, the limiting factor is scale. Can I put enough money on the table to make this worth the hassle? If you can't scale up, it doesn't matter if there is zero vig  -- it's just not worth your time.

And yeah, I've been limited or banned by more books than I can count. Lowest limit I've had was $15. At that point they were just looking for free information since I usually beat closing odds. The bottom line is the more you win the more you get limited/banned on most books. My experience is they crack down during the MLB season because of the volume of games you can bet and the maturity of the market.  If you're maxing out multiple MLB games a day as soon as the odds get posted, and you're consistently beating the close, and you're consistently winning, you're going to get limited to a token amount of money or banned outright. They're quick to figure out who knows what they're doing in baseball and to a slightly lesser extent, basketball. Lots of stats and lots of games to quickly discover if you're lucky or smart. US books are the absolute worst in my experience. They're all targeted at schmucks betting on their favorite team. A few international books have winners welcome, Pinny being the obvious example, but they have lower limits for early betting, and when you pump a couple max bets in a row the odds move quickly, so to scale up without moving the odds you need to be betting in a popular sport against a popular team that is a favorite.

"It's really irrelevant, it just so happens to be a huge factor in how many plays get greenlit by my model" says the handicapping expert

 

Just now, we_gotta_believe said:

"It's really irrelevant, it just so happens to be a huge factor in how many plays get greenlit by my model" says the handicapping expert

 

Yes, it is absolutely irrelevant to the model. It isn't an input at all. And FYI, this is true of virtually every betting model because all that matters is price.

Whatever your're investing in.... have an exit strategy and follow it.

26 minutes ago, TEW said:

Yes, it is absolutely irrelevant to the model. It isn't an input at all. And FYI, this is true of virtually every betting model because all that matters is price.

First it's matt telling me eth is like ios and now this. A book with a high vig means worse prices across the board. Not sure how that translates in your mind as "ignore the vig, it's irrelevant". If you're arbing, those types of books mean you can rarely use them to lay off as a result. For model based action, those books mean your model will reject more plays from them as you already said.

If all you have access to are books like this then you are at a huge disadvantage for long-term profitability. Domestically, a kambi book is usually gonna be more attractive than a book like MGM because of the reduced vig. For offshores, pinny being far more attractive than bovada for the same reason. Some books cater to squares and usually shade towards a favorite over a dog, and those typically will also have higher vigs. But even normalized, some are gonna be popping up on arbing line services way more than others. What do you think is the reason for one book having consistently better prices on average than another book? It's the vig, dummy. Did you think there wasn't a vig on ML bets or something? A book takes a cut on all bets, and some are naturally gonna take more than others. Like I said originally, if you're always taking a 9% hit on profits, you're gonna have a much more difficult time than if you are able to avoid that with a 4% hit or less. 

1 hour ago, we_gotta_believe said:

First it's matt telling me eth is like ios and now this. A book with a high vig means worse prices across the board. Not sure how that translates in your mind as "ignore the vig, it's irrelevant". If you're arbing, those types of books mean you can rarely use them to lay off as a result. For model based action, those books mean your model will reject more plays from them as you already said.

If all you have access to are books like this then you are at a huge disadvantage for long-term profitability. Domestically, a kambi book is usually gonna be more attractive than a book like MGM because of the reduced vig. For offshores, pinny being far more attractive than bovada for the same reason. Some books cater to squares and usually shade towards a favorite over a dog, and those typically will also have higher vigs. But even normalized, some are gonna be popping up on arbing line services way more than others. What do you think is the reason for one book having consistently better prices on average than another book? It's the vig, dummy. Did you think there wasn't a vig on ML bets or something? A book takes a cut on all bets, and some are naturally gonna take more than others. Like I said originally, if you're always taking a 9% hit on profits, you're gonna have a much more difficult time than if you are able to avoid that with a 4% hit or less. 

No, it doesn't. Different books have different odds and straddles which is exactly how arb is even possible. Plenty of books with higher vig have better prices that give you a higher edge than books with less vig. Again, Pinny is the perfect example. They have low vig BUT because they're the sharpest book around, they place the straddle of the vig very accurately which means even though they take less of a spread between their odds, most books with higher vig are easier to beat. Because price is all that matters in the end.

2 minutes ago, TEW said:

No, it doesn't. Different books have different odds and straddles which is exactly how arb is even possible. Plenty of books with higher vig have better prices that give you a higher edge than books with less vig. Again, Pinny is the perfect example. They have low vig BUT because they're the sharpest book around, they place the straddle of the vig very accurately which means even though they take less of a spread between their odds, most books with higher vig are easier to beat. Because price is all that matters in the end.

You're talking about line shopping. And guess which books will be flagged the least by line services that automate shopping? Yep, books with a high vig. Pinny has the best prices because they have the lowest vig. Yes, they're also the sharpest but if you're arbing, which is line shopping on steroids, then you're gonna find yourself using pinny to lay off probably more than any other book. Why? Because they have the lowest vig, which is all it's ever been about over the long term. Beat the vig, beat the book. It's hilarious how you're disputing the most basic principle of handicapping right now.

1 hour ago, we_gotta_believe said:

You're talking about line shopping. And guess which books will be flagged the least by line services that automate shopping? Yep, books with a high vig. Pinny has the best prices because they have the lowest vig. Yes, they're also the sharpest but if you're arbing, which is line shopping on steroids, then you're gonna find yourself using pinny to lay off probably more than any other book. Why? Because they have the lowest vig, which is all it's ever been about over the long term. Beat the vig, beat the book. It's hilarious how you're disputing the most basic principle of handicapping right now.

Line shopping? Shopping? Like where you buy something? At a price? You mean it's price that matters and not the vig? But why would I need to shop when low vig = better prices "across the board?"  

Right now, let's look at an example.

Pinny currently has the Dolphins 1.653 or -153 and the Jaguars 2.38 or +138 for a vig of 2.49%.

Bet365 has the Dolphins at -167 and the Jags at +145 for a vig of 3.36%.

But wait, Bet365 is giving you a better price on the Jags even though they have a ~50% higher vig! How can this possibly be? How can the WGB vig theory of everything possibly be wrong? Well, because WGB doesn't know what the hell he's talking about. Higher vig doesn't mean worse prices across the board. At all. In any way, shape or form. Pinny doesn't have the best prices. They have the most efficient prices. There is a big, big difference and it's what allows them to have a lower vig. If you want an edge, Pinny is the absolute last place you want to be betting regardless of how low their low vig might be. It's the hardest book to beat for a reason.

And FYI, you'd want to use betfair exchange as much as possible to arb because they do not have a straddle at all since it's an exchange with bettors acting as market makers/takers and they only charge commission on your cumulative winnings. Again, been there, done that, crushed laying the draw before the inefficiency was corrected by the market.

Anyway, I've about exhausted my patience with this. Go ahead and have the last word about how we should be vig shopping instead of price shopping.

4 minutes ago, TEW said:

Line shopping? Shopping? Like where you buy something? At a price? You mean it's price that matters and not the vig? But why would I need to shop when low vig = better prices "across the board?"  

Right now, let's look at an example.

Pinny currently has the Dolphins 1.653 or -153 and the Jaguars 2.38 or +138 for a vig of 2.49%.

Bet365 has the Dolphins at -167 and the Jags at +145 for a vig of 3.36%.

But wait, Bet365 is giving you a better price on the Jags even though they have a ~50% higher vig! How can this possibly be? How can the WGB vig theory of everything possibly be wrong? Well, because WGB doesn't know what the hell he's talking about. Higher vig doesn't mean worse prices across the board. At all. In any way, shape or form. Pinny doesn't have the best prices. They have the most efficient prices. There is a big, big difference and it's what allows them to have a lower vig. If you want an edge, Pinny is the absolute last place you want to be betting regardless of how low their low vig might be. It's the hardest book to beat for a reason.

And FYI, you'd want to use betfair exchange as much as possible to arb because they do not have a straddle at all since it's an exchange with bettors acting as market makers/takers and they only charge commission on your cumulative winnings. Again, been there, done that, crushed laying the draw before the inefficiency was corrected by the market.

Anyway, I've about exhausted my patience with this. Go ahead and have the last word about how we should be vig shopping instead of price shopping.

I mentioned shopping in my first post and pointed out how variable it is. And like for the 5th time, the vig determines the price. It's not irrelevant, it's literally the most important factor in the long-run. And yes, pinny absolutely has the best prices generally speaking, like how are you arguing this if you've actually built a model that's supposedly getting you banned? Are you completely full of ish right now or what? 

Just now, we_gotta_believe said:

Like for the 5th time, the vig determines the price. It's not irrelevant, it's literally the most important factor in the long-run. And yes, pinny absolutely has the best prices generally speaking, like how are you arguing this if you've actually built a model that's supposedly getting you banned? Are you completely full of ish right now or what? 

Claim: Vig determines price

Fact 1: Pinny has lower vig than B365

Fact 2: B365 has better price than Pinny

Conclusion: Claim is invalid

Just now, TEW said:

Claim: Vig determines price

Fact 1: Pinny has lower vig than B365

Fact 2: B365 has better price than Pinny

Conclusion: Claim is invalid

Wow. Again, over the long run, pinny comes out on top. Pick 100 plays and pinny will have the best price more reliably for any given play than others books. Is your model making one play per year, or a couple hundred?

Just now, we_gotta_believe said:

Wow. Again, over the long run, pinny comes out on top. Pick 100 plays and pinny will have the best price more reliably for any given play than others books. Is your model making one play per year, or a couple hundred?

Wow indeed. No one who is a serious bettor is betting 100 random plays at one book. They bet where they have an edge. They have an edge where there is a great price. There is rarely a great price at Pinny. Because vig doesn't matter. If you're price shopping, as anyone with a clue would attempt to do, you would consistently find better prices elsewhere than Pinny.

More than a couple hundred. Multiple sports, mostly Baseball, Basketball and Soccer. Again, you end up at Pinny because the other places won't let you bet and Pinny is the only place that lets you scale. You get the best price you can like in any business and the best price on any given bet is very rarely at Pinny. Because vig doesn't determine price at all.